Ice Core Record of Rising Lead Pollution in the North Pacific Atmosphere

A high-resolution, 8000 year-long ice core record from the Mt. Logan summit plateau (5300 m asl) reveals the initiation of trans-Pacific lead (Pb) pollution by ca. 1730, and a > 10-fold increase in Pb concentration (1981-1998 mean = 68.9 ng/l) above natural background (5.6 ng/l) attributed to rising anthropogenic Pb emissions from Asia. The largest rise in North Pacific Pb pollution from 1970-1998 (end of record) is contemporaneous with a decrease in Eurasian and North American Pb pollution as documented in ice core records from Greenland, Devon Island, and the European Alps. The distinct Pb pollution history in the North Pacific is interpreted to result from the later industrialization and less stringent abatement measures in Asia compared to North America and Eurasia. The Mt. Logan record shows evidence for both a rising Pb emissions signal from Asia and a trans-Pacific transport efficiency signal related to the strength of the Aleutian Low.

Mortality in patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa, Europe, or North America: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND High early mortality in patients with HIV-1 starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to Europe and North America, is well documented. Longer-term comparisons between settings have been limited by poor ascertainment of mortality in high burden African settings. This study aimed to compare mortality up to four years on ART between South Africa, Europe, and North America. METHODS AND FINDINGS Data from four South African cohorts in which patients lost to follow-up (LTF) could be linked to the national population register to determine vital status were combined with data from Europe and North America. Cumulative mortality, crude and adjusted (for characteristics at ART initiation) mortality rate ratios (relative to South Africa), and predicted mortality rates were described by region at 0-3, 3-6, 6-12, 12-24, and 24-48 months on ART for the period 2001-2010. Of the adults included (30,467 [South Africa], 29,727 [Europe], and 7,160 [North America]), 20,306 (67%), 9,961 (34%), and 824 (12%) were women. Patients began treatment with markedly more advanced disease in South Africa (median CD4 count 102, 213, and 172 cells/µl in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively). High early mortality after starting ART in South Africa occurred mainly in patients starting ART with CD4 count <50 cells/µl. Cumulative mortality at 4 years was 16.6%, 4.7%, and 15.3% in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively. Mortality was initially much lower in Europe and North America than South Africa, but the differences were reduced or reversed (North America) at longer durations on ART (adjusted rate ratios 0.46, 95% CI 0.37-0.58, and 1.62, 95% CI 1.27-2.05 between 24 and 48 months on ART comparing Europe and North America to South Africa). While bias due to under-ascertainment of mortality was minimised through death registry linkage, residual bias could still be present due to differing approaches to and frequency of linkage. CONCLUSIONS After accounting for under-ascertainment of mortality, with increasing duration on ART, the mortality rate on HIV treatment in South Africa declines to levels comparable to or below those described in participating North American cohorts, while substantially narrowing the differential with the European cohorts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Evidence for cooler European summers during periods of changing meltwater flux to the North Atlantic

We analyzed fossil chironomids (nonbiting midges) and pollen in two lake-sediment records to reconstruct and quantify Holocene summer-temperature fluctuations in the European Alps. Chironomid and pollen records indicate five centennial-scale cooling episodes during the early- and mid-Holocene. The strongest temperature declines of ≈1°C are inferred at ≈10,700–10,500 and 8,200–7,600 calibrated 14C years B.P., whereas other temperature fluctuations are of smaller amplitude. Two forcing mechanisms have been presented recently to explain centennial-scale climate variability in Europe during the early- and mid-Holocene, both involving changes in Atlantic thermohaline circulation. In the first mechanism, changes in meltwater flux from the North American continent to the North Atlantic are responsible for changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, thereby affecting circum-Atlantic climate. In the second mechanism, solar variability is the cause of Holocene climatic fluctuations, possibly triggering changes in Atlantic thermohaline overturning. Within their dating uncertainty, the two major cooling periods in the European Alps are coeval with substantial changes in the routing of North American freshwater runoff to the North Atlantic, whereas quantitatively, our climatic reconstructions show a poor agreement with available records of past solar activity. Thus, our results suggest that, during the early- and mid-Holocene, freshwater-induced Atlantic circulation changes had stronger influence on Alpine summer temperatures than solar variability and that Holocene thermohaline circulation reductions have led to summer-temperature declines of up to 1°C in central Europe.

