Debiasing the outcome effect: The role of instructions in an audit litigation setting

The outcome effect occurs where an evaluator, who has knowledge of the outcome of a judge's decision , assesses the quality of the judgment of that decision maker. If the evaluator has knowledge of a negative outcome, then that knowledge negatively influences his or her assessment of the ex ante judgment. For instance, jurors in a lawsuit brought against an auditor for alleged negligence are informed of an undetected fraud, even though an unqualified opinion was issued. This paper reports the results of an experiment in an applied audit judgment setting that examined methods of mitigating the outcome effect by means of instructions. The results showed that simply instructing or warning the evaluator about the potential biasing effects of outcome information was only weakly effective. However, instructions that stressed either (1) the cognitive non-normativeness of the outcome effect or (2) the seriousness and gravity of the evaluation ameliorated the effect significantly. From a theoretical perspective, the results suggest that there may both motivational and cognitive components to the outcome effect. In all, the findings suggest awareness of the outcome effect and use of relatively nonintrusive instructions to evaluators may effectively counteract the potential for the outcome bias.

Expert system application on preliminary design of water retaining structures

Design of liquid retaining structures involves many decisions to be made by the designer based on rules of thumb, heuristics, judgment, code of practice and previous experience. Various design parameters to be chosen include configuration, material, loading, etc. A novice engineer may face many difficulties in the design process. Recent developments in artificial intelligence and emerging field of knowledge-based system (KBS) have made widespread applications in different fields. However, no attempt has been made to apply this intelligent system to the design of liquid retaining structures. The objective of this study is, thus, to develop a KBS that has the ability to assist engineers in the preliminary design of liquid retaining structures. Moreover, it can provide expert advice to the user in selection of design criteria, design parameters and optimum configuration based on minimum cost. The development of a prototype KBS for the design of liquid retaining structures (LIQUID), using blackboard architecture with hybrid knowledge representation techniques including production rule system and object-oriented approach, is presented in this paper. An expert system shell, Visual Rule Studio, is employed to facilitate the development of this prototype system. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Endometriosis

Endometriosis remains an enigma despite having been extensively studied. Its aetiology remains unclear, although there is a positive correlation with retrograde menstruation, probably with a background genetic predisposition. Traditionally, the symptoms of endometriosis are said to be pelvic pain and infertility, but, while a causal link between these symptoms and the disease is sometimes clear, the link is not always established. Treatment aimed at eliminating endometriotic deposits is effective in controlling symptoms in a proportion of patients, but recurrence is common.

Lack of association between CYP1A1 polymorphism and Parkinson's disease in a Chinese population

Apart from very few families who have a direct cause from genetic mutation, causes of most Parkinson's disease (PD) remain unclear. Many allelic association studies on polymorphism of different candidate genes have been studied. Although these association studies do not imply a causal relationship, it does warrant further studies to elucidate the pathophysiologic significance. CYP1A1 polymorphisms have been reported to be associated with PD in a Japanese population sample. Since CYP1A1 transforms aromatic hydrocarbons into products that may be neurotoxic and perhaps lead to PD, we therefore undertook a study to look at the possible association of CYP1A1 polymorphism and PD in a Chinese population. Contrary to the Japanese result, we did not find any statistically significant difference between the PD group and the control group in our study with a bigger sample size.

Efficient time-independent wave packet scattering calculations within a Lanczos subspace: H+O-2 (J=0) state-to-state reaction probabilities

An efficient Lanczos subspace method has been devised for calculating state-to-state reaction probabilities. The method recasts the time-independent wave packet Lippmann-Schwinger equation [Kouri , Chem. Phys. Lett. 203, 166 (1993)] inside a tridiagonal (Lanczos) representation in which action of the causal Green's operator is affected easily with a QR algorithm. The method is designed to yield all state-to-state reaction probabilities from a given reactant-channel wave packet using a single Lanczos subspace; the spectral properties of the tridiagonal Hamiltonian allow calculations to be undertaken at arbitrary energies within the spectral range of the initial wave packet. The method is applied to a H+O-2 system (J=0), and the results indicate the approach is accurate and stable. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Peanut resistance to Sclerotinia minor and S-sclerotiorum

