Sticky credit spreads, macroeconomic activity and equity market volatility

We uncover high persistence in credit spread series that can obscure the relationship between the theoretical determinants of credit risk and observed credit spreads. We use a Markovswitching model, which also captures the stability (low frequency changes) of credit ratings, to show why credit spreads may continue to respond to past levels of credit risk, even though the state of the economy has changed. A bivariate model of credit spreads and either macroeconomic activity or equity market volatility detects large and significant correlations that are consistent with theory but have not been observed in previous studies. © 2010 Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.

Wealth shocks, credit-supply shocks, and asset allocation:evidence from household and firm portfolios

We use a unique dataset with bank clients’ security holdings for all German banks to examine how macroeconomic shocks affect asset allocation preferences of households and non-financial firms. Our analysis focuses on two alternative mechanisms which can influence portfolio choice: wealth shocks, which are represented by the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area, and credit-supply shocks which arise from reductions in borrowing abilities during bank distress. While households with large holdings of securities from stressed Euro area countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) de-crease the degree of concentration in their security portfolio as a result of the Euro area crisis, non-financial firms with similar levels of holdings from stressed Euro area countries do not. Credit-supply shocks at the bank level result in lower concentration, for both households and non-financial corporations. Only shocks to corporate credit bear ramifications on bank clients’ portfolio concentration. Our results are robust to falsification tests, and instrumental variables estimation.

Are few-mode fibres a practical solution to the capacity crunch?

In this paper, we compare the nonlinear Shannon capacity of few-mode fibre systems operating with spatial-temporal digital signal processing to the nonlinear Shannon capacity of single-mode fibre systems operating with spectral-temporal digital signal processing. Combining these results with estimates of digital signal processing complexity for each option offers valuable insights to system designers.

The effect of timeliness and credit ratings on the information content of earnings announcements

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of timeliness and credit ratings on the information content of the earnings announcements of Greek listed firms from 2001 to 2008. Using the classical event study methodology and regression analysis, we find that firms tend to release good news on time and are inclined to delay the release of bad news. We also provide evidence that the level of corporate risk differentiates the information content of earnings according to the credit rating category. Specifically, firms displaying high creditworthiness enjoy positive excess returns on earnings announcement dates. In contrast, firms with low creditworthiness undergo significant share price erosions on earnings announcement days. We also observe a substitution effect between timeliness and credit ratings in relation to the information content of earnings announcements. Specifically, we find that as the credit category of earnings-announcing firms improves, the informational role of timeliness is mitigated.

Communication networks beyond the capacity crunch

This issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Part A represents a summary of the recent discussion meeting 'Communication networks beyond the capacity crunch'. The purpose of the meeting was to establish the nature of the capacity crunch, estimate the time scales associated with it and to begin to find solutions to enable continued growth in a post-crunch era. The meeting confirmed that, in addition to a capacity shortage within a single optical fibre, many other 'crunches' are foreseen in the field of communications, both societal and technical. Technical crunches identified included the nonlinear Shannon limit, wireless spectrum, distribution of 5G signals (front haul and back haul), while societal influences included net neutrality, creative content generation and distribution and latency, and finally energy and cost. The meeting concluded with the observation that these many crunches are genuine and may influence our future use of technology, but encouragingly noted that research and business practice are already moving to alleviate many of the negative consequences.

Wealth shocks, credit-supply shocks, and asset allocation:evidence from household and firm portfolios

We use a unique dataset with bank clients’ security holdings for all German banks to examine how macroeconomic shocks affect asset allocation preferences of households and non-financial firms. Our analysis focuses on two alternative mechanisms which can influence portfolio choice: wealth shocks, which are represented by the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, and credit-supply shocks which arise from reductions in borrowing abilities during bank distress. We document het- erogeneous responses to these two types of shocks. While households with large holdings of secu- rities from stressed Eurozone countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) decrease the degree of concentration in their security portfolio as a result of the Eurozone crisis, non-financial firms with similar levels of holdings from stressed Eurozone countries do not. Credit-supply shocks at the bank level (caused by bank distress) result in lower concentration, for both households and non-financial corporations. We also show that only shocks to corporate credit bear ramifications on bank clients’ portfolio concentration, while shocks in retail credit are inconsequential. Our results are robust to falsification tests, propensity score matching techniques, and instrumental variables estimation.

Out of credit: Evaluating the impact of the EU structural funds on Hungarian small business growth and access to finance

Totaling EUR 29 billion, Hungary is in the midst of implementing its largest economic development program in its young democratic history. At the center of the European Union led development program is an effort to revitalize and reequip Hungary’s languishing small and medium sized enterprises (SME), long the country's heart of employment. This paper examines the efficiency and impact of two Structural Fund's instruments to enhance SME development – ECOP 2.1.1 and JEREMIE. A survey of 1275 SME and interviews with dozens of top policy-makers paint a flawed development program in dire need of reform. Despite this, empirical analysis suggests JEREMIE funds may have dampened the effects of the financial crisis and are crucial for the continued liquidity of SME, who have been particularly hit hard by the world financial crisis.

