960 resultados para Box-Jenkins
Resumo:
The development of a permanent, stable ice sheet in East Antarctica happened during the middle Miocene, about 14 million years (Myr) ago. The middle Miocene therefore represents one of the distinct phases of rapid change in the transition from the "greenhouse" of the early Eocene to the "icehouse" of the present day. Carbonate carbon isotope records of the period immediately following the main stage of ice sheet development reveal a major perturbation in the carbon system, represented by the positive d13C excursion known as carbon maximum 6 ("M6"), which has traditionally been interpreted as reflecting increased burial of organic matter and atmospheric pCO2 drawdown. More recently, it has been suggested that the d13C excursion records a negative feedback resulting from the reduction of silicate weathering and an increase in atmospheric pCO2. Here we present high-resolution multi-proxy (alkenone carbon and foraminiferal boron isotope) records of atmospheric carbon dioxide and sea surface temperature across CM6. Similar to previously published records spanning this interval, our records document a world of generally low (~300 ppm) atmospheric pCO2 at a time generally accepted to be much warmer than today. Crucially, they also reveal a pCO2 decrease with associated cooling, which demonstrates that the carbon burial hypothesis for CM6 is feasible and could have acted as a positive feedback on global cooling.
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A multiproxy data set of an AMS radiocarbon dated 46 cm long sediment core from the continental margin off western Svalbard reveals multidecadal climatic variability during the past two millennia. Investigation of planktic and benthic stable isotopes, planktic foraminiferal fauna, and lithogenic parameters aims to unveil the Atlantic Water advection to the eastern Fram Strait by intensity, temperatures, and salinities. Atlantic Water has been continuously present at the site over the last 2,000 years. Superimposed on the increase in sea ice/icebergs, a strengthened intensity of Atlantic Water inflow and seasonal ice-free conditions were detected at ~ 1000 to 1200 AD, during the well-known Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). However, temperatures of the MCA never exceeded those of the 20th century. Since ~ 1400 AD significantly higher portions of ice rafted debris and high planktic foraminifer fluxes suggest that the site was located in the region of a seasonal highly fluctuating sea ice margin. A sharp reduction in planktic foraminifer fluxes around 800 AD and after 1730 AD indicates cool summer conditions with major influence of sea ice/icebergs. High amounts of the subpolar planktic foraminifer species Turborotalia quinqueloba in size fraction 150-250 µm indicate strengthened Atlantic Water inflow to the eastern Fram Strait already after ~ 1860 AD. Nevertheless surface conditions stayed cold well into the 20th century indicated by low planktic foraminiferal fluxes. Most likely at the beginning of the 20th century, cold conditions of the terminating Little Ice Age period persisted at the surface whereas warm and saline Atlantic Water already strengthened, hereby subsiding below the cold upper mixed layer. Surface sediments with high abundances of subpolar planktic foraminifers indicate a strong inflow of Atlantic Water providing seasonal ice-free conditions in the eastern Fram Strait during the last few decades.
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A novel two-box model for joint compensation of nonlinear distortion introduced from both in-phase/quadrature modulator and power amplifier is proposed for concurrent dual-band wireless transmitters. Compensation of nonlinear distortion is accomplished in two phases, where phases are identified separately. It is shown that complexity of the digital predistortion is reduced. The performance of the proposed model is evaluated in terms of ACPR, EVM and NMSE improvements using 1.4 MHz LTE and WCDMA signals.
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The following pages take the form of a refresher (or even beginning) course in culvert hydraulics, the experimental data being used to illustrate and substantiate the discussion rather than forming the principal exhibit as in the customary report. Even before speaking of culverts themselves, the writers have hence inserted basic material on the various flow phenomena involved in culvert operation, so that the subsequent treatment will not presume more than the reader already has in mind.
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Poster presentation at the University of Maryland Libraries Research & Innovative Practice Forum on June 8, 2016. The poster proposes that the UMD Libraries should evaluate adoption of Bento Box Discovery for improved user search experience.
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Hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary oxidant in the troposphere, initiating the removal of numerous atmospheric species including greenhouse gases, pollutants that are detrimental to human health, and ozone-depleting substances. Because of the complexity of OH chemistry, models vary widely in their OH chemistry schemes and resulting methane (CH4) lifetimes. The current state of knowledge concerning global OH abundances is often contradictory. This body of work encompasses three projects that investigate tropospheric OH from a modeling perspective, with the goal of improving the tropospheric community’s knowledge of the atmospheric lifetime of CH4. First, measurements taken during the airborne CONvective TRansport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) field campaign are used to evaluate OH in global models. A box model constrained to measured variables is utilized to infer concentrations of OH along the flight track. Results are used to evaluate global model performance, suggest against the existence of a proposed “OH Hole” in the tropical Western Pacific, and investigate implications of high O3/low H2O filaments on chemical transport to the stratosphere. While methyl chloroform-based estimates of global mean OH suggest that models are overestimating OH, we report evidence that these models are actually underestimating OH in the tropical Western Pacific. The second project examines OH within global models to diagnose differences in CH4 lifetime. I developed an approach to quantify the roles of OH precursor field differences (O3, H2O, CO, NOx, etc.) using a neural network method. This technique enables us to approximate the change in CH4 lifetime resulting from variations in individual precursor fields. The dominant factors driving CH4 lifetime differences between models are O3, CO, and J(O3-O1D). My third project evaluates the effect of climate change on global fields of OH using an empirical model. Observations of H2O and O3 from satellite instruments are combined with a simulation of tropical expansion to derive changes in global mean OH over the past 25 years. We find that increasing H2O and increasing width of the tropics tend to increase global mean OH, countering the increasing CH4 sink and resulting in well-buffered global tropospheric OH concentrations.
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I argue (1) that Alvin Plantinga’s theory of warrant is plausible and (2) that, contrary to the Pandora’s Box objection, there are certain serious world religions that cannot successfully use Plantinga’s epistemology to demonstrate that their beliefs could be warranted in the same way that Christian belief can be warranted. In arguing for (1), I deploy Ernest Sosa’s Swampman case to show that Plantinga’s proper function condition is a necessary condition for warrant. I then engage three objections to Plantinga’s theory of warrant, each of which attempts to demonstrate that his conditions for warrant are neither necessary nor sufficient. Having defended the plausibility of Plantinga’s theory of warrant, I present and expand his key arguments to the effect that naturalism cannot make use of it. These arguments provide the conceptual tools that are needed to argue for (2): that there are certain world religions that cannot legitimately use Plantinga’s theory of warrant to demonstrate that their beliefs could be warranted in the same way that Christian belief can be warranted.