Development of an optimization model for biofuel facility size and location and a simulation model for design of a biofuel supply chain

To mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil, the United States (U.S.) is pursuing several options to create biofuels from renewable woody biomass (hereafter referred to as “biomass”). Because of the distributed nature of biomass feedstock, the cost and complexity of biomass recovery operations has significant challenges that hinder increased biomass utilization for energy production. To facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization and tapping unused forest residues, it is proposed to develop biofuel supply chain models based on optimization and simulation approaches. The biofuel supply chain is structured around four components: biofuel facility locations and sizes, biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation, and storage. A Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach is proposed as a first step for selecting potential facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass based on a set of evaluation criteria, such as accessibility to biomass, railway/road transportation network, water body and workforce. The development of optimization and simulation models is also proposed. The results of the models will be used to determine (1) the number, location, and size of the biofuel facilities, and (2) the amounts of biomass to be transported between the harvesting areas and the biofuel facilities over a 20-year timeframe. The multi-criteria objective is to minimize the weighted sum of the delivered feedstock cost, energy consumption, and GHG emissions simultaneously. Finally, a series of sensitivity analyses will be conducted to identify the sensitivity of the decisions, such as the optimal site selected for the biofuel facility, to changes in influential parameters, such as biomass availability and transportation fuel price. Intellectual Merit The proposed research will facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization in the renewable biofuel industry. The GIS-based facility location analysis considers a series of factors which have not been considered simultaneously in previous research. Location analysis is critical to the financial success of producing biofuel. The modeling of woody biomass supply chains using both optimization and simulation, combing with the GIS-based approach as a precursor, have not been done to date. The optimization and simulation models can help to ensure the economic and environmental viability and sustainability of the entire biofuel supply chain at both the strategic design level and the operational planning level. Broader Impacts The proposed models for biorefineries can be applied to other types of manufacturing or processing operations using biomass. This is because the biomass feedstock supply chain is similar, if not the same, for biorefineries, biomass fired or co-fired power plants, or torrefaction/pelletization operations. Additionally, the research results of this research will continue to be disseminated internationally through publications in journals, such as Biomass and Bioenergy, and Renewable Energy, and presentations at conferences, such as the 2011 Industrial Engineering Research Conference. For example, part of the research work related to biofuel facility identification has been published: Zhang, Johnson and Sutherland [2011] (see Appendix A). There will also be opportunities for the Michigan Tech campus community to learn about the research through the Sustainable Future Institute.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR BIOFUEL FACILITY SIZE AND LOCATION AND A SIMULATION MODEL FOR DESIGN OF A BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN

A range of societal issues have been caused by fossil fuel consumption in the transportation sector in the United States (U.S.), including health related air pollution, climate change, the dependence on imported oil, and other oil related national security concerns. Biofuels production from various lignocellulosic biomass types such as wood, forest residues, and agriculture residues have the potential to replace a substantial portion of the total fossil fuel consumption. This research focuses on locating biofuel facilities and designing the biofuel supply chain to minimize the overall cost. For this purpose an integrated methodology was proposed by combining the GIS technology with simulation and optimization modeling methods. The GIS based methodology was used as a precursor for selecting biofuel facility locations by employing a series of decision factors. The resulted candidate sites for biofuel production served as inputs for simulation and optimization modeling. As a precursor to simulation or optimization modeling, the GIS-based methodology was used to preselect potential biofuel facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass. Candidate locations were selected based on a set of evaluation criteria, including: county boundaries, a railroad transportation network, a state/federal road transportation network, water body (rivers, lakes, etc.) dispersion, city and village dispersion, a population census, biomass production, and no co-location with co-fired power plants. The simulation and optimization models were built around key supply activities including biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation and storage. The built onsite storage served for spring breakup period where road restrictions were in place and truck transportation on certain roads was limited. Both models were evaluated using multiple performance indicators, including cost (consisting of the delivered feedstock cost, and inventory holding cost), energy consumption, and GHG emissions. The impact of energy consumption and GHG emissions were expressed in monetary terms to keep consistent with cost. Compared with the optimization model, the simulation model represents a more dynamic look at a 20-year operation by considering the impacts associated with building inventory at the biorefinery to address the limited availability of biomass feedstock during the spring breakup period. The number of trucks required per day was estimated and the inventory level all year around was tracked. Through the exchange of information across different procedures (harvesting, transportation, and biomass feedstock processing procedures), a smooth flow of biomass from harvesting areas to a biofuel facility was implemented. The optimization model was developed to address issues related to locating multiple biofuel facilities simultaneously. The size of the potential biofuel facility is set up with an upper bound of 50 MGY and a lower bound of 30 MGY. The optimization model is a static, Mathematical Programming Language (MPL)-based application which allows for sensitivity analysis by changing inputs to evaluate different scenarios. It was found that annual biofuel demand and biomass availability impacts the optimal results of biofuel facility locations and sizes.