Megtakarítások és külső finanszírozás az amerikai gazdaságban. A hitelpiaci válság háttere (1997-2007) (Savings and external financing in the American economy. The background to the credit-market crisis (1997–2007))

A tanulmány nem az aktuális hitelpiaci válság enyhítésének kérdésével foglalkozik, hanem az amerikai gazdaság elmúlt négy évtizedének általános és az utolsó tíz évének konkrét beruházási-megtakarítási és növekedési tendenciáit igyekszik feltárni. Azt vizsgálja, hogy milyen mélyebb, belföldi eredetű szerkezeti okai vannak a nemzetközivé dagadt jelzáloghitel-válságnak. A cikk a nyitott gazdaság külső finanszírozással összefüggő mérlegazonosságainak alapján arra a következtetésre jut, hogy az ingatlanpiaci visszaesés és a kibocsátás zsugorodása az Egyesült Államok gazdaságában már több mint másfél évtizede kialakult kedvezőtlen, de még tovább romló belföldi megtakarítási folyamatok következménye. A jelzálogpiac krízise és a lakásépítés drámai visszaesése a túlfogyasztásra és túlhitelezésre ösztönző pénzügyi környezet eredménye. A lakáspiaci és a hitelezési ciklusok pénzügyi innovációkkal történő megnyújtása inkább növelte, mint csökkentette a kibocsátásingadozás érzékenységét. A legfőbb hitelezők Kína, Japán, Németország inkább dolláralapú amerikai vállalati felvásárlásokkal ellensúlyozták a dollárgyengülésből elszenvedett veszteségeiket. 1997-2007 között az Amerikából külföldön befektetett dolláraktívák - javarészt a valuta leértékelődése nyomán - jelentős hozamemelkedést élveztek, és számottevően tompították a belföldön képződött jövedelmek csökkenését. A dollárleértékelődés az eszköz- (és nemcsak az áruexport) oldalon is előnyöket hozott számos nagyvállalatnak. / === / Rather than dealing with the immediate policy steps to dampen the crisis, this paper attempts to reveal the worsening savings/consumption pattern of the US economy over the last ten years. Based on the closed logic of open-economy GDP-accounting, it argues that the current crisis is deeply rooted in shrinking public and private savings trends discernible as early as 1997. The current mortgage-market crisis and deep fall in new residential housing are products of a distorted financial environment that encourages over-borrowing and over-consumption. Expansion of the credit cycle through successive financial innovations has increased, not decreased output volatility. But the main foreign lenders to the US—Japan, China and Germany—have managed to offset their losses on US securities by buying into US companies. Large US firms have also benefited from rapid dollar depreciation as USD-denominated yields on their foreign assets experienced strong run-ups. The weak dollar has also helped American firms with large assets on foreign markets. So there were strong benefits for the US, not just on the goods-export side, but on the asset side, an aspect rarely emphasized.

A fogyasztói hitelszerződések új szabályai (New regulations the credit agreements for consumers)

A fogyasztói hitelszerződések jogát az Európai Unión belül a 2008/48/EK irányelv szabályozta újra, amely a magyar jogalkotó számára is a belső jogba történő átültetés kötelezettségét írta elő. Ennek az implementációnak az eredményeként született meg a fogyasztónak nyújtott hitelről szóló 2009. évi CLXII. törvény. Jelen cikk a jelzáloghitelek szabályozására vonatkozó elképzeléseket, majd a hiteltermékek reklámozására – kereskedelmi kommunikációjára – irányadó szabályokat vizsgálja meg részletesebben. Ennek során bemutatja a hiteltermékek reklámozásáról szóló, hatályos jogszabályokban fellelhető ellentmondásokat is. Ezt követően a szerződéskötést megelőző tájékoztatási kötelezettséget, valamint az előtörlesztés intézménye körüli kérdéseket elemzi. Végül alátámasztani kívánja azt az álláspontot, hogy a fogyasztói kezességi szerződésekre is indokolt lett volna kiterjeszteni az új irányelvben foglalt védelmi szintet, a jelzáloggal fedezett hitelekre azonban nem, hiszen ezekre vonatkozóan további uniós jogalkotási lépések várhatóak. / === / The consumer protection law is governed by Directive 2008/48/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and was implemented to the Hungarian legal system through the Act on Credit Provided for Consumers (162/2009). This article aims at observing the relevant provisions on mortgage as well as the commercials and advertisements of mortgages. This article will show that there are many confl icts within the relevant legal provisions and will further examine the obligation to information and the institution of early repayment. The author of this article believes that the protection created by the new directive should have been extended to guarantee contracts as well, but not to hypothec contracts as the latter are expected to be governed through future EU legislation.

Can Europe recover without credit?

Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons. First, creditless recoveries are much less common in high-income countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored. Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery and there has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return.