On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a lack of identification may not be evident since the posterior of a parameter of interest may differ from its prior even if the parameter is unidentified. We show that this can even be the case even if the priors assumed on the structural parameters are independent. We suggest two Bayesian identification indicators that do not suffer from this difficulty and are relatively easy to compute. The first applies to DSGE models where the parameters can be partitioned into those that are known to be identified and the rest where it is not known whether they are identified. In such cases the marginal posterior of an unidentified parameter will equal the posterior expectation of the prior for that parameter conditional on the identified parameters. The second indicator is more generally applicable and considers the rate at which the posterior precision gets updated as the sample size (T) is increased. For identified parameters the posterior precision rises with T, whilst for an unidentified parameter its posterior precision may be updated but its rate of update will be slower than T. This result assumes that the identified parameters are pT-consistent, but similar differential rates of updates for identified and unidentified parameters can be established in the case of super consistent estimators. These results are illustrated by means of simple DSGE models.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy for the OECD

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

Matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry for direct bacterial identification from positive blood culture pellets.

An ammonium chloride erythrocyte-lysing procedure was used to prepare a bacterial pellet from positive blood cultures for direct matrix-assisted laser desorption-ionization time of flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry analysis. Identification was obtained for 78.7% of the pellets tested. Moreover, 99% of the MALDI-TOF identifications were congruent at the species level when considering valid scores. This fast and accurate method is promising.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy: the OECD 1981-2003

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy: the OECD 1981-2003

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

Identification of particular groups of microRNAs that positively or negatively impact on beta cell function in obese models of type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: MicroRNAs are key regulators of gene expression involved in health and disease. The goal of our study was to investigate the global changes in beta cell microRNA expression occurring in two models of obesity-associated type 2 diabetes and to assess their potential contribution to the development of the disease. METHODS: MicroRNA profiling of pancreatic islets isolated from prediabetic and diabetic db/db mice and from mice fed a high-fat diet was performed by microarray. The functional impact of the changes in microRNA expression was assessed by reproducing them in vitro in primary rat and human beta cells. RESULTS: MicroRNAs differentially expressed in both models of obesity-associated type 2 diabetes fall into two distinct categories. A group including miR-132, miR-184 and miR-338-3p displays expression changes occurring long before the onset of diabetes. Functional studies indicate that these expression changes have positive effects on beta cell activities and mass. In contrast, modifications in the levels of miR-34a, miR-146a, miR-199a-3p, miR-203, miR-210 and miR-383 primarily occur in diabetic mice and result in increased beta cell apoptosis. These results indicate that obesity and insulin resistance trigger adaptations in the levels of particular microRNAs to allow sustained beta cell function, and that additional microRNA deregulation negatively impacting on insulin-secreting cells may cause beta cell demise and diabetes manifestation. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We propose that maintenance of blood glucose homeostasis or progression toward glucose intolerance and type 2 diabetes may be determined by the balance between expression changes of particular microRNAs.

Intraobserver and interobserver variability of ascending aorta diameter measurements as assessed by ECG-gated MDCT : automatic versus manual measurements : P15

Purpose: Revolutionary endovascular treatments are on the verge of being available for management of ascending aortic diseases. Morphometric measurements of the ascending aorta have already been done with ECG-gated MDCT to help such therapeutic development. However the reliability of these measurements remains unknown. The objective of this work was to compare the intraobserver and interobserver variability of CAD (computer aided diagnosis) versus manual measurements in the ascending aorta. Methods and materials: Twenty-six consecutive patients referred for ECG-gated CT thoracic angiography (64-row CT scanner) were evaluated. Measurements of the maximum and minimum ascending aorta diameters at mid-distance between the brachiocephalic artery and the aortic valve were obtained automatically with a commercially available CAD and manually by two observers separately. Both observers repeated the measurements during a different session at least one month after the first measurements. Intraclass coefficients as well the Bland and Altman method were used for comparison between measurements. Two-paired t-test was used to determine the significance of intraobserver and interobserver differences (alpha = 0.05). Results: There is a significant difference between CAD and manual measurements in the maximum diameter (p = 0.004) for the first observer, whereas the difference was significant for minimum diameter between the second observer and the CAD (p <0.001). Interobserver variability showed a weak agreement when measurements were done manually. Intraobserver variability was lower with the CAD compared to the manual measurements (limits of variability: from -0.7 to 0.9 mm for the former and from -1.2 to 1.3 mm for the latter). Conclusion: In order to improve reproductibility of measurements whenever needed, pre- and post-therapeutic management of the ascending aorta may benefit from follow-up done by a unique observer with the help of CAD.

