Intraday and Weekend Volatility Patterns- Implications for Option Pricing

This study examines the intraday and weekend volatility on the German DAX. The intraday volatility is partitioned into smaller intervals and compared to a whole day’s volatility. The estimated intraday variance is U-shaped and the weekend variance is estimated to 19 % of a normal trading day. The patterns in the intraday and weekend volatility are used to develop an extension to the Black and Scholes formula to form a new time basis. Calendar or trading days are commonly used for measuring time in option pricing. The Continuous Time using Discrete Approximations model (CTDA) developed in this study uses a measure of time with smaller intervals, approaching continuous time. The model presented accounts for the lapse of time during trading only. Arbitrage pricing suggests that the option price equals the expected cost of hedging volatility during the option’s remaining life. In this model, time is allowed to lapse as volatility occurs on an intraday basis. The measure of time is modified in CTDA to correct for the non-constant volatility and to account for the patterns in volatility.

Overconfidence and investor size

Recent research documents that institutional or large investors act as antagonists to other investors by showing opposite behavior following disclosure of new information. Using an extremely comprehensive official transactions data set from Finland, we set out to explore the interrelation between investor size and behavior. More specifically, we test whether investor size is positively (negatively) correlated with investor reaction following positive (negative) news. We document robust evidence of that investor size affects investor behavior under new information, as larger investors on average react more positively (negatively) to good (bad) news than smaller investors. In the light of this study it seems increasingly feasible that several recent findings of heterogeneous investor behavior are functions of differences in overconfidence.

On the Importance of Mutual Fund Families in Emerging Markets

This study contributes to the mutual fund literature by looking at performance persistence on a fund family level, allowing for individual equity, bond and balanced funds to be included under single family umbrellas. The study is conducted on the emerging Finnish mutual fund market, an environment in which the importance of superior fund family teams is likely to be accentuated. Using both non–parametric and parametric tests we find robust evidence of performance persistence for the fund families. Persistence is particularly strong in the first half of the investigation period, which highlights the importance of fund families at early stages of market development.

Volatility Smile Dynamics in Scenario Analysis

The objective of this paper is to suggest a method that accounts for the impact of the volatility smile dynamics when performing scenario analysis for a portfolio consisting of vanilla options. As the volatility smile is documented to change at least with the level of implied at-the-money volatility, a suitable model is here included in the calculation process of the simulated market scenarios. By constructing simple portfolios of index options and comparing the ex ante risk exposure measured using different pricing methods to realized market values, ex post, the improvements of the incorporation of the model are monitored. The analyzed examples in the study generate results that statistically support that the most accurate scenarios are those calculated using the model accounting for the dynamics of the smile. Thus, we show that the differences emanating from the volatility smile are apparent and should be accounted for and that the methodology presented herein is one suitable alternative for doing so.

Swedish Premium Pension Funds: Attributes and Performance

This study investigates the relationship between fund attributes and performance. The focus is on funds available in the Swedish Premium Pension system (PPM-funds). The aim has been to investigate whether administration fees, manager tenure or past performance are of importance for pension savers when they pick their PPM-funds. The results indicate that high fees are a disadvantage to pension savers investing in bond funds but not to those investing in stock funds. Manager tenure has no relationship with performance. There is evidence of performance persistency in most of the investigated fund categories.

Hyvät pahat pörssiyhtiöt?