An intercontinental comparison of chironomid palaeotemperature inference models: Europe vs North America

Chironomid-temperature inference models based on North American, European and combined surface sediment training sets were compared to assess the overall reliability of their predictions. Between 67 and 76 of the major chironomid taxa in each data set showed a unimodal response to July temperature, whereas between 5 and 22 of the common taxa showed a sigmoidal response. July temperature optima were highly correlated among the training sets, but the correlations for other taxon parameters such as tolerances and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) and partial least squares (PLS) regression coefficients were much weaker. PLS, weighted averaging, WA-PLS, and the Modern Analogue Technique, all provided useful and reliable temperature inferences. Although jack-knifed error statistics suggested that two-component WA-PLS models had the highest predictive power, intercontinental tests suggested that other inference models performed better. The various models were able to provide good July temperature inferences, even where neither good nor close modern analogues for the fossil chironomid assemblages existed. When the models were applied to fossil Lateglacial assemblages from North America and Europe, the inferred rates and magnitude of July temperature changes varied among models. All models, however, revealed similar patterns of Lateglacial temperature change. Depending on the model used, the inferred Younger Dryas July temperature decrease ranged between 2.5 and 6°C.

Stable isotope ratios and chemistry on corals from the Caribbean Sea

Instrumental climate data are limited in length and only available with low spatial coverage before the middle of the 20th century. This is too short to reliably determine and interpret decadal and longer scale climate variability and to understand the underlying mechanisms with sufficient accuracy. A proper knowledge of past variability of the climate system is needed to assess the anthropogenic impact on climate and ecosystems, and also important with regard to long-range climate forecasting. Highly-resolved records of past climate variations that extend beyond pre-industrial times can significantly help to understand long-term climate changes and trends. Indirect information on past environmental and climatic conditions can be deduced from climate-sensitive proxies. Large colonies of massive growing tropical reef corals have been proven to sensitively monitor changes in ambient seawater. Rapid skeletal growth, typically ranging between several millimeters to centimeters per year, allows the development of proxy records at sub-seasonal resolution. Stable oxygen isotopic composition and trace elemental ratios incorporated in the aragonitic coral skeleton can reveal a detailed history of past environmental conditions, e.g., sea surface temperature (SST). In general, coral-based reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region have lagged behind the extensive work published using coral records from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Difficulties in the analysis of previously utilized coral archives from the Atlantic, typically corals of the genera Montastrea and Siderastrea, have so far exacerbated the production of long-term high-resolution proxy records. The objective of this study is the evaluation of massive fast-growing corals of the species Diploria strigosa as a new marine archive for climate reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region. For this purpose, coral records from two study sites in the eastern Caribbean Sea (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles; and Archipelago Los Roques, Venezuela) were examined. At Guadeloupe, a century-long monthly resolved multi-proxy coral record was generated. Results present the first d18O (Sr/Ca)-SST calibration equations for the Atlantic braincoral Diploria strigosa, that are robust and consistent with previously published values using other coral species from different regions. Both proxies reflect local variability of SST on a sub-seasonal scale, which is a precondition for studying seasonally phase-locked climate variations, as well as track variability on a larger spatial scale (i.e., in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic). Coral Sr/Ca reliably records local annual to interannual temperature variations and is higher correlated to in-situ air temperature than to grid-SST. The warming calculated from coral Sr/Ca is concurrent with the strong surface temperature increase at the study site during the past decades. Proxy data show a close relationship to major climate signals from the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic (the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) affecting the seasonal cycle of SST in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). Coral oxygen isotopes are also influenced by seawater d18O (d18Osw) which is linked to the hydrological cycle, and capture