Family Models of In(ter)dependence: Cultural Change and the Question of Universal Needs

I will start by discussing some aspects of Kagitcibasi’s Theory of Family Change: its current empirical status and, more importantly, its focus on universal human needs and the consequences of this focus. Family Change Theory’s focus on the universality of the basic human needs of autonomy and relatedness and its culture-level emphasis on cultural norms and family values as reflecting a culture’s capacity for fulfilling its members’ respective needs shows that the theory advocates balanced cultural norms of independence and interdependence. As a normative theory it therefore postulates the necessity of a synthetic family model of emotional interdependence as an alternative to extreme models of total independence and total interdependence. Generalizing from this I will sketch a theoretical model where a dynamic and dialectical process of the fit between individual and culture and between culture and universal human needs and related social practices is central. I will discuss this model using a recent cross-cultural project on implicit theories of self/world and primary/secondary control orientations as an example. Implications for migrating families and acculturating individuals are also discussed.

Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH₄) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH₄ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yr⁻¹ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yr⁻¹ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH₄ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH₄ emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH₄ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yr⁻¹ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yr⁻¹ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH₄ emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.

Dynamic Precision Phenotyping Reveals Mechanism of Crop Tolerance to Root Herbivory

The western corn rootworm (WCR) is a major pest of maize that is well adapted to most crop management strategies. Breeding for tolerance is a promising alternative to combat WCR, but is currently constrained by a lack of physiological understanding and phenotyping tools. We developed dynamic precision phenotyping approaches using carbon-11 with positron emission tomography, root autoradiography and radiometabolite flux analysis to understand maize tolerance to WCR. Our results reveal that WCR attack induces specific patterns of lateral root growth which are associated with a shift in auxin biosynthesis from indole-3-pyruvic acid to indole-3-acetonitrile. WCR attack also increases transport of newly synthesized amino acids to the roots, including the accumulation of glutamine. Finally, the regrowth zones of WCR attacked roots show an increase in glutamine turnover which strongly correlates with the induction of indole-3-acetonitrile-dependent auxin biosynthesis. In summary, our findings identify local changes in the auxin flux network as a promising marker for induced WCR tolerance.

Dynamic D-Vine copula model with applications to Value-at-Risk (VaR)

Regular vine copulas are multivariate dependence models constructed from pair-copulas (bivariate copulas). In this paper, we allow the dependence parameters of the pair-copulas in a D-vine decomposition to be potentially time-varying, following a nonlinear restricted ARMA(1,m) process, in order to obtain a very flexible dependence model for applications to multivariate financial return data. We investigate the dependence among the broad stock market indexes from Germany (DAX), France (CAC 40), Britain (FTSE 100), the United States (S&P 500) and Brazil (IBOVESPA) both in a crisis and in a non-crisis period. We find evidence of stronger dependence among the indexes in bear markets. Surprisingly, though, the dynamic D-vine copula indicates the occurrence of a sharp decrease in dependence between the indexes FTSE and CAC in the beginning of 2011, and also between CAC and DAX during mid-2011 and in the beginning of 2008, suggesting the absence of contagion in these cases. We also evaluate the dynamic D-vine copula with respect to Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting accuracy in crisis periods. The dynamic D-vine outperforms the static D-vine in terms of predictive accuracy for our real data sets.

Surface velocity fields, digital elevation models and ice front positions derived from multi-mission SAR remote sensing data at Sjögren Inlet glaciers, Antarctic Peninsula

Substantial retreat or disintegration of numerous ice shelves have been observed on the Antarctic Peninsula. The ice shelf in the Prince Gustav Channel retreated gradually since the late 1980's and broke-up in 1995. Tributary glaciers reacted with speed-up, surface lowering and increased ice discharge, consequently contributing to sea level rise. We present a detailed long-term study (1993-2014) on the dynamic response of Sjögren Inlet glaciers to the disintegration of Prince Gustav Ice Shelf. We analyzed various remote sensing datasets to observe the reactions of the glaciers to the loss of the buttressing ice shelf. A strong increase in ice surface velocities was observed with maximum flow speeds reaching 2.82±0.48 m/d in 2007 and 1.50±0.32 m/d in 2004 at Sjögren and Boydell glaciers respectively. Subsequently, the flow velocities decelerated, however in late 2014, we still measured about two times the values of our first measurements in 1996. The tributary glaciers retreated 61.7±3.1 km² behind the former grounding line of the ice shelf. In regions below 1000 m a.s.l., a mean surface lowering of -68±10 m (-3.1 m/a) was observed in the period 1993-2014. The lowering rate decreased to -2.2 m/a in recent years. Based on the surface lowering rates, geodetic mass balances of the glaciers were derived for different time steps. High mass loss rate of -1.21±0.36 Gt/a was found in the earliest period (1993-2001). Due to the dynamic adjustments of the glaciers to the new boundary conditions the ice mass loss reduced to -0.59±0.11 Gt/a in the period 2012-2014, resulting in an average mass loss rate of -0.89±0.16 Gt/a (1993-2014). Including the retreat of the ice front and grounding line, a total mass change of -38.5±7.7 Gt and a contribution to sea level rise of 0.061±0.013 mm were computed. Analysis of the ice flux revealed that available bedrock elevation estimates at Sjögren Inlet are too shallow and are the major uncertainty in ice flux computations. This temporally dense time series analysis of Sjögren Inlet glaciers shows that the adjustments of tributary glaciers to ice shelf disintegration are still going on and provides detailed information of the changes in glacier dynamics.

