Local adaptation in migrated interior Douglas-fir seedlings is mediated by ectomycorrhizas and other soil factors

Separating edaphic impacts on tree distributions from those of climate and geography is notoriously difficult. Aboveground and belowground factors play important roles, and determining their relative contribution to tree success will greatly assist in refining predictive models and forestry strategies in a changing climate. In a common glasshouse, seedlings of interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) from multiple populations were grown in multiple forest soils. Fungicide was applied to half of the seedlings to separate soil fungal and nonfungal impacts on seedling performance. Soils of varying geographic and climatic distance from seed origin were compared, using a transfer function approach. Seedling height and biomass were optimized following seed transfer into drier soils, whereas survival was optimized when elevation transfer was minimised. Fungicide application reduced ectomycorrhizal root colonization by c. 50%, with treated seedlings exhibiting greater survival but reduced biomass. Local adaptation of Douglas-fir populations to soils was mediated by soil fungi to some extent in 56% of soil origin by response variable combinations. Mediation by edaphic factors in general occurred in 81% of combinations. Soil biota, hitherto unaccounted for in climate models, interacts with biogeography to influence plant ranges in a changing climate.

Mesh adaptation on the sphere using optimal transport and the numerical solution of a Monge-Ampère type equation

An equation of Monge-Ampère type has, for the first time, been solved numerically on the surface of the sphere in order to generate optimally transported (OT) meshes, equidistributed with respect to a monitor function. Optimal transport generates meshes that keep the same connectivity as the original mesh, making them suitable for r-adaptive simulations, in which the equations of motion can be solved in a moving frame of reference in order to avoid mapping the solution between old and new meshes and to avoid load balancing problems on parallel computers. The semi-implicit solution of the Monge-Ampère type equation involves a new linearisation of the Hessian term, and exponential maps are used to map from old to new meshes on the sphere. The determinant of the Hessian is evaluated as the change in volume between old and new mesh cells, rather than using numerical approximations to the gradients. OT meshes are generated to compare with centroidal Voronoi tesselations on the sphere and are found to have advantages and disadvantages; OT equidistribution is more accurate, the number of iterations to convergence is independent of the mesh size, face skewness is reduced and the connectivity does not change. However anisotropy is higher and the OT meshes are non-orthogonal. It is shown that optimal transport on the sphere leads to meshes that do not tangle. However, tangling can be introduced by numerical errors in calculating the gradient of the mesh potential. Methods for alleviating this problem are explored. Finally, OT meshes are generated using observed precipitation as a monitor function, in order to demonstrate the potential power of the technique.

Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution

Substantial low-frequency rainfall fluctuations occurred in the Sahel throughout the twentieth century, causing devastating drought. Modeling these low-frequency rainfall fluctuations has remained problematic for climate models for many years. Here we show using a combination of state-of-the-art rainfall observations and high-resolution global climate models that changes in organized heavy rainfall events carry most of the rainfall variability in the Sahel at multiannual to decadal time scales. Ability to produce intense, organized convection allows climate models to correctly simulate the magnitude of late-twentieth century rainfall change, underlining the importance of model resolution. Increasing model resolution allows a better coupling between large-scale circulation changes and regional rainfall processes over the Sahel. These results provide a strong basis for developing more reliable and skilful long-term predictions of rainfall (seasons to years) which could benefit many sectors in the region by allowing early adaptation to impending extremes.

Decimal growth stages for precision wheat production in changing environments?

The utility of the decimal growth stage (DGS) scoring system for cereals is reviewed. The DGS is the most widely used scale in academic and commercial applications because of its comprehensive coverage of cereal developmental stages, the ease of use and definition provided and adoption by official agencies. The DGS has demonstrable and established value in helping to optimise the timing of agronomic inputs, particularly with regard to plant growth regulators, herbicides, fungicides and soluble nitrogen fertilisers. In addition, the DGS is used to help parameterise crop models, and also in understanding the response and adaptation of crops to the environment. The value of the DGS for increasing precision relies on it indicating, to some degree, the various stages in the development of the stem apex and spike. Coincidence of specific growth stage scores with the transition of the apical meristem from a vegetative to a reproductive state, and also with the period of meiosis, is unreliable. Nonetheless, in pot experiments it is shown that the broad period of booting (DGS 41–49) appears adequate for covering the duration when the vulnerability of meiosis to drought and heat stress is exposed. Similarly, the duration of anthesis (61–69) is particularly susceptible to abiotic stresses: initially from a fertility perspective, but increasingly from a mean grain weight perspective as flowering progresses to DGS 69 and then milk development. These associations with DGS can have value at the crop level of organisation: for interpreting environmental effects, and in crop modelling. However, genetic, biochemical and physiological analysis to develop greater understanding of stress acclimation during the vegetative state, and tolerance at meiosis, does require more precision than DGS can provide. Similarly, individual floret analysis is needed to further understand the genetic basis of stress tolerance during anthesis.

