Assessing the use of very high resolution data to predict species distribution in a mountain environment

Nowadays, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are a widely used tool. Using different statistical approaches these models reconstruct the realized niche of a species using presence data and a set of variables, often topoclimatic. There utilization range is quite large from understanding single species requirements, to the creation of nature reserve based on species hotspots, or modeling of climate change impact, etc... Most of the time these models are using variables at a resolution of 50km x 50km or 1 km x 1 km. However in some cases these models are used with resolutions below the kilometer scale and thus called high resolution models (100 m x 100 m or 25 m x 25 m). Quite recently a new kind of data has emerged enabling precision up to lm x lm and thus allowing very high resolution modeling. However these new variables are very costly and need an important amount of time to be processed. This is especially the case when these variables are used in complex calculation like models projections over large areas. Moreover the importance of very high resolution data in SDMs has not been assessed yet and is not well understood. Some basic knowledge on what drive species presence-absences is still missing. Indeed, it is not clear whether in mountain areas like the Alps coarse topoclimatic gradients are driving species distributions or if fine scale temperature or topography are more important or if their importance can be neglected when balance to competition or stochasticity. In this thesis I investigated the importance of very high resolution data (2-5m) in species distribution models using either very high resolution topographic, climatic or edaphic variables over a 2000m elevation gradient in the Western Swiss Alps. I also investigated more local responses of these variables for a subset of species living in this area at two precise elvation belts. During this thesis I showed that high resolution data necessitates very good datasets (species and variables for the models) to produce satisfactory results. Indeed, in mountain areas, temperature is the most important factor driving species distribution and needs to be modeled at very fine resolution instead of being interpolated over large surface to produce satisfactory results. Despite the instinctive idea that topographic should be very important at high resolution, results are mitigated. However looking at the importance of variables over a large gradient buffers the importance of the variables. Indeed topographic factors have been shown to be highly important at the subalpine level but their importance decrease at lower elevations. Wether at the mountane level edaphic and land use factors are more important high resolution topographic data is more imporatant at the subalpine level. Finally the biggest improvement in the models happens when edaphic variables are added. Indeed, adding soil variables is of high importance and variables like pH are overpassing the usual topographic variables in SDMs in term of importance in the models. To conclude high resolution is very important in modeling but necessitate very good datasets. Only increasing the resolution of the usual topoclimatic predictors is not sufficient and the use of edaphic predictors has been highlighted as fundamental to produce significantly better models. This is of primary importance, especially if these models are used to reconstruct communities or as basis for biodiversity assessments. -- Ces dernières années, l'utilisation des modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) a continuellement augmenté. Ces modèles utilisent différents outils statistiques afin de reconstruire la niche réalisée d'une espèce à l'aide de variables, notamment climatiques ou topographiques, et de données de présence récoltées sur le terrain. Leur utilisation couvre de nombreux domaines allant de l'étude de l'écologie d'une espèce à la reconstruction de communautés ou à l'impact du réchauffement climatique. La plupart du temps, ces modèles utilisent des occur-rences issues des bases de données mondiales à une résolution plutôt large (1 km ou même 50 km). Certaines bases de données permettent cependant de travailler à haute résolution, par conséquent de descendre en dessous de l'échelle du kilomètre et de travailler avec des résolutions de 100 m x 100 m ou de 25 m x 25 m. Récemment, une nouvelle génération de données à très haute résolution est apparue et permet de travailler à l'échelle du mètre. Les variables qui peuvent être générées sur la base de ces nouvelles données sont cependant très coûteuses et nécessitent un temps conséquent quant à leur traitement. En effet, tout calcul statistique complexe, comme des projections de distribution d'espèces sur de larges surfaces, demande des calculateurs puissants et beaucoup de temps. De plus, les facteurs régissant la distribution des espèces à fine échelle sont encore mal connus et l'importance de variables à haute résolution comme la microtopographie ou la température dans les modèles n'est pas certaine. D'autres facteurs comme la compétition ou la stochasticité naturelle pourraient avoir une influence toute aussi forte. C'est dans ce contexte que se situe mon travail de thèse. J'ai cherché à comprendre l'importance de la haute résolution dans les modèles de distribution d'espèces, que ce soit pour la température, la microtopographie ou les variables édaphiques le long d'un important gradient d'altitude dans les Préalpes vaudoises. J'ai également cherché à comprendre l'impact local de certaines variables potentiellement négligées en raison d'effets confondants le long du gradient altitudinal. Durant cette thèse, j'ai pu monter que les variables à haute résolution, qu'elles soient liées à la température ou à la microtopographie, ne permettent qu'une amélioration substantielle des modèles. Afin de distinguer une amélioration conséquente, il est nécessaire de travailler avec des jeux de données plus importants, tant au niveau des espèces que des variables utilisées. Par exemple, les couches climatiques habituellement interpolées doivent être remplacées par des couches de température modélisées à haute résolution sur la base de données de terrain. Le fait de travailler le long d'un gradient de température de 2000m rend naturellement la température très importante au niveau des modèles. L'importance de la microtopographie est négligeable par rapport à la topographie à une résolution de 25m. Cependant, lorsque l'on regarde à une échelle plus locale, la haute résolution est une variable extrêmement importante dans le milieu subalpin. À l'étage montagnard par contre, les variables liées aux sols et à l'utilisation du sol sont très importantes. Finalement, les modèles de distribution d'espèces ont été particulièrement améliorés par l'addition de variables édaphiques, principalement le pH, dont l'importance supplante ou égale les variables topographique lors de leur ajout aux modèles de distribution d'espèces habituels.

