Policy mixes for resource efficiency – conceptual issues, design and assessment challenges

Since the 1950s the global consumption of natural resources has skyrocketed, both in magnitude and in the range of resources used. Closely coupled with emissions of greenhouse gases, land consumption, pollution of environmental media, and degradation of ecosystems, as well as with economic development, increasing resource use is a key issue to be addressed in order to keep the planet Earth in a safe and just operating space. This requires thinking about absolute reductions in resource use and associated environmental impacts, and, when put in the context of current re-focusing on economic growth at the European level, absolute decoupling, i.e., maintaining economic development while absolutely reducing resource use and associated environmental impacts. Changing behavioural, institutional and organisational structures that lock-in unsustainable resource use is, thus, a formidable challenge as existing world views, social practices, infrastructures, as well as power structures, make initiating change difficult. Hence, policy mixes are needed that will target different drivers in a systematic way. When designing policy mixes for decoupling, the effect of individual instruments on other drivers and on other instruments in a mix should be considered and potential negative effects be mitigated. This requires smart and time-dynamic policy packaging. This Special Issue investigates the following research questions: What is decoupling and how does it relate to resource efficiency and environmental policy? How can we develop and realize policy mixes for decoupling economic development from resource use and associated environmental impacts? And how can we do this in a systemic way, so that all relevant dimensions and linkages—including across economic and social issues, such as production, consumption, transport, growth and wellbeing­—are taken into account? In addressing these questions, the overarching goals of this Special Issue are to: address the challenges related to more sustainable resource-use; contribute to the development of successful policy tools and practices for sustainable development and resource efficiency (particularly through the exploration of socio-economic, scientific, and integrated aspects of sustainable development); and inform policy debates and policy-making. The Special Issue draws on findings from the EU and other countries to offer lessons of international relevance for policy mixes for more sustainable resource-use, with findings of interest to policy makers in central and local government and NGOs, decision makers in business, academics, researchers, and scientists.

Sepsis: the LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE®, SepsiTest™ and IRIDICA BAC BSI assay for rapidly identifying bloodstream bacteria and fungi – a systematic review and economic evaluation

Background: Sepsis can lead to multiple organ failure and death. Timely and appropriate treatment can reduce in-hospital mortality and morbidity. Objectives: To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three tests [LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE® (Roche Diagnostics, Risch-Rotkreuz, Switzerland); SepsiTest™ (Molzym Molecular Diagnostics, Bremen, Germany); and the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay (Abbott Diagnostics, Lake Forest, IL, USA)] for the rapid identification of bloodstream bacteria and fungi in patients with suspected sepsis compared with standard practice (blood culture with or without matrix-absorbed laser desorption/ionisation time-offlight mass spectrometry). Data sources: Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library) were searched from January 2006 to May 2015 and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles. Review methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of effectiveness studies were conducted. A review of published economic analyses was undertaken and a de novo health economic model was constructed. A decision tree was used to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with each test; all other parameters were estimated from published sources. The model was populated with evidence from the systematic review or individual studies, if this was considered more appropriate (base case 1). In a secondary analysis, estimates (based on experience and opinion) from seven clinicians regarding the benefits of earlier test results were sought (base case 2). A NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was taken, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Scenario analyses were used to assess uncertainty. Results: For the review of diagnostic test accuracy, 62 studies of varying methodological quality were included. A meta-analysis of 54 studies comparing SeptiFast with blood culture found that SeptiFast had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0.84 to 0.89] and sensitivity of 0.65 (95% CrI 0.60 to 0.71). Four studies comparing SepsiTest with blood culture found that SepsiTest had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 (95% CrI 0.78 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.48 (95% CrI 0.21 to 0.74), and four studies comparing IRIDICA with blood culture found that IRIDICA had an estimated summary specificity of 0.84 (95% CrI 0.71 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CrI 0.69 to 0.90). Owing to the deficiencies in study quality for all interventions, diagnostic accuracy data should be treated with caution. No randomised clinical trial evidence was identified that indicated that any of the tests significantly improved key patient outcomes, such as mortality or duration in an intensive care unit or hospital. Base case 1 estimated that none of the three tests provided a benefit to patients compared with standard practice and thus all tests were dominated. In contrast, in base case 2 it was estimated that all cost per QALY-gained values were below £20,000; the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay had the highest estimated incremental net benefit, but results from base case 2 should be treated with caution as these are not evidence based. Limitations: Robust data to accurately assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions are currently unavailable. Conclusions: The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions cannot be reliably determined with the current evidence base. Appropriate studies, which allow information from the tests to be implemented in clinical practice, are required.

