Using multiple windows to track concept drift

In this paper we present a multiple window incremental learning algorithm that distinguishes between virtual concept drift and real concept drift. The algorithm is unsupervised and uses a novel approach to tracking concept drift that involves the use of competing windows to interpret the data. Unlike previous methods which use a single window to determine the drift in the data, our algorithm uses three windows of different sizes to estimate the change in the data. The advantage of this approach is that it allows the system to progressively adapt and predict the change thus enabling it to deal more effectively with different types of drift. We give a detailed description of the algorithm and present the results obtained from its application to two real world problems: background image processing and sound recognition. We also compare its performance with FLORA, an existing concept drift tracking algorithm.

Blockade of 5-HT2A receptors suppresses hyperthermic but not cardiovascular responses to psychosocial stress in rats

The aim of this study was to determine whether 5-HT2A receptors mediate cardiovascular and thermogenic responses to acute psychological stresses. For this purpose, adult male Wistar hooded rats instrumented for telemetric recordings of either electrocardiogram (ECG) (n=12) or arterial pressure (n=12) were subjected, on different days, to four 15-min episodes of social defeat. Prior to stress, animals received s.c. injection of the selective 5-HT2A receptor antagonist SR-46349B (trans-4-((3Z)3-[(2-dimethylaminoethyl)oxyimino]-3-(2-fluorophenyl)propen-1-yl)-phenol, hemifumarate) (at doses of 0.3, 1.0 and 3.0 mg/kg) or vehicle. The drug had no effect on basal heart rate or heart rate variability indexes, arterial pressure, and core body temperature. Social defeat elicited significant and substantial tachycardic (347±7 to 500±7 bpm), pressor (77±4 to 97±4 mm Hg) and hyperthermic (37.0±0.3 to 38.5±0.1 °C) responses. Blockade of 5-HT2A receptors, at all doses of the antagonist, completely prevented stress-induced hyperthermia. In contrast, stress-induced cardiovascular responses were not affected by the blockade (except small reduction of tachycardia by the highest dose of the drug). We conclude that in rats, 5-HT2A receptors mediate stress-induced hyperthermic responses, but are not involved in the genesis of stress-induced rises in heart rate or arterial pressure, and do not participate in cardiovascular control at rest.

Using selective memory to track concept drift effectively

In this paper we describe a supervised learning algorithm that uses selective memory to track concept drift. Unlike previous methods to track concept drift that use window heuristics to adapt to changes, we present an improved approach that discriminates between the instances observed. The advantage of this method is that it allows the system to both adapt to and track drift more accurately as well as filter the noise in the data more effectively. We present the algorithm and compare its performance with FLORA a well known concept drift tracking algorithm.

3D fibrous structures as cardiovascular implants

Medical textiles are a highly specialised stream of technical textiles industry with a growing range of applications. A significant advancement has been achieved in surgical products or biomedical textiles (implantable/non-implantable) with the advent of 3D textile manufacturing techniques. Cardiovascular soft tissue implants (vascular grafts) have been a field of interest over decades for use of innovative 3D tubular structures in treatment of cardiovascular diseases. In the field of soft tissue implants, knitted and woven tubular structures are being used for large diameter blood vessel replacements. Advent of electrospinning and tissue engineering techniques has been able to provide promising answers to small diameter vascular grafts. The aim of this review is to outline the approaches in vascular graft development utilising different 3D tubular structure forming techniques. The emphasis is on vascular graft development techniques that can help improve treatment efficacy in future.

Improving the cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia : a modelling study

Background : Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Like many countries, Australia is currently changing its guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention from drug treatment for everyone with 'high blood pressure' or 'high cholesterol', to prevention based on a patient's absolute risk. In this research, we model cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention with blood pressure and lipid drugs in Australia under three different scenarios: (1) the true current practice in Australia; (2) prevention as intended under the current guidelines; and (3) prevention according to proposed absolute risk levels. We consider the implications of changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention, for the health of the Australian people and for Government health sector expenditure over the long term.