Modeling and manufacturability assessment of bistable quantum-dot cells

We have investigated the behavior of bistable cells made up of four quantum dots and occupied by two electrons, in the presence of realistic confinement potentials produced by depletion gates on top of a GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructure. Such a cell represents the basic building block for logic architectures based on the concept of quantum cellular automata (QCA) and of ground state computation, which have been proposed as an alternative to traditional transistor-based logic circuits. We have focused on the robustness of the operation of such cells with respect to asymmetries derived from fabrication tolerances. We have developed a two-dimensional model for the calculation of the electron density in a driven cell in response to the polarization state of a driver cell. Our method is based on the one-shot configuration-interaction technique, adapted from molecular chemistry. From the results of our simulations, we conclude that an implementation of QCA logic based on simple ¿hole arrays¿ is not feasible, because of the extreme sensitivity to fabrication tolerances. As an alternative, we propose cells defined by multiple gates, where geometrical asymmetries can be compensated for by adjusting the bias voltages. Even though not immediately applicable to the implementation of logic gates and not suitable for large scale integration, the proposed cell layout should allow an experimental demonstration of a chain of QCA cells.

Association of car ownership and physical activity across the spectrum of human development : Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS).

BACKGROUND: Variations in physical activity (PA) across nations may be driven by socioeconomic position. As national incomes increase, car ownership becomes within reach of more individuals. This report characterizes associations between car ownership and PA in African-origin populations across 5 sites at different levels of economic development and with different transportation infrastructures: US, Seychelles, Jamaica, South Africa, and Ghana. METHODS: Twenty-five hundred adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study. A total of 2,101 subjects had valid accelerometer-based PA measures (reported as average daily duration of moderate to vigorous PA, MVPA) and complete socioeconomic information. Our primary exposure of interest was whether the household owned a car. We adjusted for socioeconomic position using household income and ownership of common goods. RESULTS: Overall, PA levels did not vary largely between sites, with highest levels in South Africa, lowest in the US. Across all sites, greater PA was consistently associated with male gender, fewer years of education, manual occupations, lower income, and owning fewer material goods. We found heterogeneity across sites in car ownership: after adjustment for confounders, car owners in the US had 24.3 fewer minutes of MVPA compared to non-car owners in the US (20.7 vs. 45.1 minutes/day of MVPA); in the non-US sites, car-owners had an average of 9.7 fewer minutes of MVPA than non-car owners (24.9 vs. 34.6 minutes/day of MVPA). CONCLUSIONS: PA levels are similar across all study sites except Jamaica, despite very different levels of socioeconomic development. Not owning a car in the US is associated with especially high levels of MVPA. As car ownership becomes prevalent in the developing world, strategies to promote alternative forms of active transit may become important.

Combining niche modelling and landscape genetics to study local adaptation: A novel approach illustrated using alpine plants