Physical internet-enabled hyperconnected distribution assessment

L’Internet Physique (IP) est une initiative qui identifie plusieurs symptômes d’inefficacité et non-durabilité des systèmes logistiques et les traite en proposant un nouveau paradigme appelé logistique hyperconnectée. Semblable à l’Internet Digital, qui relie des milliers de réseaux d’ordinateurs personnels et locaux, IP permettra de relier les systèmes logistiques fragmentés actuels. Le but principal étant d’améliorer la performance des systèmes logistiques des points de vue économique, environnemental et social. Se concentrant spécifiquement sur les systèmes de distribution, cette thèse remet en question l’ordre de magnitude du gain de performances en exploitant la distribution hyperconnectée habilitée par IP. Elle concerne également la caractérisation de la planification de la distribution hyperconnectée. Pour répondre à la première question, une approche de la recherche exploratoire basée sur la modélisation de l’optimisation est appliquée, où les systèmes de distribution actuels et potentiels sont modélisés. Ensuite, un ensemble d’échantillons d’affaires réalistes sont créé, et leurs performances économique et environnementale sont évaluées en ciblant de multiples performances sociales. Un cadre conceptuel de planification, incluant la modélisation mathématique est proposé pour l’aide à la prise de décision dans des systèmes de distribution hyperconnectée. Partant des résultats obtenus par notre étude, nous avons démontré qu’un gain substantiel peut être obtenu en migrant vers la distribution hyperconnectée. Nous avons également démontré que l’ampleur du gain varie en fonction des caractéristiques des activités et des performances sociales ciblées. Puisque l’Internet physique est un sujet nouveau, le Chapitre 1 présente brièvement l’IP et hyper connectivité. Le Chapitre 2 discute les fondements, l’objectif et la méthodologie de la recherche. Les défis relevés au cours de cette recherche sont décrits et le type de contributions visés est mis en évidence. Le Chapitre 3 présente les modèles d’optimisation. Influencés par les caractéristiques des systèmes de distribution actuels et potentiels, trois modèles fondés sur le système de distribution sont développés. Chapitre 4 traite la caractérisation des échantillons d’affaires ainsi que la modélisation et le calibrage des paramètres employés dans les modèles. Les résultats de la recherche exploratoire sont présentés au Chapitre 5. Le Chapitre 6 décrit le cadre conceptuel de planification de la distribution hyperconnectée. Le chapitre 7 résume le contenu de la thèse et met en évidence les contributions principales. En outre, il identifie les limites de la recherche et les avenues potentielles de recherches futures.

A social-ecological impact assessment for public lands management: application of a conceptual and methodological framework

