Russia in Crisis: Year One. OSW Report, January 2010

Economic conditions which had favoured Russia’s development suddenly changed in mid-2008. The Russian economy was hit, on the one hand, by a drastic slump in oil prices (which fell from nearly US$150 to US$50 between July 2008 and January 2009), and on the other by the outflow of investors (a net of US$130 billion of capital left Russia in the fourth quarter of 2008). Within several months, the financial crisis became an economic crisis affecting the entire economy. The financial reserves accumulated in times of prosperity (more than US$162 billion in the stabilisation funds and nearly US$598 billion in the currency and gold reserve) alleviated the negative impact of the crisis, although this failed to prevent the deep declines in macroeconomic indicators. Russia is one of the states most severely affected by the crisis. In the first half of 2009, its GDP fell by 10.4% compared to the same period in the previous year, while industrial production dropped by nearly 15%, and a decrease in investments of over 18% was reported. The poor economic performance has strongly affected the Russian budget, which reported a deficit for the first time in ten years in 2009. During the first year of the crisis (August 2008 – September 2009), Russia’s financial reserves were seriously reduced as a result of the government’s anti-crisis policy and interventions from the central bank: the reserve fund decreased by nearly 45% to US$76 billion, and the central bank’s reserves shrunk by nearly US$200 billion to US$409 billion. Meanwhile, however, the money in the National Welfare Fund, which had been intended almost entirely to subsidise the Pensions Fund between 2010 and 2015, rose almost three-fold (to US$90 billion). According to government forecasts, the money from the reserve fund is also supposed to be spent fully in 2010. The financial crisis has triggered a dynamic outflow of capital from the Russian market. So-called speculative capital was the first to demonstrate the lack of confidence in the Russian market. In the first half of 2009, the growth rate of long-term investments also decreased noticeably, although no spectacular withdrawal of direct investments from Russia has been observed. The economic crisis has also halted the foreign expansion of Russian private capital, while state-owned capital strengthened its position as an investor. Russia’s raw materials companies continue to be the main category of foreign investors; however, new technologies are gaining prominence as the second main direction of Russian investments.

The Financial Crisis and the Future of the Eurozone. Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefing 21/2010

The government debt crisis, erupted in the Eurozone in 2009, nearly led to the collapse of European monetary union. Now that this has been averted, the question is what should be done to make the Eurozone sustainable in the long run. The survival of the Eurozone hinges on the capacity of its leaders to improve the eurozone's governance. With the exception of Greece, the root cause of the government debt crisis has little to do with the poor performance of the SGP, rather, with unsustainable debt accumulation by private actors. Also, the method of convergence implicit in the SGP has not worked well – macroeconomic divergences have stubbornly remained for nearly a decade and several countries experienced boom and bust dynamics. Although strong declines in real interest rates may explain part of the story (but e.g. Italy did not experience boom & bust), self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism which might be called 'animal spirits' and are of mainly national origin, seem a good candidate for explanation. These national animal spirits endogenously trigger credit expansion and contraction. It follows that (national) movements of credit ought to be under much firmer control and this is up to the monetary authorities, including the ECB. Critical recommendations for better governance of the Eurozone should therefore combine credible measures to maintain fiscal discipline over the medium term with such instruments as minimum reserve requirements to control the growth of bank credit as well as minimum reserve requirements in different national banking systems. Finally, the idea of adding more sanctions to the SGP may be ill-conceived since, in future, it might pre-empt national governments to come to the rescue of banks (under credible threats of contagion) and/or prevent a downward spiral in economic activity.

Agricultural and Rural Labour Markets in the EU Candidate Countries of Croatia, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 6, September 2011

This paper provides an overview and comparison of labour markets in agricultural and rural areas in the three candidate countries for the EU membership: Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey. We analyse and compare the labour market structures and the factors driving them. The analyses are based on the available cross-section and time-series data on agricultural labour structures and living conditions in rural areas. Considerable differences are found among the candidate countries in the importance of the agricultural labour force, between rural and urban labour, and in poverty and living conditions in rural areas. Agricultural and rural labour market structures are the result of demographic and education processes, in addition to labour flows between agricultural and non-agricultural activities, from rural areas to urban ones and migration flows abroad. Declines in the agricultural labour force and rural population are foreseen for each of the candidate countries, but with significant variations between them. Showing different patterns over time, labour market developments in the sector and rural areas have been shaped by the overall labour market institutions, conditions and other factors in each country, such as the legal basis, educational attainment and migration flows, as well as the presence of non-agricultural activities in rural areas.