Understanding the factors that shape adaptive genetic variation across species niches has become of paramount importance in evolutionary ecology, especially to understand how adaptation to changing climate affects the geographic range of species. The distribution of adaptive alleles in the ecological niche is determined by the emergence of novel mutations, their fitness consequences and gene flow that connects populations across species niches. Striking demographical differences and source sink dynamics of populations between the centre and the margin of the niche can play a major role in the emergence and spread of adaptive alleles. Although some theoretical predictions have long been proposed, the origin and distribution of adaptive alleles within species niches remain untested. In this paper, we propose and discuss a novel empirical approach that combines landscape genetics with species niche modelling, to test whether alleles that confer local adaptation are more likely to occur in either marginal or central populations of species niches. We illustrate this new approach by using a published data set of 21 alpine plant species genotyped with a total of 2483 amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP), distributed over more than 1733 sampling sites across the Alps. Based on the assumption that alleles that were statistically associated with environmental variables were adaptive, we found that adaptive alleles in the margin of a species niche were also present in the niche centre, which suggests that adaptation originates in the niche centre. These findings corroborate models of species range evolution, in which the centre of the niche contributes to the emergence of novel adaptive alleles, which diffuse towards niche margins and facilitate niche and range expansion through subsequent local adaptation. Although these results need to be confirmed via fitness measurements in natural populations and functionally characterised genetic sequences, this study provides a first step towards understanding how adaptive genetic variation emerges and shapes species niches and geographic ranges along environmental gradients.

Discrete distributions when modeling the disability severity score of motor victims

Many European states apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and thus also reflects the compensation cost for disability. In this paper, discrete regression models are applied to analyze the factors that influence the disability severity score of victims. Standard and zero-altered regression models are compared from two perspectives: an interpretation of the data generating process and the level of statistical fit. The results have implications for traffic safety policy decisions aimed at reducing accident severity. An application using data from Spain is provided.

The internal wave field in Sau reservoir : Observation and modeling of a third vertical mode

Water withdrawal from Mediterranean reservoirs in summer is usually very high. Because of this, stratification is often continuous and far from the typical two-layered structure, favoring the excitation of higher vertical modes. The analysis of wind, temperature, and current data from Sau reservoir (Spain) shows that the third vertical mode of the internal seiche (baroclinic mode) dominated the internal wave field at the beginning of September 2003. We used a continuous stratification two-dimensional model to calculate the period and velocity distribution of the various modes of the internal seiche, and we calculated that the period of the third vertical mode is ;24 h, which coincides with the period of the dominating winds. As a result of the resonance between the third mode and the wind, the other oscillation modes were not excited during this period

A matter of scale: apparent niche differentiation of diploid and tetraploid plants may depend on extent and grain of analysis

Aim: Emerging polyploids may depend on environmental niche shifts for successful establishment. Using the alpine plant Ranunculus kuepferi as a model system, we explore the niche shift hypothesis at different spatial resolutions and in contrasting parts of the species range. Location: European Alps. Methods: We sampled 12 individuals from each of 102 populations of R. kuepferi across the Alps, determined their ploidy levels, derived coarse-grain (100x100m) environmental descriptors for all sampling sites by downscaling WorldClim maps, and calculated fine-scale environmental descriptors (2x2m) from indicator values of the vegetation accompanying the sampled individuals. Both coarse and fine-scale variables were further computed for 8239 vegetation plots from across the Alps. Subsequently, we compared niche optima and breadths of diploid and tetraploid cytotypes by combining principal components analysis and kernel smoothing procedures. Comparisons were done separately for coarse and fine-grain data sets and for sympatric, allopatric and the total set of populations. Results: All comparisons indicate that the niches of the two cytotypes differ in optima and/or breadths, but results vary in important details. The whole-range analysis suggests differentiation along the temperature gradient to be most important. However, sympatric comparisons indicate that this climatic shift was not a direct response to competition with diploid ancestors. Moreover, fine-grained analyses demonstrate niche contraction of tetraploids, especially in the sympatric range, that goes undetected with coarse-grained data. Main conclusions: Although the niche optima of the two cytotypes differ, separation along ecological gradients was probably less decisive for polyploid establishment than a shift towards facultative apomixis, a particularly effective strategy to avoid minority cytotype exclusion. In addition, our results suggest that coarse-grained analyses overestimate niche breadths of widely distributed taxa. Niche comparison analyses should hence be conducted at environmental data resolutions appropriate for the organism and question under study.

Will climate change increase the risk of plant invasions into mountains?

Mountain ecosystems have been less adversely affected by invasions of non-native plants than most other ecosystems, partially because most invasive plants in the lowlands are limited by climate and cannot grow under harsher high-elevation conditions. However, with ongoing climate change, invasive species may rapidly move upwards and threaten mid- then high-elevation mountain ecosystems. We evaluated this threat by predicting current and future potential distributions of 48 invasive plant species distributed in Switzerland (CH) and New South Wales (NSW), two areas where climate interacts differently with the elevation gradient. Using a species distribution modeling approach combining two scales, which builds on high-resolution data (< 250 m) but accounts for the global climatic niche of species, we found that different environmental drivers limit the elevation range of invasive species in the two regions, leading to region-specific species responses to climate change. Whereas the optimal suitability for plant invaders is predicted to markedly shift from the lowland to the montane or subalpine zone in CH, such an upward shift is far less pronounced in NSW where montane and subalpine elevations are currently already suitable. Non-native species able to invade the upper reaches of mountains in a future climate will be cold-tolerant in the Swiss Alps but preferring wet soils in the Australian Alps. Other plant traits were only marginally associated with elevation limits. These results demonstrate that a more systematic consideration of future distributions of invasive species is required in conservation plans of not yet invaded mountainous ecosystems.

