Employment risk, unemployment insurance and search strategies: a disaggregated equilibrium approach with application to the Swiss labour market in the 1990-ies

The Organization of the Thesis The remainder of the thesis comprises five chapters and a conclusion. The next chapter formalizes the envisioned theory into a tractable model. Section 2.2 presents a formal description of the model economy: the individual heterogeneity, the individual objective, the UI setting, the population dynamics and the equilibrium. The welfare and efficiency criteria for qualifying various equilibrium outcomes are proposed in section 2.3. The fourth section shows how the model-generated information can be computed. Chapter 3 transposes the model from chapter 2 in conditions that enable its use in the analysis of individual labor market strategies and their implications for the labor market equilibrium. In section 3.2 the Swiss labor market data sets, stylized facts, and the UI system are presented. The third section outlines and motivates the parameterization method. In section 3.4 the model's replication ability is evaluated and some aspects of the parameter choice are discussed. Numerical solution issues can be found in the appendix. Chapter 4 examines the determinants of search-strategic behavior in the model economy and its implications for the labor market aggregates. In section 4.2, the unemployment duration distribution is examined and related to search strategies. Section 4.3 shows how the search- strategic behavior is influenced by the UI eligibility and section 4.4 how it is determined by individual heterogeneity. The composition effects generated by search strategies in labor market aggregates are examined in section 4.5. The last section evaluates the model's replication of empirical unemployment escape frequencies reported in Sheldon [67]. Chapter 5 applies the model economy to examine the effects on the labor market equilibrium of shocks to the labor market risk structure, to the deep underlying labor market structure and to the UI setting. Section 5.2 examines the effects of the labor market risk structure on the labor market equilibrium and the labor market strategic behavior. The effects of alterations in the labor market deep economic structural parameters, i.e. individual preferences and production technology, are shown in Section 5.3. Finally, the UI setting impacts on the labor market are studied in Section 5.4. This section also evaluates the role of the UI authority monitoring and the differences in the Way changes in the replacement rate and the UI benefit duration affect the labor market. In chapter 6 the model economy is applied in counterfactual experiments to assess several aspects of the Swiss labor market movements in the nineties. Section 6.2 examines the two equilibria characterizing the Swiss labor market in the nineties, the " growth" equilibrium with a "moderate" UI regime and the "recession" equilibrium with a more "generous" UI. Section 6.3 evaluates the isolated effects of the structural shocks, while the isolated effects of the UI reforms are analyzed in section 6.4. Particular dimensions of the UI reforms, the duration, replacement rate and the tax rate effects, are studied in section 6.5, while labor market equilibria without benefits are evaluated in section 6.6. In section 6.7 the structural and institutional interactions that may act as unemployment amplifiers are discussed in view of the obtained results. A welfare analysis based on individual welfare in different structural and UI settings is presented in the eighth section. Finally, the results are related to more favorable unemployment trends after 1997. The conclusion evaluates the features embodied in the model economy with respect to the resulting model dynamics to derive lessons from the model design." The thesis ends by proposing guidelines for future improvements of the model and directions for further research.

Essays on the treatment of cash flows under stochastic interest rates

Abstract This paper shows how to calculate recursively the moments of the accumulated and discounted value of cash flows when the instantaneous rates of return follow a conditional ARMA process with normally distributed innovations. We investigate various moment based approaches to approximate the distribution of the accumulated value of cash flows and we assess their performance through stochastic Monte-Carlo simulations. We discuss the potential use in insurance and especially in the context of Asset-Liability Management of pension funds.

Circulating carotenoids and risk of breast cancer: pooled analysis of eight prospective studies.

