The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

A GIS analysis of coastal development and trends in bottlenose dolphin strandings in Charleston, SC: implications for coastal marine spatial planning

Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) inhabit estuarine waters near Charleston, South Carolina (SC) feeding, nursing and socializing. While in these waters, dolphins are exposed to multiple direct and indirect threats such as anthropogenic impacts (egs. harassment with boat traffic and entanglements in fishing gear) and environmental degradation. Bottlenose dolphins are protected under the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972. Over the years, the percentage of strandings in the estuaries has increased in South Carolina and, specifically, recent stranding data shows an increase in strandings occurring in Charleston, SC near areas of residential development. During the same timeframe, Charleston experienced a shift in human population towards the coastline. These two trends, rise in estuarine dolphin strandings and shift in human population, have raised questions on whether the increase in strandings is a result of more detectable strandings being reported, or a true increase in stranding events. Using GIS, the trends in strandings were compared to residential growth, boat permits, fishing permits, and dock permits in Charleston County from 1994-2009. A simple linear regression analysis was performed to determine if there were any significant relationships between strandings, boat permits, commercial fishing permits, and crabpot permits. The results of this analysis show the stranding trend moves toward Charleston Harbor and adjacent rivers over time which suggests the increase in strandings is related to the strandings becoming more detectable. The statistical analysis shows that the factors that cause human interaction strandings such as boats, commercial fishing, and crabpot line entanglements are not significantly related to strandings further supporting the hypothesis that the increase in strandings are due to increased observations on the water as human coastal population increases and are not a natural phenomenon. This study has local and potentially regional marine spatial planning implications to protect coastal natural resources, such as the bottlenose dolphin, while balancing coastal development.

Evaluation on propagation of common carp (Cyprinus carpio Lin.) with hormonal and natural stimuli

The success of breeding of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) using hormonal inducement and environmental stimuli was evaluated considering different sex ratios, and natural and artificial substrates. A total of 18 females (weighing 250 to 2200g) divided into 6 treatments were investigated. A successful spawning was observed in all the treatment groups, only. 66.66% female responded successfully to LHRH-A combined with dompheridone and 83.33% female in natural stimuli. Females induced with LHRH-A and dompheridone found prompt ovulation than that of natural stimulation. A significant variation (F=7.45, P<0.05) was found among the different treatment groups. The number of eggs released appear to depend on body weight (t=15.72, P<0.05), sex ratio (t=7.96, P<0.05) and percentage of ovulated females (t=5.34, P<0.05). Although environmentally stimulated females released more eggs than injected female (t=5.18, P<0.05) but their survival rate was similar (t=1.77, P<0.05). Comparison between the two approaches under the conditions of AIT hatchery shown that both are suitable for spawning induction in common carp. However, environmental stimulation is advantageous because of the less labor and lower cost required for ovulation.

Environmental and social impact monitoring of the Bujagali Hydropower Project (BHPP), Uganda Fisheries Component: monthly patterns in physico-chemical conditions and fish catch in the immediate vicinity of the Bujagali Hydropower construction site, 29th September - 28th October 2007

Following the commencement of construction works of a 250 MW hydropower plant at Dumbbell Island in the Upper Victoria Nile in September 2007, BEL requested NaFIRRI to conduct continuous monitoring of fish catches at two transects i.e. the immediate upstream transect of the project site (Kalange-Makwanzi) and the immediate downstream .transect (Buyala-Kikubamutwe). The routine monitoring surveys were designed to be conducted twice a week at each of the tWo transects. It was anticipated that major immediate impacts were to occur during construction, and these needed to be known by BEL as part of a mitigation strategy. For example, the construction of it cofferdam could be accompanied by rapid changes in water quality and quantity downstream of the construction. These changes in turn could affect the fish catch and would probably be missed by the quarterly monitoring already in place. Therefore, a major cbjective of the more regular and rapid monitoring was to discern immediate impacts of construction activities by focusing on selected water quality parameters (total suspended solids, water conductivity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH) and fish catch characteristics (total catch, catch rates and value of the catch)