MODEL UPDATING AND STRUCTURAL HEALTH MONITORING OF HORIZONTAL AXIS WIND TURBINES VIA ADVANCED SPINNING FINITE ELEMENTS AND STOCHASTIC SUBSPACE IDENTIFICATION METHODS

Wind energy has been one of the most growing sectors of the nation’s renewable energy portfolio for the past decade, and the same tendency is being projected for the upcoming years given the aggressive governmental policies for the reduction of fossil fuel dependency. Great technological expectation and outstanding commercial penetration has shown the so called Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT) technologies. Given its great acceptance, size evolution of wind turbines over time has increased exponentially. However, safety and economical concerns have emerged as a result of the newly design tendencies for massive scale wind turbine structures presenting high slenderness ratios and complex shapes, typically located in remote areas (e.g. offshore wind farms). In this regard, safety operation requires not only having first-hand information regarding actual structural dynamic conditions under aerodynamic action, but also a deep understanding of the environmental factors in which these multibody rotating structures operate. Given the cyclo-stochastic patterns of the wind loading exerting pressure on a HAWT, a probabilistic framework is appropriate to characterize the risk of failure in terms of resistance and serviceability conditions, at any given time. Furthermore, sources of uncertainty such as material imperfections, buffeting and flutter, aeroelastic damping, gyroscopic effects, turbulence, among others, have pleaded for the use of a more sophisticated mathematical framework that could properly handle all these sources of indetermination. The attainable modeling complexity that arises as a result of these characterizations demands a data-driven experimental validation methodology to calibrate and corroborate the model. For this aim, System Identification (SI) techniques offer a spectrum of well-established numerical methods appropriated for stationary, deterministic, and data-driven numerical schemes, capable of predicting actual dynamic states (eigenrealizations) of traditional time-invariant dynamic systems. As a consequence, it is proposed a modified data-driven SI metric based on the so called Subspace Realization Theory, now adapted for stochastic non-stationary and timevarying systems, as is the case of HAWT’s complex aerodynamics. Simultaneously, this investigation explores the characterization of the turbine loading and response envelopes for critical failure modes of the structural components the wind turbine is made of. In the long run, both aerodynamic framework (theoretical model) and system identification (experimental model) will be merged in a numerical engine formulated as a search algorithm for model updating, also known as Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) process. This iterative engine is based on a set of function minimizations computed by a metric called Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC). In summary, the Thesis is composed of four major parts: (1) development of an analytical aerodynamic framework that predicts interacted wind-structure stochastic loads on wind turbine components; (2) development of a novel tapered-swept-corved Spinning Finite Element (SFE) that includes dampedgyroscopic effects and axial-flexural-torsional coupling; (3) a novel data-driven structural health monitoring (SHM) algorithm via stochastic subspace identification methods; and (4) a numerical search (optimization) engine based on ASA and MAC capable of updating the SFE aerodynamic model.

