Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Genetic population data of 12 STR loci of the PowerPlex (R) Y system in the state of Sao Paulo population (Southeast of Brazil)

Allele frequency distributions and population data for 12 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) included in the PowerPlex (R) Y Systems (Promega) were obtained for a sample of 200 healthy unrelated males living in S (a) over tildeo Paulo State (Southeast of Brazil). A total of 192 haplotypes were identified, of which 184 were unique and 8 were found in 2 individuals. The average gene diversity of the 12 Y-STR was 0.6746 and the haplotype diversity was 0.9996. Pairwise analysis confirmed that our population is more similar with the Italy, North Portugal and Spain, being more distant of the Japan. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

3D-Pharmacophore mapping of thymidine-based inhibitors of TMPK as potential antituberculosis agents

Tuberculosis (TB) is the primary cause of mortality among infectious diseases. Mycobacterium tuberculosis monophosphate kinase (TMPKmt) is essential to DNA replication. Thus, this enzyme represents a promising target for developing new drugs against TB. In the present study, the receptor-independent, RI, 4D-QSAR method has been used to develop QSAR models and corresponding 3D-pharmacophores for a set of 81 thymidine analogues, and two corresponding subsets, reported as inhibitors of TMPKmt. The resulting optimized models are not only statistically significant with r (2) ranging from 0.83 to 0.92 and q (2) from 0.78 to 0.88, but also are robustly predictive based on test set predictions. The most and the least potent inhibitors in their respective postulated active conformations, derived from each of the models, were docked in the active site of the TMPKmt crystal structure. There is a solid consistency between the 3D-pharmacophore sites defined by the QSAR models and interactions with binding site residues. Moreover, the QSAR models provide insights regarding a probable mechanism of action of the analogues.

Prospective ultramorphological characterization of human hair by optical coherence tomography

Background/purpose The continuous advancement in cosmetic science has led to an increasing demand for the development of non-invasive, reliable scientific techniques directed toward claim substantiation, which is of utmost relevance, to obtain data regarding the efficacy and safety of cosmetic products. Methods In this work, we used the optical coherence tomography (OCT) technique to produce in vitro transversal section-images of human hair. We also compared the OCT signal before and after chemical treatment with an 18% w/w ammonium thioglycolate solution. Results The mean diameter of the medulla was 29 +/- 7 mu m and the hair diameter was 122 +/- 16 mu m in our samples of standard Afro-ethnic hair. A three-dimensional (3D) image was constructed starting from 601 cross-sectional images (slices). Each slice was taken in steps of 6.0 mu m at eight frames per second, and the entire 3D image was constructed in 60 s. Conclusion It was possible to identify, using the A-scan protocol, the principal structures: the cuticle, cortex and medulla. After chemical treatment, it was not possible to identify the main structures of hair fiber due to index matching promoted by deleterious action of the chemical agent.

Rational Design and 3D-Pharmacophore Mapping of 5 `-Thiourea-Substituted alpha-Thymidine Analogues as Mycobacterial TMPK Inhibitors

Thymidine monophosphate kinase (TMPK) has emerged as an attractive target for developing inhibitors of Mycobacterium tuberculosis growth. In this study the receptor-independent (RI) 4D-QSAR formalism has been used to develop QSAR models and corresponding 3D-pharmacophores for a set of 5`-thiourea-substituted alpha-thymidine inhibitors. Models were developed for the entire training set and for a subset of the training set consisting of the most potent inhibitors. The optimized (RI) 4D-QSAR models are statistically significant (r(2) = 0.90, q(2) = 0.83 entire set, r(2) = 0.86, q(2) = 0.80 high potency subset) and also possess good predictivity based on test set predictions. The most and least potent inhibitors, in their respective postulated active conformations derived from the models, were docked in the active site of the TMPK crystallographic structure. There is a solid consistency between the 3D-pharmacophore sites defined by the QSAR models and interactions with binding site residues. This model identifies new regions of the inhibitors that contain pharmacophore sites, such as the sugar-pyrimidine ring structure and the region of the 5`-arylthiourea moiety. These new regions of the ligands can be further explored and possibly exploited to identify new, novel, and, perhaps, better antituberculosis inhibitors of TMPKmt. Furthermore, the 3D-pharmacophores defined by these models can be used as a starting point for future receptor-dependent antituberculosis drug design as well as to elucidate candidate sites for substituent addition to optimize ADMET properties of analog inhibitors.