Heat source modelling and natural ventilation efficiency

We compare natural ventilation flows established by a range of heat source distributions at floor level. Both evenly distributed and highly localised line and point source distributions are considered. We demonstrate that modelling the ventilation flow driven by a uniformly distributed heat source is equivalent to the flow driven by a large number of localised sources. A model is developed for the transient flow development in a room with a uniform heat distribution and is compared with existing models for localised buoyancy inputs. For large vent areas the flow driven by localised heat sources reaches a steady state more rapidly than the uniformly distributed case. For small vent areas there is little difference in the transient development times. Our transient model is then extended to consider the time taken to flush a neutrally buoyant pollutant from a naturally ventilated room. Again comparisons are drawn between uniform and localised (point and line) heat source geometries. It is demonstrated that for large vent areas a uniform heat distribution provides the fastest flushing. However, for smaller vent areas, localised heat sources produce the fastest flushing. These results are used to suggest a definition for the term 'natural ventilation efficiency', and a model is developed to estimate this efficiency as a function of the room and heat source geometries. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automatic construction and natural-language description of nonparametric regression models

Copyright © 2014, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (www.aaai.org). All rights reserved. This paper presents the beginnings of an automatic statistician, focusing on regression problems. Our system explores an open-ended space of statistical models to discover a good explanation of a data set, and then produces a detailed report with figures and natural- language text. Our approach treats unknown regression functions non- parametrically using Gaussian processes, which has two important consequences. First, Gaussian processes can model functions in terms of high-level properties (e.g. smoothness, trends, periodicity, changepoints). Taken together with the compositional structure of our language of models this allows us to automatically describe functions in simple terms. Second, the use of flexible nonparametric models and a rich language for composing them in an open-ended manner also results in state- of-the-art extrapolation performance evaluated over 13 real time series data sets from various domains.

Impact of environmental and innate factors on the food habit of Chinese perch Siniperca chuatsi (Basilewsky) (Percichthyidae)

Laboratory and field investigations were conducted to study the food habit of Chinese perch Siniperca chuatsi (Basilewsky) from first feeding through adult stage. Only fish larvae were consumed by Chinese perch larvae (2-21 days from hatching), and the presence of zooplankton did not have any significant effect on their survival rate. The ability of Chinese perch to feed on zooplankton is clearly limited by some innate factor. Instead of gill rakers, Chinese perch larvae have well-developed sharp teeth at the first feeding stage, and are well adapted to the piscivorous feeding habit unique to the larvae of Chinese perch, e.g. they bite and ingest the tails of other fish larvae. At the first feeding stage (2 days from hatching), daily rations were both very low, either in light or complete darkness. Although early-staged Chinese perch larvae (7-17 days from hatching) could feed in complete darkness, their daily rations were always significantly higher in light than in complete darkness. Late-staged Chinese perch larvae (21 days from hatching) were able to feed in complete darkness as well as in light, similar to the case of Chinese perch yearlings. Chinese perch yearlings (total length, 14-16 cm) consumed prey fish only and refused shrimp when visual cues were available (in light), but they consumed both prey when visual cues were not available (in complete darkness), suggesting that prey consumption by Chinese perch yearlings is affected by their sensory modality in predation. Both prey were found in the stomachs of similar-sized Chinese perch (total length, 14-32 cm) from their natural habitat, suggesting that shrimp are consumed by Chinese perch at night. Prey selection of Chinese perch with a length >38 cm, which consumed only fish in the field, appears to be based upon prey size instead of prey type. These results suggest that although environmental factors (e.g. light intensity) affect prey detection by Chinese perch, this fish is anatomically and behaviourally predisposed to prey on live fish from first feeding. This makes it a difficult fish to cultivate using conventional feeds.

