An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the skill of these models not only with each other but also with empirical models can reveal the space and time scales on which simulation models exploit their physical basis effectively and quantify their ability to add information to operational forecasts. The skill of decadal probabilistic hindcasts for annual global-mean and regional-mean temperatures from the EU Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project is contrasted with several empirical models. Both the ENSEMBLES models and a “dynamic climatology” empirical model show probabilistic skill above that of a static climatology for global-mean temperature. The dynamic climatology model, however, often outperforms the ENSEMBLES models. The fact that empirical models display skill similar to that of today's state-of-the-art simulation models suggests that empirical forecasts can improve decadal forecasts for climate services, just as in weather, medium-range, and seasonal forecasting. It is suggested that the direct comparison of simulation models with empirical models becomes a regular component of large model forecast evaluations. Doing so would clarify the extent to which state-of-the-art simulation models provide information beyond that available from simpler empirical models and clarify current limitations in using simulation forecasting for decision support. Ultimately, the skill of simulation models based on physical principles is expected to surpass that of empirical models in a changing climate; their direct comparison provides information on progress toward that goal, which is not available in model–model intercomparisons.

The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes

Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art climate models, we show that temperature extremes generally emerge slightly later from their quasi-natural climate state than seasonal means, due to greater variability in extremes. Nevertheless, according to model evidence, both hot and cold extremes have already emerged across many areas. Remarkably, even precipitation extremes that have very large variability are projected to emerge in the coming decades in Northern Hemisphere winters associated with a wettening trend. Based on our findings we expect local temperature and precipitation extremes to already differ significantly from their previous quasi-natural state at many locations or to do so in the near future. Our findings have implications for climate impacts and detection and attribution studies assessing observed changes in regional climate extremes by showing whether they will likely find a fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change.

Future, Fortune, and the graphic design of information

This is a study of graphic information designed for Future Books/Future magazine (UK) and Fortune magazine (USA) in the years immediately after the Second World War. It highlights work made by the Isotype Institute for Future, which is then situated against contributions by Abram Games and F. H. K. Henrion. Similar work in Fortune under the art editorship of Will Burtin is discussed in a parallel account, drawing on examples by him and by others including György Kepes, Matthew Liebowitz, Alex Steinweiss and Ladislav Sutnar. Attention is drawn to links and relationships between to the two periodicals and the graphic information published in both. Further comparisons are made between underlying editorial and design strategies pursued by Otto Neurath (Isotype Institute) and Will Burtin. An argument is made for recognising the little-known innovations of Future alongside the long-acknowledged innovations of Fortune.

Baseline and stress-induced plasma corticosterone concentrations of mice selectively bred for high voluntary wheel running

The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is important in regulating energy metabolism and in mediating responses to stressors, including increasing energy availability during physical exercise. In addition, glucocorticoids act directly on the central nervous system and influence behavior, including locomotor activity. To explore potential changes in the HPA axis as animals evolve higher voluntary activity levels, we characterized plasma corticosterone (CORT) concentrations and adrenal mass in four replicate lines of house mice that had been selectively bred for high voluntary wheel running (HR lines) for 34 generations and in four nonselected control (C) lines. We determined CORT concentrations under baseline conditions and immediately after exposure to a novel stressor (40 min of physical restraint) in mice that were housed without access to wheels. Resting daytime CORT concentrations were approximately twice as high in HR as in C mice for both sexes. Physical restraint increased CORT to similar concentrations in HR and C mice; consequently, the proportional response to restraint was smaller in HR than in C animals. Adrenal mass did not significantly differ between HR and C mice. Females had significantly higher baseline and postrestraint CORT concentrations and significantly larger adrenal glands than males in both HR and C lines. Replicate lines showed significant variation in body mass, length, baseline CORT concentrations, and postrestraint CORT concentrations in one or both sexes. Among lines, both body mass and length were significantly negatively correlated with baseline CORT concentrations, suggesting that CORT suppresses growth. Our results suggest that selection for increased locomotor activity has caused correlated changes in the HPA axis, resulting in higher baseline CORT concentrations and, possibly, reduced stress responsiveness and a lower growth rate. © 2007 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.