large-scale climate variability in the NTA region better than Sr/Ca. Results from a quantitative comparison between extreme events in the two most prominent modes of external forcing, namely the ENSO and NAO, and respective events recorded in seasonal coral d18O imply that SST variability at the study site is highly linked to Pacific and North Atlantic variability, by this means supporting the assumptions of observational- and model-based studies which suggest a strong impact of ENSO and NAO forcings onto the NTA region through a modulation of trade wind strength in winter. Results from different spectral analysis tools suggest that interannual climate variability recorded by the coral proxies is II largely dictated by Pacific ENSO forcing, whereas at decadal and longer timescales the influence of the NAO is dominan. tThe Archipelago Los Roques is situated in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, north of the Venezuelan coast. Year-to-year variations in monthly resolved coral d18O of a nearcentury- long Diploria strigosa record are significantly correlated with SST and show pronounced multidecadal variations. About half of the variance in coral d18O can be explained by variations in seawater d18O, which can be estimated by calculating the d18Oresidual via subtracting the SST component from measured coral d18O. The d18Oresidual and a regional precipitation index are highly correlated at low frequencies, suggesting that d18Osw variations are primarily atmospheric-driven. Warmer SSTs at Los Roques broadly coincide with higher precipitation in the southeastern Caribbean at multidecadal time scales, effectively strengthening the climate signal in the coral d18O record. The Los Roques coral d18O record displays a strong and statistically significant relationship to different indices of hurricane activity during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in boreal summer and is a particularly good indicator of decadal-multidecadal swings in the latter indices. In general, the detection of long-term changes and trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is hampered due to the limited length of the reliable instrumental record and the known inhomogeneity in the observational databases which result from changes in observing practice and technology over the years. The results suggest that coral-derived proxy data from Los Roques can be used to infer changes in past hurricane activity on timescales that extend well beyond the reliable record. In addition, the coral record exhibits a clear negative trend superimposed on the decadal to multidecadal cycles, indicating a significant warming and freshening of surface waters in the genesis region of tropical cyclones during the past decades. The presented coral d18O time series provides the first and, so far, longest continuous coral-based record of hurricane activity. It appears that the combination of both signals (SST and d18Osw) in coral d18O leads to an amplification of large-scale climate signals in the record, and makes coral d18O even a better proxy for hurricane activity than SST alone. Atlantic hurricane activity naturally exhibits strong multidecadal variations that are associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the major mode of lowfrequency variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the mechanisms underlying this multidecadal variability remain controversial, primarily because of the limited instrumental record. The Los Roques coral d18O displays strong multidecadal variability with a period of approximately 60 years that is closely related to the AMO, making the Archipelago Los Roques a very sensitive location for studying low-frequency climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean. In summary, the coral records presented in this thesis capture different key climate variables in the north tropical Atlantic region very well, indicating that fast-growing Diploria strigosa corals represent a promising marine archive for further proxy-based reconstructions of past climate variability on a range of time scales.

(Table 1) Element analyses of DSDP Hole 15-149

An iridium anomaly has been found in coincidence with the known microtektite level in cores from Deep Sea Drilling Project site 149 in the Caribbean Sea. The iridium was probably not in the microtektites but deposited simultaneously with them; this could occur if the iridium was deposited from a dust cloud resulting from a bolide impact, as suggested for the anomaly associated with the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. Other workers have deduced that the microtektites are part of the North American strewn tektite field, which is dated at about 34 million years before present, and that the microtektite horizon in deep-sea cores is synchronous with the extinction of five radiolarian species. Mass extinctions also occur in terrestrial mammals within 4 million years of this time. The iridium anomaly and the tektites and microtektites are supportive of a major bolide impact about 34 million years ago.

