Enfermedad de Chagas: epidemiología de vectores y estrategias educativas para la vigilancia entomológica en áreas de riesgo del norte de la provincia de Córdoba. Chagas disease: epidemiology of vectors and educational strategies for entomological surveillance in risk areas of northern province of Cordoba.

La Enfermedad de Chagas es considerada en términos sociales y económicos, una de las enfermedades parasíticas más importantes de América Latina. La transmisión vectorial de esta enfermedad ha sido interrumpida en gran parte de América Latina sin embargo, el control vectorial no ha podido lograr la sostenibilidad y la efectividad necesarias para interrumpir la transmisión vectorial en la región del Gran Chaco de Argentina, Bolivia y Paraguay. La permanencia de poblaciones residuales de triatominos en estructuras peridomiciliarias permite una rápida recuperación del vector, sugiriéndose que estas poblaciones serían la principal fuente de reinfestación de la vivienda humana. Este escenario plantea por lo tanto la necesidad de estudiar con más profundidad las poblaciones de triatominos presentes en los peridomicilios para comprender su dispersión, capacidad de domiciliación y así entender el posible peligro que pueden presentar para el hombre como especies vectoras de la enfermedad de Chagas. Dentro de la provincia de Córdoba existen áreas que por la presencia histórica de triatomineos, la notificación reciente de casos de Chagas vectorial y el registro de especies silvestres invadiendo los domicilios merecen un estudio más profundo. Es por ello que se propone realizar un relevamiento de las especies de triatomineos que habitan los domicilios y peridomicilios en estas zonas, calcular los índices de infección con Trypanosoma cruzi que presentan, caracterizar su perfil alimentario, los factores de riesgo que favorecen su refugio, su capacidad dispersiva y diferenciar fenotípicamente entre las poblaciones peridomésticas para comprender mejor el posible peligro que pueden presentar para el hombre como especies vectoras de la enfermedad de Chagas. Además, y de manera complementaria, se aplicarán estrategias educativas en el ámbito escolar que sirvan para la vigilancia entomológica y acciones preventivas de la Enfermedad de Chagas. La determinación del perfil alimentario pautará la potencialidad de cada vector, siendo esta información fundamental para el análisis de situaciones epidemiológicas de riesgo. La capacidad dispersiva y la diferenciación fenotípica de las poblaciones permitirán conocer el posible movimiento y flujo de triatominos desde y hacia la vivienda humana. La determinación de los factores que favorecen el refugio de triatominos permitirá conocer el nivel de riesgo en que se encuentra cada domicilio. Además, considerando la importancia de las poblaciones peridomésticas en los procesos de reinfestación, se analizará la capacidad dispersiva que presentan los triatominos a través de su estado nutricional y, mediante la morfometría clásica y geométrica, se analizará como se estructura la diversidad fenotípica en los domicilios y peridomicilios. La aplicación de estrategias educativas en el ámbito escolar favorecerá el conocimiento en general de esta enfermedad, la vigilancia entomólogica y las acciones preventivas por parte de los niños en edad escolar. Chagas disease is considered socially and economically, one of the most important parasitic diseases in Latin America. Vector transmission of this disease has been interrupted in much of Latin America, however, vector control has failed to achieve sustainability and effectiveness necessary to interrupt the vector transmission in the Gran Chaco region of Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay. The permanence of residual populations of triatomine in the peridomiciliary structures enables fast recovery of the vector, suggesting that these populations would be the main source of reinfestation of human dwellings. Within the province of Córdoba, there are areas that the historical presence of triatomines, the recent notification of cases of Chagas vector and recording of wild species invading the homes deserve further study. That is why, there will be a survey of Triatominae species that inhabit the domiciles and peridomiciles in these areas, rates of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi, their host feeding preferences, the risk factors that favor its shelter, their dispersive capacity and phenotypic differentiation between peridomestic populations, to better understand the potential danger they may present to the man and vector species of Chagas disease. In addition, complementary, educational strategies in schools were implemented that serve for entomological surveillance and preventive actions of Chagas disease. The determination of the potential food profile patterns of each vector is essential for epidemiological analysis of risk situations. Dispersive capacity and phenotypic differentiation of populations may allow understanding the movement and flow of triatomines and from human habitation.

Data mining with graphical models

Data Mining, Learning from data, graphical models, possibility theory

Data-driven system identification via evolutionary retrieval of Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models

Systemidentification, evolutionary automatic, data-driven model, fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno grammar, genotype interpretability, toxicity-prediction

Models and methods for supporting lot sizing decisions in product recovery systems

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2011

Approximations of the Fisher information for the construction of efficient experimental designs in nonlinear mixed effects models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2012

Experimental design for mixed models with application to population pharmacokinetic studies

experimental design, mixed model, random coefficient regression model, population pharmacokinetics, approximate design

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Optimal designs for mixed effects poisson regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2010

Prevalence of Risk for Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome and Association With Risk Factors in Primary Care

Abstract Background: Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) is a chronic, progressive disease with high morbidity and mortality. It is underdiagnosed, especially among women. Objective: To study the prevalence of high risk for OSAS globally and for the Berlin Questionnaire (BQ) categories, and to evaluate the reliability of the BQ use in the population studied. Methods: Observational, cross-sectional study with individuals from the Niterói Family Doctor Program, randomly selected, aged between 45 and 99 years. The visits occurred between August/2011 and December/2012. Variables associated with each BQ category and with high risk for OSAS (global) were included in logistic regression models (p < 0.05). Results: Of the total (616), 403 individuals (65.4%) reported snoring. The prevalence of high risk for OSA was 42.4%, being 49.7% for category I, 10.2% for category II and 77.6% for category III. Conclusion: BQ showed an acceptable reliability after excluding the questions Has anyone noticed that you stop breathing during your sleep? and Have you ever dozed off or fallen asleep while driving?. This should be tested in further studies with samples mostly comprised of women and low educational level individuals. Given the burden of OSAS-related diseases and risks, studies should be conducted to validate new tools and to adapt BQ to better screen OSAS.

Simulation of interacting populations in inhomogeneous flows using reduced models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2010

Conversive Hidden non-Markovian models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2012

Analysis and numerical investigation of dynamic models for liquid chromatography

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2013

Optimal designs for multivariate linear models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2013

Mathematical models of influenza A virus infection : from intracellular replication to virus growth in cell populations

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2015

Optimal designs for the prediction in hierarchical random coefficient regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2015