Contemporary New Zealand coefficients for the Trauma Injury Severity Score: TRISS(NZ)

Aims – To develop local contemporary coefficients for the Trauma Injury Severity Score in New Zealand, TRISS(NZ), and to evaluate their performance at predicting survival against the original TRISS coefficients. Methods – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until presentation at Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Coefficients were estimated using ordinary and multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models. Results – 1735 eligible patients were identified, 1672 (96%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 63 (4%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1250 (75%) were male and average age was 38 years (range: 15-94 years). TRISS information was available for 1565 patients of whom 204 (13%) died. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves was 0.901 (95%CI: 0.879-0.923) for the TRISS(NZ) model and 0.890 (95% CI: 0.866-0.913) for TRISS (P<0.001). Insufficient data were available to determine coefficients for penetrating mechanism TRISS(NZ) models. Conclusions – Both TRISS models accurately predicted survival for blunt mechanism trauma. However, TRISS(NZ) coefficients were statistically superior to TRISS coefficients. A strong case exists for replacing TRISS coefficients in the New Zealand benchmarking software with these updated TRISS(NZ) estimates.

Implementation of an integrated, technology-based, discovery mode assessment item involving an incubation period to enhance learning outcomes for engineering maths students

In this paper we discuss our current efforts to develop and implement an exploratory, discovery mode assessment item into the total learning and assessment profile for a target group of about 100 second level engineering mathematics students. The assessment item under development is composed of 2 parts, namely, a set of "pre-lab" homework problems (which focus on relevant prior mathematical knowledge, concepts and skills), and complementary computing laboratory exercises which are undertaken within a fixed (1 hour) time frame. In particular, the computing exercises exploit the algebraic manipulation and visualisation capabilities of the symbolic algebra package MAPLE, with the aim of promoting understanding of certain mathematical concepts and skills via visual and intuitive reasoning, rather than a formal or rigorous approach. The assessment task we are developing is aimed at providing students with a significant learning experience, in addition to providing feedback on their individual knowledge and skills. To this end, a noteworthy feature of the scheme is that marks awarded for the laboratory work are primarily based on the extent to which reflective, critical thinking is demonstrated, rather than the amount of CBE-style tasks completed by the student within the allowed time. With regard to student learning outcomes, a novel and potentially critical feature of our scheme is that the assessment task is designed to be intimately linked to the overall course content, in that it aims to introduce important concepts and skills (via individual student exploration) which will be revisited somewhat later in the pedagogically more restrictive formal lecture component of the course (typically a large group plenary format). Furthermore, the time delay involved, or "incubation period", is also a deliberate design feature: it is intended to allow students the opportunity to undergo potentially important internal re-adjustments in their understanding, before being exposed to lectures on related course content which are invariably delivered in a more condensed, formal and mathematically rigorous manner. In our presentation, we will discuss in more detail our motivation and rationale for trailing such a scheme for the targeted student group. Some of the advantages and disadvantages of our approach (as we perceived them at the initial stages) will also be enumerated. In a companion paper, the theoretical framework for our approach will be more fully elaborated, and measures of student learning outcomes (as obtained from eg. student provided feedback) will be discussed.

Developing mathematics understanding and abstraction : the case of equivalence in the elementary years

Generalising arithmetic structures is seen as a key to developing algebraic understanding. Many adolescent students begin secondary school with a poor understanding of the structure of arithmetic. This paper presents a theory for a teaching/learning trajectory designed to build mathematical understanding and abstraction in the elementary school context. The particular focus is on the use of models and representations to construct an understanding of equivalence. The results of a longitudinal intervention study with five elementary schools, following 220 students as they progressed from Year 2 to Year 6, informed the development of this theory. Data were gathered from multiple sources including interviews, videos of classroom teaching, and pre-and post-tests. Data reduction resulted in the development of nine conjectures representing a growth in integration of models and representations. These conjectures formed the basis of the theory.