Different rates of defense evolution and niche preferences in clonal and nonclonal milkweeds (Asclepias spp.).

Given the dual role of many plant traits to tolerate both herbivore attack and abiotic stress, the climatic niche of a species should be integrated into the study of plant defense strategies. Here we investigate the impact of plant reproductive strategy and components of species' climatic niche on the rate of chemical defense evolution in the milkweeds using a common garden experiment of 49 species. We found that across Asclepias species, clonal reproduction repeatedly evolved in lower temperature conditions, in species generally producing low concentrations of a toxic defense (cardenolides). Additionally, we found that rates of cardenolide evolution were lower for clonal than for nonclonal species. We thus conclude that because the clonal strategy is based on survival, long generation times, and is associated with tolerance of herbivory, it may be an alternative to toxicity in colder ecosystems. Taken together, these results indicate that the rate of chemical defense evolution is influenced by the intersection of life-history strategy and climatic niches into which plants radiate.

Fischer-Tropsch Slurry Bubble Column Reactor Modeling

The literature part of the work reviews overall Fischer-Tropsch process, Fischer-Tropsch reactors and catalysts. Fundamentals of Fischer-Tropsch modeling are also presented. The emphasis is on the reactor unit. Comparison of the reactors and the catalysts is carried out to choose the suitable reactor setup for the modeling work. The effects of the operation conditions are also investigated. Slurry bubble column reactor model operating with cobalt catalyst is developed by taking into account the mass transfer of the reacting components (CO and H2) and the consumption of the reactants in the liquid phase. The effect of hydrostatic pressure and the change in total mole flow rate in gas phase are taken into account in calculation of the solubilities. The hydrodynamics, reaction kinetics and product composition are determined according to literature. The cooling system and furthermore the required heat transfer area and number of cooling tubes are also determined. The model is implemented in Matlab software. Commercial scale reactor setup is modeled and the behavior of the model is investigated. The possible inaccuraries are evaluated and the suggestions for the future work are presented. The model is also integrated to Aspen Plus process simulation software, which enables the usage of the model in more extensive Fischer-Tropsch process simulations. Commercial scale reactor of diameter of 7 m and height of 30 m was modeled. The capacity of the reactor was calculated to be about 9 800 barrels/day with CO conversion of 75 %. The behavior of the model was realistic and results were in the right range. The highest uncertainty to model was estimated to be caused by the determination of the kinetic rate.