Automatic front-crawl temporal phase detection using adaptive filtering of inertial signals

This study introduces a novel approach for automatic temporal phase detection and inter-arm coordination estimation in front-crawl swimming using inertial measurement units (IMUs). We examined the validity of our method by comparison against a video-based system. Three waterproofed IMUs (composed of 3D accelerometer, 3D gyroscope) were placed on both forearms and the sacrum of the swimmer. We used two underwater video cameras in side and frontal views as our reference system. Two independent operators performed the video analysis. To test our methodology, seven well-trained swimmers performed three 300 m trials in a 50 m indoor pool. Each trial was in a different coordination mode quantified by the index of coordination. We detected different phases of the arm stroke by employing orientation estimation techniques and a new adaptive change detection algorithm on inertial signals. The difference of 0.2 +/- 3.9% between our estimation and video-based system in assessment of the index of coordination was comparable to experienced operators' difference (1.1 +/- 3.6%). The 95% limits of agreement of the difference between the two systems in estimation of the temporal phases were always less than 7.9% of the cycle duration. The inertial system offers an automatic easy-to-use system with timely feedback for the study of swimming.

Identification of case complexity and increased health care utilization in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To document biopsychosocial profiles of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) by means of the INTERMED and to correlate the results with conventional methods of disease assessment and health care utilization. METHODS: Patients with RA (n = 75) were evaluated with the INTERMED, an instrument for assessing case complexity and care needs. Based on their INTERMED scores, patients were compared with regard to severity of illness, functional status, and health care utilization. RESULTS: In cluster analysis, a 2-cluster solution emerged, with about half of the patients characterized as complex. Complex patients scoring especially high in the psychosocial domain of the INTERMED were disabled significantly more often and took more psychotropic drugs. Although the 2 patient groups did not differ in severity of illness and functional status, complex patients rated their illness as more severe on subjective measures and on most items of the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36. Complex patients showed increased health care utilization despite a similar biologic profile. CONCLUSIONS: The INTERMED identified complex patients with increased health care utilization, provided meaningful and comprehensive patient information, and proved to be easy to implement and advantageous compared with conventional methods of disease assessment. Intervention studies will have to demonstrate whether management strategies based on INTERMED profiles can improve treatment response and outcome of complex patients.

Identification and characterization of novel molecular mechanisms involved in initiation and progression of myelination