Automating human thought processes for a UAV forced landing

This paper describes the current status of a program to develop an automated forced landing system for a fixed-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). This automated system seeks to emulate human pilot thought processes when planning for and conducting an engine-off emergency landing. Firstly, a path planning algorithm that extends Dubins curves to 3D space is presented. This planning element is then combined with a nonlinear guidance and control logic, and simulated test results demonstrate the robustness of this approach to strong winds during a glided descent. The average path deviation errors incurred are comparable to or even better than that of manned, powered aircraft. Secondly, a study into suitable multi-criteria decision making approaches and the problems that confront the decision-maker is presented. From this study, it is believed that decision processes that utilize human expert knowledge and fuzzy logic reasoning are most suited to the problem at hand, and further investigations will be conducted to identify the particular technique/s to be implemented in simulations and field tests. The automated UAV forced landing approach presented in this paper is promising, and will allow the progression of this technology from the development and simulation stages through to a prototype system

Multicomponent kinetic spectrophotometric determination of pefloxacin and norfloxacin in pharmaceutical preparations and human plasma samples with the aid of chemometrics

A spectrophotometric method for the simultaneous determination of the important pharmaceuticals, pefloxacin and its structurally similar metabolite, norfloxacin, is described for the first time. The analysis is based on the monitoring of a kinetic spectrophotometric reaction of the two analytes with potassium permanganate as the oxidant. The measurement of the reaction process followed the absorbance decrease of potassium permanganate at 526 nm, and the accompanying increase of the product, potassium manganate, at 608 nm. It was essential to use multivariate calibrations to overcome severe spectral overlaps and similarities in reaction kinetics. Calibration curves for the individual analytes showed linear relationships over the concentration ranges of 1.0–11.5 mg L−1 at 526 and 608 nm for pefloxacin, and 0.15–1.8 mg L−1 at 526 and 608 nm for norfloxacin. Various multivariate calibration models were applied, at the two analytical wavelengths, for the simultaneous prediction of the two analytes including classical least squares (CLS), principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares (PLS), radial basis function-artificial neural network (RBF-ANN) and principal component-radial basis function-artificial neural network (PC-RBF-ANN). PLS and PC-RBF-ANN calibrations with the data collected at 526 nm, were the preferred methods—%RPET not, vert, similar 5, and LODs for pefloxacin and norfloxacin of 0.36 and 0.06 mg L−1, respectively. Then, the proposed method was applied successfully for the simultaneous determination of pefloxacin and norfloxacin present in pharmaceutical and human plasma samples. The results compared well with those from the alternative analysis by HPLC.

(-)-CGP12177 increases contractile force through beta1l-adrenoceptors but not through beta3-adrenoceptors in human right atrial myocardium

(-)-CGP12177 is a non-conventional partial agonist that causes modest and transient increases of contractile force in human atrial trabeculae (Kaumann and Molenaar, 2008). These effects are markedly increased and maintained by inhibition of phosphodiesterase PDE3. As verified with recombinant receptors, the cardiostimulant effect of (-)-CGP12177 is mediated through a site at the beta1-adrenoceptor with lower affinity (beta1LAR) compared to the site through which (-)-CGP12177 antagonizes the effects of catecholamines (beta1HAR). However, in a recent report it was proposed that the positive inotropic effects of CGP12177 are mediated through beta3-adrenoceptors (Skeberdis et al 2008). We therefore investigated whether the effects of (-)-CGP12177 on human atrial trabeculae are antagonized by the beta3-adrenoceptor-selective antagonist L-748,337 (1 microM). (-)-CGP12177 (200 nM) caused a stable increase in force which was significantly reduced by the addition of (-)-bupranolol (1 microM), P = 0.002, (basal 4.45 ± 0.78 mN, IBMX (PDE inhibitor) 5.47 ± 1.01 mN, (-)-CGP12177 9.34 ± 1.33 mN, (-)-bupranolol 5.79 ± 1.08 mN, n = 6) but not affected by the addition of L-748,337 (1 microM), P = 0.12, (basal 4.48 ± 1.32 mN, IBMX 7.15 ± 2.28 mN, (-)-CGP12177 12.51 ± 3.71 mN, L-748,337 10.90 ± 3.49 mN, n = 6). Cumulative concentration-effect curves for (-)-CGP12177 were not shifted to the right by L-748,337 (1 microM). The –logEC50M values of (-)-CGP12177 in the absence and presence of L-748,337 were 7.21±0.09 and 7.41±0.13, respectively (data from 25 trabeculae from 8 patients, P=0.2) The positive inotropic effects of (-)-CGP12177 (IBMX present) were not antagonized by L-748,337 but were blunted by (-)-bupranolol (1 microM). The results rule out an involvement of beta3-adrenoceptors in the positive inotropic effects (-)-CGP12177 in human right atrial myocardium and are consistent with mediation through beta1LAR. Kaumann A and Molenaar P (2008) Pharmacol Ther 118, 303-336 Skeberdis VA et al (2008) J Clin Invest, 118, 3219-3227