Clinical evaluation of multiple-surface ART restorations: three-year follow-up

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Identifique-se: Exposição de Mail Art, uma poética compartilhada

This work refers to a cut of my artistic creation path with some reflections on the subject other. Mail Art has been an alternative trend of art / avant-garde, where communication between artists networks is the goal to be achieved, therefore, from this statement, was approached some historical and particular aspects regarding the post and its contingencies in the art / forefront. Share this moment of academic completion with a postcard exhibition that will take place through the agency of other participating artists. To do so, were invited artists from the theme IDENTIFY UP to send work in postcard size with the exclusive use of the Post Office. The exhibition event will take place in the Gallery of the Art Institute. Participant of other similar projects, I believe I experienced a new role: who calls, organizes and rules.

Identifique-se: Exposição de Mail Art, uma poética compartilhada

This work refers to a cut of my artistic creation path with some reflections on the subject other. Mail Art has been an alternative trend of art / avant-garde, where communication between artists networks is the goal to be achieved, therefore, from this statement, was approached some historical and particular aspects regarding the post and its contingencies in the art / forefront. Share this moment of academic completion with a postcard exhibition that will take place through the agency of other participating artists. To do so, were invited artists from the theme IDENTIFY UP to send work in postcard size with the exclusive use of the Post Office. The exhibition event will take place in the Gallery of the Art Institute. Participant of other similar projects, I believe I experienced a new role: who calls, organizes and rules.

Role of transient receptor potential vanilloid 4 in rat joint inflammation

Objective To determine whether activation of transient receptor potential vanilloid 4 (TRPV-4) induces inflammation in the rat temporomandibular joint (TMJ), and to assess the effects of TRPV-4 agonists and proinflammatory mediators, such as a protease-activated receptor 2 (PAR-2) agonist, on TRPV-4 responses. Methods Four hours after intraarticular injection of carrageenan into the rat joints, expression of TRPV-4 and PAR-2 in trigeminal ganglion (TG) neurons and in the TMJs were evaluated by real-time reverse transcriptionpolymerase chain reaction and immunofluorescence, followed by confocal microscopy. The functionality of TRPV-4 and its sensitization by a PAR-2activating peptide (PAR-2AP) were analyzed by measuring the intracellular Ca2+ concentration in TMJ fibroblast-like synovial cells or TG neurons. Plasma extravasation, myeloperoxidase activity, and the head-withdrawal threshold (index of mechanical allodynia) were evaluated after intraarticular injection of selective TRPV-4 agonists, either injected alone or coinjected with PAR-2AP. Results In the rat TMJs, TRPV-4 and PAR-2 expression levels were up-regulated after the induction of inflammation. Two TRPV-4 agonists specifically activated calcium influx in TMJ fibroblast-like synovial cells or TG neurons. In vivo, the agonists triggered dose-dependent increases in plasma extravasation, myeloperoxidase activity, and mechanical allodynia. In synovial cells or TG neurons, pretreatment with PAR-2AP potentiated a TRPV-4 agonistinduced increase in [Ca2+]i. In addition, TRPV-4 agonistinduced inflammation was potentiated by PAR-2AP in vivo. Conclusion In this rat model, TRPV-4 is expressed and functional in TG neurons and synovial cells, and activation of TRPV-4 in vivo causes inflammation in the TMJ. Proinflammatory mediators, such as PAR-2 agonists, sensitize the activity of TRPV-4. These results identify TRPV-4 as an important signal of inflammation in the joint.

The dynamical state of galaxy groups and their luminosity content

We analyse the dependence of the luminosity function (LF) of galaxies in groups on group dynamical state. We use the Gaussianity of the velocity distribution of galaxy members as a measurement of the dynamical equilibrium of groups identified in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 by Zandivarez & Martinez. We apply the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit test to distinguish between groups according to whether they have Gaussian or non-Gaussian velocity distributions, i.e. whether they are relaxed or not. For these two subsamples, we compute the (0.1)r-band LF as a function of group virial mass and group total luminosity. For massive groups, , we find statistically significant differences between the LF of the two subsamples: the LFs of groups that have Gaussian velocity distributions have a brighter characteristic absolute magnitude (similar to 0.3 mag) and a steeper faint-end slope (similar to 0.25). We detect a similar effect when comparing the LF of bright [M-0.1r(group) - 5log(h) < -23.5] Gaussian and non-Gaussian groups. Our results indicate that, for massive/luminous groups, the dynamical state of the system is directly related to the luminosity of its galaxy members.