Background Carotenoids, micronutrients in fruits and vegetables, may reduce breast cancer risk. Most, but not all, past studies of circulating carotenoids and breast cancer have found an inverse association with at least one carotenoid, although the specific carotenoid has varied across studies. Methods We conducted a pooled analysis of eight cohort studies comprising more than 80% of the world's published prospective data on plasma or serum carotenoids and breast cancer, including 3055 case subjects and 3956 matched control subjects. To account for laboratory differences and examine population differences across studies, we recalibrated participant carotenoid levels to a common standard by reassaying 20 plasma or serum samples from each cohort together at the same laboratory. Using conditional logistic regression, adjusting for several breast cancer risk factors, we calculated relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using quintiles defined among the control subjects from all studies. All P values are two-sided. Results Statistically significant inverse associations with breast cancer were observed for α-carotene (top vs bottom quintile RR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.71 to 1.05, Ptrend = .04), β-carotene (RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.70 to 0.98, Ptrend = .02), lutein+zeaxanthin (RR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.70 to 1.01, Ptrend = .05), lycopene (RR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.99, Ptrend = .02), and total carotenoids (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.68 to 0.96, Ptrend = .01). β-Cryptoxanthin was not statistically significantly associated with risk. Tests for heterogeneity across studies were not statistically significant. For several carotenoids, associations appeared stronger for estrogen receptor negative (ER(-)) than for ER(+) tumors (eg, β-carotene: ER(-): top vs bottom quintile RR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.77, Ptrend = .001; ER(+): RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.66 to 1.04, Ptrend = .06; Pheterogeneity = .01). Conclusions This comprehensive prospective analysis suggests women with higher circulating levels of α-carotene, β-carotene, lutein+zeaxanthin, lycopene, and total carotenoids may be at reduced risk of breast cancer.

Maturation of lymph node fibroblastic reticular cells from myofibroblastic precursors is critical for antiviral immunity.

The stromal scaffold of the lymph node (LN) paracortex is built by fibroblastic reticular cells (FRCs). Conditional ablation of lymphotoxin-β receptor (LTβR) expression in LN FRCs and their mesenchymal progenitors in developing LNs revealed that LTβR-signaling in these cells was not essential for the formation of LNs. Although T cell zone reticular cells had lost podoplanin expression, they still formed a functional conduit system and showed enhanced expression of myofibroblastic markers. However, essential immune functions of FRCs, including homeostatic chemokine and interleukin-7 expression, were impaired. These changes in T cell zone reticular cell function were associated with increased susceptibility to viral infection. Thus, myofibroblasic FRC precursors are able to generate the basic T cell zone infrastructure, whereas LTβR-dependent maturation of FRCs guarantees full immunocompetence and hence optimal LN function during infection.

Modelos de tasas de interes en Chile: una revisión

Con este trabajo revisamos los Modelos de niveles de las tasas de intereses en Chile. Además de los Modelos de Nivel tradicionales por Chan, Karoly, Longstaff y Lijadoras (1992) en EE. UU, y Parisi (1998) en Chile, por el método de Probabilidad Maximun permitimos que la volatilidad condicional también incluya los procesos inesperados de la información (el modelo GARCH ) y también que la volatilidad sea la función del nivel de la tasa de intereses (modelo TVP-NIVELE) como en Brenner, Harjes y la Crona (1996). Para esto usamos producciones de mercado de bonos de reconocimiento, en cambio las producciones mensuales medias de subasta PDBC, y la ampliación del tamaño y la frecuencia de la muestra a 4 producciones semanales con términos(condiciones) diferentes a la madurez: 1 año, 5 años, 10 años y 15 años. Los resultados principales del estudio pueden ser resumidos en esto: la volatilidad de los cambios inesperados de las tarifas depende positivamente del nivel de las tarifas, sobre todo en el modelo de TVP-NIVEL. Obtenemos pruebas de reversión tacañas, tal que los incrementos en las tasas de intereses no eran independientes, contrariamente a lo obtenido por Brenner. en EE. UU. Los modelos de NIVELES no son capaces de ajustar apropiadamente la volatilidad en comparación con un modelo GARCH (1,1), y finalmente, el modelo de TVP-NIVEL no vence los resultados del modelo GARCH (1,1)

