Development of lifetime warranty policies and models for estimating costs

In today's fiercely competitive products market, product warranty has started playing an important role. The warranty period offered by the manufacturer/dealer has been progressively increasing since the beginning of the 20th Century. Currently, a large number of products are being sold with long-term warranty policies in the form of extended warranty, warranty for used products, service contracts and lifetime warranty policies. Lifetime warranties are relatively a new concept. The modelling of failures during the warranty period and the costs for such policies are complex since the lifespan in these policies are not defined well and it is often difficult to tell about life measures for the longer period of coverage due to usage pattern/maintenance activities undertaken and uncertainties of costs over the period. This paper focuses on defining lifetime, developing lifetime warranty policies and models for predicting failures and estimating costs for lifetime warranty policies.

From conceptual process models to running systems: A holistic approach for the configuration of enterprise system processes

This paper proposes a method which aims at increasing the efficiency of enterprise system implementations. First, we argue that existing process modeling languages that feature different degrees of abstraction for different user groups exist and are used for different purposes which makes it necessary to integrate them. We describe how to do this using the meta models of the involved languages. Second, we argue that an integrated process model based on the integrated meta model needs to be configurable and elaborate on the enabling mechanisms. We introduce a business example using SAP modeling techniques to illustrate the proposed method.

Role of 3D visual conceptualisation of groundwater system models as a management support tool

After the recent prolonged drought conditions in many parts of Australia it is increasingly recognised that many groundwater systems are under stress. Although this is obvious for systems that are utilised for intensive irrigation many other groundwater systems are also impacted.Management strategies are highly variable to non-existent. Policy and regulation are also often inadequate, and are reactive or politically driven. In addition, there is a wide range of opinion by water users and other stakeholders as to what is “reasonable”management practice. These differences are often related to the “value”that is put on the groundwater resource. Opinions vary from “our right to free water”to an awareness that without effective management the resource will be degraded. There is also often misunderstanding of surface water-groundwater linkages, recharge processes, and baseflow to drainage systems.

Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS): a software framework for developing low-end, scalable and robust software for 3D visualisation and animation of groundwater conceptual models

Effective management of groundwater requires stakeholders to have a realistic conceptual understanding of the groundwater systems and hydrological processes.However, groundwater data can be complex, confusing and often difficult for people to comprehend..A powerful way to communicate understanding of groundwater processes, complex subsurface geology and their relationships is through the use of visualisation techniques to create 3D conceptual groundwater models. In addition, the ability to animate, interrogate and interact with 3D models can encourage a higher level of understanding than static images alone. While there are increasing numbers of software tools available for developing and visualising groundwater conceptual models, these packages are often very expensive and are not readily accessible to majority people due to complexity. .The Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS) is a software framework that can be used to develop groundwater visualisation tools aimed specifically at non-technical computer users and those who are not groundwater domain experts. A primary aim of GVS is to provide management support for agencies, and enhancecommunity understanding.

Object-centric process models and the design of flexible processes

Mainstream business process modelling techniques promote a design paradigm wherein the activities to be performed within a case, together with their usual execution order, form the backbone of a process model, on top of which other aspects are anchored. This paradigm, while eective in standardised and production-oriented domains, shows some limitations when confronted with processes where case-by-case variations and exceptions are the norm. In this thesis we develop the idea that the eective design of exible process models calls for an alternative modelling paradigm, one in which process models are modularised along key business objects, rather than along activity decompositions. The research follows a design science method, starting from the formulation of a research problem expressed in terms of requirements, and culminating in a set of artifacts that have been devised to satisfy these requirements. The main contributions of the thesis are: (i) a meta-model for object-centric process modelling incorporating constructs for capturing exible processes; (ii) a transformation from this meta-model to an existing activity-centric process modelling language, namely YAWL, showing the relation between object-centric and activity-centric process modelling approaches; and (iii) a Coloured Petri Net that captures the semantics of the proposed meta-model. The meta-model has been evaluated using a framework consisting of a set of work ow patterns. Moreover, the meta-model has been embodied in a modelling tool that has been used to capture two industrial scenarios.