The fungi Sclerotinia minor and S. sclerotiorum are the causal agents of two similar diseases of peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.). Both diseases cause significant losses in the Australian peanut industry. Development of cultivars with resistance to Sclerotinia will be an important component of integrated control. The aims of this project are to generate information that will assist in breeding for Sclerotinia resistance in peanut: to identify Sclerotinia-resistant peanut germplasm, to understand the inheritance and estimate heritability of resistance, and to test the effectiveness of identified sources of resistance against both S. minor and S. sclerotiorum. This study has clearly established that material that shows resistance to S. minor in the USA is resistant to S. minor and likely to be resistant to S. sclerotiorum in Australia. The high level of resistance to both S. minor and S. sclerotiorum in germplasm from Texas, particularly TxAG-4, was confirmed. VA 93B showed good resistance in the field, which is primarily due to the open bush type rather than physiological resistance. Physiological resistance to S. minor was also identified in a cultivar and a landrace from Indonesia and a rust-resistant line from Queensland. All germplasm found to have high physiological resistance to S. minor belonged to the Spanish type. Inheritance of physiological resistance to S. minor was studied using a Generation Means Analysis (GMA) of the cross TxAG-4/VA 93B and its reciprocal. The broad-sense heritability of physiological resistance on a single plant basis was estimated at 47%, much higher than earlier estimates obtained in field studies. The average gene action of Sclerotinia resistance genes from TxAG-4 was found to be additive. No dominance effects were detected in the GMA. A small but significant reciprocal effect between TxAG-4 and VA 93B indicated that VA 93B passed on some physiological resistance maternally. An experiment was conducted to confirm the value of resistance against both S. minor and S. sclerotiorum. TxAG-4 was found to have physiological resistance to both S. minor and S. sclerotiorum. This resistance was expressed against both Sclerotinia species by progeny that were selected for resistance to S. minor. On the basis of the information obtained, the comparative advantages of 3 strategies for Sclerotinia-resistant cultivar development are discussed: (1) introduction of germplasm; (2) recurrent backcrossing with screening and crossing in the BCnF1 generation; and (3) pedigree selection. At present, introduction and backcrossing are recommended as the preferred strategies.

Perception or synthesized voice quality in connected speech by Cantonese speakers

Perceptual voice analysis is a subjective process. However, despite reports of varying degrees of intrajudge and interjudge reliability, it is widely used in clinical voice evaluation. One of the ways to improve the reliability of this procedure is to provide judges with signals as external standards so that comparison can be made in relation to these anchor signals. The present study used a Klatt speech synthesizer to create a set of speech signals with varying degree of three different voice qualities based on a Cantonese sentence. The primary objective of the study was to determine whether different abnormal voice qualities could be synthesized using the built-in synthesis parameters using a perceptual study. The second objective was to determine the relationship between acoustic characteristics of the synthesized signals and perceptual judgment. Twenty Cantonese-speaking speech pathologists with at least three years of clinical experience in perceptual voice evaluation were asked to undertake two tasks. The first was to decide whether the voice quality of the synthesized signals was normal or not. The second was to decide whether the abnormal signals should be described as rough, breathy, or vocal fry. The results showed that signals generated with a small degree of aspiration noise were perceived as breathiness while signals with a small degree of flutter or double pulsing were perceived as roughness. When the flutter or double pulsing increased further, tremor and vocal fry, rather than roughness, were perceived. Furthermore, the amount of aspiration noise, flutter, or double pulsing required for male voice stimuli was different from that required for the female voice stimuli with a similar level of perceptual breathiness and roughness. These findings showed that changes in perceived vocal quality could be achieved by systematic modifications of synthesis parameters. This opens up the possibility of using synthesized voice signals as external standards or anchors to improve the reliability of clinical perceptual voice evaluation. (C) 2002 Acoustical Society of America.