Rhodosporidium toruloides cultivated in NaCl-enriched glucose-based media: adaptation dynamics and lipid production

In the present report and for the first time in the international literature, the impact of the addition of NaCl upon growth and lipid production on the oleaginous yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides was studied. Moreover, equally for first time, lipid production by R. toruloides was performed under non-aseptic conditions. Therefore, the potentiality of R. toruloides DSM 4444 to produce lipid in media containing several initial concentrations of NaCl with glucose employed as carbon source was studied. Preliminary batch-flask trials with increasing amounts of NaCl revealed the tolerance of the strain against NaCl content up to 6.0% (w/v). However, 4.0% (w/v) of NaCl stimulated lipid accumulation for this strain, by enhancing lipid production up to 71.3% (w/w) per dry cell weight. The same amount of NaCl was employed in pasteurized batch-flask cultures in order to investigate the role of the salt as bacterial inhibiting agent. The combination of NaCl and high glucose concentrations was found to satisfactorily suppress bacterial contamination of R. toruloides cultures under these conditions. Batch-bioreactor trials of the yeast in the same media with high glucose content (up to 150 g/L) resulted in satisfactory substrate assimilation, with almost linear kinetic profile for lipid production, regardless of the initial glucose concentration imposed. Finally, fed-batch bioreactor cultures led to the production of 37.2 g/L of biomass, accompanied by 64.5% (w/w) of lipid yield. Lipid yield per unit of glucose consumed received the very satisfactory value of 0.21 g/g, a value amongst the highest ones in the literature. The yeast lipid produced contained mainly oleic acid and to lesser extent palmitic and stearic acids, thus constituting a perfect starting material for “second generation” biodiesel

Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate

Phenology shifts are the most widely cited examples of the biological impact of climate change, yet there are few assessments of potential effects on the fitness of individual organisms or the persistence of populations. Despite extensive evidence of climate-driven advances in phenological events over recent decades, comparable patterns across species' geographic ranges have seldom been described. Even fewer studies have quantified concurrent spatial gradients and temporal trends between phenology and climate. Here we analyse a large data set (~129 000 phenology measures) over 37 years across the UK to provide the first phylogenetic comparative analysis of the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial and temporal patterns in butterfly mean flight dates. Although populations of all species exhibit a plastic response to temperature, with adult emergence dates earlier in warmer years by an average of 6.4 days per °C, among-population differences are significantly lower on average, at 4.3 days per °C. Emergence dates of most species are more synchronised over their geographic range than is predicted by their relationship between mean flight date and temperature over time, suggesting local adaptation. Biological traits of species only weakly explained the variation in differences between space-temperature and time-temperature phenological responses, suggesting that multiple mechanisms may operate to maintain local adaptation. As niche models assume constant relationships between occurrence and environmental conditions across a species' entire range, an important implication of the temperature-mediated local adaptation detected here is that populations of insects are much more sensitive to future climate changes than current projections suggest.

A decision framework for considering climate change adaptation in biodiversity conservation planning

General principles of climate change adaptation for biodiversity have been formulated, but do not help prioritize actions. This is inhibiting their integration into conservation planning. We address this need with a decision framework that identifies and prioritizes actions to increase the adaptive capacity of species. The framework classifies species according to their current distribution and projected future climate space, as a basis for selecting appropriate decision trees. Decisions rely primarily on expert opinion, with additional information from quantitative models, where data are available. The framework considers in-situ management, followed by interventions at the landscape scale and finally translocation or ex-situ conservation. Synthesis and applications: From eight case studies, the key interventions identified for integrating climate change adaptation into conservation planning were local management and expansion of sites. We anticipate that, in combination with consideration of socio-economic and local factors, the decision framework will be a useful tool for conservation and natural resource managers to integrate adaptation measures into conservation plans.