Processing of spectrally resolved x-ray images of inertial confinement fusion implosion cores recorded with multimonochromatic x-ray imagers

[EN] We discuss the processing of data recorded with multimonochromatic x-ray imagers (MMI) in inertial confinement fusion experiments. The MMI records hundreds of gated, spectrally resolved images that can be used to unravel the spatial structure of the implosion core. In particular, we present a new method to determine the centers in all the array of images, a better reconstruction technique of narrowband implosion core images, two algorithms to determine the shape and size of the implosion core volume based on reconstructed broadband images recorded along three-quasiorthogonal lines of sight, and the removal of artifacts from the space-integrated spectra.

Bioremediation of PAHs - Limitations and soultions

Introduction 1.1 Occurrence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in the environment Worldwide industrial and agricultural developments have released a large number of natural and synthetic hazardous compounds into the environment due to careless waste disposal, illegal waste dumping and accidental spills. As a result, there are numerous sites in the world that require cleanup of soils and groundwater. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are one of the major groups of these contaminants (Da Silva et al., 2003). PAHs constitute a diverse class of organic compounds consisting of two or more aromatic rings with various structural configurations (Prabhu and Phale, 2003). Being a derivative of benzene, PAHs are thermodynamically stable. In addition, these chemicals tend to adhere to particle surfaces, such as soils, because of their low water solubility and strong hydrophobicity, and this results in greater persistence under natural conditions. This persistence coupled with their potential carcinogenicity makes PAHs problematic environmental contaminants (Cerniglia, 1992; Sutherland, 1992). PAHs are widely found in high concentrations at many industrial sites, particularly those associated with petroleum, gas production and wood preserving industries (Wilson and Jones, 1993). 1.2 Remediation technologies Conventional techniques used for the remediation of soil polluted with organic contaminants include excavation of the contaminated soil and disposal to a landfill or capping - containment - of the contaminated areas of a site. These methods have some drawbacks. The first method simply moves the contamination elsewhere and may create significant risks in the excavation, handling and transport of hazardous material. Additionally, it is very difficult and increasingly expensive to find new landfill sites for the final disposal of the material. The cap and containment method is only an interim solution since the contamination remains on site, requiring monitoring and maintenance of the isolation barriers long into the future, with all the associated costs and potential liability. A better approach than these traditional methods is to completely destroy the pollutants, if possible, or transform them into harmless substances. Some technologies that have been used are high-temperature incineration and various types of chemical decomposition (for example, base-catalyzed dechlorination, UV oxidation). However, these methods have significant disadvantages, principally their technological complexity, high cost , and the lack of public acceptance. Bioremediation, on the contrast, is a promising option for the complete removal and destruction of contaminants. 1.3 Bioremediation of PAH contaminated soil & groundwater Bioremediation is the use of living organisms, primarily microorganisms, to degrade or detoxify hazardous wastes into harmless substances such as carbon dioxide, water and cell biomass Most PAHs are biodegradable unter natural conditions (Da Silva et al., 2003; Meysami and Baheri, 2003) and bioremediation for cleanup of PAH wastes has been extensively studied at both laboratory and commercial levels- It has been implemented at a number of contaminated sites, including the cleanup of the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska in 1989, the Mega Borg spill off the Texas coast in 1990 and the Burgan Oil Field, Kuwait in 1994 (Purwaningsih, 2002). Different strategies for PAH bioremediation, such as in situ , ex situ or on site bioremediation were developed in recent years. In situ bioremediation is a technique that is applied to soil and groundwater at the site without removing the contaminated soil or groundwater, based on the provision of optimum conditions for microbiological contaminant breakdown.. Ex situ bioremediation of PAHs, on the other hand, is a technique applied to soil and groundwater which has been removed from the site via excavation (soil) or pumping (water). Hazardous contaminants are converted in controlled bioreactors into harmless compounds in an efficient manner. 1.4 Bioavailability of PAH in the subsurface Frequently, PAH contamination in the environment is occurs as contaminants that are sorbed onto soilparticles rather than in phase (NAPL, non aqueous phase liquids). It is known that the biodegradation rate of most PAHs sorbed onto soil is far lower than rates measured in solution cultures of microorganisms with pure solid pollutants (Alexander and Scow, 1989; Hamaker, 1972). It is generally believed that only that fraction of PAHs dissolved in the solution can be metabolized by microorganisms in soil. The amount of contaminant that can be readily taken up and degraded by microorganisms is defined as bioavailability (Bosma et al., 1997; Maier, 2000). Two phenomena have been suggested to cause the low bioavailability of PAHs in soil (Danielsson, 2000). The first one is strong adsorption of the contaminants to the soil constituents which then leads to very slow release rates of contaminants to the aqueous phase. Sorption is often well correlated with soil organic matter content (Means, 1980) and significantly reduces biodegradation (Manilal and Alexander, 1991). The second phenomenon is slow mass transfer of pollutants, such as pore diffusion in the soil aggregates or diffusion in the organic matter in the soil. The complex set of these physical, chemical and biological processes is schematically illustrated in Figure 1. As shown in Figure 1, biodegradation processes are taking place in the soil solution while diffusion processes occur in the narrow pores in and between soil aggregates (Danielsson, 2000). Seemingly contradictory studies can be found in the literature that indicate the rate and final extent of metabolism may be either lower or higher for sorbed PAHs by soil than those for pure PAHs (Van Loosdrecht et al., 1990). These contrasting results demonstrate that the bioavailability of organic contaminants sorbed onto soil is far from being well understood. Besides bioavailability, there are several other factors influencing the rate and extent of biodegradation of PAHs in soil including microbial population characteristics, physical and chemical properties of PAHs and environmental factors (temperature, moisture, pH, degree of contamination). Figure 1: Schematic diagram showing possible rate-limiting processes during bioremediation of hydrophobic organic contaminants in a contaminated soil-water system (not to scale) (Danielsson, 2000). 1.5 Increasing the bioavailability of PAH in soil Attempts to improve the biodegradation of PAHs in soil by increasing their bioavailability include the use of surfactants , solvents or solubility enhancers.. However, introduction of synthetic surfactant may result in the addition of one more pollutant. (Wang and Brusseau, 1993).A study conducted by Mulder et al. showed that the introduction of hydropropyl-ß-cyclodextrin (HPCD), a well-known PAH solubility enhancer, significantly increased the solubilization of PAHs although it did not improve the biodegradation rate of PAHs (Mulder et al., 1998), indicating that further research is required in order to develop a feasible and efficient remediation method. Enhancing the extent of PAHs mass transfer from the soil phase to the liquid might prove an efficient and environmentally low-risk alternative way of addressing the problem of slow PAH biodegradation in soil.