The creative sector in New Zealand : mapping and economic role : report to New Zealand Trade and Enterprise

The New Zealand creative sector was responsible for almost 121,000 jobs at the time of the 2006 Census (6.3% of total employment). These are divided between • 35,751 creative specialists – persons employed doing creative work in creative industries • 42,300 support workers - persons providing management and support services in creative industries • 42,792 embedded creative workers – persons engaged in creative work in other types of enterprise The most striking feature of this breakdown is the fact that the largest group of creative workers are employed outside the creative industries, i.e. in other types of businesses. Even within the creative industries, there are fewer people directly engaged in creative work than in providing management and support. Creative sector employees earned incomes of approximately $52,000 per annum at the time of the 2006 Census. This is relatively uniform across all three types of creative worker, and is significantly above the average for all employed persons (of approximately $40,700). Creative employment and incomes were growing strongly over both five year periods between the 1996, 2001 and 2006 Censuses. However, when we compare creative and general trends, we see two distinct phases in the development of the creative sector: • rapid structural growth over the five years to 2001 (especially led by developments in ICT), with creative employment and incomes increasing rapidly at a time when they were growing modestly across the whole economy; • subsequent consolidation, with growth driven by more by national economic expansion than structural change, and creative employment and incomes moving in parallel with strong economy-wide growth. Other important trends revealed by the data are that • the strongest growth during the decade was in embedded creative workers, especially over the first five years. The weakest growth was in creative specialists, with support workers in creative industries in the middle rank, • by far the strongest growth in creative industries’ employment was in Software & digital content, which trebled in size over the decade Comparing New Zealand with the United Kingdom and Australia, the two southern hemisphere nations have significantly lower proportions of total employment in the creative sector (both in creative industries and embedded employment). New Zealand’s and Australia’s creative shares in 2001 were similar (5.4% each), but in the following five years, our share has expanded (to 5.7%) whereas Australia’s fell slightly (to 5.2%) – in both cases, through changes in creative industries’ employment. The creative industries generated $10.5 billion in total gross output in the March 2006 year. Resulting from this was value added totalling $5.1b, representing 3.3% of New Zealand’s total GDP. Overall, value added in the creative industries represents 49% of industry gross output, which is higher than the average across the whole economy, 45%. This is a reflection of the relatively high labour intensity and high earnings of the creative industries. Industries which have an above-average ratio of value added to gross output are usually labour-intensive, especially when wages and salaries are above average. This is true for Software & Digital Content and Architecture, Design & Visual Arts, with ratios of 60.4% and 55.2% respectively. However there is significant variation in this ratio between different parts of the creative industries, with some parts (e.g. Software & Digital Content and Architecture, Design & Visual Arts) generating even higher value added relative to output, and others (e.g. TV & Radio, Publishing and Music & Performing Arts) less, because of high capital intensity and import content. When we take into account the impact of the creative industries’ demand for goods and services from its suppliers and consumption spending from incomes earned, we estimate that there is an addition to economic activity of: • $30.9 billion in gross output, $41.4b in total • $15.1b in value added, $20.3b in total • 158,100 people employed, 234,600 in total The total economic impact of the creative industries is approximately four times their direct output and value added, and three times their direct employment. Their effect on output and value added is roughly in line with the average over all industries, although the effect on employment is significantly lower. This is because of the relatively high labour intensity (and high earnings) of the creative industries, which generate below-average demand from suppliers, but normal levels of demand though expenditure from incomes. Drawing on these numbers and conclusions, we suggest some (slightly speculative) directions for future research. The goal is to better understand the contribution the creative sector makes to productivity growth; in particular, the distinctive contributions from creative firms and embedded creative workers. The ideas for future research can be organised into the several categories: • Understanding the categories of the creative sector– who is doing the business? In other words, examine via more fine grained research (at a firm level perhaps) just what is the creative contribution from the different aspects of the creative sector industries. It may be possible to categorise these in terms of more or less striking innovations. • Investigate the relationship between the characteristics and the performance of the various creative industries/ sectors; • Look more closely at innovation at an industry level e.g. using an index of relative growth of exports, and see if this can be related to intensity of use of creative inputs; • Undertake case studies of the creative sector; • Undertake case studies of the embedded contribution to growth in the firms and industries that employ them, by examining taking several high performing noncreative industries (in the same way as proposed for the creative sector). • Look at the aggregates – drawing on the broad picture of the extent of the numbers of creative workers embedded within the different industries, consider the extent to which these might explain aspects of the industries’ varied performance in terms of exports, growth and so on. • This might be able to extended to examine issues like the type of creative workers that are most effective when embedded, or test the hypothesis that each industry has its own particular requirements for embedded creative workers that overwhelms any generic contributions from say design, or IT.

Economic issues in funding and supplying public sector information [Presentation slides]

PowerPoint presentation by Dr John S Cook at the Spatially Enabled Government Summit 2009, Mapping the Future of Interoperability, Data Collection & Data Management for Operational Excellence within Australian Government, held on 24-27 August, 2009 at the Marque Hotel, Canberra, ACT