A Fuzzy ARTMAP Nonparametric Probability Estimator For Nonstationary Pattern Recognition Problem

An incremental, nonparametric probability estimation procedure using the fuzzy ARTMAP neural network is introduced. In slow-learning mode, fuzzy ARTMAP searches for patterns of data on which to build ever more accurate estimates. In max-nodes mode, the network initially learns a fixed number of categories, and weights are then adjusted gradually.

Financial modelling with 2-EPT probability density functions

The class of all Exponential-Polynomial-Trigonometric (EPT) functions is classical and equal to the Euler-d’Alembert class of solutions of linear differential equations with constant coefficients. The class of non-negative EPT functions defined on [0;1) was discussed in Hanzon and Holland (2010) of which EPT probability density functions are an important subclass. EPT functions can be represented as ceAxb, where A is a square matrix, b a column vector and c a row vector where the triple (A; b; c) is the minimal realization of the EPT function. The minimal triple is only unique up to a basis transformation. Here the class of 2-EPT probability density functions on R is defined and shown to be closed under a variety of operations. The class is also generalised to include mixtures with the pointmass at zero. This class coincides with the class of probability density functions with rational characteristic functions. It is illustrated that the Variance Gamma density is a 2-EPT density under a parameter restriction. A discrete 2-EPT process is a process which has stochastically independent 2-EPT random variables as increments. It is shown that the distribution of the minimum and maximum of such a process is an EPT density mixed with a pointmass at zero. The Laplace Transform of these distributions correspond to the discrete time Wiener-Hopf factors of the discrete time 2-EPT process. A distribution of daily log-returns, observed over the period 1931-2011 from a prominent US index, is approximated with a 2-EPT density function. Without the non-negativity condition, it is illustrated how this problem is transformed into a discrete time rational approximation problem. The rational approximation software RARL2 is used to carry out this approximation. The non-negativity constraint is then imposed via a convex optimisation procedure after the unconstrained approximation. Sufficient and necessary conditions are derived to characterise infinitely divisible EPT and 2-EPT functions. Infinitely divisible 2-EPT density functions generate 2-EPT Lévy processes. An assets log returns can be modelled as a 2-EPT Lévy process. Closed form pricing formulae are then derived for European Options with specific times to maturity. Formulae for discretely monitored Lookback Options and 2-Period Bermudan Options are also provided. Certain Greeks, including Delta and Gamma, of these options are also computed analytically. MATLAB scripts are provided for calculations involving 2-EPT functions. Numerical option pricing examples illustrate the effectiveness of the 2-EPT approach to financial modelling.