New insights into appetite, inflammation and the use of fish oil in hemodialysis patients

Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is commonly seen in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The condition is characterised by chronic, systemic low-grade inflammation which affects nutritional status by a variety of mechanisms including reducing appetite and food intake and increasing muscle catabolism. PEW is linked with co-morbidities such as cardiovascular disease, and is associated with lower quality of life, increased hospitalisations and a 6-fold increase in risk of death1. Significant gender differences have been found in the severity and effects of several markers of PEW. There have been limited studies testing the ability of anti-inflammatory agents or nutritional interventions to reduce the effects of PEW in dialysis patients. This thesis makes a significant contribution to the understanding of PEW in dialysis patients. It advances understanding of measurement techniques for two of the key components, appetite and inflammation, and explores the effect of fish oil, an anti-inflammatory agent, on markers of PEW in dialysis patients. The first part of the thesis consists of two methodological studies conducted using baseline data. The first study aims to validate retrospective ratings of hunger, desire to eat and fullness on visual analog scales (VAS) (paper and pen and electronic) as a new method of measuring appetite in dialysis patients. The second methodological study aims to assess the ability of a variety of methods available in routine practice to detect the presence of inflammation. The second part of the thesis aims to explore the effect of 12 weeks supplementation with 2g per day of Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA), a longchain fatty acid found in fish oil, on markers of PEW. A combination of biomarkers and psychomarkers of appetite and inflammation are the main outcomes being explored, with nutritional status, dietary intake and quality of life included as secondary outcomes. A lead in phase of 3 months prior to baseline was used so that each person acts as their own historical control. The study also examines whether there are gender differences in response to the treatment. Being an exploratory study, an important part of the work is to test the feasibility of the intervention, thus the level of adherence and factors associated with adherence are also presented. The studies were conducted at the hemodialysis unit of the Wesley Hospital. Participants met the following criteria: adult, stage 5 CKD on hemodialysis for at least 3 months, not expected to receive a transplant or switch to another dialysis modality during the study, absence of intellectual impairment or mental illness impairing ability to follow instructions or complete the intervention. A range of intermediate, clinical and patient-centred outcome measures were collected at baseline and 12 weeks. Inflammation was measured using five biomarkers: c-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL6), intercellular adhesion molecule (sICAM-1), vascular cell adhesion molecule (sVCAM-1) and white cell count (WCC). Subjective appetite was measured using the first question from the Appetite and Dietary Assessment (ADAT) tool and VAS for measurements of hunger, desire to eat and fullness. A novel feature of the study was the assessment of the appetite peptides leptin, ghrelin and peptide YY as biomarkers of appetite. Nutritional status/inflammation was assessed using the Malnutrition-Inflammation Score (MIS) and the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Dietary intake was measured using 3-day records. Quality of life was measured using the Kidney Disease Quality of Life Short Form version 1.3 (KDQOL-SF™ v1.3 © RAND University), which combines the Short-Form 36 (SF36) with a kidney-disease specific module2. A smaller range of these variables was available for analysis during the control phase (CRP, ADAT, dietary intake and nutritional status). Statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS version 14 (SPSS Inc, Chicago IL, USA). Analysis of the first part of the thesis involved descriptive and bivariate statistics, as well as Bland-Altman plots to assess agreement between methods, and sensitivity analysis/ROC curves to test the ability of methods to predict the presence of inflammation. The unadjusted (paired ttests) and adjusted (linear mixed model) change over time is presented for the main outcome variables of inflammation and appetite. Results are shown for the whole group followed by analyses according to gender and adherence to treatment. Due to the exploratory nature of the study, trends and clinical significance were considered as important as statistical significance. Twenty-eight patients (mean age 61±17y, 50% male, dialysis vintage 19.5 (4- 101) months) underwent baseline assessment. Seven out of 28 patients (25%) reported sub-optimal appetite (self-reported as fair, poor or very poor) despite all being well nourished (100% SGA A). Using the VAS, ratings of hunger, but not desire to eat or fullness, were significantly (p<0.05) associated with a range of relevant clinical variables including age (r=-0.376), comorbidities (r=-0.380) nutritional status (PG-SGA score, r=-0.451), inflammatory markers (CRP r=-0.383; sICAM-1 r=-0.387) and seven domains of quality of life. Patients expressed a preference for the paper and pen method of administering VAS. None of the tools (appetite, MIS, PG-SGA, albumin or iron) showed an acceptable ability to detect patients who are inflamed. It is recommended that CRP should be tested more frequently as a matter of course rather than seeking alternative methods of measuring inflammation. 27 patients completed the 12 week intervention. 20 patients were considered adherent based on changes in % plasma EPA, which rose from 1.3 (0.94)% to 5.2 (1.1)%, p<0.001, in this group. The major barriers to adherence were forgetting to take the tablets as well as their size. At 12 weeks, inflammatory markers remained steady apart from the white cell count which decreased (7.6(2.5) vs 7.0(2.2) x109/L, p=0.058) and sVCAM-1 which increased (1685(654) vs 2249(925) ng/mL, p=0.001). Subjective appetite using VAS increased (51mm to 57mm, +12%) and there was a trend towards reduction in peptide YY (660(31) vs 600(30) pg/mL, p=0.078). There were some gender differences apparent, with the following adjusted change between baseline and week 12: CRP (males -3% vs females +17%, p=0.19), IL6 (males +17% vs females +48%, p=0.77), sICAM-1 (males -5% vs females +11%, p=0.07), sVCAM-1 (males +54% vs females +19%, p=0.08) and hunger ratings (males 20% vs females -5%, p=0.18). On balance, males experienced a maintainence or reduction in three inflammatory markers and an improvement in hunger ratings, and therefore appeared to have responded better to the intervention. Compared to those who didn’t adhere, adherent patients maintained weight (mean(SE) change: +0.5(1.6) vs - 0.8(1.2) kg, p=0.052) and fat-free mass (-0.1 (1.6) vs -1.8 (1.8) kg, p=0.045). There was no difference in change between the intervention and control phase for CRP, appetite, nutritional status or dietary intake. The thesis makes a significant contribution to the evidence base for understanding of PEW in dialysis patients. It has advanced knowledge of methods of assessing inflammation and appetite. Retrospective ratings of hunger on a VAS appear to be a valid method of assessing appetite although samples which include patients with very poor appetite are required to confirm this. Supplementation with fish oil appeared to improve subjective appetite and dampen the inflammatory response. The effectiveness of the intervention is influenced by gender and adherence. Males appear to be more responsive to the primary outcome variables than females, and the quality of response is improved with better adherence. These results provide evidence to support future interventions aimed at reducing the effects of PEW in dialysis patients.