Isotopic composition of ground ice, ebullition gases and thermokarst lake water, North America

Thermokarst lakes are thought to have been an important source of methane (CH4) during the last deglaciation when atmospheric CH4 concentrations increased rapidly. Here we demonstrate that meltwater from permafrost ice serves as an H source to CH4 production in thermokarst lakes, allowing for region-specific reconstructions of dD-CH4 emissions from Siberian and North American lakes. dD CH4 reflects regionally varying dD values of precipitation incorporated into ground ice at the time of its formation. Late Pleistocene-aged permafrost ground ice was the dominant H source to CH4 production in primary thermokarst lakes, whereas Holocene-aged permafrost ground ice contributed H to CH4 production in later generation lakes. We found that Alaskan thermokarst lake dD-CH4 was higher (-334 ± 17 per mil) than Siberian lake dD-CH4 (-381 ± 18 per mil). Weighted mean dD CH4 values for Beringian lakes ranged from -385 per mil to -382 per mil over the deglacial period. Bottom-up estimates suggest that Beringian thermokarst lakes contributed 15 ± 4 Tg CH4 /yr to the atmosphere during the Younger Dryas and 25 ± 5 Tg CH4 /yr during the Preboreal period. These estimates are supported by independent, top-down isotope mass balance calculations based on ice core dD-CH4 and d13C-CH4 records. Both approaches suggest that thermokarst lakes and boreal wetlands together were important sources of deglacial CH4.

Pb isotopes in individual sand-sized (>150 µm) ice-rafted feldspars deposited at subpolar North Atlantic Ocean Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 611 during the late Pliocene (Marine Isotope Stages, MIS, G6 through 100)

The onset of abundant ice-rafted debris (IRD) deposition in the Nordic Seas and subpolar North Atlantic Ocean 2.72 millions of years ago (Ma) is thought to record the Pliocene onset of major northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG) due to a synchronous advance of North American Laurentide, Scandinavian and Greenland ice-sheets to their marine calving margins during marine isotope stage (MIS) G6. Numerous marine and terrestrial records from the Nordic Seas region indicate that extensive ice sheets on Greenland and Scandinavia increased IRD inputs to these seas from 2.72 Ma. The timing of ice-sheet expansion on North America as tracked by IRD deposition in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, however, is less clear because both Europe and North America are potential sources for icebergs in this region. Moreover, cosmogenic-dating of terrestrial tills on North America indicate that the Laurentide Ice Sheet did not extend to ~39°N until 2.4 ±0.14 Ma, at least 180 ka after the onset of major IRD deposition at 2.72 Ma. To address this problem,we present the first detailed analysis of the geochemical provenance of individual sand-sized IRD deposited in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean between MIS G6 and 100 (~2.72-2.52 Ma). IRD provenance is assessed using laser ablation lead (Pb) isotope analyses of single ice-rafted (>150 mm) feldspar grains. To track when an ice-rafting setting consistent with major NHG first occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean during the Pliocene intensification of NHG (iNHG), we investigate when the Pb-isotope composition (206Pb/204Pb, 207Pb/204Pb, 208Pb/204Pb) of feldspars deposited at DSDP Site 611 first resembles that determined for IRD deposited at this site during MIS 100, the oldest glacial for which there exists convincing evidence for widespread glaciation of North America. Whilst Quaternary-magnitude IRD fluxes exist at Site 611 during glacials from 2.72 Ma, we find that the provenance of this IRD is not constant. Instead, we find that the Pb isotope composition of IRD at our study site is not consistent with major NHG until MIS G2 (2.64 Ma). We hypothesise that IRD deposition in the North Atlantic Ocean prior to MIS G2 was dominated by iceberg calving from Greenland and Scandinavia. We further suggest that the grounding line of continental ice on Northeast America may not have extended onto the continental shelf and calved significant numbers of icebergs to the North Atlantic Ocean during glacials until 2.64 Ma.