Is the association between late-life morbidity and disability attenuated over time? : Exploring the dynamic equilibrium of morbidity hypothesis

Context: There is evidence suggesting that the prevalence of disability in late life has declined over time while the prevalence of disabling chronic diseases has increased. The dynamic equilibrium of morbidity hypothesis suggests that these seemingly contradictory trends are due to the attenuation of the morbidity-disability link over time. The aim of this study was to empirically test this assumption.Methods: Data were drawn from three repeated cross-sections of SWEOLD, a population-based survey among the Swedish men and women ages 77 and older. Logistic regression models were fitted to assess the trends in the prevalence of Activities of Daily Living (ADL) disability, Instrumental ADL (IADL) disability, and selected groups of chronic conditions. The changes in the associations between chronic conditions and disabilities were examined in both multiplicative and additive models.Results: Between 1992 and 2011, the odds of ADL disability significantly declined among women whereas the odds of IADL disability significantly declined among men. During the same period, the prevalence of most chronic morbidities including multimorbidity went up. Significant attenuations of the morbidity-disability associations were found for cardiovascular diseases, metabolic disorders, poor lung function, psychological distress, and multimorbidity.Conclusion: In agreement with the dynamic equilibrium hypothesis, this study concludes that the associations between chronic conditions and disability among the Swedish older adults have largely waned over time.

Dynamic and steady-state rheology of Australian honeys at subzero temperatures

The rheology of 10 Australian honeys was investigated at temperatures -15C to 0C by a strain-controlled rheometer. The honeys exhibited Newtonian behavior irrespective of the temperature, and follow the Cox-Merz rule. G/G' and omega are quadratically related, and the crossover frequencies for liquid to solid transformation and relaxation times were obtained. The composition of the honeys correlates well (r(2) > 0.83) with the viscosity, and with 24 7 data sets (Australian and Greek honeys), the following equation was obtained: mu = 1.41 x 10(-17) exp [-1.20M + 0.01F - 0.0G + (18.6 X 10(3)/T)] The viscosity of the honeys showed a strong dependence on temperature, and four models were examined to describe this. The models gave good fits (r(2) > 0.95), but better fits were obtained for the WLF model using T-g of the honeys and mu(g) = 10(11) Pa.s. The WLF model with its universal values poorly predicted the viscosity, and the implications of the measured rheological behaviors of the honeys in their processing and handling are discussed.

Coral reefs in a century of rapid environmental change

Coral reefs are the most diverse marine ecosystem and embrace possibly millions of plant, animal and protist species. Mutualistic symbioses are a fundamental feature of coral reefs that have been used to explain their structure, biodiversity and existence. Complex inter-relationships between hosts, habitats and symbionts belie closely coupled nutrient and community dynamics that create the circumstances for something from nothing (or the oasis in a nutrient desert). The flip side of these dynamics is a close dependency between species, which results in a series of non-linear relationships as conditions change. These responses are being highlighted as anthropogenic influences increase across the world's tropical and subtropical coastlines. Caribbean as well as Indo-Pacific coral populations are now in a serious decline in many parts of the world. This has resulted in a significant reorganization of how coral reef ecosystems function. Among the spectra of changes brought about by humans is rapid climate change. Mass coral bleaching - the loss of the dinoflagellate symbionts from reef-building corals - and mortality has affected the world's coral reefs with increasing frequency and intensity since the late 1970s. Mass bleaching events, which often cover thousands of square kilometres of coral reefs, are triggered by small increases (+1-3degreesC) in water temperature. These increases in sea temperature are often seen during warm phase weather conditions (e.g. ENSO) and are increasing in size and magnitude. The loss of living coral cover (e.g. 16% globally in 1998, an exceptionally warm year) is resulting in an as yet unspecified reduction in the abundance of a myriad of other species. Projections from general circulation models (GCM) used to project changes in global temperature indicate that conditions even under the mildest greenhouse gas emission scenarios may exceed the thermal tolerances of most reef-building coral communities. Research must now explore key issues such as the extent to which the thermal tolerances of corals and their symbionts are dynamic if bleaching and disease are linked; how the loss of high densities of reef-building coral will affect other dependent species; and, how the loss of coral populations will affect the millions of people globally who depend on coral reefs for their daily survival.