Design of Mono-symmetric LiteSteel Beam Floor Joists with Web Openings

The new cold-formed LiteSteel beam (LSB) sections have found increasing popularity in residential, industrial and commercial buildings due to their lightweight and cost-effectiveness. They have the beneficial characteristics of including torsionally rigid rectangular flanges combined with economical fabrication processes. Currently there is significant interest in using LSB sections as flexural members in floor joist systems. When used as floor joists, the LSB sections require holes in the web to provide access for inspection and various services. But there are no design methods that provide accurate predictions of the moment capacities of LSBs with web holes. In this study, the buckling and ultimate strength behaviour of LSB flexural members with web holes was investigated in detail by using a detailed parametric study based on finite element analyses with an aim to develop appropriate design rules and recommendations for the safe design of LSB floor joists. Moment capacity curves were obtained using finite element analyses including all the significant behavioural effects affecting their ultimate member capacity. The parametric study produced the required moment capacity curves of LSB section with a range of web hole combinations and spans. A suitable design method for predicting the ultimate moment capacity of LSB with web holes was finally developed. This paper presents the details of this investigation and the results

Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) coefficients 2009 revision

Background: Currently used Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) coefficients, which measure probability of survival (Ps), were derived from the Major Trauma Outcome Study (MTOS) in 1995 and are now unlikely to be optimal. This study aims to estimate new TRISS coefficients using a contemporary database of injured patients presenting to emergency departments in the United States; and to compare these against the MTOS coefficients.---------- Methods: Data were obtained from the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) and the NTDB National Sample Project (NSP). TRISS coefficients were estimated using logistic regression. Separate coefficients were derived from complete case and multistage multiple imputation analyses for each NTDB and NSP dataset. Associated Ps over Injury Severity Score values were graphed and compared by age (adult ≥ 15 years; pediatric < 15 years) and injury mechanism (blunt; penetrating) groups. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves was used to assess coefficients’ predictive performance.---------- Results: Overall 1,072,033 NTDB and 1,278,563 weighted NSP injury events were included, compared with 23,177 used in the original MTOS analyses. Large differences were seen between results from complete case and imputed analyses. For blunt mechanism and adult penetrating mechanism injuries, there were similarities between coefficients estimated on imputed samples, and marked divergences between associated Ps estimated and those from the MTOS. However, negligible differences existed between area under the receiver operating characteristic curves estimates because the overwhelming majority of patients had minor trauma and survived. For pediatric penetrating mechanism injuries, variability in coefficients was large and Ps estimates unreliable.---------- Conclusions: Imputed NTDB coefficients are recommended as the TRISS coefficients 2009 revision for blunt mechanism and adult penetrating mechanism injuries. Coefficients for pediatric penetrating mechanism injuries could not be reliably estimated.

Distribution profiles of key weather variables in Australian capital cities : implications for energy efficient building design

Local climate is a critical element in the design of energy efficient buildings. In this paper, ten years of historical weather data in Australia's eight capital cities were profiled and analysed to characterize the variations of climatic variables in Australia. The method of descriptive statistics was employed. Either the pattern of cumulative distribution and/or the profile of percentage distribution are presented. It was found that although weather variables vary with different locations, there is often a good, nearly linear relation between a weather variable and its cumulative percentage for the majority of middle part of the cumulative curves. By comparing the slopes of these distribution profiles, it may be possible to determine the relative range of changes of the particular weather variables for a given city. The implications of these distribution profiles of key weather variables on energy efficient building design are also discussed.

Bulk compressive properties of the heel fat pad during walking: a pilot investigation in plantar heel pain