Why Are German Employers Associations Declining? A Challenge to the Conventional Wisdom. CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 05.3, 2005

This paper challenges the conventional explanation for declining density of German employers associations. The dominant account asserts that German trade unions have taken advantage of increased globalization since the 1980s which has made internationally active enterprises more vulnerable to production disruptions to extract additional monopoly rents from multinational employers via aggressive collective bargaining. Small firms have responded to the increased union pressures by avoiding membership employers associations, which has produced the density declines. Data, however, disconfirm the conventional explanation; compensation increases have actually become increasingly smaller over the decades. This paper presents an alternative explanation that is consistent with the data. We argue that it is the large product manufacturers rather than the trade unions that have greatly increased price pressures on parts suppliers, which has led to a disproportionate number of suppliers to quit employers associations. The paper also discusses these findings in light of the "varieties of capitalism" literature. It points out that this literature has depicted national models as too homogeneous. The decision of several German employers associations to offer different classes of membership represents an accentuation of variety within national varieties of capitalism.

Influence of nitrogen deficiency on senescence and the amounts of RNA and proteins in wheat leaves

Senescence-associated coordination in amounts of enzymes localized in different cellular compartments were determined in attached leaves of young wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Arina) plants. Senescence was initiated at the time of full leaf elongation based on declines in total RNA and soluble protein. Removal of N from the growth medium just at the time of full leaf elongation enhanced the rate of senescence. Sustained declines in the amount of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco, EC 4.1.1.39), and a marked decrease in the rbcS transcripts, just after full leaf elongation indicated that Rubisco synthesis/degradation was very sensitive to the onset of senescence. Rubisco activase amount also declined during senescence but the proportion of rca transcript relative to the total poly A RNA pool increased 3-fold during senescence. Thus, continued synthesis of activase may be required to maintain functional Rubisco throughout senescence. N stress led to declines in the amount of proteins located in the chloroplast, the peroxisome and the cytosol. Transcripts of the Clp protease subunits also declined in response to N stress, indicating that Clp is not a senescence-specific protease. In contrast to the other proteins, mitochondrial NADH-glutamate dehydrogenase (EC 1.4.1.2) was relatively stable during senescence and was not affected by N stress. During natural senescence with adequate plant nitrate supply the amount of nitrite reductase (EC 1.7.7.1) increased, and those of glutamine synthetase (EC 1.4.7.1) and glutamate synthase (EC 6.3.1.2) were stable. These results indicated that N assimilatory capacity can continue or even increase during senescence if the substrate supply is maintained. Differential stabilities of proteins, even within the same cellular compartment, indicate that proteolytic activity during senescence must be highly regulated.

Calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy of ODP Hole 108-667A and DSDP Site 85-574

Detailed quantitative analyses of selected calcareous nannofossil species were used to determine the placement of zonal boundaries. In Hole 667A in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, Zones CP19 through CN5 were recognized, whereas at Site 574 in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, only the CN4/CN5 boundary could be determined. Boundaries were identified by sharp rises and declines in abundance at the beginnings and ends, respectively, of index fossil ranges. The sharp rise in abundance at the beginning of the range of Triquetrorhabdulus rugosus provided a good datum level in both regions; the same is true for the sharp decline in abundance at the end of the range of Cyclicargolithus floridanus. The last occurrence of Helicosphaera ampliaperta was used to mark the CN3/CN4 boundary in Hole 667A, while at Site 574, H. ampliaperta was absent. The abundance pattern of Triquetrorhabdulus carinatus obtained from Hole 667A makes it impossible to observe a distinct disappearance level. Age/depth plots reveal uniform sedimentation rates at both sites during early Miocene times. At Site 667 in the Atlantic the mean sedimentation rate was 14.90 m/m.y., and at Site 574 in the Pacific it was 16.17 m/m.y. during this same period. One new nannofossil species, Triquetrorhabdulus rioensis, is described; and one species, Triquetrorhabdulus serratus, is recombined.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of late Eocene and Oligocene foraminifera from the Atlantic Ocean

Oxygen isotope analyses of late Eocene and Oligocene planktonic foraminifers from low and middle latitude sites in the Atlantic Basin show that different species from the same samples can yield significantly different isotopic values. The range of isotopic values observed between species is greatest at low-latitudes and declines poleward. Many planktonic foraminifers exhibit a systematic isotopic ranking with respect to each other and can therefore be grouped on the basis of their isotopic ranking. The isotopic ranking of some taxa, however, appears to vary geographically and/or through time. Isotopic and paleontologic data from DSDP Site 522 indicate that commonly used isotopic temperature scales underestimate Oligocene sea surface temperatures. We suggest these temperature scales require revision to reflect the presence of Oligocene glaciation. Comparison of isotopic and paleontologic data from Sites 522, 511 and 277 suggests cold, low-salinity surface waters were present in high southern latitudes during the early Oligocene. Lowsalinity, high latitude surface waters could be caused by Eocene/Oligocene paleogeography or by the production of warm saline bottom water.