Characterisation of bacteriophage-host interactions in Lactococcus lactis

Lactococcus lactis is used extensively world-wide for the production of fermented dairy products. Bacteriophages (phages) infecting L. lactis can result in slow or incomplete fermentations, or may even cause total fermentation failure. Therefore, bacteriophages disrupting L. lactis fermentation are of economic concern. This thesis employed a multifaceted approach to investigate various molecular aspects of phage-host interaction in L. lactis. The genome sequence of an Irish dairy starter strain, the prophage-cured L. lactis subsp. cremoris UC509.9, was studied. The 2,250,427 bp circular chromosome represents the smallest among its sequenced lactococcal equivalents. The genome displays clear genetic adaptation to the dairy niche in the form of extensive reductive evolution. Gene prediction identified 2066 protein-encoding genes, including 104 which showed significant homology to transposase-specifying genes. Over 9 % of the identified genes appear to be inactivated through stop codons or frame shift mutations. Many pseudogenes were found in genes that are assigned to carbohydrate and amino acid transport and metabolism orthologous groups, reflecting L. lactis UC509.9’s adaptation to the lactose and casein-rich dairy environment. Sequence analysis of the eight plasmids of L. lactis revealed extensive adaptation to the dairy environment. Key industrial phenotypes were mapped and novel lactococcal plasmid-associated genes highlighted. In addition to chromosomally-encoded bacteriophage resistance systems, six functional such systems were identified, including two abortive infection systems, AbiB and AbiD1, explaining the observed phage resistance of L. lactis UC509.9 Molecular analysis suggests that the constitutive expression of AbiB is not lethal to cells, suggesting the protein is expressed in an un/inactivated form. Analysis of 936 species phage sk1-escape mutants of AbiB revealed that all such mutants harbour mutations in orf6, which encodes the major capsid protein. Results suggest that the major capsid protein is required for activation of the AbiB system, although this requires furrther investigations. Temporal transcriptomes of L. lactis UC509.9 undergoing lytic infection with either one of two distinct bacteriophages, Tuc2009 and c2, was determined and compared to the transcriptome of uninfected UC509.9 cells. Whole genome microarrays performed at various time-points post-infection demonstrated a rather modest impact on host transcription. Alterations in the UC509.9 transcriptome during lytic infection appear phage-specific, with a relatively small number of differentially transcribed genes shared between infection with either Tuc2009 or c2. Transcriptional profiles of both bacteriophages during lytic infection was shown to generally correlate with previous studies and allowed the confirmation of previously predicted promoter sequences. Bioinformatic analysis of genomic regions encoding the presumed cell wall polysaccharide (CW PS) biosynthesis gene cluster of several strains of L. lactis was performed. Results demonstrate the presence of three dominant genetic types of this gene cluster, termed type A, B and C. These regions were used for the development of a multiplex PCR to identify CW PS genotype of various lactococcal strains. Analysis of 936 species phage receptor binding protein phylogeny (RBP) and CW PS genotype revealed an apparent correlation between RBP phylogeny and CW PS type, thereby providing a partial explanation for the observed narrow host range of 936 phages. Further analysis of the genetic locus encompassing the presumed CW PS biosynthesis operon of eight strains identified as belonging to the CW PS C (geno)type, revealed the presence of a variable region among the examined strains. The obtained comparative analysis allowed for the identification of five subgroups of the C type, named C1 to C5. We purified an acidic polysaccharide from the cell wall of L. lactis 3107 (C2 subtype) and confirmed that it is structurally different from the CW PS of the C1 subtype L. lactis MG1363. Combinations of genes from the variable region of C2 subtype were amplified from L. lactis 3107 and introduced into a mutant of the C1 subtype L. lactis NZ9000 (a direct derivative of MG1363) deficient in CW PS biosynthesis. The resulting recombinant mutant synthesized a CW PS with a composition characteristic for that of the C2 subtype L. lactis 3107 and not the wildtype C1 L. lactis NZ9000. The recombinant mutant exhibited a changed phage resistance/sensitivity profile consistent with that of L. lactis 3107, which unambiguously demonstrated that L. lactis 3107 CW PS is the host cell surface receptor of two bacteriophages belonging to the P335 species as well as phages that are member of the 936 species. The research presented in this thesis has significantly advanced our understanding of L. lactis bacteriophage-host interactions in several ways. Firstly, the examination of plasmidencoded bacteriophage resistance systems has allowed inferences to be made regarding the mode of action of AbiB, thereby providing a platform for further elucidation of the molecular trigger of this system. Secondly, the phage infection transcriptome data presented, in addition to previous work, has made L. lactis a model organism in terms of transcriptomic studies of bacteriophage-host interactions. And finally, the research described in this thesis has for the first time explicitly revealed the nature of a carbohydrate bacteriophage receptor in L. lactis, while also providing a logical explanation for the observed narrow host ranges exhibited by 936 and P335 phages. Future research in discerning the structures of other L. lactis CW PS, combined with the determination of the molecular interplay between receptor binding proteins of these phages and CW PS will allow an in depth understanding of the mechanism by which the most prevalent lactococcal phages identify and adsorb to their specific host.

Scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions fingerprints the rainfall generation mechanism

© 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.The cross-scale probabilistic structure of rainfall intensity records collected over time scales ranging from hours to decades at sites dominated by both convective and frontal systems is investigated. Across these sites, intermittency build-up from slow to fast time-scales is analyzed in terms of heavy tailed and asymmetric signatures in the scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions (pdfs). The analysis demonstrates that rainfall records dominated by convective storms develop heavier-Tailed power law pdfs toward finer scales when compared with their frontal systems counterpart. Also, a concomitant marked asymmetry build-up emerges at such finer time scales. A scale-dependent probabilistic description of such fat tails and asymmetry appearance is proposed based on a modified q-Gaussian model, able to describe the cross-scale rainfall pdfs in terms of the nonextensivity parameter q, a lacunarity (intermittency) correction and a tail asymmetry coefficient, linked to the rainfall generation mechanism.