Modeling the transport phenomena within arterial wall: porous media approach

The transport of macromolecules, such as low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and their accumulation in the layers of the arterial wall play a critical role in the creation and development of atherosclerosis. Atherosclerosis is a disease of large arteries e.g., the aorta, coronary, carotid, and other proximal arteries that involves a distinctive accumulation of LDL and other lipid-bearing materials in the arterial wall. Over time, plaque hardens and narrows the arteries. The flow of oxygen-rich blood to organs and other parts of the body is reduced. This can lead to serious problems, including heart attack, stroke, or even death. It has been proven that the accumulation of macromolecules in the arterial wall depends not only on the ease with which materials enter the wall, but also on the hindrance to the passage of materials out of the wall posed by underlying layers. Therefore, attention was drawn to the fact that the wall structure of large arteries is different than other vessels which are disease-resistant. Atherosclerosis tends to be localized in regions of curvature and branching in arteries where fluid shear stress (shear rate) and other fluid mechanical characteristics deviate from their normal spatial and temporal distribution patterns in straight vessels. On the other hand, the smooth muscle cells (SMCs) residing in the media layer of the arterial wall respond to mechanical stimuli, such as shear stress. Shear stress may affect SMC proliferation and migration from the media layer to intima. This occurs in atherosclerosis and intimal hyperplasia. The study of blood flow and other body fluids and of heat transport through the arterial wall is one of the advanced applications of porous media in recent years. The arterial wall may be modeled in both macroscopic (as a continuous porous medium) and microscopic scales (as a heterogeneous porous medium). In the present study, the governing equations of mass, heat and momentum transport have been solved for different species and interstitial fluid within the arterial wall by means of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Simulation models are based on the finite element (FE) and finite volume (FV) methods. The wall structure has been modeled by assuming the wall layers as porous media with different properties. In order to study the heat transport through human tissues, the simulations have been carried out for a non-homogeneous model of porous media. The tissue is composed of blood vessels, cells, and an interstitium. The interstitium consists of interstitial fluid and extracellular fibers. Numerical simulations are performed in a two-dimensional (2D) model to realize the effect of the shape and configuration of the discrete phase on the convective and conductive features of heat transfer, e.g. the interstitium of biological tissues. On the other hand, the governing equations of momentum and mass transport have been solved in the heterogeneous porous media model of the media layer, which has a major role in the transport and accumulation of solutes across the arterial wall. The transport of Adenosine 5´-triphosphate (ATP) is simulated across the media layer as a benchmark to observe how SMCs affect on the species mass transport. In addition, the transport of interstitial fluid has been simulated while the deformation of the media layer (due to high blood pressure) and its constituents such as SMCs are also involved in the model. In this context, the effect of pressure variation on shear stress is investigated over SMCs induced by the interstitial flow both in 2D and three-dimensional (3D) geometries for the media layer. The influence of hypertension (high pressure) on the transport of lowdensity lipoprotein (LDL) through deformable arterial wall layers is also studied. This is due to the pressure-driven convective flow across the arterial wall. The intima and media layers are assumed as homogeneous porous media. The results of the present study reveal that ATP concentration over the surface of SMCs and within the bulk of the media layer is significantly dependent on the distribution of cells. Moreover, the shear stress magnitude and distribution over the SMC surface are affected by transmural pressure and the deformation of the media layer of the aorta wall. This work reflects the fact that the second or even subsequent layers of SMCs may bear shear stresses of the same order of magnitude as the first layer does if cells are arranged in an arbitrary manner. This study has brought new insights into the simulation of the arterial wall, as the previous simplifications have been ignored. The configurations of SMCs used here with elliptic cross sections of SMCs closely resemble the physiological conditions of cells. Moreover, the deformation of SMCs with high transmural pressure which follows the media layer compaction has been studied for the first time. On the other hand, results demonstrate that LDL concentration through the intima and media layers changes significantly as wall layers compress with transmural pressure. It was also noticed that the fraction of leaky junctions across the endothelial cells and the area fraction of fenestral pores over the internal elastic lamina affect the LDL distribution dramatically through the thoracic aorta wall. The simulation techniques introduced in this work can also trigger new ideas for simulating porous media involved in any biomedical, biomechanical, chemical, and environmental engineering applications.

Modeling and Classifying Breast Tissue Density in Mammograms

We present a new approach to model and classify breast parenchymal tissue. Given a mammogram, first, we will discover the distribution of the different tissue densities in an unsupervised manner, and second, we will use this tissue distribution to perform the classification. We achieve this using a classifier based on local descriptors and probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (pLSA), a generative model from the statistical text literature. We studied the influence of different descriptors like texture and SIFT features at the classification stage showing that textons outperform SIFT in all cases. Moreover we demonstrate that pLSA automatically extracts meaningful latent aspects generating a compact tissue representation based on their densities, useful for discriminating on mammogram classification. We show the results of tissue classification over the MIAS and DDSM datasets. We compare our method with approaches that classified these same datasets showing a better performance of our proposal

Modeling of Gold Cyanidation

The chemistry of gold dissolution in alkaline cyanide solution has continually received attention and new rate equations expressing the gold leaching are still developed. The effect of leaching parameters on gold gold cyanidation is studied in this work in order to optimize the leaching process. A gold leaching model, based on the well-known shrinking-core model, is presented in this work. It is proposed that the reaction takes place at the reacting particle surface which is continuously reduced as the reaction proceeds. The model parameters are estimated by comparing experimental data and simulations. The experimental data used in this work was obtained from Ling et al. (1996) and de Andrade Lima and Hodouin (2005). Two different rate equations, where the unreacted amount of gold is considered in one equation, are investigated. In this work, it is presented that the reaction at the surface is the rate controlling step since there is no internal diffusion limitation. The model considering the effect of non-reacting gold shows that the reaction orders are consistent with the experimental observations reported by Ling et al. (1996) and de Andrade Lima and Hodouin (2005). However, it should be noted that the model obtained in this work is based on assumptions of no side reactions, no solid-liquid mass transfer resistances and no effect from temperature.