Brazilian Network of Food Data Systems and LATINFOODS Regional Technical Compilation Committee: Food composition activities (2006-2009)

The Brazilian Network of Food Data Systems (BRASILFOODS) has been keeping the Brazilian Food Composition Database-USP (TBCA-USP) (http://www.fcf.usp.br/tabela) since 1998. Besides the constant compilation, analysis and update work in the database, the network tries to innovate through the introduction of food information that may contribute to decrease the risk for non-transmissible chronic diseases, such as the profile of carbohydrates and flavonoids in foods. In 2008, data on carbohydrates, individually analyzed, of 112 foods, and 41 data related to the glycemic response produced by foods widely consumed in the country were included in the TBCA-USP. Data (773) about the different flavonoid subclasses of 197 Brazilian foods were compiled and the quality of each data was evaluated according to the USDAs data quality evaluation system. In 2007, BRASILFOODS/USP and INFOODS/FAO organized the 7th International Food Data Conference ""Food Composition and Biodiversity"". This conference was a unique opportunity for interaction between renowned researchers and participants from several countries and it allowed the discussion of aspects that may improve the food composition area. During the period, the LATINFOODS Regional Technical Compilation Committee and BRASILFOODS disseminated to Latin America the Form and Manual for Data Compilation, version 2009, ministered a Food Composition Data Compilation course and developed many activities related to data production and compilation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inhibition of immune complex-mediated neutrophil oxidative metabolism: A pharmacophore model for 3-phenylcoumarin derivatives using GRIND-based 3D-QSAR and 2D-QSAR procedures

In this study, twenty hydroxylated and acetoxylated 3-phenylcoumarin derivatives were evaluated as inhibitors of immune complex-stimulated neutrophil oxidative metabolism and possible modulators of the inflammatory tissue damage found in type III hypersensitivity reactions. By using lucigenin- and luminol-enhanced chemiluminescence assays (CL-luc and CL-lum, respectively), we found that the 6,7-dihydroxylated and 6,7-diacetoxylated 3-phenylcoumarin derivatives were the most effective inhibitors. Different structural features of the other compounds determined CL-luc and/or CL-lum inhibition. The 2D-QSAR analysis suggested the importance of hydrophobic contributions to explain these effects. In addition, a statistically significant 3D-QSAR model built applying GRIND descriptors allowed us to propose a virtual receptor site considering pharmacophoric regions and mutual distances. Furthermore, the 3-phenylcoumarins studied were not toxic to neutrophils under the assessed conditions. (C) 2007 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A synchronous multimedia annotation system for secure collaboratories

In this paper, we describe the Vannotea system - an application designed to enable collaborating groups to discuss and annotate collections of high quality images, video, audio or 3D objects. The system has been designed specifically to capture and share scholarly discourse and annotations about multimedia research data by teams of trusted colleagues within a research or academic environment. As such, it provides: authenticated access to a web browser search interface for discovering and retrieving media objects; a media replay window that can incorporate a variety of embedded plug-ins to render different scientific media formats; an annotation authoring, editing, searching and browsing tool; and session logging and replay capabilities. Annotations are personal remarks, interpretations, questions or references that can be attached to whole files, segments or regions. Vannotea enables annotations to be attached either synchronously (using jabber message passing and audio/video conferencing) or asynchronously and stand-alone. The annotations are stored on an Annotea server, extended for multimedia content. Their access, retrieval and re-use is controlled via Shibboleth identity management and XACML access policies.

Migrating eprints.org data to a Fez repository

This document records the process of migrating eprints.org data to a Fez repository. Fez is a Web-based digital repository and workflow management system based on Fedora (http://www.fedora.info/). At the time of migration, the University of Queensland Library was using EPrints 2.2.1 [pepper] for its ePrintsUQ repository. Once we began to develop Fez, we did not upgrade to later versions of eprints.org software since we knew we would be migrating data from ePrintsUQ to the Fez-based UQ eSpace. Since this document records our experiences of migration from an earlier version of eprints.org, anyone seeking to migrate eprints.org data into a Fez repository might encounter some small differences. Moving UQ publication data from an eprints.org repository into a Fez repository (hereafter called UQ eSpace (http://espace.uq.edu.au/) was part of a plan to integrate metadata (and, in some cases, full texts) about all UQ research outputs, including theses, images, multimedia and datasets, in a single repository. This tied in with the plan to identify and capture the research output of a single institution, the main task of the eScholarshipUQ testbed for the Australian Partnership for Sustainable Repositories project (http://www.apsr.edu.au/). The migration could not occur at UQ until the functionality in Fez was at least equal to that of the existing ePrintsUQ repository. Accordingly, as Fez development occurred throughout 2006, a list of eprints.org functionality not currently supported in Fez was created so that programming of such development could be planned for and implemented.

A simple data logger for student-designed rocket experiments.

The final-year project for Mechanical & Space Engineering students at UQ often involves the design and flight testing of an experiment. This report describes the design and use of a simple data logger that should be suitable for collecting data from the students' flight experiments. The exercise here was taken as far as the construction of a prototype device that is suitable for ground-based testing, say, the static firing of a hybrid rocket motor.