Linear least squares estimation of the first order moving average parameter

We propose an iterative procedure to minimize the sum of squares function which avoids the nonlinear nature of estimating the first order moving average parameter and provides a closed form of the estimator. The asymptotic properties of the method are discussed and the consistency of the linear least squares estimator is proved for the invertible case. We perform various Monte Carlo experiments in order to compare the sample properties of the linear least squares estimator with its nonlinear counterpart for the conditional and unconditional cases. Some examples are also discussed

Buy-and-Hold Strategies and Comonotonic Approximations

[cat] En aquest article estudiem estratègies “comprar i mantenir” per a problemes d’optimitzar la riquesa final en un context multi-període. Com que la riquesa final és una suma de variables aleatòries dependents, on cadascuna d’aquestes correspon a una quantitat de capital que s’ha invertit en un actiu particular en una data determinada, en primer lloc considerem aproximacions que redueixen l’aleatorietat multivariant al cas univariant. A continuació, aquestes aproximacions es fan servir per determinar les estratègies “comprar i mantenir” que optimitzen, per a un nivell de probabilitat donat, el VaR i el CLTE de la funció de distribució de la riquesa final. Aquest article complementa el treball de Dhaene et al. (2005), on es van considerar estratègies de reequilibri constant.

Specific fibroblastic niches in secondary lymphoid organs orchestrate distinct Notch-regulated immune responses.

Fibroblast-like cells of secondary lymphoid organs (SLO) are important for tissue architecture. In addition, they regulate lymphocyte compartmentalization through the secretion of chemokines, and participate in the orchestration of appropriate cell-cell interactions required for adaptive immunity. Here, we provide data demonstrating the functional importance of SLO fibroblasts during Notch-mediated lineage specification and immune response. Genetic ablation of the Notch ligand Delta-like (DL)1 identified splenic fibroblasts rather than hematopoietic or endothelial cells as niche cells, allowing Notch 2-driven differentiation of marginal zone B cells and of Esam(+) dendritic cells. Moreover, conditional inactivation of DL4 in lymph node fibroblasts resulted in impaired follicular helper T cell differentiation and, consequently, in reduced numbers of germinal center B cells and absence of high-affinity antibodies. Our data demonstrate previously unknown roles for DL ligand-expressing fibroblasts in SLO niches as drivers of multiple Notch-mediated immune differentiation processes.

A two-level analysis of the determinants of direct democratic choices in European, immigration and foreign policy in Switzerland

This article employs a unique data set - covering 25 popular votes on foreign, European and immigration/asylum policy held between 1992 and 2006 in Switzerland - in order to examine the conditional impact of context upon utilitarian, cultural, political and cognitive determinants of individual attitudes toward international openness. Our results reveal clear patterns of cross-level interactions between individual determinants and the project-related context of the vote. Thus, although party cues and political competence have a strong impact on individuals' support for international openness, this impact is substantially mediated by the type of coalition that is operating within the party elite. Similarly, subjective utilitarian and cultural considerations influence the voters' decision in interaction with the content of the proposal submitted to the voters as well as with the framing of the voting campaign.