Pörssiyhtiöihin liitetään julkisessa keskustelussa usein väitteitä, että pörssiyhtiöt palvelevat osakkeenomistajien lyhytaikaisia etuja muiden sidosryhmien ja myös pitkän aikavälin tuottavuuden kustannuksella. Keskitymme tässä selonteossa tutkimaan onko pörssiyhtiöiden julkisuudessa osalleen saama kritiikki ansaittua. Erityisesti tarkastelemme pörssiyhtiöiden roolia työnantajina ja investoijina 2000- luvulla verrattuna noteeraamattomien yritysten rooliin. Selvitämme myös listattujen ja listaamattomien yritysten eroja sijoituskohteina sekä tutkimme, onko pörssissä ololla vaikutusta yrityksen rahoitusrakenteeseen. Olemme jättäneet vertailun ulkopuolelle nopeasti kasvaneet ja kannattavat tietotekniikka-alan yritykset, joille ei ole olemassa noteeraamattomia vertailukohteita. Lisäksi vertailustamme olemme jättäneet pois yritykset, jotka eivät ole olleet listattuina koko tarkasteluperiodimme aikana. Pois jättämämme kasvuyritykset todennäköisesti parantaisivat pörssiyhtiöiden suhteellista asemaa ainakin kasvu- ja tulosnäkökulmista. Osakkeenomistajien edun lyhytnäköisen valvonnan tulisi johtaa työntekijöiden hyväksikäyttöön ja pitkäaikaisinvestointien karttamiseen. Tuloksemme kuitenkin kertovat päinvastaista. Pörssiyhtiöiden työntekijäkohtaiset henkilökulut ovat selvästi samoilla aloilla toimivia noteeraamattomia yrityksiä korkeammat. Erot ovat huomattavat: pörssiyhtiöiden vuosittaiset henkilökulut ovat noin 3000–4000 euroa suuremmat per henkilö. Lisäksi pörssiyhtiöt ovat kasvattaneet työntekijämääräänsä huomattavasti, toisin kuin noteeraamattomat vertailuyritykset. Otantamme pörssiyhtiöiden kokonaistyöllisyys on 2000-luvulla kasvanut keskimäärin noin 3 % vuodessa. Pörssiyhtiöt työllistivät vuonna 2007 lähes 87.000 työntekijää enemmän kuin vuonna 2001, kun taas yksityisen vertailuryhmän osalta työpaikat olivat samaan aikaan vähentyneet noin 2 500:lla. Pörssiyhtiöiden investoinnit ovat useina vuosina olleet listaamattomia yrityksiä suuremmat, joskin erot kahden ryhmän välillä eivät tyypillisesti ole tilastollisesti merkittäviä. Sidosryhmien hyväksikäytölle tai lyhytjänteisyydelle ei siis tältä osin löydy minkäänlaisia todisteita. Investointituotoissa ei ole järjestelmällisiä eroja kahden ryhmän välillä, lukuunottamatta aivan viime vuosia, jolloin pörssiyhtiöiden oman pääoman tuotto on ollut selvästi korkeampi kuin noteeraamattomien yritysten. Pörssiyhtiöillä ja noteeraamattomilla vertailuyrityksillä on merkittäviä eroja osingonmaksussa. Pörssiyhtiöt maksavat selvästi korkeampia osinkoja kuin vertailuryhmään kuuluvat yritykset. Pörssiyhtiöt maksavat omistajilleen noin puolet nettotuloksistaan osinkoina, kun taas noteeraamattomat yritykset maksavat ainoastaan 20–30 %. Erot pörssiyhtiöiden hyväksi ovat vielä suurempia, kun mittarina käytetään osinkojen suhdetta liikevaihtoon. Tulostemme mukaan pörssiyhtiöt käyttävät velkarahoitusta vastaavia noteeraamattomia yrityksiä enemmän. Tämä voi johtua kahdesta syystä. Ensinnäkin, koska osakkeen julkinen kauppa mahdollistaa omistuspohjan laajenemisen ja alkuperäisyrittäjien sijoitusten paremman hajauttamisen, pörssiyrityksellä on suurempi halukkuus riskinottoon lisäämällä velkarahoitusta. Toisaalta pörssilistaus voi toimia signaalina yrityksen laadusta siten, että rahoittajat tarjoavat velkarahoitusta auliimmin ja paremmilla ehdoilla. Pörssiyhtiöiden suurempi velkaisuus ei ole ollenkaan negatiivinen asia, koska velkarahoitus on verohyötyineen tyypillisesti huomattavasti osakerahoitusta edullisempaa. Tämä taas mahdollistaa lisäinvestointeja, joita ei rahoituksen puutteessa muuten tehtäisi. Yleisemmin rahoitusrakenteiden eroja tarkastellessamme huomaamme viitteitä siitä, että koska pörssiyhtiöillä on mahdollisuus saada osakepääomaa helpommin kuin listaamattomien yhtiöiden, ne pystyvät reagoimaan sekä tuote-, että rahoitusmarkkinoiden 3 mahdollisuuksiin. Listaamattomien yritysten rahoitusrakenne ja myös investoinnit sen sijaan näyttäisivät olevan pitkälle sidonnaisia tulorahoituksen tarjoamiin kassavirtoihin. Pörssiyhtiöt investoivat vähintään yhtä paljon kuin vastaavat noteeraamattomat yritykset ja investointien tuottavuus on vähintään yhtä hyvä. Pörssiyhtiöt ovat parempia palkanmaksajia ja työllistäjiä kuin vastaavat yksityiset yritykset. Pörssiyhtiöt pystyvät maksaamaan selkeästi parempia osinkoja investointien ja muun toiminnan siitä kärsimättä, koska velkarahoituksen parempi saatavuus tai pörssiyhtiöiden suurempi halukkuus käyttää velkarahoitusta tuovat rahoitusrakenteeseen tarvittavaa joustavuutta. Tulostemme valossa arvostelu osakkeenomistajien lyhytaikaisten etujen suosimisesta muiden sidosryhmien tai pitkän aikavälin tuottavuuden kustannuksella ei ole perusteltavissa.