Equational Reasoning as a Tool for Data Analysis

A combination of deductive reasoning, clustering, and inductive learning is given as an example of a hybrid system for exploratory data analysis. Visualization is replaced by a dialogue with the data.

Turbulence in Small Sub-Tropical Estuary with Semi-Diurnal Tides

In natural estuaries, contaminant transport is driven by the turbulent momentum mixing. The predictions of scalar dispersion can rarely be predicted accurately because of a lack of fundamental understanding of the turbulence structure in estuaries. Herein detailed turbulence field measurements were conducted at high frequency and continuously for up to 50 hours per investigation in a small subtropical estuary with semi-diurnal tides. Acoustic Doppler velocimetry was deemed the most appropriate measurement technique for such small estuarine systems with shallow water depths (less than 0.5 m at low tides), and a thorough post-processing technique was applied. The estuarine flow is always a fluctuating process. The bulk flow parameters fluctuated with periods comparable to tidal cycles and other large-scale processes. But turbulence properties depended upon the instantaneous local flow properties. They were little affected by the flow history, but their structure and temporal variability were influenced by a variety of mechanisms. This resulted in behaviour which deviated from that for equilibrium turbulent boundary layer induced by velocity shear only. A striking feature of the data sets is the large fluctuations in all turbulence characteristics during the tidal cycle. This feature was rarely documented, but an important difference between the data sets used in this study from earlier reported measurements is that the present data were collected continuously at high frequency during relatively long periods. The findings bring new lights in the fluctuating nature of momentum exchange coefficients and integral time and length scales. These turbulent properties should not be assumed constant.

Leadership Attributes and Cultural Values in Australia and New Zealand Compared: An Initial Report Based on GLOBE Data.

This paper reports a comparative study of Australian and New Zealand leadership attributes, based on the GLOBE (Global Leadership and Organizational Behavior Effectiveness) program. Responses from 344 Australian managers and 184 New Zealand managers in three industries were analyzed using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. Results supported some of the etic leadership dimensions identified in the GLOBE study, but also found some emic dimensions of leadership for each country. An interesting finding of the study was that the New Zealand data fitted the Australian model, but not vice versa, suggesting asymmetric perceptions of leadership in the two countries.

Selection bias in gene extraction on the basis of microarray gene-expression data

In the context of cancer diagnosis and treatment, we consider the problem of constructing an accurate prediction rule on the basis of a relatively small number of tumor tissue samples of known type containing the expression data on very many (possibly thousands) genes. Recently, results have been presented in the literature suggesting that it is possible to construct a prediction rule from only a few genes such that it has a negligible prediction error rate. However, in these results the test error or the leave-one-out cross-validated error is calculated without allowance for the selection bias. There is no allowance because the rule is either tested on tissue samples that were used in the first instance to select the genes being used in the rule or because the cross-validation of the rule is not external to the selection process; that is, gene selection is not performed in training the rule at each stage of the cross-validation process. We describe how in practice the selection bias can be assessed and corrected for by either performing a cross-validation or applying the bootstrap external to the selection process. We recommend using 10-fold rather than leave-one-out cross-validation, and concerning the bootstrap, we suggest using the so-called. 632+ bootstrap error estimate designed to handle overfitted prediction rules. Using two published data sets, we demonstrate that when correction is made for the selection bias, the cross-validated error is no longer zero for a subset of only a few genes.

Special issue on advances in data mining and its applications

Data mining is the process to identify valid, implicit, previously unknown, potentially useful and understandable information from large databases. It is an important step in the process of knowledge discovery in databases, (Olaru & Wehenkel, 1999). In a data mining process, input data can be structured, seme-structured, or unstructured. Data can be in text, categorical or numerical values. One of the important characteristics of data mining is its ability to deal data with large volume, distributed, time variant, noisy, and high dimensionality. A large number of data mining algorithms have been developed for different applications. For example, association rules mining can be useful for market basket problems, clustering algorithms can be used to discover trends in unsupervised learning problems, classification algorithms can be applied in decision-making problems, and sequential and time series mining algorithms can be used in predicting events, fault detection, and other supervised learning problems (Vapnik, 1999). Classification is among the most important tasks in the data mining, particularly for data mining applications into engineering fields. Together with regression, classification is mainly for predictive modelling. So far, there have been a number of classification algorithms in practice. According to (Sebastiani, 2002), the main classification algorithms can be categorized as: decision tree and rule based approach such as C4.5 (Quinlan, 1996); probability methods such as Bayesian classifier (Lewis, 1998); on-line methods such as Winnow (Littlestone, 1988) and CVFDT (Hulten 2001), neural networks methods (Rumelhart, Hinton & Wiliams, 1986); example-based methods such as k-nearest neighbors (Duda & Hart, 1973), and SVM (Cortes & Vapnik, 1995). Other important techniques for classification tasks include Associative Classification (Liu et al, 1998) and Ensemble Classification (Tumer, 1996).