The congenital soidum diarrhea and Spint2: from the molecules to the disease

La diarrhée congénitale de sodium est une maladie génétique très rare. Les enfants touchés par cette maladie présentent une diarrhée aqueuse sévère accompagnée d'une perte fécale de sodium et bicarbonates causant une déshydratation hyponatrémique et une acidose métabolique. Des analyses génétiques ont identifié des mutations du gène Spint2 comme cause de cette maladie. Le gène Spint2 code pour un inhibiteur de sérine protéase transmembranaire exprimé dans divers épithéliums tels que ceux du tube digestif ou des tubules rénaux. Le rôle physiologique de Spint2 n'est pas connu. De plus, aucun partenaire physiologique de Spint2 n'a été identifié et le mécanisme d'inhibition par Spint2 nous est peu connu. Le but de ce projet est donc d'obtenir de plus amples informations concernant la fonction et le rôle de Spint2 dans le contexte de la diarrhée congénitale de sodium, cela afin de mieux comprendre la physiopathologie des diarrhées et peut-être d'identifier de nouvelles cibles thérapeutiques. Un test fonctionnel dans les ovocytes de Xenopus a identifié les sérine protéases transmembranaires CAPI et Tmprssl3 comme potentielles cibles de Spint2 dans la mesure où ces deux protéases n'étaient plus bloquées par le mutant de Spint2 Y163C qui est associé avec la diarrhée congénitale de sodium. Des expériences fonctionnelles et biochimiques plus poussées suggèrent que l'inhibition de Tmprssl3 par Spint2 est le résultat d'une interaction complexe entre ces deux protéines. Les effets des sérine protéases transmembranaires sur l'échangeur Na+-H+ NHE3, qui pourrait être impliqué dans la pathogenèse de la diarrhée congénitale de sodium ont aussi été testés. Un clivage spécifique de NHE3 par la sérine protéase transmembranaire Tmprss3 a été observé lors d'expériences biochimiques. Malheureusement, la pertinence physiologique de ces résultats n'a pas pu être évaluée in vivo, étant donné que le modèle de souris knockout conditionnel de Spint2 que nous avons créé ne montrait une réduction de l'expression de Spint2 que de 50% et aucun phénotype. En résumé, ce travail met en évidence deux nouveaux partenaires possibles de Spint2, ainsi qu'une potentielle régulation de NHE3 par des sérine protéases transmembranaires. Des expériences supplémentaires faites dans des modèles animaux et lignées cellulaires sont requises pour évaluer la pertinence physiologique de ces données et pour obtenir de plus amples informations au sujet de Spint2 et de la diarrhée congénitale de sodium. - The congenital sodium diarrhea is a very rare genetic disease. Children affected by this condition suffer from a severe diarrhea characterized by watery stools with a high fecal loss of sodium and bicarbonates, resulting in hyponatremic dehydration and metabolic acidosis. Genetic analyses have identified mutations in the Spint2 gene as a cause of this disease. The spint2 gene encodes a transmembrane serine protease inhibitor expressed in various epithelial tissues including the gastro-intestinal tract and renal tubules. The physiological role of Spint2 is completely unknown. In addition, physiological partners of Spint2 are still to be identified and the mechanism of inhibition by Spint2 remains elusive. Therefore, the aim of this project was to get insights about the function and the role of Spint2 in the context of the congenital sodium diarrhea in order to better understand the pathophysiology of diarrheas and maybe identify new therapeutic targets. A functional assay in Xenopus oocytes identified the membrane-bound serine proteases CAPI and Tmprssl3 as potential targets of Spint2 because both proteases were no longer inhibited by the mutant Spint2 Y163C that has been associated with the congenital diarrhea. Further functional and biochemical experiments suggested that the inhibition of Tmprssl3 by Spint2 occurs though a complex interaction between both proteins. The effects of membrane-bound serine proteases on the Na+-H+ exchanger NHE3, which has been proposed to be involved in the pathogenesis of the congenital sodium diarrhea, were also tested. A specific cleavage of NHE3 by the membrane-bound serine protease Tmprss3 was observed in biochemical experiments. Unfortunately, the physiological relevance of these results could not be assessed in vivo since the conditional Spint2 knockout mouse model that we generated showed a reduction in Spint2 expression of only 50% and displayed no phenotype. Briefly, this work provides two new potential partners of Spint2 and emphasizes a putative regulation of NHE3 by membrane-bound serine proteases. Further work done in animal models and cell lines is required to assess the physiological relevance of these results and to obtain additional data about Spint2 and the congenital diarrhea.