Outdoor bronze conservation: assessment of protective treatments by accelerated aging and of treatment removal procedures by laser cleaning

Outdoor bronzes exposed to the environment form naturally a layer called patina, which may be able to protect the metallic substrate. However, since the last century, with the appearance of acid rains, a strong change in the nature and properties of the copper based patinas occurred [1]. Studies and general observations have established that bronze corrosion patinas created by acid rain are not only disfiguring in terms of loss of detail and homogeneity, but are also unstable [2]. The unstable patina is partially leached away by rainwater. This leaching is represented by green streaking on bronze monuments [3]. Because of the instability of the patina, conservation techniques are usually required. On a bronze object exposed to the outdoor environment, there are different actions of the rainfall and other atmospheric agents as a function of the monument shape. In fact, we recognize sheltered and unsheltered areas as regards exposure to rainwater [4]. As a consequence of these different actions, two main patina types are formed on monuments exposed to the outdoor environment. These patinas have different electrochemical, morphological and compositional characteristics [1]. In the case of sheltered areas, the patina contains mainly copper products, stratified above a layer strongly enriched in insoluble Sn oxides, located at the interface with the uncorroded metal. Moreover, different colors of the patina result from the exposure geometry. The surface color may be pale green for unsheltered areas, and green and mat black for sheltered areas [4]. Thus, in real outdoor bronze monuments, the corrosion behavior is strongly influenced by the exposure geometry. This must be taken into account when designing conservation procedures, since the patina is in most cases the support on which corrosion inhibitors are applied. Presently, for protecting outdoor bronzes against atmospheric corrosion, inhibitors and protective treatments are used. BTA and its derivatives, which are the most common inhibitors used for copper and its alloy, were found to be toxic for the environment and human health [5, 6]. Moreover, it has been demonstrated that BTA is efficient when applied on bare copper but not as efficient when applied on bare bronze [7]. Thus it was necessary to find alternative compounds. Silane-based inhibitors (already successfully tested on copper and other metallic substrates [8]), were taken into consideration as a non-toxic, environmentally friendly alternative to BTA derivatives for bronze protection. The purpose of this thesis was based on the assessment of the efficiency of a selected compound, to protect the bronze against corrosion, which is the 3-mercapto-propyl-trimethoxy-silane (PropS-SH). It was selected thanks to the collaboration with the Corrosion Studies Centre “Aldo Daccò” at the Università di Ferrara. Since previous studies [9, 10, 11] demonstrated that the addition of nanoparticles to silane-based inhibitors leads to an increase of the protective efficiency, we also wanted to evaluate the influence of the addition of CeO2, La2O3, TiO2 nanoparticles on the protective efficiency of 3-mercapto-propyl-trimethoxy-silane, applied on pre-patinated bronze surfaces. This study is the first section of the thesis. Since restorers have to work on patinated bronzes and not on bare metal (except for contemporary art), it is important to be able to recreate the patina, under laboratory conditions, either in sheltered or unsheltered conditions to test the coating and to obtain reliable results. Therefore, at the University of Bologna, different devices have been designed to simulate the real outdoor conditions and to create a patina which is representative of real application conditions of inhibitor or protective treatments. In particular, accelerated ageing devices by wet & dry (simulating the action of stagnant rain in sheltered areas [12]) and by dropping (simulating the leaching action of the rain in unsheltered areas [1]) tests were used. In the present work, we used the dropping test as a method to produce pre-patinated bronze surfaces for the application of a candidate inhibitor