Sustaining growth and profits in a rapidly changing world - a Chinese perspective

The aim of this paper is to stimulate discussion about how Chinese construction and professional service companies can best equip themselves and grow sustainably and profitably in a rapidly changing world. It identifies some of the issues and risks faced by Chinese construction and professional service companies operating domestically and overseas. China has experienced a period of rapid economic growth which is also reflected in the annual construction output. China’s population is the largest in the world, but the demographic profile is changing with an ageing population and a changing dependency ratio. The population is urbanising at a fast rate, putting pressure on housing, and infrastructure. The government must plan for the future and the construction sector must be involved in that planning. The paper considers the drivers shaping China’s construction market, how companies are responding by embracing change and internationalising by seeking to exploit their skills overseas. The drivers are globalisation, urbanisation, demographic change, sustainability, safety and health, and the evolution of professional services as a core part of construction activity. Clients/owners are driving change by demanding more certainty and more sustainable projects.

Late-Holocene changes in character and behaviour of land-terminating glaciers on James Ross Island, Antarctica

Virtually no information is available on the response of land-terminating Antarctic Peninsula glaciers to climate change on a centennial timescale. This paper analyses the topography, geomorphology and sedimentology of prominent moraines on James Ross Island, Antarctica, to determine geometric changes and to interpret glacier behaviour. The moraines are very likely due to a late-Holocene phase of advance and featured (1) shearing and thrusting within the snout, (2) shearing and deformation of basal sediment, (3) more supraglacial debris than at present and (4) short distances of sediment transport. Retreat of ∼100 m and thinning of 15–20 m has produced a loss of 0.1 km3 of ice. The pattern of surface lowering is asymmetric. These geometrical changes are suggested most simply to be due to a net negative mass balance caused by a drier climate. Comparisons of the moraines with the current glaciological surface structure of the glaciers permits speculation of a transition from a polythermal to a cold-based thermal regime. Small land-terminating glaciers in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region could be cooling despite a warming climate.

The grass-free lawn: management and species choice for optimum ground cover and plant diversity

In Britain, managed grass lawns provide the most traditional and widespread of garden and landscape practices in use today. Grass lawns are coming under increasing challenge as they tend to support a low level of biodiversity and can require substantial additional inputs to maintain. Here we apply a novel approach to the traditional monocultural lawnscape by replacing grasses entirely with clonal perennial forbs. We monitored changes in plant coverage and species composition over a two year period and here we report the results of a study comparing plant origin native, non-native and mixed) and mowing regime. This allows us to assess the viability of this construct as an alternative to traditional grass lawns. Grass-free lawns provided a similar level of plant cover to grass lawns. Both the mowing regime and the combination of species used affected this outcome, with native plant species seen to have the highest survival rates, and mowing at 4cm to produce the greatest amount of ground coverage and plant species diversity within grass-free lawns. Grass-free lawns required over 50% less mowing than a traditionally managed grass lawn. Observations suggest that plant forms that exhibited: a) a relatively fast growth rate, b) a relatively large individual leaf area, and c) an average leaf height substantially above the cut to be applied, were unsuitable for use in grass-free lawns. With an equivalent level of ground coverage to grass lawns, increased plant diversity and a reduced need for mowing, the grass-free lawn can be seen as a species diverse, lower input and potentially highly ornamental alternative to the traditional lawn format.

The three-dimensional morphology of simulated and observed convective storms over southern England

A set of high-resolution radar observations of convective storms has been collected to evaluate such storms in the UK Met Office Unified Model during the DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms). The 3-GHz Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar was set up with a scan-scheduling algorithm to automatically track convective storms identified in real-time from the operational rainfall radar network. More than 1,000 storm observations gathered over fifteen days in 2011 and 2012 are used to evaluate the model under various synoptic conditions supporting convection. In terms of the detailed three-dimensional morphology, storms in the 1500-m grid-length simulations are shown to produce horizontal structures a factor 1.5–2 wider compared to radar observations. A set of nested model runs at grid lengths down to 100m show that the models converge in terms of storm width, but the storm structures in the simulations with the smallest grid lengths are too narrow and too intense compared to the radar observations. The modelled storms were surrounded by a region of drizzle without ice reflectivities above 0 dBZ aloft, which was related to the dominance of ice crystals and was improved by allowing only aggregates as an ice particle habit. Simulations with graupel outperformed the standard configuration for heavy-rain profiles, but the storm structures were a factor 2 too wide and the convective cores 2 km too deep.