Classification of support staff in a consortium medical library: a case study.

A representative committee of Houston Academy of Medicine-Texas Medical Center Library staff and faculty, under the direction of the library administration, successfully redesigned a job classification system for the library's nonprofessional staff. In the new system all nonprofessionals are assigned to one of five grade levels, each with a corresponding salary range. To determine its appropriate grade level each job is analyzed and assigned a numerical value using a point system based on a set of five factors, each of which is assigned a relative number of points. The factors used to measure jobs are: education and experience, complexity of work, administrative accountability, manual skill, and contact with users. Each factor is described according to degrees, so that a job can be given partial credit for a factor. An advisory staff classification committee now participates in the ongoing administration of the classification system.

Spiele mit Glauben. Zur Erfassung und Analyse von religiösen Inhalten in Computerspielen

Computerspiele sind ein religionswissenschaftlich relevanter Forschungsgegenstand. Durch ihre weite gesellschaftliche Verbreitung und die häufige Vermittlung religiöser Inhalte sind sie Beispiele der medialen Kommunikation über Religion sowie Agenten der religiösen Sozialisation. Bislang fehlen Methoden, um Computerspiele auf relevante Inhalte und deren Bedeutungen hin zu lesen. Auf der Grundlage der Zeichenlehre von Charles S. Peirce und der Theorie der Spielelemente nach Aki Järvinen wird eine Methode zur Feststellung und Analyse von religiösen Inhalten in Computerspielen vorgestellt und am Beispiel des erfolgreichen Strategiespiels Civilization V: Gods & Kings veranschaulicht. Der Beschreibung und Inhaltsanalyse folgt eine Interpretation in Anlehnung an medienspezifische Theorien und Beobachtungen.

Educational Systems and Gender Segregation in Education: A Three-Country Comparison of Germany, Norway and Canada

How do institutional settings and their embedded policy principles affect gender-typed enrolment in educational programmes? Based on gender-sensitive theories on career choice, we hypothesised that gender segregation in education is higher with a wider range of offers of vocational programmes. By analysing youth survey and panel data, we tested this assumption for Germany, Norway and Canada, three countries whose educational systems represent a different mix of academic, vocational and universalistic education principles. We found that vocational programmes are considerably more gender-segregated than are academic (e.g. university) programmes. Men, more so than women, can avoid gender-typed programmes by passing on to a university education. This in turn means that as long as their secondary school achievement does not allow for a higher education career, they have a higher likelihood of being allocated to male-typed programmes in the vocational education and training (VET) system. In addition, social background and the age at which students have to choose educational offers impact on the transition to gendered educational programmes. Overall, gender segregation in education is highest in Germany and the lowest in Canada. We interpret the differences between these countries with respect to the constellations of educational principles and policies in the respective countries.

A note on the selection of priority rules in software packages for project management

Various software packages for project management include a procedure for resource-constrained scheduling. In several packages, the user can influence this procedure by selecting a priority rule. However, the resource-allocation methods that are implemented in the procedures are proprietary information; therefore, the question of how the priority-rule selection impacts the performance of the procedures arises. We experimentally evaluate the resource-allocation methods of eight recent software packages using the 600 instances of the PSPLIB J120 test set. The results of our analysis indicate that applying the default rule tends to outperform a randomly selected rule, whereas applying two randomly selected rules tends to outperform the default rule. Applying a small set of more than two rules further improves the project durations considerably. However, a large number of rules must be applied to obtain the best possible project durations.