Effects of intravenous injection of Clostridium perfringens type D epsilon toxin in calves

In cattle, a neurological lesion similar to that produced in sheep and goats by Clostridium perfringens type D enterotoxaemia has been reported. However, no causal relationship has been established between this disease and the lesion in cattle. The effects of single and multiple intravenous injections of epsilon toxin in three calves aged 6 months were studied. A further calf was inoculated intravenously with saline solution and used as a control. Epsilon toxin invariably produced neurological signs within 2-60 min of the end of the injection process. Clinical signs consisted of loss of consciousness, recumbency, convulsions, paddling, opisthotonus, hyperaesthesia and dyspnoea. Gross changes consisted of severe acute pulmonary oedema, which was particularly marked in the interlobular septa. The histological lesions consisted of intra-alveolar and interstitial oedema of the lung and variable degrees of perivascular proteinaceous oedema in the internal capsule, thalamus and cerebellar white matter. No clinical or post-mortem changes were observed in the control calf. These results show that calves are susceptible to the intravenous injection of epsilon toxin, and that they can show at least some of the histological lesions produced in sheep and goats by this toxin. (C) 2002 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.

Rumors and stable-cause attribution in prediction and behavior

Two stock-market simulation experiments investigated the notion that rumors that invoke stable-cause attributions spawn illusory associations and less regressive predictions and behavior. In Study 1, illusory perceptions of association and stable causation (rumors caused price changes on the day after they appeared) existed despite rigorous conditions of nonassociation (price changes were unrelated to rumors). Predictions (recent price trends will continue) and trading behavior (departures from a strong buy-low-sell-high strategy) were both anti-regressive. In Study 2, stability of attribution was manipulated via a computerized tutorial. Participants taught to view price-changes as caused by stable forces predicted less regressively and departed more from buy-low-sell-high trading patterns than those taught to perceive changes as caused by unstable forces. Results inform a social cognitive and decision theoretic understanding of rumor by integrating it with causal attribution, covariation detection, and prediction theory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Environmental factors associated with adults' participation in physical activity : A review

Background: Promoting physical activity is a public health priority, and changes in the environmental Contexts of adults' activity choices are believed to be crucial. However, of the factors associated with physical activity, environmental influences are among the least understood. Method: Using journal scans and computerized literature database searches, we identified 19 quantitative studies that assessed the relationships With physical activity behavior of perceived and objectively determined physical environment attributes. Findings were categorized into those examining five categories: accessibility of facilities, opportunities for activity, weather, safety, and aesthetic attributes. Results: Accessibility, opportunities, and aesthetic attributes had significant associations with physical activity, Weather and safety showed less-strong relationships. Where Studies pooled different categories to create composite variables, the associations were less likely to be statistically significant. Conclusions: Physical environment factors have consistent associations with physical activity behavior. Further development of ecologic and environmental models, together with behavior-specific and context-specific measurement strategies, should help in further understanding of these associations. Prospective Studies are required to identify possible causal relationships.

Enhanced quantitative resistance to Leptosphaeria maculans conferred by expression of a novel antimicrobial peptide in canola (Brassica napus L.)

The novel antimicrobial peptide MiAMP1, originally isolated from the seeds of Macadamia integrifolia, was constitutively expressed in transgenic tobacco and canola plants to test its effect on disease resistance. Analysis of plants transformed with 35S-MiAMP1 construct by northern and western blot analyses demonstrated the presence of MiAMP1 mRNA and the mature peptide in the transgenic plants. The MiAMP1 purified from the leaves of transgenic plants was biologically active with the same in vitro antifungal activity as native MiAMP1 purified from the seeds of macadamia. The effect of MiAMP1 expression on the economically important canola pathogen Leptosphaeria maculans (causal agent of blackleg disease) was evaluated in comparison with an untransformed control line and an azygous segregant derived from one of the transgenic lines. Lesion development on the cotyledons of the inoculated canola seedlings was significantly reduced in the T-2 progeny of seven independently transformed transgenic lines. These results suggested that, transgenic canola expressing MiAMP1 may be useful for the management of blackleg disease.

Spatial and temporal patterns in Australian wheat yield and their relationship with ENSO