Pricing Index Options with Stochastic Volatility

The objective of this paper is to investigate the pricing accuracy under stochastic volatility where the volatility follows a square root process. The theoretical prices are compared with market price data (the German DAX index options market) by using two different techniques of parameter estimation, the method of moments and implicit estimation by inversion. Standard Black & Scholes pricing is used as a benchmark. The results indicate that the stochastic volatility model with parameters estimated by inversion using the available prices on the preceding day, is the most accurate pricing method of the three in this study and can be considered satisfactory. However, as the same model with parameters estimated using a rolling window (the method of moments) proved to be inferior to the benchmark, the importance of stable and correct estimation of the parameters is evident.

The impact of stock option incentives on investment and firm value

This paper analyzes the relations among firm-level stock option portfolio incentives, investment, and firm value based on a sample of Finnish firms during the time period 1987 – 2000. Utilizing exact and complete information regarding stock option portfolio characteristics, we find some evidence that firm investment is increasing in the incentives to increase stock price (delta) and risk (vega). Furthermore, we find strong evidence of a positive relation between both incentive effects and firm value (Tobin’s Q). In contrast, when we allow for stock option incentives, investment, and firm value to be simultaneously determined, we find no evidence that investment is increasing in incentives. However, even after controlling for endogeneity, we find that both incentive effects arising from stock option compensation display a positive and significant effect on firm value. Finally, in contradiction to earlier findings, we observe that neither Tobin’s Q nor investment drives incentives.

Panel Cointegration of Chinese A and B Shares

This paper uses panel unit root and cointegration methods to test the stationarity of the premium on domestic investors’ A shares over foreign investors’ B shares and cointegration between the A and B share prices on the Chinese stock exchanges. We find that the A share price premium is nonstationary until 2001, when the A and B share markets were partially merged, and that the A and B share prices are cointegrated in the panel.Cointegration is more likely to be found for firms in the service sector and for firms that issued B shares recently.

Bootstrapping the Error Correction Model Cointegration Test

This paper is concerned with using the bootstrap to obtain improved critical values for the error correction model (ECM) cointegration test in dynamic models. In the paper we investigate the effects of dynamic specification on the size and power of the ECM cointegration test with bootstrap critical values. The results from a Monte Carlo study show that the size of the bootstrap ECM cointegration test is close to the nominal significance level. We find that overspecification of the lag length results in a loss of power. Underspecification of the lag length results in size distortion. The performance of the bootstrap ECM cointegration test deteriorates if the correct lag length is not used in the ECM. The bootstrap ECM cointegration test is therefore not robust to model misspecification.

The Power of Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

Bootstrap likelihood ratio tests of cointegration rank are commonly used because they tend to have rejection probabilities that are closer to the nominal level than the rejection probabilities of the correspond- ing asymptotic tests. The e¤ect of bootstrapping the test on its power is largely unknown. We show that a new computationally inexpensive procedure can be applied to the estimation of the power function of the bootstrap test of cointegration rank. The bootstrap test is found to have a power function close to that of the level-adjusted asymp- totic test. The bootstrap test estimates the level-adjusted power of the asymptotic test highly accurately. The bootstrap test may have low power to reject the null hypothesis of cointegration rank zero, or underestimate the cointegration rank. An empirical application to Euribor interest rates is provided as an illustration of the findings.