Role of β-catenin and γ-catenin in haematopoiesis : Generation of floxed Delta like 4 gene targeted mice

Résumé La voie de signalisation de Wnt est extrêmement conservée au cours de l'évolution. Les protéines Wnt sont des molécules sécrétées qui se lient à la famille de récepteurs Frizzled. Cette interaction mène à la stabilisation de la protéine β-caténine, qui va s'accumuler dans le cytoplasme puis migrer dans le noyau où elle peut s'hétérodimériser avec les facteurs de transcription de la famille TCF/LEF. Il a été démontré que cette voie de signalisation joue un rôle important durant la lymphopoïèse et de récents résultats suggèrent un rôle clé de cette voie dans le renouvellement des Cellules Souches Hématopoïétique (CSH). Des études se basant sur un système de surexpression de protéines montrent clairement que la voie Wnt peut influencer l'hématopoïèse. Cependant, le rôle de la protéine β-caténine dans le système hématopoïétique n'a jamais été testé directement. Ce projet de thèse se propose d'étudier la fonction de la protéine β-caténine par sa délétion inductible via le système Cre-loxP. De façon surprenante, nous avons pu démontrer que les progéniteurs de la moelle osseuse, déficients en β-caténine, ne montrent aucune altération dans leur capacité à s'auto-renouveler et/ou à reconstituer toutes les lignées hématopoïétiques (myéloïde, érythroïde et lymphoïde) dans les souris-chimères. De plus, le développement, la survie des thymocytes ainsi que la prolifération des cellules T périphériques induite par un antigène, sont indépendants de β-caténine. Ces résultats suggèrent soit que la protéine β-caténine ne joue pas un rôle primordial dans le système hématopoiétique, soit que son absence pourrait être compensée par une autre protéine. Un candidat privilégié susceptible de se substituer à β-caténine, serait plakoglobine, aussi connu sous le nom de γ-caténine. En effet, ces deux protéines partagent de multiples caractéristiques structurelles. Afin de démontrer que la protéine γ-caténine peut compenser l'absence de β-caténine, nous avons généré des souris dans lesquelles, le système hématopoïétique est déficient pour ces deux protéines. Cette déficience combinée de β- caténine et γ-caténine ne perturbe pas la capacité des Cellules Souche Hématopoïétique-Long Terme (CSH-LT) de se renouveler, par contre elle agit sur un progéniteur précoce déjà différencié de la moelle osseuse. Ces résultats mettent en évidence que la protéine γ-caténine est capable de compenser l'absence de protéine β-caténine dans le système hématopoïétique. Par conséquent, ce travail contribue à une meilleure connaissance de la cascade Wnt dans l'hématopoïèse. Summary The canonical Wnt signal transduction pathway is a developmentally highly conserved. Wnts are secreted molecules which bind to the family of Frizzled receptors in a complex with the low density lipoprotein receptor related protein (LRP-5/6). This initial activation step leads to the stabilization and accumulation of β-catenin, first in the cytoplasm and subsequently in the nucleus where it forms heterodimers with TCF/LEF transcription factor family members. Wnt signalling has been shown to be important during early lymphopoiesis and has more recently, been suggested to be a key player in self-renewal of haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). Although mostly gain of function studies indicate that components of the Wnt signalling pathway can influence the haematopoietic system, the role of β-catenin has never been directly investigated. The aim of this thesis project is to investigate the putatively critical role of β-catenin in vivo using the Cre-loxP mediated conditional loss of function approach. Surprisingly, β-catenin deficient bone marrow (BM) progenitors arc not impaired in their ability to self-renew and/or to reconstitute all haematopoietic lineages (myeloid, erythroid and lymphoid) in both mixed and straight bone marrow chimeras. In addition, both thymocyte development and survival, and antigen-induced proliferation of peripheral T cells are β- catenin independent. Our results do not necessarily exclude the possibility of an important function for β-catenin mediated Wnt signalling in the haematopoietic system, it rather raises the question that β-catenin is compensated for by another protein. A prime candidate that may take over the function of β-catenin in its absence, is the close relative plakoglobin, also know as γ-catenin. This protein shares multiple structural features with β-catenin. In order to investigate whether γ-catenin can compensate for the loss of β-catenin we have generated mice in which the haematopoietic compartment is deficient for both proteins. Combined deficiency of β-catenin and γ-catenin does not perturb Long Term-Haematopoietic Stem Cells (LT-HSC) self renewal, but affects an already lineage committed progenitor population within the BM. Our results demonstrate that y-catenin can indeed compensate for the loss of β-catenin within the haematopoietie system.