Hand hygiene noncompliance and the cost of hospital-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection.

BACKGROUND: Hand hygiene noncompliance is a major cause of nosocomial infection. Nosocomial infection cost data exist, but the effect of hand hygiene noncompliance is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To estimate methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)-related cost of an incident of hand hygiene noncompliance by a healthcare worker during patient care. DESIGN: Two models were created to simulate sequential patient contacts by a hand hygiene-noncompliant healthcare worker. Model 1 involved encounters with patients of unknown MRSA status. Model 2 involved an encounter with an MRSA-colonized patient followed by an encounter with a patient of unknown MRSA status. The probability of new MRSA infection for the second patient was calculated using published data. A simulation of 1 million noncompliant events was performed. Total costs of resulting infections were aggregated and amortized over all events. SETTING: Duke University Medical Center, a 750-bed tertiary medical center in Durham, North Carolina. RESULTS: Model 1 was associated with 42 MRSA infections (infection rate, 0.0042%). Mean infection cost was $47,092 (95% confidence interval [CI], $26,040-$68,146); mean cost per noncompliant event was $1.98 (95% CI, $0.91-$3.04). Model 2 was associated with 980 MRSA infections (0.098%). Mean infection cost was $53,598 (95% CI, $50,098-$57,097); mean cost per noncompliant event was $52.53 (95% CI, $47.73-$57.32). A 200-bed hospital incurs $1,779,283 in annual MRSA infection-related expenses attributable to hand hygiene noncompliance. A 1.0% increase in hand hygiene compliance resulted in annual savings of $39,650 to a 200-bed hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Hand hygiene noncompliance is associated with significant attributable hospital costs. Minimal improvements in compliance lead to substantial savings.

Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change.

Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.

Accuracy of proactive case finding for mental disorders by community informants in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Accurate detection of persons in need of mental healthcare is crucial to reduce the treatment gap between psychiatric burden and service use in low- and middle-income (LAMI) countries. AIMS: To evaluate the accuracy of a community-based proactive case-finding strategy (Community Informant Detection Tool, CIDT), involving pictorial vignettes, designed to initiate pathways for mental health treatment in primary care settings. METHOD: Community informants using the CIDT identified screen positive (n = 110) and negative persons (n = 85). Participants were then administered the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). RESULTS: The CIDT has a positive predictive value of 0.64 (0.68 for adults only) and a negative predictive value of 0.93 (0.91 for adults only). CONCLUSIONS: The CIDT has promising detection properties for psychiatric caseness. Further research should investigate its potential to increase demand for, and access to, mental health services.

Alternativas técnicas para el almacenamiento de calabacitas Butternut o coreanas (Cucurbita moschata Duch.)

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Climate, plankton and cod

While a few North Atlantic cod stocks are stable, none have increased and many have declined in recent years. Although overfishing is the main cause of most observed declines, this study shows that in some regions, climate by its influence on plankton may exert a strong control on cod stocks, complicating the management of this species that often assumes a constant carrying capacity. First, we investigate the likely drivers of changes in the cod stock in the North Sea by evaluating the potential relationships between climate, plankton and cod. We do this by deriving a Plankton Index that reflects the quality and quantity of plankton food available for larval cod. We show that this Plankton Index explains 46.24% of the total variance in cod recruitment and 68.89% of the variance in total cod biomass. Because the effects of climate act predominantly through plankton during the larval stage of cod development, our results indicate a pronounced sensitivity of cod stocks to climate at the warmer, southern edge of their distribution, for example in the North Sea. Our analyses also reveal for the first time, that at a large basin scale, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus is associated with a high probability of cod occurrence, whereas the genus Pseudocalanus appears less important. Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) generally considers the effect of fishing on the ecosystem and not the effect of climate-induced changes in the ecosystem state for the living resources. These results suggest that EBFM must consider the position of a stock within its ecological niche, the direct effects of climate and the influence of climate on the trophodynamics of the ecosystem.

Shark personalities? Repeatability of social network traits in a widely distributed predatory fish. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology, 68, 1995-2003.