Background: Altered mechanical properties of the heel pad have been implicated in the development of plantar heel pain. However, the in vivo properties of the heel pad during gait remain largely unexplored in this cohort. The aim of the current study was to characterise the bulk compressive properties of the heel pad in individuals with and without plantar heel pain while walking. ---------- Methods: The sagittal thickness and axial compressive strain of the heel pad were estimated in vivo from dynamic lateral foot radiographs acquired from nine subjects with unilateral plantar heel pain and an equivalent number of matched controls, while walking at their preferred speed. Compressive stress was derived from simultaneously acquired plantar pressure data. Principal viscoelastic parameters of the heel pad, including peak strain, secant modulus and energy dissipation (hysteresis), were estimated from subsequent stress–strain curves.---------- Findings: There was no significant difference in loaded and unloaded heel pad thickness, peak stress, peak strain, or secant and tangent modulus in subjects with and without heel pain. However, the fat pad of symptomatic feet had a significantly lower energy dissipation ratio (0.55 ± 0.17 vs. 0.69 ± 0.08) when compared to asymptomatic feet (P < .05).---------- Interpretation: Plantar heel pain is characterised by reduced energy dissipation ratio of the heel pad when measured in vivo and under physiologically relevant strain rates.

Identifying aggregate demand and supply shocks in a small open economy

The standard Blanchard-Quah (BQ) decomposition forces aggregate demand and supply shocks to be orthogonal. However, this assumption is problematic for a nation with an inflation target. The very notion of inflation targeting means that monetary policy reacts to changes in aggregate supply. This paper employs a modification of the BQ procedure that allows for correlated shifts in aggregate supply and demand. It is found that shocks to Australian aggregate demand and supply are highly correlated. The estimated shifts in the aggregate demand and supply curves are then used to measure the effects of inflation targeting on the Australian inflation rate and level of GDP.

Guided chaos : path planning and control for a UAV-forced landing

In recent years, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been widely used in combat, and their potential applications in civil and commercial roles are also receiving considerable attention by industry and the research community. There are numerous published reports of UAVs used in Earth science missions [1], fire-fighting [2], and border security [3] trials, with other speculative deployments, including applications in agriculture, communications, and traffic monitoring. However, none of these UAVs can demonstrate an equivalent level of safety to manned aircraft, particularly in the case of an engine failure, which would require an emergency or forced landing. This may be arguably the main factor that has prevented these UAV trials from becoming full-scale commercial operations, as well as restricted operations of civilian UAVs to only within segregated airspace.

Secondary curve behaviour in Lenke IC class adolescent idiopathic scoliosis following video assisted thoracoscopic spinal fusion

Introduction. Ideally after selective thoracic fusion for Lenke Class IC (i.e. major thoracic / secondary lumbar) curves, the lumbar spine will spontaneously accommodate to the corrected position of the thoracic curve, thereby achieving a balanced spine, avoiding the need for fusion of lumbar spinal segments1. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the behaviour of the lumbar curve in Lenke IC class adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) following video-assisted thoracoscopic spinal fusion and instrumentation (VATS) of the major thoracic curve. Methods. A retrospective review of 22 consecutive patients with AIS who underwent VATS by a single surgeon was conducted. The results were compared to published literature examining the behaviour of the secondary lumbar curve where other surgical approaches were employed. Results. Twenty-two patients (all female) with AIS underwent VATS. All major thoracic curves were right convex. The average age at surgery was 14 years (range 10 to 22 years). On average 6.7 levels (6 to 8) were instrumented. The mean follow-up was 25.1 months (6 to 36). The pre-operative major thoracic Cobb angle mean was 53.8° (40° to 75°). The pre-operative secondary lumbar Cobb angle mean was 43.9° (34° to 55°). On bending radiographs, the secondary curve corrected to 11.3° (0° to 35°). The rib hump mean measurement was 15.0° (7° to 21°). At latest follow-up the major thoracic Cobb angle measured on average 27.2° (20° to 41°) (p<0.001 – univariate ANOVA) and the mean secondary lumbar curve was 27.3° (15° to 42°) (p<0.001). This represented an uninstrumented secondary curve correction factor of 37.8%. The mean rib hump measured was 6.5° (2° to 15°) (p<0.001). The results above were comparable to published series when open surgery was performed. Discussion. VATS is an effective method of correcting major thoracic curves with secondary lumbar curves. The behaviour of the secondary lumbar curve is consistent with published series when open surgery, both anterior and posterior, is performed.