Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change.

This paper describes the development and first results of the “Community Integrated Assessment System” (CIAS), a unique multi-institutional modular and flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Key to this development is the supporting software infrastructure, SoftIAM. Through it, CIAS is distributed between the community of institutions which has each contributed modules to the CIAS system. At the heart of SoftIAM is the Bespoke Framework Generator (BFG) which enables flexibility in the assembly and composition of individual modules from a pool to form coupled models within CIAS, and flexibility in their deployment onto the available software and hardware resources. Such flexibility greatly enhances modellers’ ability to re-configure the CIAS coupled models to answer different questions, thus tracking evolving policy needs. It also allows rigorous testing of the robustness of IA modelling results to the use of different component modules representing the same processes (for example, the economy). Such processes are often modelled in very different ways, using different paradigms, at the participating institutions. An illustrative application to the study of the relationship between the economy and the earth’s climate system is provided.

Ex Vivo Construction of an Artificial Ocular Surface by Combination of Corneal Limbal Epithelial Cells and a Compressed Collagen Scaffold Containing Keratocytes

We have investigated the use of a laminin coated compressed collagen gel containing corneal fibroblasts (keratocytes) as a novel scaffold to support the growth of corneal limbal epithelial stem cells. The growth of limbal epithelial cells was compared between compressed collagen gel and a clinically proven conventional substrate, denuded amniotic membrane. Following compression of the collagen gel, encapsulated keratocytes remained viable and scanning electron microscopy showed that fibres within the compressed gel were dense, homogeneous and similar in structure to those within denuded amniotic membrane. Limbal epithelial cells were successfully expanded upon the compressed collagen resulting in stratified layers of cells containing desmosome and hemidesmosome structures. The resulting corneal constructs of both the groups shared a high degree of transparency, cell morphology and cell stratification. Similar protein expression profiles for cytokeratin 3 and cytokeratin 14 and no significant difference in cytokeratin 12 mRNA expression levels by real time PCR were also observed. This study provides the first line of evidence that a laminin coated compressed collagen gel containing keratocytes can adequately support limbal epithelial cell expansion, stratification and differentiation to a degree that is comparable to the leading conventional scaffold, denuded amniotic membrane.

Combination therapy: opportunities and challenges for polymer-drug conjugates as anticancer nanomedicines.

The discovery of new molecular targets and the subsequent development of novel anticancer agents are opening new possibilities for drug combination therapy as anticancer treatment. Polymer-drug conjugates are well established for the delivery of a single therapeutic agent, but only in very recent years their use has been extended to the delivery of multi-agent therapy. These early studies revealed the therapeutic potential of this application but raised new challenges (namely, drug loading and drugs ratio, characterisation, and development of suitable carriers) that need to be addressed for a successful optimisation of the system towards clinical applications.

Polymer-drug conjugates for combination anticancer therapy: investigating the mechanism of action.

We developed a family of polymer-drug conjugates carrying the combination of the anticancer agent epirubicin (EPI) and nitric oxide (NO). EPI-PEG-(NO)8, carrying the highest content of NO, displayed greater activity in Caco-2 cells while it decreased toxicity against endothelium cells and cardiomyocytes with respect to free EPI. FACS and confocal microscopy confirmed conjugates internalization. Light scattering showed formation of micelle whose size correlated with internalization rate. EPI-PEG-(NO)8 showed increased bioavailability in mice compared to free EPI.

Direct estimates of emissions from the megacity of Lagos

We report here top-down emissions estimates for an African megacity. A boundary layer circumnavigation of Lagos, Nigeria was completed using the FAAM BAe146 aircraft as part of the AMMA project. These observations together with an inferred boundary layer height allow the flux of pollutants to be calculated. Extrapolation gives annual emissions for CO, NOx, and VOCs of 1.44 Tg yr−1, 0.03 Tg yr−1 and 0.37 Tg yr−1 respectively with uncertainties of +250/−60%. These inferred emissions are consistent with bottom-up estimates for other developing megacities and are attributed to the evaporation of fuels, mobile combustion and natural gas emissions.

A covariate adjustment for zero-truncated approaches to estimating the size of hidden and elusive populations

In this paper we consider the estimation of population size from onesource capture–recapture data, that is, a list in which individuals can potentially be found repeatedly and where the question is how many individuals are missed by the list. As a typical example, we provide data from a drug user study in Bangkok from 2001 where the list consists of drug users who repeatedly contact treatment institutions. Drug users with 1, 2, 3, . . . contacts occur, but drug users with zero contacts are not present, requiring the size of this group to be estimated. Statistically, these data can be considered as stemming from a zero-truncated count distribution.We revisit an estimator for the population size suggested by Zelterman that is known to be robust under potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a locally truncated Poisson likelihood which is equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This result allows the extension of the Zelterman estimator by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates. We also review an estimator proposed by Chao and explain why we are not able to obtain similar results for this estimator. The Zelterman estimator is applied in two case studies, the first a drug user study from Bangkok, the second an illegal immigrant study in the Netherlands. Our results suggest the new estimator should be used, in particular, if substantial unobserved heterogeneity is present.

