FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

China's Involvement in the Hungarian Revolution, October-November 1956

The 1956 crises in the Soviet Bloc states, and the Hungarian October events in particular, had a profound impact on China's international and domestic policies. The Chinese Communist Party leadership – party chairman Mao Zedong in particular – had by the end of mid-1950s begun to conceive of "a great Chinese revolution," which would largely take the form of large-scale industrial modernization. At the same time, China's awareness that it could develop into a leading player in the international socialist camp led Mao and his colleagues to actively intervene on the East European scene, posing an implicit challenge to the Soviet dominance in the bloc. The apparent desire of the Hungarian and Polish people to break free from Stalinist socialism, and the real risk, as Mao saw it, of the bloc foundering, convinced the Chinese Party that only reforming institutional socialism and revising the Stalinist pattern of inter-state relations could keep the camp intact.

La literatura de la neo-violencia en Colombia : manifestaciones thanáticas en el siglo XXI

La rédaction de ce mémoire a été possible grâce à la bourse d’études supérieures du Canada (BESC M), Joseph-Armand-Bombardier du Centre de Recherche en Sciences Humaines (CRSH) du gouvernement du Canada, 2015.

El teatro peruano contemporáneo (1960-2000). Aproximación

An Approach to contemporary Peruvian theatre (1960-2000) is a work of research that attempts to justify an initial assumption: contemporary Peruvian theatre could not have come to an end at the close of the 1950s with the few writers mentioned briefly in histories of literature, such as Sebastián Salazar Bondy, Enrique Solari Swayne, Juan Ríos and Julio Ramón Ribeyro. Moreover, these are writers noted for their work in other areas of literature and not specifically defined as playwrights. There must have been a new generation of theatrical authors starting in the 1960s who did not gain notoriety in Peru or, of course, beyond its borders. In the preface to his collected works, Mario Vargas Llosa gives us a clue that illustrates this period: “To write theatre in the Lima of those years, was worse than to weep; it was almost to condemn yourself never to see what you wrote on the stage, which is even sadder and more frustrating than it is for a poet or novelist to die unpublished.” [2001: 4] The huge social inequality that characterised Peruvian society at the time meant that only a small elite had access to theatres...

Essays on internationalization in the context of heterogeneous firms

The significant increase in global trade flows in last decades has been one of the main features of the globalization process that started in the 1950s. In general, the main factors behind this increase were linked to (i) the significant reductions of trade costs and technical barriers; (ii) the improvements in transport infrastructure and telecommunications; (iii) the progress of the international financial system and the increasing legal certainty; and (iv) the development of a corporate culture that promotes the internationalization of firms as a strategic tool in order to survive and to grow. The remarkable increase of trade openness has also been observed in the Spanish economy. In this regard, it is clear that the entry into force of the Treaty of Accession of Spain to the European Economic Community (now the European Union) in 1986 played a main role in this dramatic increase. In addition, and because of the deep depression of domestic demand caused by the global financial and economic crisis that started in 2008, the external trade has become a key driver in the economic recovery of the Spanish economy...

Making the Men of Tomorrow: American Science Fiction and the Politics of Masculinity, 1965 – 1974

Suggesting that the political diversity of American science fiction during the 1960s and early 1970s constitutes a response to the dominance of social liberalism throughout the 1940s and 1950s, I argue in Making the Men of Tomorrow that the development of new hegemonic masculinities in science fiction is a consequence of political speculation. Focusing on four representative and influential texts from the 1960s and early 1970s, Philip K. Dick’s The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch and Ubik, Robert A. Heinlein’s The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress, and Ursula K. Le Guin’s The Dispossessed, this thesis explores the relationship between different conceptions of hegemonic masculinity and three separate but related political ideologies: the social ethic, market libertarianism, and socialist libertarianism. In the first two chapters in which I discuss Dick’s novels, I argue that Dick interrogates organizational masculinity as part of a larger project that suggests the inevitable infeasibility of both the social ethic and its predecessor, social liberalism. In the next chapter, I shift my attention to Heinlein’s The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress as a way of showing how, unlike Dick, other authors of the 1960s and early 1970s sought to move beyond social liberalism by imagining how new political ideologies, in this case market libertarianism, might change the way men see themselves. Having demonstrated how the libertarian potential of Heinlein’s novel is ultimately undermined by its insistent and uncompromising biological determinism, I then discuss how Le Guin’s The Dispossessed uses the socialist libertarianism of the moon Anarres to suggest a more egalitarian form of masculinity, one that makes possible, to some extent at least, a future in which men might embrace not only the mutual aid of socialism, but also the primacy of individual rights that is at the heart of all forms of libertarianism and liberalism.