Schwann cells synthesize a large amount of membrane that form a specialized structure called myelin that surrounds axons and facilitate the transmission of electrical signal along neurons in peripheral nervous system (PNS). Previous studies demonstrated that both Schwann cell differentiation and de-differentiation (in the situation of a nerve injury or demyelinating disease) are regulated by cell-intrinsic regulators including several transcription factors. In particular, the de-differentiation of mature Schwann cells is driven by the activation of multiple negative regulators of myelination including Sox2, c-Jun, Notch and Pax3, all usually expressed in immature Schwann cells and suppressed at the onset of myelination. In order to identify new regulators of myelination involved in the development of the PNS, we analyzed the gene-expression profiling data from developing PNS and from three models of demyelinating neuropathies. This analysis led to the identification of Sox4, a member of the Sox family of transcription factors, as a potential candidate. To characterize the molecular function of Sox4 in PNS, we generated two transgenic lines of mice, which overexpress Sox4 specifically in Schwann cells. Detailed analysis of these mice showed that the overexpression of Sox4 in Schwann cells causes a delay in progression of myelination between post-natal day 2 (P2) and P5. Our in vitro analysis suggested that Sox4 cDNA can be overexpressed while the protein translation is tightly regulated. Interestingly, we observed that Sox4 protein is stabilized in nerves of the CMT4C mouse, a model of the human neuropathy. We therefore crossed Sox4 transgenic mice with CMT4C mice and we observed that Sox4 overexpression exacerbated the neuropathy phenotype in these mice. While recognized as being crucial for the normal function of both neurons and myelinating glial cells, the processes that regulate the beginning of myelination and the nature of the neuro-glial cross-talk remains mostly unknown. In order to gain insight into the molecular pathways involved in the interactions between neurons and associated glial cells, we developed a neuron-glia co-culture system based on microfluidic chambers and successfully induced myelination in this system by ascorbic acid. Importantly, we observed that in addition to acting on Schwann cells, ascorbic acid also modulate neuronal/axonal NRG1/ErbB2-B3 signalling. The experimental setting used in our study thus allowed us to discover a novel phenomena of propagation for myelination in vitro. The further characterization of this event brought us to identify other compounds able to induce myelination: ADAMs secretases inhibitor GM6001 and cyclic-AMP. The results generated during my thesis project are therefore not only important for the advancement of our understanding of how the PNS works, but may also potentially help to develop new therapies aiming at improvement of PNS myelination under disease conditions. - Les cellules de Schwann synthétisent une grande quantité de membrane formant une structure spécialisée appelée myéline qui entoure les axones et facilite la transmission du signal électrique le long des neurones du système nerveux périphérique (SNP). Des études antérieures ont démontré que la différenciation et la dédifférenciation des cellules de Schwann (dans la situation d'une lésion nerveuse ou d'une maladie démyélinisante) sont régulées par des régulateurs cellulaires intrinsèques, incluant plusieurs facteurs de transcription. En particulier, la dédifférenciation des cellules de Schwann matures est contrôlée par l'activation de plusieurs régulateurs négatifs de la myélinisation dont Sox2, c-Jun, Notch et Pax3, tous habituellement exprimés dans des cellules de Schwann immatures et supprimés au début de la myélinisation. Afin d'identifier de nouveaux régulateurs de myélinisation impliqués dans le développement du SNP, nous avons analysé le profil d'expression génique durant le développement du SNP ainsi que dans trois modèles de neuropathies démyélinisantes. Cette analyse a mené à l'identification de Sox4, un membre de la famille des facteurs de transcription Sox, comme étant un candidat potentiel. Dans le but de caractériser la fonction moléculaire de Sox4 dans le SNP, nous avons généré deux lignées transgéniques de souris qui surexpriment Sox4 spécifiquement dans les cellules de Schwann. L'analyse détaillée de ces souris a montré que la surexpression de Sox4 dans les cellules de Schwann provoque un retard dans la progression de la myélinisation entre le jour postnatal 2 (P2) et P5. Notre analyse in vitro a suggéré que l'ADNc de Sox4 peut être surexprimé alors que la traduction des protéines est quand à elle étroitement régulée. De façon intéressante, nous avons observé que la protéine Sox4 est stabilisée dans les nerfs des souris CMT4C, un modèle de neuropathie humaine. Nous avons donc croisé les souris transgéniques Sox4 avec des souris CMT4C et avons observé que la surexpression de Sox4 exacerbe le phénotype de neuropathie chez ces souris. Bien que reconnus comme étant cruciaux pour le fonctionnement normal des neurones et des cellules gliales myélinisantes, les processus qui régulent le début de la myélinisation ainsi que la nature des interactions neurone-glie restent largement méconnus. Afin de mieux comprendre les mécanismes moléculaires impliqués dans les interactions entre les neurones et les cellules gliales leur étant associés, nous avons développé un système de co-culture neurone-glie basé sur des chambres microfluidiques et y avons induit avec succès la myélinisation avec de l'acide ascorbique. Étonnamment, nous avons remarqué que, en plus d'agir sur les cellules de Schwann, l'acide ascorbique module également la voie de signalisation neuronale/axonale NRG1/ErbB2-B3. Le protocole expérimental utilisé dans notre étude a ainsi permis de découvrir un nouveau phénomène de propagation de la myélinisation in vitro. La caractérisation plus poussée de ce phénomène nous a menés à identifier d'autres composés capables d'induire la myélinisation: L'inhibiteur de sécrétases ADAMs GM6001 et l'AMP cyclique. Les résultats obtenus au cours de mon projet de thèse ne sont donc pas seulement importants pour l'avancement de notre compréhension sur la façon dont le SNP fonctionne, mais peuvent aussi potentiellement aider à développer de nouvelles thérapies visant à l'amélioration de la myélinisation du SNP dans des conditions pathologiques.

Identification and characterization of sex-linked proteins of Schistosoma mansoni

The proteins of adults worms (male and female) of two isolates (BH and RJ) of Shistosoma mansoni were extracted using Triton X-114 phase separation. The SDS-polyacrilamide gel electrophoresis profiles of the three phases (detergent, aqueous and insoluble proteins) obtained were compared after Coomassie blue and silver staining, surface radioiodination and Western blotting. No major differences were detected between the 2 isolates. Of the 25 or more proteins which partitioned into the detergent phase, only about 8 proteins could be surface radiodinated on live adult worms. A comparison was also made between the profiles of mael and females worms, isolated from bisexually infected mice. Two major female-specific and one male-specific band were detected by silver and/or Coomassie staining. The female bands, 32 KDa and 18 KDa, partitioned into the detergent and aqueous phase, respectively. The male-specific band of 42 KDa remained in the insoluble phase. Antigenic differences between male and females protins were detected by Western vlotting using a sera from infected Nectomys squamipes.

Species identification in mammals from mixed biological samples based on mitochondrial DNA control region length polymorphism.

The ability to identify the species origin of an unknown biological sample is relevant in the fields of human and wildlife forensics. However, the detection of several species mixed in the same sample still remains a challenge. We developed and tested a new approach for mammal DNA identification in mixtures of two or three species, based on the analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region interspecific length polymorphism followed by direct sequencing. Contrary to other published methods dealing with species mixtures, our protocol requires a single universal primer pair and is not based on a pre-defined panel of species. Amplicons can be separated either on agarose gels or using CE. The advantages and limitations of the assay are discussed under different conditions, such as variable template concentration, amplicon sizes and size difference among the amplicons present in the mixture. For the first time, this protocol provides a simple, reliable and flexible method for simultaneous identification of multiple mammalian species from mixtures, without any prior knowledge of the species involved.