Bridging the gaps between agricultural policy, land-use and biodiversity

The fate of biodiversity is intimately linked to agricultural development. Policy reform is an important driver of changes in agricultural land-use, but there is considerable spatial variation in response to policy and its potential impact on biodiversity. We review the links between policy, land-use and biodiversity and advocate a more integrated approach. Ecologists need to recognize that wildlife-friendly farming is not the only land-use strategy that can be used to conserve biodiversity and to research alternative options such as land sparing. There is also a need for social scientists and ecologists to bring their approaches together, so that land-use change and its consequences can be investigated in a more holistic way.

Seroprevalence estimation and risk factors for A. marginale on smallholder dairy farms in Tanzania

A cross-sectional serological survey of A. marginale was conducted on 200 randomly selected smallholder farms in each of the Tanga and Iringa Regions of Tanzania between January and April 1999. Sera, from dairy cattle of all ages, sexes and breeds were tested for antibodies against A. marginale using an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Antibodies to A. marginale were present in cattle throughout the study areas and the overall prevalence was 20% for Tanga and 37% for Iringa. The forces of infection based on the age seroprevalence profile were estimated at 8 for Tanga and 15 for Iringa per 100 cattle years-risk, respectively. In both regions, seroprevalence increased with age (β = 0.01 and 0.017 per year of age, p < 0.005, in Tanga and Iringa, respectively). Older animals in Iringa were significantly and negatively associated with decreased seropositivity (β = −0.002, p = 0.0029). Further results of logistic regression models reveal that geographic location of animals in Tanga was associated with seropositivity (odds ratio (OR) = 2.94, p = 0.005, for Tanga Rural and OR = 2.38, p = 0.066, for Muheza). Animals acquired as a gift in Iringa had higher odds for seropositivity than brought-in cattle (OR = 2.44, p = 0.005). Our study has identified and quantified some key risk factors that can guide planners devising disease control strategies.

Seroprevalence estimation and risk factors for A-marginale on smallholder dairy farms in Tanzania

A cross-sectional serological survey of A. marginale was conducted on 200 randomly selected smallholder farms in each of the Tanga and Iringa Regions of Tanzania between January and April 1999. Sera, from dairy cattle of all ages, sexes and breeds were tested for antibodies against A. marginale using an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Antibodies to A. marginale were present in cattle throughout the study areas and the overall prevalence was 20% for Tanga and 37% for Iringa. The forces of infection based on the age seroprevalence profile were estimated at 8 for Tanga and 15 for Iringa per 100 cattle years-risk, respectively. In both regions, seroprevalence increased with age (beta = 0.01 and 0.017 per year of age, p < 0.005, in Tanga and Iringa, respectively). Older animals in Iringa were significantly and negatively associated with decreased seropositivity (beta = -0.002, p = 0.0029). Further results of logistic regression models reveal that geographic location of animals in Tanga was associated with seropositivity (odds ratio (OR) = 2.94, p = 0.005, for Tanga Rural and OR = 2.38, p = 0.066, for Muheza). Animals acquired as a gift in Iringa had higher odds for seropositivity than brought-in cattle (OR = 2.44, p = 0.005). Our study has identified and quantified some key risk factors that can guide planners devising disease control strategies.

On the regulation of populations of mammals, birds, fish, and insects

A key unresolved question in population ecology concerns the relationship between a population's size and its growth rate. We estimated this relationship for 1780 time series of mammals, birds, fish, and insects. We found that rates of population growth are high at low population densities but, contrary to previous predictions, decline rapidly with increasing population size and then flatten out, for all four taxa. This produces a strongly concave relationship between a population's growth rate and its size. These findings have fundamental implications for our understanding of animals' lives, suggesting in particular that many animals in these taxa will be found living at densities above the carrying capacity of their environments.

Observation of carbonyl oxygen-pi interaction in a metal complex

X-ray crystallography shows that [Ag2L2(H2O)(2)](BF4)(2) where L is a 1:1 condensate of 1,2-diphenylethane-1,2-dione and 2-(2-aminoethyl pyridine), contains an Ag(I)-Ag(I) bond of length 2.979(2) angstrom and an angular, intraligand interaction of the keto O with the pi cloud of the pyridine moiety (O-pyridine centroid = 3.12 angstrom). Model MP2/6-311++G(d,p) calculations indicate that the observed lone pair-pi type interaction is stabilising and not merely a tolerated short contact. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.