Organisation Carescapes: Researching Organisations, Work and Care

This working paper develops an approach to the analysis of care as it is evident in the policies and practices of employing organisations. We identify how notions of care are incorporated in myriad and multi-faceted ways that may support, survey and control workers, as well as having implications for employers, managers, employees and workers. Aspects of care can be found in a range of statutory duties, policies and related activities, including: health and safety, equality and diversity, parental leave, religious observance, bullying and harassment, personal development, voluntary redundancy, early retirement, employer pension schemes, grievance procedures, and dismissal. The conceptual framework of organisation carescapes is offered as an aid to the analysis of employee policies and services. These policies and services are transformed by shifts in supranational and national policies such as European Union (EU) economic strategies and national legislation on disability rights legislation, age discrimination and flexible working, and changes in labour market competitiveness. In conclusion, we consider how the framework of organisation carescapes is informing research design in our and our colleagues’ ongoing programme of research.

Cross-Border Competence Management in Emerging Markets: Voices from China and Russia

This book is on cross-border competence management in Russia and China. Corporations are facing a number of problems and challenges in their international operations, to which there typically are no simple solutions. For instance, they need to understand and respond to cultural and institutional diversity and ascertain that their foreign units are integrated with the rest of the corporation. Throughout this report we will discuss a range of challenges confronting firms as they seek to develop their capabilities to operate internationally. Some of the challenges are clearly case specific, and although this book aims to offer research-based advice to practicing managers there is a potential danger in applying lessons from other companies to the own firm. Our hope is that our analyses of the challenges facing Finnish corporations in China and Russia reported together with extensive quotes from our interviews and insights from other recent studies will help readers draw their own conclusions as to how to deal with issues related to competence management across borders. With this book we also aspire to contribute to the academic literature by providing new insights into cross-border competence management in general and the operations of Finnish corporations in Russia and China in particular.

Customer Energy in Relationships

All companies have a portfolio of customer relationships. From a managerial standpoint the value of these customer relationships is a key issue. The aim of the paper is to introduce a conceptual framework for customers’ energy towards a service provider. Customer energy is defined as the cognitive, affective and behavioural effort a customer puts into the purchase of an offering. It is based on two dimensions: life theme involvement and relationship commitment. Data from a survey study of 425 customers of an online gambling site was combined with data about their individual purchases and activity. Analysis showed that involvement and commitment influence both customer behaviour and attitudes. Customer involvement was found to be strongly related to overall spending within a consumption area, whereas relationship commitment is a better predictor of the amount of money spent at a particular company. Dividing the customers into four different involvement / commitment segments revealed differences in churn rates, word-of-mouth, brand attitude, switching propensity and the use of the service for socializing. The framework provides a tool for customer management by revealing differences in fundamental drivers of customer behaviour resulting in completely new customer portfolios. Knowledge of customer energy allows companies to manage their communication and offering development better and provides insight into the risk of losing a customer.

Exploring Customer Value Formation: A Customer Dominant Logic Perspective

This paper extends current discussions about value creation and proposes a customer dominant value perspective. A customer-dominant marketing logic positions the customer in the center, rather than the service provider/producer or the interaction or the system. The focus is shifted from the company´s service processes involving the customer, to the customer´s multi-contextual value formation, involving the company. It is argued that value is not always an active process of creation; instead value is embedded and formed in the highly dynamic and multi-contextual reality and life of the customer. This leads to a need to look beyond the current line of visibility where visible customer-company interactions are focused to the invisible and mental life of the customer. From this follows a need to extend the temporal scope, from exchange and use even further to accumulated experiences in the customer´s life. The aim of this paper is to explore value formation from a customer dominant logic perspective. This is done in three steps: first, value formation is contrasted to earlier views on the company’s role in value creation by using a broad ontologically driven framework discussing what, how, when, where and who. Next, implications of the proposed characteristics of value formation compared to earlier approaches are put forward. Finally, some tentative suggestions of how this perspective would affect marketing in service companies are presented. As value formation in a CDL perspective has a different focus and scope than earlier views on value it leads to posing questions about the customer that reveals earlier hidden aspects of the role of a service for the customer. This insight might be used in service development and innovation.