as well as for evaluating its protective efficiency on aged bronze (unsheltered areas). In this thesis, gilded bronzes were also studied. When they are exposed to the outside environment, a corrosion phenomenon appears which is due to the electrochemical couple gold/copper where copper is the anode. In the presence of an electrolyte, this phenomenon results in the formation of corrosion products than will cause a blistering of the gold (or a break-up and loss of the film in some cases). Moreover, because of the diffusion of the copper salts to the surface, aggregates and a greenish film will be formed on the surface of the sample [13]. By coating gilded samples with PropS-SH and PropS-SH containing nano-particles and carrying out accelerated ageing by the dropping test, a discussion is possible on the effectiveness of this coating, either with nano-particles or not, against the corrosion process. This part is the section 2 of this thesis. Finally, a discussion about laser treatment aiming at the assessment of reversibility/re-applicability of the PropS-SH coating can be found in section 3 of this thesis. Because the protective layer loses its efficiency with time, it is necessary to find a way of removing the silane layer, before applying a new one on the “bare” patina. One request is to minimize the damages that a laser treatment would create on the patina. Therefore, different laser fluences (energy/surface) were applied on the sample surface during the treatment process in order to find the best range of fluence. In particular, we made a characterization of surfaces before and after removal of PropS-SH (applied on a naturally patinated surface, and subsequently aged by natural exposure) with laser methods. The laser removal treatment was done by the CNR Institute of Applied Physics “Nello Carrara” of Sesto Fiorentino in Florence. In all the three sections of the thesis, a range of non-destructive spectroscopic methods (Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), μ-Raman spectroscopy, X-Ray diffractometry (XRD)) were used for characterizing the corroded surfaces. AAS (Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy) was used to analyze the ageing solutions from the dropping test in sections 1 and 2.

SMARTDIAB: a communication and information technology approach for the intelligent monitoring, management and follow-up of type 1 diabetes patients

SMARTDIAB is a platform designed to support the monitoring, management, and treatment of patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), by combining state-of-the-art approaches in the fields of database (DB) technologies, communications, simulation algorithms, and data mining. SMARTDIAB consists mainly of two units: 1) the patient unit (PU); and 2) the patient management unit (PMU), which communicate with each other for data exchange. The PMU can be accessed by the PU through the internet using devices, such as PCs/laptops with direct internet access or mobile phones via a Wi-Fi/General Packet Radio Service access network. The PU consists of an insulin pump for subcutaneous insulin infusion to the patient and a continuous glucose measurement system. The aforementioned devices running a user-friendly application gather patient's related information and transmit it to the PMU. The PMU consists of a diabetes data management system (DDMS), a decision support system (DSS) that provides risk assessment for long-term diabetes complications, and an insulin infusion advisory system (IIAS), which reside on a Web server. The DDMS can be accessed from both medical personnel and patients, with appropriate security access rights and front-end interfaces. The DDMS, apart from being used for data storage/retrieval, provides also advanced tools for the intelligent processing of the patient's data, supporting the physician in decision making, regarding the patient's treatment. The IIAS is used to close the loop between the insulin pump and the continuous glucose monitoring system, by providing the pump with the appropriate insulin infusion rate in order to keep the patient's glucose levels within predefined limits. The pilot version of the SMARTDIAB has already been implemented, while the platform's evaluation in clinical environment is being in progress.