Interest in animal personalities has generated a burgeoning literature on repeatability in individual traits such as boldness or exploration through time or across different contexts. Yet, repeatability can be influenced by the interactive social strategies of individuals, for example, consistent inter-individual variation in aggression is well documented. Previous work has largely focused on the social aspects of repeatability in animal behaviour by testing individuals in dyadic pairings. Under natural conditions, individuals interact in a heterogeneous polyadic network. However, the extent to which there is repeatability of social traits at this higher order network level remains unknown. Here, we provide the first empirical evidence of consistent and repeatable animal social networks. Using a model species of shark, a taxonomic group in which repeatability in behaviour has yet to be described, we repeatedly quantified the social networks of ten independent shark groups across different habitats, testing repeatability in individual network position under changing environments. To understand better the mechanisms behind repeatable social behaviour, we also explored the coupling between individual preferences for specific group sizes and social network position. We quantify repeatability in sharks by demonstrating that despite changes in aggregation measured at the group level, the social network position of individuals is consistent across treatments. Group size preferences were found to influence the social network position of individuals in small groups but less so for larger groups suggesting network structure, and thus, repeatability was driven by social preference over aggregation tendency.

Consequences of heat stress on reproduction of cattle

Heat stress represents one of the major environmental factors that adversely affect the reproductive performance of cattle. In this paper the behavioral adjustments, physical mechanisms and physiological responses to heat loss are described; bos indicus adaptive advantages with respect to bos Taurus, pathophysiology of heat stress and heat stress effects in animal reproduction, both the male and the female.

Tephra-linked peat humification records from Irish ombrotrophic bogs question nature of solar forcing at 850 cal. yr BC.

This paper investigates evidence for palaeoclimatic changes during the period ca. 1500-500 cal. yr BC through peat humification studies on seven Irish ombrotrophic bogs. The sites are well-correlated by the identification of three mid-first millennium BC tephras, which enable the humification records at specific points in time to be directly compared. Phases of temporarily increased wetness are suggested at ca. 1300-1250 cal. yr BC, ca. 1150-1050 cal. yr BC, ca. 940 cal. yr BC and ca. 740 cal. yr BC. The last of these is confirmed to be synchronous at five sites, suggesting external forcing on a regional scale. The timing of this wet-shift is constrained by two closely dated tephras and is demonstrated to be distinct from the widely reported changes to cooler/wetter conditions associated with a solar minimum at 850-760 cal. yr BC, at which time the Irish sites appear instead to experience drier conditions. The results suggest the possibility of either non-uniform responses to solar forcing in northwest Europe at this time, or the existence of unrelated climate events in the early first millennium BC. The findings caution against the correlation of loosely dated palaeoclimate data if the effects of forcing mechanisms are to be understood.

Prograded Holocene beach-ridges with superimposed dunes in north-east Ireland: mechanisms and timescales of fine and coarse beach sediment decoupling and deposition

Two depositional models to account for Holocene gravel-dominated beach ridges covered by dunes, occurring on the northern coast of Ireland, are considered in the light of infrared-stimulated luminescence ages of sand units within beach ridges, and 14C ages from organic horizons in dunes. A new chronostratigraphy obtained from prograded beach ridges with covering dunes at Murlough, north-east Ireland, supports a model of mesoscale alternating sediment decoupling (ASD) on the upper beach, rather than macroscale sequential sediment sourcing to account for prograded beach ridges and covering dunes. The ASD model specifies storm or fair-weather sand beach ridges forming at high-tide positions (on an annual basis at minimum), which acted as deflationary sources for landward foredune development. Only a limited number of such late-Holocene beach ridges survive in the observed prograded series. Beach ridges only survive when capped by storm-generated gravel beaches that are deposited on a mesoscale time spacing of 50–130 years. The morphodynamic shift from a dissipative beach face for dune formation to a reflective beach face for gravel capping appears to be controlled by the beach sand volume falling to a level where reflective conditions can prevail. Sediment volume entering the beach is thought to have fluctuated as a function of a forced regression associated with the falling sea level from the mid-Holocene highstand (ca. 6000 cal. yr BP) identified in north-east Ireland. The prograded beach ridges dated at ca. 3000 to 2000 cal. yr BP indicate that the Holocene highstand’s regressive phase may have lasted longer than previously specified.