According to the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA), federal action to manipulate habitat for species conservation requires an environmental impact statement, which should integrate natural, physical, economic, and social sciences in planning and decision making. Nonetheless, most impact assessments focus disproportionately on physical or ecological impacts rather than integrating ecological and socioeconomic components. We developed a participatory social-ecological impact assessment (SEIA) that addresses the requirements of NEPA and integrates social and ecological concepts for impact assessments. We cooperated with the Bureau of Land Management in Idaho, USA on a project designed to restore habitat for the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). We employed questionnaires, workshop dialogue, and participatory mapping exercises with stakeholders to identify potential environmental changes and subsequent impacts expected to result from the removal of western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis). Via questionnaires and workshop dialogue, stakeholders identified 46 environmental changes and associated positive or negative impacts to people and communities in Owyhee County, Idaho. Results of the participatory mapping exercises showed that the spatial distribution of social, economic, and ecological values throughout Owyhee County are highly associated with the two main watersheds, wilderness areas, and the historic town of Silver City. Altogether, the SEIA process revealed that perceptions of project scale varied among participants, highlighting the need for specificity about spatial and temporal scales. Overall, the SEIA generated substantial information concerning potential impacts associated with habitat treatments for Greater Sage-Grouse. The SEIA is transferable to other land management and conservation contexts because it supports holistic understanding and framing of connections between humans and ecosystems. By applying this SEIA framework, land managers and affected people have an opportunity to fulfill NEPA requirements and develop more comprehensive management plans that better reflect the linkages of social-ecological systems.

Older Adult Injury Risk Assessment in the Driving and Occupational Environments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Assessment of toxigenic fungi in poultry feed

Introduction - Feed supplies the necessary nutrients for the growth of healthy animals, which are a part of the human diet. The presence of toxigenic fungi in animal feed such as Aspergillus spp. may contribute to 1) the loss of nutritional value of feedstuff, since fungi will assimilate the most readily available nutrients present in the feed, and 2) the development of mycotoxicoses and chronic conditions, which can raise economic issues due to animal disease and contamination of animal derived products. Aim of the study - The goal of this work was to evaluate the incidence of Aspergilli, particularly from the Circumdati, Flavi and Fumigati sections, through real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) in 11 feed samples.

Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental evaluation of concentrated solar power plants in Libya

The PhD project addresses the potential of using concentrating solar power (CSP) plants as a viable alternative energy producing system in Libya. Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental analyses are carried out for a particular type of CSP plants. The study, although it aims a particular type of CSP plant – 50 MW parabolic trough-CSP plant, it is sufficiently general to be applied to other configurations. The novelty of the study, in addition to modeling and analyzing the selected configuration, lies in the use of a state-of-the-art exergetic analysis combined with the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The modeling and simulation of the plant is carried out in chapter three and they are conducted into two parts, namely: power cycle and solar field. The computer model developed for the analysis of the plant is based on algebraic equations describing the power cycle and the solar field. The model was solved using the Engineering Equation Solver (EES) software; and is designed to define the properties at each state point of the plant and then, sequentially, to determine energy, efficiency and irreversibility for each component. The developed model has the potential of using in the preliminary design of CSPs and, in particular, for the configuration of the solar field based on existing commercial plants. Moreover, it has the ability of analyzing the energetic, economic and environmental feasibility of using CSPs in different regions of the world, which is illustrated for the Libyan region in this study. The overall feasibility scenario is completed through an hourly analysis on an annual basis in chapter Four. This analysis allows the comparison of different systems and, eventually, a particular selection, and it includes both the economic and energetic components using the “greenius” software. The analysis also examined the impact of project financing and incentives on the cost of energy. The main technological finding of this analysis is higher performance and lower levelized cost of electricity (LCE) for Libya as compared to Southern Europe (Spain). Therefore, Libya has the potential of becoming attractive for the establishment of CSPs in its territory and, in this way, to facilitate the target of several European initiatives that aim to import electricity generated by renewable sources from North African and Middle East countries. The analysis is presented a brief review of the current cost of energy and the potential of reducing the cost from parabolic trough- CSP plant. Exergetic and environmental life cycle assessment analyses are conducted for the selected plant in chapter Five; the objectives are 1) to assess the environmental impact and cost, in terms of exergy of the life cycle of the plant; 2) to find out the points of weakness in terms of irreversibility of the process; and 3) to verify whether solar power plants can reduce environmental impact and the cost of electricity generation by comparing them with fossil fuel plants, in particular, Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plant and oil thermal power plant. The analysis also targets a thermoeconomic analysis using the specific exergy costing (SPECO) method to evaluate the level of the cost caused by exergy destruction. The main technological findings are that the most important contribution impact lies with the solar field, which reports a value of 79%; and the materials with the vi highest impact are: steel (47%), molten salt (25%) and synthetic oil (21%). The “Human Health” damage category presents the highest impact (69%) followed by the “Resource” damage category (24%). In addition, the highest exergy demand is linked to the steel (47%); and there is a considerable exergetic demand related to the molten salt and synthetic oil with values of 25% and 19%, respectively. Finally, in the comparison with fossil fuel power plants (NGCC and Oil), the CSP plant presents the lowest environmental impact, while the worst environmental performance is reported to the oil power plant followed by NGCC plant. The solar field presents the largest value of cost rate, where the boiler is a component with the highest cost rate among the power cycle components. The thermal storage allows the CSP plants to overcome solar irradiation transients, to respond to electricity demand independent of weather conditions, and to extend electricity production beyond the availability of daylight. Numerical analysis of the thermal transient response of a thermocline storage tank is carried out for the charging phase. The system of equations describing the numerical model is solved by using time-implicit and space-backward finite differences and which encoded within the Matlab environment. The analysis presented the following findings: the predictions agree well with the experiments for the time evolution of the thermocline region, particularly for the regions away from the top-inlet. The deviations observed in the near-region of the inlet are most likely due to the high-level of turbulence in this region due to the localized level of mixing resulting; a simple analytical model to take into consideration this increased turbulence level was developed and it leads to some improvement of the predictions; this approach requires practically no additional computational effort and it relates the effective thermal diffusivity to the mean effective velocity of the fluid at each particular height of the system. Altogether the study indicates that the selected parabolic trough-CSP plant has the edge over alternative competing technologies for locations where DNI is high and where land usage is not an issue, such as the shoreline of Libya.