Earthquake statistics in a Block Slider Model and a fully dynamic Fault Model

We examine the event statistics obtained from two differing simplified models for earthquake faults. The first model is a reproduction of the Block-Slider model of Carlson et al. (1991), a model often employed in seismicity studies. The second model is an elastodynamic fault model based upon the Lattice Solid Model (LSM) of Mora and Place (1994). We performed simulations in which the fault length was varied in each model and generated synthetic catalogs of event sizes and times. From these catalogs, we constructed interval event size distributions and inter-event time distributions. The larger, localised events in the Block-Slider model displayed the same scaling behaviour as events in the LSM however the distribution of inter-event times was markedly different. The analysis of both event size and inter-event time statistics is an effective method for comparative studies of differing simplified models for earthquake faults.

Extension of dynamic model of impulse behavior of concentrated grounds at high currents

A dynamic model which describes the impulse behavior of concentrated grounds at high currents is described in this paper. This model is an extension of previous models in that it can successfully account for the surge behavior of concentrated grounds over a much wider range of current densities. It is able to describe the well known effect of ionization of soil as well as the observed effect of discrete breakdowns and filamentary arc paths at much higher currents. Results of verification against experimental results are also presented.

Prediction of slurry transport in SAG mills using SPH fluid flow in a dynamic DEM based porous media

DEM modelling of the motion of coarse fractions of the charge inside SAG mills has now been well established for more than a decade. In these models the effect of slurry has broadly been ignored due to its complexity. Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) provides a particle based method for modelling complex free surface fluid flows and is well suited to modelling fluid flow in mills. Previous modelling has demonstrated the powerful ability of SPH to capture dynamic fluid flow effects such as lifters crashing into slurry pools, fluid draining from lifters, flow through grates and pulp lifter discharge. However, all these examples were limited by the ability to model only the slurry in the mill without the charge. In this paper, we represent the charge as a dynamic porous media through which the SPH fluid is then able to flow. The porous media properties (specifically the spatial distribution of porosity and velocity) are predicted by time averaging the mill charge predicted using a large scale DEM model. This allows prediction of transient and steady state slurry distributions in the mill and allows its variation with operating parameters, slurry viscosity and slurry volume, to be explored. (C) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Dynamic rupture in a 3-D particle-based simulation of a rough planar fault

An appreciation of the physical mechanisms which cause observed seismicity complexity is fundamental to the understanding of the temporal behaviour of faults and single slip events. Numerical simulation of fault slip can provide insights into fault processes by allowing exploration of parameter spaces which influence microscopic and macroscopic physics of processes which may lead towards an answer to those questions. Particle-based models such as the Lattice Solid Model have been used previously for the simulation of stick-slip dynamics of faults, although mainly in two dimensions. Recent increases in the power of computers and the ability to use the power of parallel computer systems have made it possible to extend particle-based fault simulations to three dimensions. In this paper a particle-based numerical model of a rough planar fault embedded between two elastic blocks in three dimensions is presented. A very simple friction law without any rate dependency and no spatial heterogeneity in the intrinsic coefficient of friction is used in the model. To simulate earthquake dynamics the model is sheared in a direction parallel to the fault plane with a constant velocity at the driving edges. Spontaneous slip occurs on the fault when the shear stress is large enough to overcome the frictional forces on the fault. Slip events with a wide range of event sizes are observed. Investigation of the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of slip during each event shows a high degree of variability between the events. In some of the larger events highly complex slip patterns are observed.

A bayesian artificial neural network method to characterise laminar defects using dynamic measurements

This paper reports on the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) method to detect laminar defects following the pattern matching approach utilizing dynamic measurement. Although structural health monitoring (SHM) using ANN has attracted much attention in the last decade, the problem of how to select the optimal class of ANN models has not been investigated in great depth. It turns out that the lack of a rigorous ANN design methodology is one of the main reasons for the delay in the successful application of the promising technique in SHM. In this paper, a Bayesian method is applied in the selection of the optimal class of ANN models for a given set of input/target training data. The ANN design method is demonstrated for the case of the detection and characterisation of laminar defects in carbon fibre-reinforced beams using flexural vibration data for beams with and without non-symmetric delamination damage.

Towards developing reliable models of leaf area on grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.)

A field study in three vineyards in southern Queensland (Australia) was carried out to develop predictive models for individual leaf area and shoot leaf area of two cultivars (Cabernet Sauvignon and Shiraz) of grapevines (Vitis Vinifera L.). Digital image analysis was used to measure leaf vein length and leaf area. Stepwise regressions of untransformed and transformed models consisting of up to six predictor variables for leaf area and three predictor variables for shoot leaf area were carried out to obtain the most efficient models. High correlation coefficients were found for log10 transformed individual leaf and shoot leaf area models. The significance of predictor variables in the models varied across vineyards and cultivars, demonstrating the discontinuous and heterogeneous nature of vineyards. The application of this work in a grapevine modeling environment and in a dynamic vineyard management context are discussed. Sample sizes for quantification of individual leaf areas and areas of leaves on shoots are proposed based on target margins of errors of sampled data.