External validation of the Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model for predicting death within 1 year after hospital admission

BACKGROUND Predicting long-term survival after admission to hospital is helpful for clinical, administrative and research purposes. The Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model was derived and internally validated to predict the risk of death within 1 year after admission. We conducted an external validation of the model in a large multicentre study. METHODS We used administrative data for all nonpsychiatric admissions of adult patients to hospitals in the provinces of Ontario (2003-2010) and Alberta (2011-2012), and to the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston (2010-2012) to calculate each patient's HOMR score at admission. The HOMR score is based on a set of parameters that captures patient demographics, health burden and severity of acute illness. We determined patient status (alive or dead) 1 year after admission using population-based registries. RESULTS The 3 validation cohorts (n = 2,862,996 in Ontario, 210 595 in Alberta and 66,683 in Boston) were distinct from each other and from the derivation cohort. The overall risk of death within 1 year after admission was 8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7% to 8.8%). The HOMR score was strongly and significantly associated with risk of death in all populations and was highly discriminative, with a C statistic ranging from 0.89 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.91) to 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.92). Observed and expected outcome risks were similar (median absolute difference in percent dying in 1 yr 0.3%, interquartile range 0.05%-2.5%). INTERPRETATION The HOMR score, calculated using routinely collected administrative data, accurately predicted the risk of death among adult patients within 1 year after admission to hospital for nonpsychiatric indications. Similar performance was seen when the score was used in geographically and temporally diverse populations. The HOMR model can be used for risk adjustment in analyses of health administrative data to predict long-term survival among hospital patients.

Bone marrow-derived stem/progenitor cells play an important role in the growth of Ewing's sarcoma tumors

Both angiogenesis and vasculogenesis contribute to the formation and expansion of tumor neovasculature. We demonstrated that bone marrow (BM)-derived cells migrated to TC71 Ewing's tumors and differentiated into endothelial cells lining perfused, functional tumor neovessels. In addition, a substantial fraction of recruited, BM-derived cells resided in the vessel vicinity but did not demonstrate endothelial differentiation. Rather, these perivascular cells expressed desmin and PDGFR-β, implying pericyte-like/vascular smooth muscle cell differentiation. No defined, consensus set of markers exists for endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) and the specific subsets of BM cells that participate in vessel formation are poorly understood. We used a functional in vivo assay to investigate the roles performed by specific human- and murine-derived stem/progenitor subpopulations within Ewing's sarcoma tumors. CD34 +45+, CD34+38-, VEGFR2 + and Sca1+Gr1+ cells were demonstrated to establish residence within the expanding tumor vascular network and differentiate into endothelial cells and pericytes. By constrast, CD34-45 + and Sca1-Gr1+ cells predominantly localized to sites outside the Ewing's tumor vasculature, and differentiated into macrophages. Cytokines, such as VEGF, influence the recruitment of BM cells and their incorporation into the tumor vasculature. VEGF165-inhibited TC/siVEGF7-1 Ewing's tumors showed delayed in vivo tumor growth, decreased vessel density, and reduced infiltration of BM progenitor cells. We tested whether another chemoattractant, Stromal Cell-Derived Factor-1 (SDF-1), could augment the growth of these VEGF165-inhibited TC/siVEGF 7-1 tumors by enhancing the recruitment of BM cells and stimulating neovasculature expansion. SDF-1 promoted progenitor cell chemotaxis and retainment of BM-derived pericyte precursors in close association with functional, perfused tumor blood vessels. Treatment of TC/siVEGF7-1 tumors with adenovirus-SDF-1α resulted in augmented tumor size, enhanced pericyte coverage of tumor neovessels, remodeling of vascular endothelium into larger, functional structures, and upregulation of PDGF-BB, with no effect on VEGF165. Taken together, these findings suggest that the recruitment of BM stem/progenitor cells plays an important role in the growth of Ewing's tumors. ^

An ordinal logistic regression model with misclassification of the outcome variable and categorical covariate