Spatial and temporal variability in wheat production in Australia is dominated by rainfall occurrence. The length of historical production records is inadequate, however, to analyse spatial and temporal patterns conclusively. In this study we used modelling and simulation to identify key spatial patterns in Australian wheat yield, identify groups of years in the historical record in which spatial patterns were similar, and examine association of those wheat yield year groups with indicators of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A simple stress index model was trained on 19 years of Australian Bureau of Statistics shire yield data (1975-93). The model was then used to simulate shire yield from 1901 to 1999 for all wheat-producing shires. Principal components analysis was used to determine the dominating spatial relationships in wheat yield among shires. Six major components of spatial variability were found. Five of these represented near spatially independent zones across the Australian wheatbelt that demonstrated coherent temporal (annual) variability in wheat yield. A second orthogonal component was required to explain the temporal variation in New South Wales. The principal component scores were used to identify high- and low-yielding years in each zone. Year type groupings identified in this way were tested for association with indicators of ENSO. Significant associations were found for all zones in the Australian wheatbelt. Associations were as strong or stronger when ENSO indicators preceding the wheat season (April-May phases of the Southern Oscillation Index) were used rather than indicators based on classification during the wheat season. Although this association suggests an obvious role for seasonal climate forecasting in national wheat crop forecasting, the discriminatory power of the ENSO indicators, although significant, was not strong. By examining the historical years forming the wheat yield analog sets within each zone, it may be possible to identify novel climate system or ocean-atmosphere features that may be causal and, hence, most useful in improving seasonal forecasting schemes.

Genetic structure of a population of Ganoderma boninense on oil palm

Ganoderma boninense (the causal agent of basal stem rot of oil palm in Papua New Guinea) has a tetrapolar mating system with multiple alleles. Investigations into the population structure of G. boninense, using interfertility between isolates as a marker, revealed that the population on oil palm was comprised predominantly of genetically distinct individuals, although a number of isolates were found to share single mating alleles. No direct hereditary relationship was found between isolates on neighbouring or spatially separated diseased palms, indicating that outcrossing had probably occurred over several generations in the founder population prior to colonization of oil palm. In this study, a total of 81 A and 83 B mating type alleles (factors) were detected with 18 allelic repeats at the A locus and 17 at the B locus. Alleles appeared to be randomly dispersed throughout the population in each study block, although there was a significantly (P

Efficacy, timing and method of application of fungicides for management of sorghum ergot caused by Claviceps africana

Trials conducted in Queensland, Australia between 1997 and 2002 demonstrated that fungicides belonging to the triazole group were the most effective in minimising the severity of infection of sorghum by Claviceps africana, the causal agent of sorghum ergot. Triadimenol ( as Bayfidan 250EC) at 0.125 kg a. i./ha was the most effective fungicide. A combination of the systemic activated resistance compound acibenzolar-S-methyl ( as Bion 50WG) at 0.05 kg a. i./ha and mancozeb ( as Penncozeb 750DF) at 1.5 kg a. i./ha has the potential to provide protection against the pathogen, should triazole-resistant isolates be detected. Timing and method of fungicide application are important. Our results suggest that the triazole fungicides have no systemic activity in sorghum panicles, necessitating the need for multiple applications from first anthesis to the end of flowering, whereas acibenzolar-S-methyl is most effective when applied 4 days before flowering. The flat fan nozzles tested in the trials provided higher levels of protection against C. africana and greater droplet deposition on panicles than the tested hollow cone nozzles. Application of triadimenol by a fixed wing aircraft was as efficacious as application through a tractor-mounted boom spray.

Ventricular dysfunction in early diabetic heart disease: detection, mechanisms and significance

The detection of preclinical heart disease is a new direction in diabetes care. This comment describes the study by Vinereanu and co-workers in this issue of Clinical Science in which tissue Doppler echocardiography has been employed to demonstrate subtle systolic and diastolic dysfunction in Type 11 diabetic patients who had normal global systolic function and were free of coronary artery disease. The aetiology of early ventricular dysfunction in diabetes relates to complex intramyocardial and extramyocardial mechanisms. The initiating event may be due to insulin resistance, and involves abnormal myocardial substrate utilization and uncoupling of mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation. Dysglycaemia plays an important role via the effects of oxidative stress, protein kinase C activation and advanced glycosylation end-products on inflammatory signalling, collagen metabolism and fibrosis. Extramyocardial mechanisms involve peripheral endothelial dysfunction, arterial stiffening and autonomic neuropathy. The clinical significance of the ventricular abnormalities described is unknown. Confirmation of their prognostic importance for cardiac disease in diabetes would justify routine screening for presymptomatic ventricular dysfunction, as well as clinical trials of novel agents for correcting causal mechanisms. These considerations could also have implications for patients with obesity and the metabolic syndrome.