Work, class and conflict: a comparative study of three Cork factories, incorporating oral testimony

This dissertation presents a comparative study of three factories in Cork Harbour area, Sunbeam Wolsey (1927-90), Irish Steel (1939-2001) and the Ford Marina Plant (1917-84). All three factories were significant industrial employers in both a domestic (Irish) and a local (Cork) context and are broadly representative of the Irish manufacturing industry that was developed under the policies of tariff protection introduced in the 1930s and gradually phased out between the late 1950s and the mid-1980s. Sunbeam Wolsey was a textile and clothing concern located on the north side of Cork City that possessed a borderline monopoly within its economic sector and was among the largest private employers of female labour in twentieth century Ireland. Irish Steel was the country’s only steel mill, located on Haulbowline island, a brief ferry-ride from the seaside town of Cobh, and was unusual in being one of the few manufacturing concerns operated as a nationalised industry under the auspices of the state. The Ford Marina plant predated the introduction of protectionism by more than a decade and began as the centre of the Ford empire’s tractor manufacturing business, before switching to the production of private motor vehicles for the Irish market in 1932. All three industries were closed or sold off when the state withdrew support, either in the form of tariff protection (Ford, Sunbeam) or direct funding (Irish Steel). While devoting much attention to the three firms, the central concern of this dissertation is not the companies themselves (though the economic history portion of the dissertation is substantial), but the workers they employed, examining the lives of these individuals both as members of the Irish working class, and, more specifically, as employees of the three factories under consideration. The project can be best described as a comparative factory study, comparing and contrasting the three workforces, focusing primarily on industrial relation and the experience of work. This dissertation utilises both documentary evidence and a significant quantity of oral testimony, breaking new ground by making the workplace the central focus of its investigation. The principal aims of the study are: 1. To document the lives of those who worked in these factories, capturing through oral testimony their subjective experiences of social class and factory life, as well as differences among narrators in terms of gender and status. In achieving this aim, the study will provide a broader social context for its detailed analysis of work and industrial relations in each firm. 2. To analyse the three workplaces and determine how and why each developed such distinct systems of industrial relations at the factory level, as well as to compare and contrast these systems. 3. To examine the nature of work in each factory and to determine how work and industrial relations in each firm developed over time, relating these changes both to internal and external factors. Additionally, the project will provide a comparative analysis of these changes.

The Bereaved Post-9/11 Orphan Boy : Representing (and Relativizing) Crisis and Healing, Tradition and Invention

This article compares the sorrowing child in Jonathan Safran Foer’s Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2005) and Brian Selznick’s The Invention of Hugo Cabret (2007), which break traditional novelistic frames through their use of visual material. Through their employment of the orphan figure and their inventive, experimental formal aspects, both Foer’s and Selznick’s novels work as interventions in the debate about the role of fiction after 9/11. Steering clear of a never-ending state of orphanhood, or a return to the nuclear family ideal of the 1950s, they offer different solutions to the family crisis triggered by the loss of a father in a burning building, and, by extension, to the national crisis triggered by 9/11. The bond between father and son that the novels portray represents an affective masculinity that is in line with the emotional narrative work that the two orphan boys perform in the plot and for the readers, which is similar to that of orphan girls in earlier American fiction. In addition to fulfilling the time-honored function of the orphan healing the adult world in a crisis-laden present, Foer’s Oskar and Selznick’s Hugo are post-9/11 “inventions” that highlight the uses of invention in a post-9/11 world.