Ordinal outcomes are frequently employed in diagnosis and clinical trials. Clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatments are a case in point using the status of mild, moderate or severe disease as outcome measures. As in many other outcome oriented studies, the disease status may be misclassified. This study estimates the extent of misclassification in an ordinal outcome such as disease status. Also, this study estimates the extent of misclassification of a predictor variable such as genotype status. An ordinal logistic regression model is commonly used to model the relationship between disease status, the effect of treatment, and other predictive factors. A simulation study was done. First, data based on a set of hypothetical parameters and hypothetical rates of misclassification was created. Next, the maximum likelihood method was employed to generate likelihood equations accounting for misclassification. The Nelder-Mead Simplex method was used to solve for the misclassification and model parameters. Finally, this method was applied to an AD dataset to detect the amount of misclassification present. The estimates of the ordinal regression model parameters were close to the hypothetical parameters. β1 was hypothesized at 0.50 and the mean estimate was 0.488, β2 was hypothesized at 0.04 and the mean of the estimates was 0.04. Although the estimates for the rates of misclassification of X1 were not as close as β1 and β2, they validate this method. X 1 0-1 misclassification was hypothesized as 2.98% and the mean of the simulated estimates was 1.54% and, in the best case, the misclassification of k from high to medium was hypothesized at 4.87% and had a sample mean of 3.62%. In the AD dataset, the estimate for the odds ratio of X 1 of having both copies of the APOE 4 allele changed from an estimate of 1.377 to an estimate 1.418, demonstrating that the estimates of the odds ratio changed when the analysis includes adjustment for misclassification. ^

Editorial: The Role of Families

Family Preservation is an approach based upon a set of principles and values that are integrated throughout all human systems and services. One of the key principles of Family Preservation is the family as an expert.

Ordenamiento territorial y desarrollo local : provincia Cercado, Tarija, Bolivia

El proceso de ordenamiento territorial en Bolivia es relativamente nuevo y por tal razón el avance es mínimo si se piensa en los objetivos alcanzados hasta ahora. El presente trabajo pretende mostrar el avance logrado en uno de los departamentos de Bolivia, Tarija, donde en 5 años, se ha logrado elaborar un plan departamental de ordenamiento territorial y mediante la coordinación interinstitucional (prefectura y gobiernos municipales) se ha iniciado el mismo proceso de a nivel municipal. A partir de estos planes municipales se induce a municipios predominantemente urbanos a trabajar planes de ordenamiento territorial a partir de lineamientos planteados desde la prefectura, con el fin de iniciar los procesos de planificación urbana, actualizar la normativa y elaborar proyectos de desarrollo local. El objetivo del presente trabajo, es mostrar los avances a los que se pretende arribar gracias a un proceso metodológico de ordenamiento territorial incorporado a una dinámica urbana que interactúa constantemente con su área de influencia que en el caso boliviano es normalmente rural; pero además demostrar que el componente interdisciplinario en el caso de la planificación urbana es imprescindible considerando que hasta hace unos años este era un trabajo especifico de los colegas urbanistas y que en una realidad como la latinoamericana casi siempre quedaba en planos y en un viejo anaquel. Por lo tanto a partir de una interdisciplinariedad se puede lograr desarrollo local articulando y optimizando relaciones urbano-rurales que basan su desarrollo en un proceso metodológico como es el caso del ordenamiento territorial. El trabajo, se apoya en la guía metodológica para la elaboración de planes elaboradas por el Ministerio de Desarrollo Sostenible del gobierno boliviano, pero como tal cual su nombre expresa es una guía susceptible a ser adecuada a las exigencias del área de estudio, en este sentido sobre esa base es que se incorporan algunas variables de estudio que permitirán mejorar el producto a nivel de propuesta una vez concluido el trabajo. Contempla varias etapas donde la incorporación de los diferentes actores sociales será una clave para lograr resultados exitosos en la etapa de implementación. Actualmente el plan municipal de la provincia Cercado, es un proyecto a encarar en los próximos meses una vez cumplidos con los requisitos administrativos para iniciar el trabajo técnico que comprenderá un trabajo de campo, para el relevamiento de datos, la elaboración de un diagnóstico integral con dos ámbitos territoriales rural y urbano, para luego proceder al análisis territorial y el planteamiento de propuesta que incluirán políticas, estrategias, acciones y proyectos, pero no solo generará bases para el uso de suelo y la ocupación del territorio, a escala urbana se plantearan los lineamientos para el diseño y la normativa urbana. A partir del cual se definirán proyectos de desarrollo local que nos permita orientarnos hacia la imagen objetivo planteada en la visión del proyecto, este trabajo incluye el aspecto institucional para fortalecer al proceso que hasta esta ahora se encuentra desarticulado; se pretende consolidar el proceso de ordenamiento y dar inicio a otros en escalas de mayor detalle permitiendo la optimización de recursos y el aprovechamiento de las potencialidades y recursos naturales para mejorar la calidad de vida.