A national coastal erosion risk assessment for Scotland

The geography of Scotland, with a highly undulating hinterland, long and indented coastline, together with a large number of islands, means that much social and economic activity is largely located at the coast. The importance of the coast is further highlighted by the large number of ecosystem services derived from the coast. The threat posed by climate change, particularly current and future sea level rise, is of considerable concern and the associated coastal erosion and coastal flooding has the potential to have a substantial effect on the socioeconomic activity of the whole country. Currently, the knowledge base of coastal erosion is poor, which serves to hinder the current and future management of the coast. This research reported here aimed to establish four key aspects of coastal erosion within Scotland: the physical susceptibility of the coast to erosion; the assets exposed to coastal erosion; the vulnerability of communities to coastal erosion; and the coastal erosion risk to those communities. Coastal erosion susceptibility was modelled here within a GIS, using data for ground elevation, rockhead elevation, wave exposure and proximity to the open coast. Combining these data produced the Underlying Physical Susceptibility Model (UPSM), in the form of a 50 m2 raster of national coverage. The Coastal Erosion Susceptibility Model (CESM) was produced with the addition of sediment supply and coastal defence data, which then moderates the outputs of the UPSM. Asset data for dwellings, key assets, transport infrastructure, historic assets, and natural assets were used along with the UPSM and CESM to assess their degree of exposure to coastal erosion. A Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Model (CEVM) was produced using Experian Mosaic Scotland (a geodemographic classification which identifies 44 different social groups within Scotland) to classify populations based upon 11 vulnerability variables. Dwellings were assigned a CESM and CEVM score in order to establish their coastal erosion risk. This research demonstrated that the issue of coastal erosion will impact on a relatively low number of properties compared to those impacted by flooding (both coastal and fluvial) as many dwellings are already protected by coastal defences. There is therefore, a considerable future liability, and great pressure for coastal defences to be maintained and upgraded in their current form. The use of the CEVM is a novel inclusion within a coastal erosion assessment for Scotland. Use of the CEVM established that coastal erosion risk is not distributed equally amongst the Scottish coastal population and highlighted that risk can be reduced by either reducing exposure or reducing vulnerability. Thus far in Scotland, reducing exposure has been the primary management approach, which has a number of implications with regards social justice. This research identified the existing data gaps that should be addressed by future research in order to further improve coastal management in Scotland. Future research should focus on assessing historical coastal change rates on a national scale, improve modelling of national scale wave exposure, enhance the information held about current coastal defences and, determine the direct and indirect economic cost associated with the loss of different asset types. It is also necessary to clarify the social justice implications of using adaptation approaches to manage coastal erosion as well as establishing a method to communicate the susceptibility, exposure, vulnerability and risk aspects whilst minimising the potential negative impacts (e.g. property blight) of releasing such information.