A review of drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia

The Middle East and Southwest Asia comprise a region that is water-stressed, societally vulnerable, and prone to severe droughts. Large-scale climate variability, particularly La Niña, appears to play an important role in region-wide drought, including the two most severe of the last fifty years—1999-2001 and 2007-2008—with implications for drought forecasting. Important dynamical factors include orography, thermodynamic influence on vertical motion, storm track changes, and moisture transport. Vegetation in the region is strongly impacted by drought and may provide an important feedback mechanism. In future projections, drying of the eastern Mediterranean is a robust feature, as are temperature increases throughout the region, which will affect evaporation and the timing and intensity of snowmelt. Vegetation feedbacks may become more important in a warming climate. There are a wide range of outstanding issues for understanding, monitoring, and predicting drought in the region, including: dynamics of the regional storm track, the relative importance of the range of dynamical mechanisms related to drought, regional coherence of drought, the relationship between synoptic-scale mechanisms and drought, predictability of vegetation and crop yields, stability of remote influences, data uncertainty, and the role of temperature. Development of a regional framework for cooperative work and dissemination of information and existing forecasts would speed understanding and make better use of available information.

Participatory urban planning for climate change adaptation in coastal cities: lessons from a pilot experience in Maputo, Mozambique

This paper proposes a rights-based approach for participatory urban planning for climate change adaptation in urban areas. Participatory urban planning ties climate change adaptation to local development opportunities. Previous discussions suggest that participatory urban planning may help to understand structural inequalities, to gain, even if temporally, institutional support and to deliver a planning process in constant negotiation with local actors. Building upon an action research project which implemented a process of participatory urban planning for climate change in Maputo, Mozambique, this paper reflects upon the practical lessons that emerged from these experiences, in relation to the incorporation of climate change information, the difficulties to secure continued support from local governments and the opportunities for local impacts through the implementation of the proposals emerging from this process.

The risk of drought

This section of the report summarises the effect of different levels of climate change on risk of drought.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

Seasonal drought stress in the Amazon: Reconciling models and observations

The Amazon Basin is crucial to global circulatory and carbon patterns due to the large areal extent and large flux magnitude. Biogeophysical models have had difficulty reproducing the annual cycle of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon in some regions of the Amazon, generally simulating uptake during the wet season and efflux during seasonal drought. In reality, the opposite occurs. Observational and modeling studies have identified several mechanisms that explain the observed annual cycle, including: (1) deep soil columns that can store large water amount, (2) the ability of deep roots to access moisture at depth when near-surface soil dries during annual drought, (3) movement of water in the soil via hydraulic redistribution, allowing for more efficient uptake of water during the wet season, and moistening of near-surface soil during the annual drought, and (4) photosynthetic response to elevated light levels as cloudiness decreases during the dry season. We incorporate these mechanisms into the third version of the Simple Biosphere model (SiB3) both singly and collectively, and confront the results with observations. For the forest to maintain function through seasonal drought, there must be sufficient water storage in the soil to sustain transpiration through the dry season in addition to the ability of the roots to access the stored water. We find that individually, none of these mechanisms by themselves produces a simulation of the annual cycle of NEE that matches the observed. When these mechanisms are combined into the model, NEE follows the general trend of the observations, showing efflux during the wet season and uptake during seasonal drought.

Dietary copper absorption and excretion in three semi-terrestrial grapsoid crabs with different levels of terrestrial adaptation

Three species of phylogenetically related semi-terrestrial crabs (Superfamily Grapsoidea - Sesarma rectum, Goniopsis cruentata and Neohelice granulata (formerly: Chasmagnathus granulatus) with different degrees of terrestriality were studied to quantify the accumulation of copper (Cu) in hemolymph, gills, hepatopancreas and antennal gland, and its excretion through the faeces. These crabs were fed for 15 days practical diets containing 0 (A), 0.5 (B), 1.0 (C), and 1.5% (D) of added CuCl2 (corresponding to 0, 0.2, 0.5 and 0.7% of Cu2+, respectively). The amount of food ingested was directly proportional to the degree of terrestriality: S. rectum, the most terrestrial species, ate around 2-3 times more than the other crabs, whereas G. cruentata ate 1.5-2 times more than N. granulata, the least terrestrial. The amount of Cu excreted in the feces was proportional to Cu ingestion, and was 76.8% and 64.2% higher for Sesarma fed diet D compared to G. cruentata and N. granulata, respectively. Sesarma also displayed higher Cu concentration in the haemolymph, gills and antennal glands, but not in the hepatopancreas. A detoxifying mechanism followed by elimination was probably present at this last organ, preventing Cu accumulation. More terrestrial crabs, such as Sesarma, may accumulate more Cu in hemolymph and tissues, showing a correlation between metal accumulation and increased terrestriality. In this aspect, contaminated feed sources with Cu may have more impact in conservation of terrestrial crabs. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.