Pollen profile of sediment core Dethlingen, Germany

To better understand the environmental variability during the Holsteinian interglacial, we have palynologically analyzed a new core from Dethlingen, northern Germany, at a decadal resolution. Our data provide insights into the vegetation dynamics and thus also climate variability during the meso- to telocratic forest phases of the interglacial. Temperate mixed forests dominated the regional landscape throughout the Holsteinian. However, changes in the forest composition during the younger stages of the interglacial suggest a climatic transition towards milder conditions in winter. The strong presence of boreal floral elements during the older stages of the Holsteinian interglacial suggests a high seasonality. In contrast, during the younger stages the development of sub-Atlantic and Atlantic floral elements suggests increasingly warm and humid climatic conditions. Peak warming during the younger stage of the Holsteinian is marked by the maximum pollen abundances of Buxus, Abies, and Quercus. Although the vegetation dynamics suggest a general warming trend throughout the Holsteinian interglacial, abrupt as well as gradual changes in the relative abundances of temperate plants indicate considerable climatic variability. In particular, two marked declines in temperate taxa leading to the transient development of boreal and sub-temperate forests indicate short-term climatic oscillations that occurred within full interglacial conditions. The palynological signatures of these two regressive phases in vegetation development differ with regard to the expansion of pioneer trees, the abundances and rates of change of temperate taxa, and the presence of frost-sensitive taxa. These differences point to different mechanisms responsible for the individual regressive phases. Assuming a correlation of the interglacial at Dethlingen with Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, our data suggest that temperate forests prevailed in northern Germany during the younger parts of MIS 11c.

Sea ice habitat characteristics and number of narwhal (Monodon monoceros) sightings in Disko Bay, West Greenland

There is a paucity of information on abundance, densities, and habitat selection of narwhals Monodon monoceros in the offshore pack ice of Baffin Bay, West Greenland, despite the critical importance of winter foraging regions and considerable sea ice declines in the past decades. We conducted a double-platform visual aerial survey over a narwhal wintering ground to obtain pack ice densities and develop the first fully corrected abundance estimate using point conditional mark-recapture distance sampling. Continuous video recording and digital images taken along the trackline allowed for in situ quantification of winter narwhal habitat and for the estimation of fine-scale narwhal habitat selection and habitat-specific sighting probabilities. Abundance at the surface was estimated at 3484 (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.46) including whales missed by observers. The fully corrected abundance of narwhals was 18 044 (CV = 0.46), or approximately one-quarter of the entire Baffin Bay population. The narwhal wintering ground surveyed (~9500 km**2) had 2.4 to 3.2% open water based on estimates from satellite imagery (NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and 1565 digital photographic images collected on the trackline. Thus, the ~18 000 narwhals had access to 233 km**2 of open water, resulting in an average density of ~77 narwhals/km**2 open water. Narwhal sighting probability near habitats with <10% or 10 to 50% open water was significantly higher than sighting probability in habitats with >50% open water, suggesting narwhals select optimal foraging areas in dense pack ice regardless of open water availability. This study provides the first quantitative ecological data on densities and habitat selection of narwhals in pack ice foraging regions that are rapidly being altered with climate change.

Worker Voice : Employee Representation in the Workplace in Australia, Canada, Germany, the UK and the US, 1914-1939 /

This book informs debates about worker participation in the workplace or worker voice by analysing comparative historical data relating to these ideas during the inter-war period in Australia, Canada, Germany, the UK and the US. The issue is topical because of the contemporary shift to a workplace focus in many countries without a corresponding development of infrastructure at the workplace level, and because of the growing ‘representation gap’ as union membership declines. Some commentators have called for the introduction of works councils to address these issues. Other scholars have gone back and examined the experiences with the non-union Employee Representation Plans (ERPs) in Canada and the US. This book will test these claims through examining and comparing the historical record of previous efforts of five countries during a rich period of experimentation between the Wars. In addition to ERPs, the book expands the debate will by examining union-management co-operation, Whitley works committees and German works councils.