Catch assessment survey of Uganda waters

The Artisanal Fisheries Rehabilitation Project (AFRP) Uganda Freshwater Fisheries Research Organisation (UFFRO) Survey was conducted during January - March 1989. The aim of the survey was to evaluate the impact of the AFRP on the national fisheries, assessing the current catch levels, and determining the socio-economic position of the fishermen. On the catch assessment, the survey collected information more specifically on the following: (i) Fish production in Uganda by major species groups. (li) Size structure of the harvested fish. (iii) Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for the major fish species.

Final report of the fisheries catch assessment survey in the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria for the May 2014 survey

This report presents findings of the CAS conducted in the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria in December 2015. The results of the previous thirteen harmonized CASs conducted since July 2005 (July, August, September and November 2005; in March, August and December 2006; in March and August 2007; in February and December 2008; March 2010; May 2011 and May 2014) are included to show the emerging trends. The report also presents annual catch estimates for the Ugandan part of the lake from 2005 to 2015. This information together with other fish stock assessment and socio-economic monitoring survey data can now be utilized in the planning and management of the fisheries resources of Lake Victoria. The 2014 CAS results were very vital in the development of the Lake Victoria Fisheries Management Plan 2014.

A cyber exercise post assessment framework: In Malaysia perspectives

Critical infrastructures are based on complex systems that provide vital services to the nation. The complexities of the interconnected networks, each managed by individual organisations, if not properly secured, could offer vulnerabilities that threaten other organisations’ systems that depend on their services. This thesis argues that the awareness of interdependencies among critical sectors needs to be increased. Managing and securing critical infrastructure is not isolated responsibility of a government or an individual organisation. There is a need for a strong collaboration among critical service providers of public and private organisations in protecting critical information infrastructure. Cyber exercises have been incorporated in national cyber security strategies as part of critical information infrastructure protection. However, organising a cyber exercise involved multi sectors is challenging due to the diversity of participants’ background, working environments and incidents response policies. How well the lessons learned from the cyber exercise and how it can be transferred to the participating organisations is still a looming question. In order to understand the implications of cyber exercises on what participants have learnt and how it benefits participants’ organisation, a Cyber Exercise Post Assessment (CEPA) framework was proposed in this research. The CEPA framework consists of two parts. The first part aims to investigate the lessons learnt by participants from a cyber exercise using the four levels of the Kirkpatrick Training Model to identify their perceptions on reaction, learning, behaviour and results of the exercise. The second part investigates the Organisation Cyber Resilience (OCR) of participating sectors. The framework was used to study the impact of the cyber exercise called X Maya in Malaysia. Data collected through interviews with X Maya 5 participants were coded and categorised based on four levels according to the Kirkpatrick Training Model, while online surveys distributed to ten Critical National Information Infrastructure (CNII) sectors participated in the exercise. The survey used the C-Suite Executive Checklist developed by World Economic Forum in 2012. To ensure the suitability of the tool used to investigate the OCR, a reliability test conducted on the survey items showed high internal consistency results. Finally, individual OCR scores were used to develop the OCR Maturity Model to provide the organisation cyber resilience perspectives of the ten CNII sectors.