Antioxidant enzyme activities of Microcystis aeruginosa in response to nonylphenols and degradation of nonylphenols by M-aeruginosa

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of chemical nonylphenols (NPs) on the antioxidant system of Microcystis aeruginosa strains. The degradation and sorption of NPs by M. aeruginosa were also evaluated. High concentrations of NPs (1 and 2 mg/l) were found to cause increases in superoxidase dismutase (SOD) and glutathione-S-transferase (GST) activities and in glutathione (GSH) levels. These results suggest that toxic stress manifested by elevated SOD and GST levels and GSH contents may be responsible for the toxicity of NPs to M. aeruginosa and that the algal cells could improve their antioxidant and detoxification ability through the enhancement of enzymatic and nonenzymatic prevention substances. The observed elevations in GSH levels and GST activities were relatively higher than those in SOD activities, indicating that GSH and GST contributed more in eliminating toxic effects than SOD. Low concentrations of NPs (0.05-0.2 mg/l) enhanced cell growth and decreased GST activity in algal cells of M. aeruginosa, suggesting that NPs may have acted as a protecting factor, such as an antioxidant. The larger portion of the NPs (> 60%) disappeared after 12 days of incubation, indicating the strong ability of M. aeruginosa to degrade the moderate persistent NP compounds. The sorption ratio of M. aeruginosa after a 12-day exposure to low nominal concentrations of NPs (0.02-0.5 mg/l) was relatively high (> 30%). The fact that M. aeruginosa effectively resisted the toxic effects of NPs and strongly degraded these pollutants indicate that M. aeruginosa cells have a strong ability to adapt to variations in environmental conditions and that low and moderate concentrations of organic compounds may favor its survival. Further studies are needed to provide detailed information on the fate of persistent organic pollutants and the survival of algae and to determine the possible role of organic pollutants in the occurrence of water blooms in eutrophic lakes.

Primary cultured cells as sensitive in vitro model for assessment of toxicants-comparison to hepatocytes and gill epithelia

In an effort to develop cultured cell models for toxicity screening and environmental biomonitoring, we compared primary cultured gill epithelia and hepatocytes from freshwater tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) to assess their sensitivity to AhR agonist toxicants. Epithelia were cultured on permeable supports (terephthalate membranes, "filters") and bathed on the apical with waterborne toxicants (pseudo in vivo asymmetrical culture conditions). Hepatocytes were cultured in multi-well plates and exposed to toxicants in culture medium. Cytochrome P4501A (measured as 7-Ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase, EROD) was selected as a biomarker. For cultured gill epithelia, the integrity of the epithelia remained unchanged on exposure to model toxicants, such as 1,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), benzo(a)pyrene B[a]P, polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) mixture (Aroclor 1254), and polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) mixture (DE71). A good concentration-dependent response of EROD activity was clearly observed in both cultured gill epithelia and hepatocytes. The time-course response of EROD was measured as early as 3 h, and was maximal after 6 h of exposure to TCDD, B [alp and Aroclor 1254. The estimated 6 h EC50 for TCDD, B [a]P, and Aroclor 1254 was 1.2x10(-9), 5.7x10(-8) and 6.6x10(-6) M. For the cultured hepatocytes, time-course study showed that a significant induction of EROD took place at 18 h, and the maximal induction of EROD was observed at 24 h after exposure. The estimated 24 It EC50 for TCDD, B[a]P, and Aroclor 1254 was 1.4x10(-9), 8.1x10(-8) and 7.3x10(-6) M. There was no induction or inhibition of EROD in DE71 exposure to both gill epithelia and hepatocytes. The results show that cultured gill epithelia more rapidly induce EROD and are slightly more sensitive than cultured hepatocytes, and could be used as a rapid and sensitive tool for screening chemicals and monitoring environmental AhR agonist toxicants. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Response of growth and fatty acid compositions of Nannochloropsis sp to environmental factors under elevated CO2 concentration

Nannochloropsis sp. was grown with different levels of nitrate, phosphate, salinity and temperature with CO2 at 2,800 mu l l(-1). Increased levels of NaNO3 and KH2PO4 raised protein and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) contents but decreased carbohydrate, total lipid and total fatty acids (TFA) contents. Nannochloropsis sp. grew well at salinities from 22 to 49 g l(-1), and lowering salinity enhanced TFA and PUFAs contents. TFA contents increased with the increasing temperature but PUFAs contents decreased. The highest eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA, 20:5 omega 3) content based on the dry mass was above 3% under low N (150 mu M NaNO3) or high N (3000 mu M NaNO3) condition. Excessive nitrate, low salinity and temperature are thus favorable factors for improving EPA yields in Nannochloropsis sp.