Macrodynamics of economics: a bibliometric history

A history of specialties in economics since the late 1950s is constructed on the basis of a large corpus of documents from economics journals. The production of this history relies on a combination of algorithmic methods that avoid subjective assessments of the boundaries of specialties: bibliographic coupling, automated community detection in dynamic networks and text mining. these methods uncover a structuring of economics around recognizable specialties with some significant changes over the time-period covered (1956-2014). Among our results, especially noteworthy are (a) the clearcut existence of 10 families of specialties, (b) the disappearance in the late 1970s of a specialty focused on general economic theory, (c) the dispersal of the econometrics-centered specialty in the early 1990s and the ensuing importance of specific econometric methods for the identity of many specialties since the 1990s, (d) the low level of specialization of individual economists throughout the period in contrast to physicists as early as the late 1960s.

Gender, class and the household economy in Scotland in the ‘Age of affluence’

From early 1950s to the early 1970s Britain is said to have experienced an ‘age of affluence’. Whilst material conditions for many households improved in these decades, this detailed examination of budget management processes shows that for many working-class households, these gains were the product of hard work and careful money management. Using oral history methodology, this thesis explores lived experiences of the household economy to illuminate these qualifications to ‘affluence’. In so doing, this thesis advances analysis which considers the relationship between the macro-level economic conditions of affluence and the everyday economic realities of households in the post-war period. The thesis examines the operation of the household economy and shows how working-class households utilised domestic labour, budgeting, paid work, credit and thrift to make ends meet, as well as to achieve ‘affluence’. Further, by exploring these areas of the household economy, this thesis shows that gendered ideology continued to preserve power and material inequalities between men and women. Although considerable change did occur, particularly involvement in the paid labour market, domestic responsibilities continued to be an important focus of women’s identities and the effective performance of these duties by women remained central to the success of the household. This thesis represents a fresh focus on how the exploration of everyday life, including the salience of ideological continuities in shaping experience, can qualify and refine our understanding of twentieth century economic and social change, and contributes to socio-historical understandings of ‘affluence’ and its intersections with the household, gender, and class.

Richard Yates: re-writing postwar American culture

This thesis explores the fiction of American author Richard Yates to propose that his work provides an insistent questioning and alternative vision of postwar American culture. Such an approach is informed by a revisionist account of four distinct yet interconnected areas of postwar culture: the role of the non-heroic soldier stepping in and out of World War II; suburbanisation and fashioning of anti-suburban performance; demarcation of gender roles and unraveling of sexual conservatism in the 1950s; consideration of what constituted the normative within postwar discourse and representations of mental illness in Yates’ work. These four spheres of interest form the backbone to this study in its combined aim of reclaiming Yates’ fiction in line with a more progressive historical framework while shaping a new critical appreciation of his fiction. Such analysis will be primed by an opening discussion that illustrates how Yates’ fiction has frequently been ensconced in a limited interpretative lens: an approach, that I argue, has kept Yates on the periphery of the canon and ultimately resulted in the neglect of an author who provided a rich, progressive and historically significant dialogue of postwar American life. This PhD arrives at a point when Yatesian scholarship is finally gaining momentum after the cumulative impact of a comprehensive biography, a faithful film adaptation of his seminal text Revolutionary Road (1961), plus the recent re-issue of his catalogue of work. An assessment as to why he remained on the margins of success for the duration of his career is therefore of pressing interest in light of this recent critical and commercial recognition.

Detection of Glass pattern configurations by the primary visual cortex

The neurons in the primary visual cortex that respond to the orientation of visual stimuli were discovered in the late 1950s (Hubel, D.H. & Wiesel, T.N. 1959. J. Physiol. 148:574-591) but how they achieve this response is poorly understood. Recently, experiments have demonstrated that the visual cortex may use the image processing techniques of cross or auto-correlation to detect the streaks in random dot patterns (Barlow, H. & Berry, D.L. 2010. Proc. R. Soc. B. 278: 2069-2075). These experiments made use of sinusoidally modulated random dot patterns and of the so-called Glass patterns - where randomly positioned dot pairs are oriented in a parallel configuration (Glass, L. 1969. Nature. 223: 578-580). The image processing used by the visual cortex could be inferred from how the threshold of detection of these patterns in the presence of random noise varied as a function of the dot density in the patterns. In the present study, the detection thresholds have been measured for other types of patterns including circular, hyperbolic, spiral and radial Glass patterns and an indication of the type of image processing (cross or auto-correlation) by the visual cortex is presented. As a result, it is hoped that this study will contribute to an understanding of what David Marr called the ‘computational goal’ of the primary visual cortex (Marr, D. 1982. Vision: A Computational Investigation into the Human Representation and Processing of Visual Information. New York: Freeman.)