Chemical composition of DSDP and ODP cherts

Rare earth element (REE), major, and trace element abundances and relative fractionations in forty nodular cherts sampled by the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) and Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that the REE composition of chert records the interplay between terrigenous sources and scavenging from the local seawater. Major and (non-REE) trace element ratios indicate that the aluminosilicate fraction within the chert is similar to NASC (North American Shale Composite), with average Pacific chert including ~7% NASC-like particles, Indian chert ~11% NASC, Atlantic chert ~17% NASC, and southern high latitude (SHL) chert 53% NASC. Using La as a proxy for sum REE, approximations of excessive La (the amount of La in excess of that supplied by the detrital aluminosilicate fraction) indicate that Pacific chert contains the greatest excessive La (85% of total La) and SHL chert the least (38% of total La). As shown by interelement associations, this excessive La is most likely an adsorbed component onto aluminosilicate and phosphatic phases. Accordingly, chert from the large Pacific Ocean, where deposition occurs relatively removed from significant terrigenous input, records a depositional REE signal dominated by adsorption of dissolved REEs from seawater. Pacific chert Ce/Ce* <<1 and normative La/Yb ~ 0.8-1, resulting from adsorption of local Ce-depleted seawater and preferential adsorption of LREEs from seawater (e.g., normative La/Yb ~0.4), which increases the normative La/Yb ratio recorded in chert. Chert from the Atlantic basin, a moderately sized ocean basin lined by passive margins and with more terrigenous input than the Pacific, records a mix of adsorptive and terrigenous REE signals, with moderately negative Ce anomalies and normative La/Yb ratios intermediate to those of the Pacific and those of terrigenous input. Chert from the SHL region is dominated by the large terrigenous input on the Antarctic passive margin, with inherited Ce/Ce* ~1 and inherited normative La/Yb values of ~1.2-1.4. Ce/Ce* does not vary with age, either throughout the entire data base or within a particular basin. Overall, Ce/Ce* does not correlate with P2O5 concentrations, even though phosphatic phases may be an important REE carrier.

High-precision 40Ar/39Ar geochronology and the advent of North America’s Late Cretaceous terrestrial fauna

A densely sampled, diverse new fauna from the uppermost Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah, indicates that the basic pattern of faunal composition for the Late Cretaceous of North America was already established by the Albian-Cenomanian boundary. Multiple, concordant 40Ar/39Ar determinations from a volcanic ash associated with the fauna have an average age of 98.39 ± 0.07 million years. The fauna of the Cedar Mountain Formation records the first global appearance of hadrosaurid dinosaurs, advanced lizard (e.g., Helodermatidae), and mammal (e.g., Marsupialia) groups, and the first North American appearance of other taxa such as tyrannosaurids, pachycephalosaurs, and snakes. Although the origin of many groups is unclear, combined biostratigraphic and phylogenetic evidence suggests an Old World, specifically Asian, origin for some of the taxa, an hypothesis that is consistent with existing evidence from tectonics and marine invertebrates. Large-bodied herbivores are mainly represented by low-level browsers, ornithopod dinosaurs, whose radiations have been hypothesized to be related to the initial diversification of angiosperm plants. Diversity at the largest body sizes (>106 g) is low, in contrast to both preceding and succeeding faunas; sauropods, which underwent demise in the Northern hemisphere coincident with the radiation of angiosperms, apparently went temporarily unreplaced by other megaherbivores. Morphologic and taxonomic diversity among small, omnivorous mammals, multituberculates, is also low. A later apparent increase in diversity occurred during the Campanian, coincident with the appearance of major fruit types among angiosperms, suggesting the possibility of adaptive response to new resources.

Forest losses predict bird extinctions in eastern North America.

Claims that there will be a massive loss of species as tropical forests are cleared are based on the relationship between habitat area and the number of species. Few studies calibrate extinction with habitat reduction. Critics raise doubts about this calibration, noting that there has been extensive clearing of the eastern North American forest, yet only 4 of its approximately 200 bird species have gone extinct. We analyze the distribution of bird species and the timing and extent of forest loss. The forest losses were not concurrent across the region. Based on the maximum extent of forest losses, our calculations predict fewer extinctions than the number observed. At most, there are 28 species of birds restricted to the region. Only these species would be at risk even if all the forests were cleared. Far from providing comfort to those who argue that the current rapid rate of tropical deforestation might cause fewer extinctions than often claimed, our results suggest that the losses may be worse. In contrast to eastern North America, small regions of tropical forest often hold hundreds of endemic bird species.