Technology assessment in Non-PTA countries: an overview of recent developments in Europe

Paper based on the text to be published in Moniz, A.B. and Okuwada, K. (2016), Technology Assessment in Japan and Europe, Karlsruhe, KIT Scientific Publishing

Long-term relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Latin America: an empirical assessment using panel data

The main objetive of this research is to evaluate the long term relationship between energy consumption and GDP for some Latin American countries in the period 1980-2009 -- The estimation has been done through the non-stationary panel approach, using the production function in order to control other sources of GDP variation, such as capital and labor -- In addition to this, a panel unit root tests are used in order to identify the non-stationarity of these variables, followed by the application of panel cointegration test proposed by Pedroni (2004) to avoid a spurious regression (Entorf, 1997; Kao, 1999)

Does therapeutic writing help people with long-term conditions? Systematic review, realist synthesis and economic considerations

Background Writing therapy to improve physical or mental health can take many forms. The most researched model of therapeutic writing (TW) is unfacilitated, individual expressive writing (written emotional disclosure). Facilitated writing activities are less widely researched. Data sources Databases including: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, Linguistics and Language Behavior Abstracts, AMED, and CINHAL were searched from inception to March 2013. Review methods Four TW practitioners provided expert advice. Study procedures were conducted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised comparative studies were included. Quality was appraised using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Unfacilitated and facilitated TW studies were analysed separately under ICD-10 chapter headings. Meta-analyses were performed where possible using Revman 5.2. Costs were estimated from an NHS perspective and three cost-consequence case studies were prepared. Realist synthesis followed RAMESES guidelines. Objectives To review the clinical and cost-effectiveness of TW for people with long-term health conditions (LTCs) compared to no writing, or other controls, reporting any relevant clinical outcomes. To conduct a realist synthesis to understand how TW might work, and for whom. Results From 14,658 unique citations, 284 full text papers were reviewed and 64 studies (58 RCTs) were included in the final effectiveness reviews. Five studies examined facilitated TW, these were extremely heterogeneous with unclear or high risk of bias, but suggested that facilitated TW interventions may be beneficial in individual LTCs. Unfacilitated expressive writing was examined in 59 studies of variable, or unreported, quality. Overall there was very little or no evidence of any benefit reported in the following conditions (number of studies): HIV (six); breast cancer (eight); gynaecological and genitourinary cancers (five); mental health (five); asthma (four); psoriasis (three); chronic pain (four). In inflammatory arthropathies (six) there was a reduction in disease severity (n= 191, standardised mean difference (SMD) - 0.61 [95% confidence intervals (95% CI) -0.96, -0.26]) in the short term on meta-analysis of four studies. For all other LTCs there was either no, or sparse, data with no, or inconsistent, evidence of benefit. Meta-analyses conducted across all the LTCs provided no evidence that unfacilitated EW had any effect on depression at short term (n= 1,563, SMD -0.06, 95% CI -0.29 to 0.17, substantial heterogeneity), or long term (n= 778, SMD-0.04 95% CI -0.18 to 0.10, little heterogeneity) follow up, or on anxiety, physiological or biomarker-based outcomes. One study reported costs, none reported cost-effectiveness, twelve reported resource use; meta-analysis suggested reduced medication use but no impact on health centre visits. Estimated costs of intervention were low, but there was insufficient evidence to judge cost-effectiveness. Realist review findings suggested that facilitated TW is a complex intervention and group interaction contributes to the perception of benefit. It was unclear from the available data who might benefit most from facilitated TW. Limitations Difficulties with developing realist review programme theory meant that mechanisms operating during TW remain obscure. Conclusions Overall there is little evidence to support the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of unfacilitated expressive writing interventions in people with LTCs. Further research focussed on facilitated TW in people with LTCs could be informative.