Dimethylsulphide and halocarbon concentrations taken from 10m integrated samples during the 2012 KOSMOS Finland Mesocosm experiment

The Baltic Sea is a unique environment as the largest body of brackish water in the world. Acidification of the surface oceans due to absorption of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is an additional stressor facing the pelagic community of the already challenging Baltic Sea. To investigate its impact on trace gas biogeochemistry, a large-scale mesocosm experiment was performed off Tvärminne Research Station, Finland in summer 2012. During the second half of the experiment, dimethylsulphide (DMS) concentrations in the highest fCO2 mesocosms (1075-1333 µatm) were 34 % lower than at ambient CO2 (350 µatm). However the net production (as measured by concentration change) of seven halocarbons analysed was not significantly affected by even the highest CO2 levels after 5 weeks exposure. Methyl iodide (CH3I) and diiodomethane (CH2I2) showed 15 % and 57 % increases in mean mesocosm concentration (3.8 ± 0.6 pmol L-1 increasing to 4.3 ± 0.4 pmol L-1 and 87.4 ± 14.9 pmol L-1 increasing to 134.4 ± 24.1 pmol L-1 respectively) during Phase II of the experiment, which were unrelated to CO2 and corresponded to 30 % lower Chl-? concentrations compared to Phase I. No other iodocarbons increased or showed a peak, with mean chloroiodomethane (CH2ClI) concentrations measured at 5.3 (± 0.9) pmol L-1 and iodoethane (C2H5I) at 0.5 (± 0.1) pmol L-1. Of the concentrations of bromoform (CHBr3; mean 88.1 ± 13.2 pmol L-1), dibromomethane (CH2Br2; mean 5.3 ± 0.8 pmol L-1) and dibromochloromethane (CHBr2Cl, mean 3.0 ± 0.5 pmol L-1), only CH2Br2 showed a decrease of 17 % between Phases I and II, with CHBr3 and CHBr2Cl showing similar mean concentrations in both Phases. Outside the mesocosms, an upwelling event was responsible for bringing colder, high CO2, low pH water to the surface starting on day t16 of the experiment; this variable CO2 system with frequent upwelling events implies the community of the Baltic Sea is acclimated to regular significant declines in pH caused by up to 800 µatm fCO2. After this upwelling, DMS concentrations declined, but halocarbon concentrations remained similar or increased compared to measurements prior to the change in conditions. Based on our findings, with future acidification of Baltic Sea waters, biogenic halocarbon emissions are likely to remain at similar values to today, however emissions of biogenic sulphur could significantly decrease from this region.

Variations of fin whale vocalizations in the Northeast Pacific and the effects of environmental parameters on acoustic sensitivity

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Antiretroviral Treatment as Prevention in African HIV-1 Serodiscordant Couples: Understanding the Challenges and Opportunities

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Rising longevity, education, savings, and growth

This paper examines the impact of declines in adult mortality on growth in an overlapping generations model. With public education and imperfect annuity markets, a decline in mortality affects growth through three channels. First, it raises the saving rate and thereby increases the rate of physical capital accumulation. Second, it reduces accidental bequests, lowers investment, and thereby lowers the rate of physical capital accumulation. Third, it may lead the median voter to increase the tax rate for public education initially but lower the tax rate in a later stage. Starting from a high mortality rate as found in many Third World populations, the net effect of a decline in mortality is to raise the growth rate. However, starting from a low mortality rate such as is found in most industrial populations, the net effect of a further decline in mortality is to reduce the growth rate. The findings appear consistent with recent empirical evidence. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.

Adventitious root formation in cuttings of Backhousia citriodora F. Muell: 1. Plant genotype, juvenility and characteristics of cuttings

Backhousia citriodora is a commercially valuable Australian woody species that has a reputation for being recalcitrant in forming adventitious roots from cuttings. A study was carried out to determine whether maturation and plant genotype influenced rooting. It also tried to establish whether genotypic differences in rooting ability were related to characteristics of the cutting material. The rooting of cuttings in B. citriodora declines after maturation and is strongly influenced by genotype. The cutting characteristics of actively growing axillary buds, wide stems and mature leaves are associated with rooting and survival but not related to genotype. Furthermore, the 8-24 weeks required by B. citriodora to form roots from cuttings makes it difficult to distinguish between the characteristics that increase rooting and those characteristics that enhance survival. A subsequent disbudding experiment demonstrated that axillary buds per se have an inhibitory effect on rooting. This suggests that the presence of actively growing axillary buds are an indication of overall growth and condition of the stock plant unrelated to the formation of adventitious rooting. The effects of other cutting characteristics on rooting are also discussed. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.