Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

BREAKING CODES: MAKING THEORIES ON MENSTRUATION ACCESSIBLE THROUGH THIRD-WAVE FEMINISM

Men and women respond to situations according to their community’s social codes. With menstruation, people adhere to “menstrual codes”. Within academic communities, people adhere to “academic codes”. This report paper investigates performances of academic codes and menstrual codes. Implications of gender identity and race are missing and/or minimal in past feminist work regarding menstruation. This paper includes considerations for gender identity and race. Within the examination of academic codes, this paper discusses the inhibitive process of idea creation within the academic sphere, and the limitations to the predominant ways of knowledge sharing within, and outside of, the academic community. The digital project (www.hu.mtu.edu/~creynolds) is one example of how academic and menstrual codes can be broken. The report and project provide a broadly accessible deconstruction of menstrual advertising and academic theories while fostering conversations on menstruation through the sharing of knowledge with others, regardless of gender, race, or academic standing.

Tropopause level Rossby wave breaking in the Northern Hemisphere: a feature-based validation of the ECHAM5-HAM climate model

Breaking synoptic-scale Rossby waves (RWB) at the tropopause level are central to the daily weather evolution in the extratropics and the subtropics. RWB leads to pronounced meridional transport of heat, moisture, momentum, and chemical constituents. RWB events are manifest as elongated and narrow structures in the tropopause-level potential vorticity (PV) field. A feature-based validation approach is used to assess the representation of Northern Hemisphere RWB in present-day climate simulations carried out with the ECHAM5-HAM climate model at three different resolutions (T42L19, T63L31, and T106L31) against the ERA-40 reanalysis data set. An objective identification algorithm extracts RWB events from the isentropic PV field and allows quantifying the frequency of occurrence of RWB. The biases in the frequency of RWB are then compared to biases in the time mean tropopause-level jet wind speeds. The ECHAM5-HAM model captures the location of the RWB frequency maxima in the Northern Hemisphere at all three resolutions. However, at coarse resolution (T42L19) the overall frequency of RWB, i.e. the frequency averaged over all seasons and the entire hemisphere, is underestimated by 28%.The higher-resolution simulations capture the overall frequency of RWB much better, with a minor difference between T63L31 and T106L31 (frequency errors of −3.5 and 6%, respectively). The number of large-size RWB events is significantly underestimated by the T42L19 experiment and well represented in the T106L31 simulation. On the local scale, however, significant differences to ERA-40 are found in the higher-resolution simulations. These differences are regionally confined and vary with the season. The most striking difference between T106L31 and ERA-40 is that ECHAM5-HAM overestimates the frequency of RWB in the subtropical Atlantic in all seasons except for spring. This bias maximum is accompanied by an equatorward extension of the subtropical westerlies.

Electroweak Sudakov effects in W, Z and γ production at large transverse momentum

We study electroweak Sudakov effects in single W, Z and γ production at large transverse momentum using soft collinear effective theory. We present a factorized form of the cross section near the partonic threshold with both QCD and electroweak effects included and compute the electroweak corrections arising at different scales. We analyze their size relative to the QCD corrections as well as the impact of strong-electroweak mixing terms. Numerical results for the vector-boson cross sections at the Large Hadron Collider are presented.

The (2 + 1)-d U (1) quantum link model masquerading as deconfined criticality

The (2 + 1)-d U(1) quantum link model is a gauge theory, amenable to quantum simulation, with a spontaneously broken SO(2) symmetry emerging at a quantum phase transition. Its low-energy physics is described by a (2 + 1)-d RP(1) effective field theory, perturbed by an SO(2) breaking operator, which prevents the interpretation of the emergent pseudo-Goldstone boson as a dual photon. At the quantum phase transition, the model mimics some features of deconfined quantum criticality, but remains linearly confining. Deconfinement only sets in at high temperature.

Transverse-momentum spectra of electroweak bosons near threshold at NNLO

We obtain the next-to-next-to-leading order corrections to transverse-momentum spectra of W, Z and Higgs bosons near the partonic threshold. In the threshold limit, the electroweak boson recoils against a low-mass jet and all radiation is either soft, or collinear to the jet or the beam directions. We extract the virtual corrections from known results for the relevant two-loop four-point amplitudes and combine them with the soft and collinear two-loop functions as defined in Soft-Collinear Effective Theory. We have implemented these results in a public code PeTeR and present numerical results for the threshold resummed cross section of W and Z bosons at next-to-next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy, matched to next-to-leading fixed-order perturbation theory. The two-loop corrections lead to a moderate increase in the cross section and reduce the scale uncertainty by about a factor of two. The corrections are significantly larger for Higgs production.

Electroweak gauge-boson and Higgs production at Small qT: Infrared safety from the collinear anomaly

We discuss the differential cross sections for electroweak gauge-boson and Higgs production at small and very small transverse momentum q_T. Large logarithms are resummed using soft-collinear effective theory. The collinear anomaly generates a non-perturbative scale q^∗, which protects the processes from receiving large long-distance hadronic contributions. A numerical comparison of our predictions with data on the transverse-momentum distribution in Z-boson production at the Tevatron and LHC is given.