Methods : We evaluate cost-effectiveness of statins, diuretics, ACE inhibitors, calcium channel blockers and beta-blockers, for Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Epidemiological changes and health care costs are simulated by age and sex in a discrete time Markov model, to determine total impacts on population health and health sector costs over the lifetime, from which we derive cost-effectiveness ratios in 2008 Australian dollars per quality-adjusted life year.

Results : Cardiovascular disease prevention based on absolute risk is more cost-effective than prevention under the current guidelines based on single risk factor thresholds, and is more cost-effective than the current practice, which does not follow current clinical guidelines. Recommending blood pressure-lowering drugs to everyone with at least 5% absolute risk and statin drugs to everyone with at least 10% absolute risk, can achieve current levels of population health, while saving $5.4 billion for the Australian Government over the lifetime of the population. But savings could be as high as $7.1 billion if Australia could match the cheaper price of statin drugs in New Zealand.

Conclusions : Changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention is highly recommended for reducing health sector spending, but the Australian Government must also consider measures to reduce the cost of statin drugs, over and above the legislated price cuts of November 2010.

Potential of pharmacists to help reduce the burden of poorly managed cardiovascular risk

Introduction: Rural areas require better use of existing health professionals to ensure capacity to deliver improved cardiovascular outcomes. Community pharmacists (CPs) are accessible to most communities and can potentially undertake expanded roles in prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Objective: This study aims to establish frequency of contact with general practitioners (GPs) and CPs by patients at high risk of CVD or with inadequately controlled CVD risk factors.

Design, setting and participants: Population survey using randomly selected individuals from the Wimmera region electoral roll and incorporating a physical health check and self-administered health questionnaire. Overall, 1500 were invited to participate.

Results: The participation rate was 51% when ineligible individuals were excluded. Nine out of 10 participants visited one or both types of practitioner in the previous 12 months. Substantially more participants visited GPs compared with CPs (88.5% versus 66.8%). With the exception of excess alcohol intake, the median number of opportunities to intervene for every inadequately controlled CVD risk factor and among high risk patient groups at least doubled for the professions combined when compared with GP visits alone.

Conclusion: Opportunities exist to intervene more frequently with target groups by engaging CPs more effectively but would require a significant attitude shift towards CPs. Mechanisms for greater pharmacist integration into primary care teams should be investigated.

Population-level changes to promote cardiovascular health

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) cause 1.8 million premature (<75 years) death annually in Europe. The majority of these deaths are preventable with the most efficient and cost-effective approach being on the population level. The aim of this position paper is to assist authorities in selecting the most adequate management strategies to prevent CVD.

Design and Methods: Experts reviewed and summarized the published evidence on the major modifiable CVD risk factors: food, physical inactivity, smoking, and alcohol. Population-based preventive strategies focus on fiscal measures (e.g. taxation), national and regional policies (e.g. smoke-free legislation), and environmental changes (e.g. availability of alcohol).

Results: Food is a complex area, but several strategies can be effective in increasing fruit and vegetables and lowering intake of salt, saturated fat, trans-fats, and free sugars. Tobacco and alcohol can be regulated mainly by fiscal measures and national policies, but local availability also plays a role. Changes in national policies and the built environment will integrate physical activity into daily life.

Conclusion: Societal changes and commercial influences have led to the present unhealthy environment, in which default option in life style increases CVD risk. A challenge for both central and local authorities is, therefore, to ensure healthier defaults. This position paper summarizes the evidence and recommends a number of structural strategies at international, national, and regional levels that in combination can substantially reduce CVD.

Cardiovascular risk factors and psychological distress in Australian farming communities

Objective:  To examine the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, psychological distress and associations between physical and mental health parameters within a cohort of the Australian farming community.

Design:  Cross-sectional descriptive study.

Setting:  Farming communities across Australia.