¿Fue el compromiso y consenso de las elites lo que llevo a la consolidación democrática en Costa Rica? Evidencias de la década de 1950.

Resumen Con base en evidencias empíricas el autor se opone a la hipótesis de que fue el compromiso y el consenso de las elites lo que llevo a la consolidación de la democracia en Costa Rica y muestra que aun en la década de 1950 los políticos estaban dispuestos a utilizar la fuerza para derribar a sus enemigos. Abstract Using empirical evidence the author rejects the hypothesis that it was compromise and consensus among Costa Rican Elites which lead to the consolidation of democracy in Costa Rican, and shows that even in the 1950´s politicians were willing to used force in order to bring down their opponents

I processi ai résisistants. Giustizia e memoria nella Francia del secondo dopoguerra.

La tesi si propone di analizzare i procedimenti giudiziari avviati dalla magistratura francese nel dopoguerra - dal 1945 alla metà degli anni Cinquanta – a carico di ex partigiani per crimini commessi tra il 1944 e il 1° giugno 1946, data legale della cessazione delle ostilità. La tesi è strutturata in quattro capitoli tematici principali. Andando oltre la cesura rappresentata dalla fine della Seconda Guerra Mondiale, la tesi esamina un aspetto poco conosciuto di quanto accaduto dopo la fine della guerra di liberazione, coinvolgendo alcuni dei suoi protagonisti. Fin dall'inizio, la Resistenza ha rappresentato una complessa "questione memoriale"; questo studio mostra come i processi ai partigiani si inseriscano nel quadro più ampio della difficile costruzione della memoria degli anni della guerra. In effetti, i processi ai partigiani hanno costituito un terreno di confronto politico e sono stati strumentalizzati. Inoltre, la tesi si inserisce nel dibattito storiografico intorno alla categoria della giustizia di transizione, completando un quadro che si limitava allo studio dell’epurazione. È un nuovo sguardo sul periodo di transizione che ci permette di osservare, in modo completo e complesso, il passaggio attraverso diverse forme di giustizia con continuità e rotture. In questo senso, lo studio dei processi porta alla luce una serie di dinamiche legate non solo agli attori direttamente coinvolti, ma anche alla società in generale.

Beyond weaponry and socialist internationalism: Soviet engagement with postcolonial state-building in the Arab Middle East, 1954-1966

This research investigates the Soviet Union’s role in guiding state-building processes of postcolonial Arab countries of the Middle East, leading them to adopt economic and political elements of the socialist-Leninist models of development. The widespread narrative depicts the Soviets as having failed to export communism in those states and, therefore, as having failed to bring them closer to Moscow’s sphere of influence and values. However, various Soviet archives suggest a different reality. As the Cold War burst forth, between the mid-1950s and mid-1960s, contacts between Soviet and Arab officials were not just incredibly frequent but they went to the core of all main issues of socio-economic development of these transforming countries: party politics, institution building, agrarian reforms, industrialisation, security sector reforms, etc. The research focuses on a period that may be labelled as ‘the launching phase’ of the Soviet Middle East policy, which established a long-lasting framework for the Soviet-Arab dialogue. It also places significant attention on the ‘personal dimension’ of such a dialogue, showing how Moscow’s influence went hand in hand with the ability of Soviet leaders and diplomats to establish relations of personal trust with postcolonial Arab élites. A selected number of Arab countries are examined: Egypt, Iraq and Syria. For each of these countries, a limited period of time will be taken into consideration, when Soviet influence reached its peak and state-building policies might have drawn from the Soviet model (for Egypt 1954-1958; for Iraq 1958-1963; for Syria 1961-1966). On the one hand, the analysis of specific case-studies will allow to investigate the relationship between Moscow and each of these new Arab regimes; on the other, such a large geographical scope will permit to grasp the elements and the objectives of the broader Soviet policy towards the Middle East region.