Option pricing in market models driven by telegraph processes with jumps

Esta tesis está dividida en dos partes: en la primera parte se presentan y estudian los procesos telegráficos, los procesos de Poisson con compensador telegráfico y los procesos telegráficos con saltos. El estudio presentado en esta primera parte incluye el cálculo de las distribuciones de cada proceso, las medias y varianzas, así como las funciones generadoras de momentos entre otras propiedades. Utilizando estas propiedades en la segunda parte se estudian los modelos de valoración de opciones basados en procesos telegráficos con saltos. En esta parte se da una descripción de cómo calcular las medidas neutrales al riesgo, se encuentra la condición de no arbitraje en este tipo de modelos y por último se calcula el precio de las opciones Europeas de compra y venta.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Applications of hydrodynamic and water quality models to the Sau and Boadella Reservoirs

Applicaciò d'un model de hydrodinàmica i de qualitat de l'aigua als embassaments de Sau i Boadella

Molecular quantum similarity in QSAR: applications in computer-aided molecular design

La present tesi està centrada en l'ús de la Teoria de Semblança Quàntica per a calcular descriptors moleculars. Aquests descriptors s'utilitzen com a paràmetres estructurals per a derivar correlacions entre l'estructura i la funció o activitat experimental per a un conjunt de compostos. Els estudis de Relacions Quantitatives Estructura-Activitat són d'especial interès per al disseny racional de molècules assistit per ordinador i, en particular, per al disseny de fàrmacs. Aquesta memòria consta de quatre parts diferenciades. En els dos primers blocs es revisen els fonaments de la teoria de semblança quàntica, així com l'aproximació topològica basada en la teoria de grafs. Ambdues teories es fan servir per a calcular els descriptors moleculars. En el segon bloc, s'ha de remarcar la programació i implementació de programari per a calcular els anomenats índexs topològics de semblança quàntica. La tercera secció detalla les bases de les Relacions Quantitatives Estructura-Activitat i, finalment, el darrer apartat recull els resultats d'aplicació obtinguts per a diferents sistemes biològics.

General concepts in meteorology and dynamics

The aim of this chapter is to give a general overview of the atmospheric circulation, highlighting the main concepts that are important for a basic understanding of meteorology and atmospheric dynamics relevant to atmospheric data assimilation.

The value of badger populations and control of tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales: A note

This note reports on the results of a choice experiment survey of 400 people in England and Wales, conducted to estimate the value that society places on changes to the size of the badger population. The study was undertaken in the context of the possible need to reduce the badger population by culling to help control bovine tuberculosis in cattle. The study found that people were concerned about the problem of bovine tuberculosis in cattle, which was reflected in their willingness to pay to control the disease, and gave a relatively low value to changes in the size of the badger population (within limits). However, people did not like the idea of a policy that intentionally killed large numbers of badgers and had a relatively very high willingness to pay not to have such a policy.

Investment in preventing and preparing for biological emergencies and disasters: social and economic costs of disasters versus costs of surveillance and response preparedness

Biological emergencies such as the appearance of an exotic transboundary or emerging disease can become disasters. The question that faces Veterinary Services in developing countries is how to balance resources dedicated to active insurance measures, such as border control, surveillance, working with the governments of developing countries, and investing in improving veterinary knowledge and tools, with passive measures, such as contingency funds and vaccine banks. There is strong evidence that the animal health situation in developed countries has improved and is relatively stable. In addition, through trade with other countries, developing countries are becoming part of the international animal health system, the status of which is improving, though with occasional setbacks. However, despite these improvements, the risk of a possible biological disaster still remains, and has increased in recent times because of the threat of bioterrorism. This paper suggests that a model that combines decision tree analysis with epidemiology is required to identify critical points in food chains that should be strengthened to reduce the risk of emergencies and prevent emergencies from becoming disasters.

Tropospheric ozone and winter wheat production in England and Wales: A note

Tropospheric ozone is an air pollutant thought to reduce crop yields across Europe. Much experimental scientific work has been completed or is currently underway to quantify yield effects at ambient ozone levels. In this research, we seek to directly evaluate whether such effects are observed at the farm level. This is done by intersecting a farm level panel dataset for winter wheat farms in England & Wales with information on ambient ozone, and estimating a production function with ozone as a fixed input. Panel data methods, Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) techniques and nested exogeneity tests are employed in the estimation. The results confirm a small, but nevertheless statistically significant negative effect of ambient ozone levels on wheat yields.

Prevalence and determinants of Cryptosporidium spp. infection in smallholder dairy cattle in Iringa and Tanga Regions of Tanzania

The prevalence of Cryptosporidium spp. infection in a cross-sectional study of dairy cattle, from two contrasting dairying regions in Tanzania, were determined by staining smears of faecal samples with the modified Ziehl-Neelsen technique. Of the 1126 faecal samples screened, 19.7% were positive for Cr\yptosporidium spp. The prevalence was lower in Tanga Region than in Iringa Region. The prevalence of affected farms was 20% in Tanga and 21 % in Iringa. In both regions, the probability of detecting Cryptosporidium oocysts in faeces varied with animal class, but these were not consistent in both regions. In Tanga Region, Cryptosporidium oocysts were significantly more likely to be found in the faeces of milking cows. In Iringa Region, the likelihood that cattle had Cryptosporidium-positive faeces declined with age, and milking cattle were significantly less likely to have Cryptosporidium-positive faeces. In this region, 7% of cattle were housed within the family house at night, and this was marginally associated with a higher likelihood that animals had Ctyptosporidium-positive faeces. Our study suggests that even though herd sizes are small, Cryptosporidium spp. are endemic on many Tanzanian smallholder dairy farms. These protozoa may impact on animal health and production, but also on human health, given the close associations between the cattle and their keepers. Further studies are required to assess these risks in more detail, and understand the epidemiology of Cryptosporidium spp. in this management system.

Copper complexes of new benzodioxotetraaza macrocycles with potential applications in nuclear medicine

Two novel benzodioxotetraaza macrocycles [2,9-dioxo-1,4,7,10-tetraazabicyclo[10.4.0]1,11-hexadeca-1(11),13,15-triene (H(2)L1) and 2,10-dioxo-1,4,8,11-tetraazabicyclo[11.4.0]1,12-heptadeca-1(12),14,16-triene (H(2)L2)] were synthesized by a [1 + 1] crablike cyclization. The protonation constants of both ligands were determined by H-1 NMR titration and by potentiometry at 25.0 degrees C in 0.10 M ionic strength in KNO3. The latter method was also used to ascertain the stability constants of their copper(II) complexes. These studies showed that the CuL1 complex has a much lower thermodynamic stability than the CuL2, and the H(2)L2 displays an excellent affinity for copper(II), due to the good fit of copper(II) into its cavity. The copper complexes of the novel ligands were characterized by electronic spectroscopy in solution and by crystal X-ray diffraction. These studies indicated that the copper center in the CuL1 complex adopts a square-pyramidal geometry with the four nitrogen atoms of the macrocycle forming the equatorial plane and a water molecule at axial position, and the copper in the CuL2 complex is square-planar. Several labeling conditions were tested, and only H(2)L2 could be labeled with Cu-67 efficiently (> 98%) in mild conditions (39 degrees C, 15 min) to provide a slightly hydrophilic radioligand (log D = -0.19 +/- 0.03 at pH 7.4). The in vitro stability was studied in the presence of different buffers or with an excess of diethylenetriamine-pentaethanoic acid. Very high stability was shown under these conditions for over 5 days. The incubation of the radiocopper complex in human serum showed 6% protein binding.