Participants:  Data of men (n = 957) and women (n = 835) farmers from 97 locations across Australia were stratified into categories based on National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines.

Main outcome measure(s):  Prevalence of and interrelationship between overweight, obesity, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, diabetes risk and psychological distress.

Results:  There was a higher prevalence of overweight (42.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 34.2–50.8), obesity (21.8%, 95% CI, 18.3–25.3), abdominal adiposity (38.4% 95% CI, 24.5–52.5), hypertension (54.0%, 95% CI, 34.4–73.5) and diabetes risk (25.3%, 95% CI, 17.7–36.7) in the farming cohort compared with national data. There was also a positive significant association between the prevalence of psychological distress and obesity, abdominal adiposity, body fat percentage and metabolic syndrome in older (age ≥ 50 years) participants.

Conclusions:  This study group of farming men and women exhibited an increased prevalence of CVD risk factors and co-morbidities. The findings indicate a positive association between psychological distress and risk for developing CVD, particularly in the older farmers. If the younger cohort were to maintain elevated rates of psychological distress, then it is foreseeable that the next generation of farmers could experience poorer physical health than their predecessors.

Five-year change in cardiovascular risk factors according to education level : the Australian diabetes, obesity and lifestyle (AusDiab) study

Background: Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is strongly associated with a higher prevalence of major cardiovascular risk factors, but few studies have examined changes in these risk factors over time according to SES. We aimed to determine whether SES is a predictor of the change in cardiovascular risk factor levels in a contemporary Australian adult cohort

Methods: Participants in the population-based AusDiab study aged 25+ years who attended both baseline and 5-year follow-up examinations (n=5 954) were categorised according to their level of education at baseline. Cardiovascular risk factor data at both time points were ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement. Analysis was stratified by gender.

Results: The mean levels of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and the prevalence of smoking decreased between the two time points across all educational categories. Increases were also seen in mean BMI and the prevalence of diabetes. For blood pressure, the smallest decrease was seen among men with lower education (age-adjusted difference from higher education 2.8 mmHg, 95% CI 1.0 to 4.6). For total cholesterol, the decrease was greatest among women with lower education (age-adjusted difference from higher education 0.11 mmol/l, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.02). Among those "not at risk" at baseline for each risk factor, women with lower education were more likely than those with higher education to progress to being "at risk" for BMI (age-adjusted odds ratio 1.60, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.35).

Conclusion: Educational gradients narrowed for total cholesterol in women, but widened for systolic blood pressure in men and remained static for other risk factors. Lower education was also associated with an earlier onset of overweight or obesity in women. Given current socioeconomic gradients in risk factors levels, these findings suggest that social inequalities in CVD will persist and may even widen in the future.

Incidence of cardiovascular risk factors by education level 2000-2005 : the Australian diabetes, obesity and lifestyle (AusDiab) cohort study

Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with a higher prevalence of major risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, few longitudinal studies have examined the association between SES and CVD risk factors over time. We aimed to determine whether SES, using education as a proxy, is associated with the onset of CVD risk factors over 5 years in an Australian adult cohort study.

Participants in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab) study aged 25 years and over who attended both baseline and 5-year follow-up examinations (n=5 967) were categorised according to educational attainment. Cardiovascular risk factor data at both time points were ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement.

Women with lower education had a greater risk of progressing from normal weight to overweight or obesity than those with higher education (age-adjusted OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.06-2.31). Both men and women with lower education were more likely to develop diabetes (age-adjusted OR from higher education 1.75, 95% CI 1.14-2.71 and 3.01, 95% CI 1.26-7.20, respectively). A lower level of education was associated with a greater number of risk factors accumulated over time in women (OR of progressing from having two or less risk factors at baseline to three or more at follow up, 2.04, 95% 1.32-3.14).

In this Australian population-based study, lower educational attainment was associated with an increased risk of developing both individual and total CVD risk factors over a 5-year period. These findings suggest that SES inequalities in CVD will persist into the future.