Stabilised beta-catenin in postnatal ventricular myocardium leads to dilated cardiomyopathy and premature death.

Beta-catenin is a component of the intercalated disc in cardiomyocytes, but can also be involved in signalling and activation of gene transcription. We wanted to determine how long-term changes in beta-catenin expression levels would affect mature cardiomyocytes. Conditional transgenic mice that either lacked beta-catenin or that expressed a non-degradable form of beta-catenin in the adult ventricle were created. While mice lacking beta-catenin in the ventricle do not have an overt phenotype, mice expressing a non-degradable form develop dilated cardiomyopathy and do not survive beyond 5 months. A detailed analysis could reveal that this phenotype is correlated with a distinct localisation of beta-catenin in adult cardiomyocytes, which cannot be detected in the nucleus, no matter how much protein is present. Our report is the first study that addresses long-term effects of either the absence of beta-catenin or its stabilisation on ventricular cardiomyocytes and it suggests that beta-catenin's role in the nucleus may be of little significance in the healthy adult heart.

Influence of HIV-related immunodeficiency on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate HIV-related immunodeficiency as a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among persons infected with HIV, while controlling for the effect of frequent coinfection with hepatitis C and B viruses. DESIGN: A case-control study nested in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: Twenty-six HCC patients were identified in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study or through linkage with Swiss Cancer Registries, and were individually matched to 251 controls according to Swiss HIV Cohort Study centre, sex, HIV-transmission category, age and year at enrollment. Odds ratios and corresponding confidence intervals were estimated by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: All HCC patients were positive for hepatitis B surface antigen or antibodies against hepatitis C virus. HCC patients included 14 injection drug users (three positive for hepatitis B surface antigen and 13 for antibodies against hepatitis C virus) and 12 men having sex with men/heterosexual/other (11 positive for hepatitis B surface antigen, three for antibodies against hepatitis C virus), revealing a strong relationship between HIV transmission route and hepatitis viral type. Latest CD4+ cell count [Odds ratio (OR) per 100 cells/mul decrease = 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.68] and CD4+ cell count percentage (OR per 10% decrease = 1.65, 95% CI 1.01-2.71) were significantly associated with HCC. The effects of CD4+ cell count were concentrated among men having sex with men/heterosexual/other rather than injecting drug users. Highly active antiretroviral therapy use was not significantly associated with HCC risk (OR for ever versus never = 0.59, 95% confidence interval 0.18-1.91). CONCLUSION: Lower CD4+ cell counts increased the risk for HCC among persons infected with HIV, an effect that was particularly evident for hepatitis B virus-related HCC arising in non-injecting drug users.

Is the impact of public investment neutral across the regional income distribution?: evidence from Mexico

This paper investigates the contribution of public investment to the reduction of regional inqualities, with a specific application to Mexico. We use quantile regressions to examine the impact of public investment on regional disparities according to the position of each region in the conditional distribution of regional income. Results confirm the hypothesis that regional inequalities can indeed be atrributed to the regional distribution of public investment, where the observed pattern shows that public investment mainly helped to reduce regional inequalities between the richest regions

Educational attainment and timing of fertility decisions

This paper focuses on timing of fertility decisions, conditional on the level of educational attainment of parents. Timing of fertility and educational attainment of parents rationalize the negative relationship observed in the data between hourly wages and childbearing. It is shown how the recent evolution in total fertility rates observed in developed countries could be in part the result of a transition from an early childbearing regime to a late childbearing regime. I develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in order to understand the joint determination of timing of childbearing decisions together with other household economic decisions in a life cycle framework. I show how idiosyncratic uncertainty might have asymmetric efects on completed fertility depending on timing of childbearing, generating the diferences in completed fertility observed between households that difer in their level of educational attainment.