¿Escuela Socialista o Escuela Reformista? Una lectura de la Educación Socialista en México a partir de su lugar dentro del gobierno cardenista y la Revolución Mexicana

¿Qué significado cobra la reforma de la educación socialista llevada adelante por la gestión de Cárdenas en 1943 en una revisión sociohistórica más amplia de la realidad mexicana? La historia de la educación tiende a aislar el objeto de estudio, cuando la pregunta por la educación socialista no puede ser respondida sin contemplar la realidad social mexicana como una totalidad dialéctica. Siguiendo la estructura de un juego de muñecas rusas, analizaremos la reforma por sí misma, en el marco de la gestión cardenista, y por último de la Revolución Mexicana. Para regresar al comienzo con renovado ímpetu conceptual y fuentes selectas

Trayectorias laborales y habitacionales en hogares de un asentamiento en el área metropolitana del Gran Resistencia (AMGR), Chaco, Argentina

En este artículo abordamos el trabajo y la habitación como dos dimensiones centrales en la reproducción de la vida, enfatizando la realimentación mutua de ambas dimensiones. Caracterizamos las estrategias desplegadas por un conjunto de familias en un asentamiento en proceso de regularización urbana y dominial de la ciudad de Resistencia, capital de la Provincia del Chaco, en el Nordeste argentino. El trabajo de campo se realizó en el marco de una investigación de tesis de Licenciatura en Relaciones Laborales (RRLL) en la Universidad Nacional del Nordeste (UNNE) entre fines del año 2008 y principios del año 2009 y, si bien se basa en un conjunto de entrevistas a residentes de dicho asentamiento, se han puesto en relación un conjunto de indicadores que permiten contextualizar estas visiones subjetivas. La integración a redes de intercambio en diferentes niveles ?comunitario, a través de la integración en una ong o movimiento social, a nivel de las familias y dentro de las unidades domésticas? va construyendo un capital social colectivo que les permite reproducirse socialmente. Este abordaje, tributario de las formulaciones de Bourdieu, nos ha permitido resignificar prácticas, ampliando la noción de trabajo a la de estrategias de reproducción de la vida. Nuestro interés fue describir cómo algunas familias relatan e interpretan sus propias experiencias en relación con sus estrategias de supervivencia. El artículo avanza en una tipologización de las trayectorias estudiadas

¿Escuela Socialista o Escuela Reformista? Una lectura de la Educación Socialista en México a partir de su lugar dentro del gobierno cardenista y la Revolución Mexicana

¿Qué significado cobra la reforma de la educación socialista llevada adelante por la gestión de Cárdenas en 1943 en una revisión sociohistórica más amplia de la realidad mexicana? La historia de la educación tiende a aislar el objeto de estudio, cuando la pregunta por la educación socialista no puede ser respondida sin contemplar la realidad social mexicana como una totalidad dialéctica. Siguiendo la estructura de un juego de muñecas rusas, analizaremos la reforma por sí misma, en el marco de la gestión cardenista, y por último de la Revolución Mexicana. Para regresar al comienzo con renovado ímpetu conceptual y fuentes selectas