Climatology of Upper Tropospheric–Lower Stratospheric (UTLS) Jets and Tropopauses in MERRA

A global climatology (1979–2012) from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) shows distributions and seasonal evolution of upper tropospheric jets and their relationships to the stratospheric subvortex and multiple tropopauses. The overall climatological patterns of upper tropospheric jets confirm those seen in previous studies, indicating accurate representation of jet stream dynamics in MERRA. The analysis shows a Northern Hemisphere (NH) upper tropospheric jet stretching nearly zonally from the mid-Atlantic across Africa and Asia. In winter–spring, this jet splits over the eastern Pacific, merges again over eastern North America, and then shifts poleward over the North Atlantic. The jets associated with tropical circulations are also captured, with upper tropospheric westerlies demarking cyclonic flow downstream from the Australian and Asian monsoon anticyclones and associated easterly jets. Multiple tropopauses associated with the thermal tropopause “break” commonly extend poleward from the subtropical upper tropospheric jet. In Southern Hemisphere (SH) summer, the tropopause break, along with a poleward-stretching secondary tropopause, often occurs across the tropical westerly jet downstream of the Australian monsoon region. SH high-latitude multiple tropopauses, nearly ubiquitous in June–July, are associated with the unique polar winter thermal structure. High-latitude multiple tropopauses in NH fall–winter are, however, sometimes associated with poleward-shifted upper tropospheric jets. The SH subvortex jet extends down near the level of the subtropical jet core in winter and spring. Most SH subvortex jets merge with an upper tropospheric jet between May and December; although much less persistent than in the SH, merged NH subvortex jets are common between November and April.

The intelligence paradox; will ET get the metabolic syndrome? Lessons from and for Earth

Mankind is facing an unprecedented health challenge in the current pandemic of obesity and diabetes. We propose that this is the inevitable (and predictable) consequence of the evolution of intelligence, which itself could be an expression of life being an information system driven by entropy. Because of its ability to make life more adaptable and robust, intelligence evolved as an efficient adaptive response to the stresses arising from an ever-changing environment. These adaptive responses are encapsulated by the epiphenomena of “hormesis”, a phenomenon we believe to be central to the evolution of intelligence and essential for the maintenance of optimal physiological function and health. Thus, as intelligence evolved, it would eventually reach a cognitive level with the ability to control its environment through technology and have the ability remove all stressors. In effect, it would act to remove the very hormetic factors that had driven its evolution. Mankind may have reached this point, creating an environmental utopia that has reduced the very stimuli necessary for optimal health and the evolution of intelligence – “the intelligence paradox”. One of the hallmarks of this paradox is of course the rising incidence in obesity, diabetes and the metabolic syndrome. This leads to the conclusion that wherever life evolves, here on earth or in another part of the galaxy, the “intelligence paradox’” would be the inevitable side-effect of the evolution of intelligence. ET may not need to just “phone home” but may also need to “phone the local gym”. This suggests another possible reason to explain Fermi’s paradox; Enrico Fermi, the famous physicist, suggested in the 1950s that if extra-terrestrial intelligence was so prevalent, which was a common belief at the time, then where was it? Our suggestion is that if advanced life has got going elsewhere in our galaxy, it can’t afford to explore the galaxy because it has to pay its healthcare costs.

Temporal and spatial variability of auroral forms in the 10–14 MLT sector: Relationship to plasma convection and solar wind-magnetosphere coupling

Ground-based observations of dayside auroral forms and magnetic perturbations in the arctic sectors of Svalbard and Greenland, in combination with the high-resolution measurements of ionospheric ion drift and temperature by the EISCAT radar, are used to study temporal/spatial structures of cusp-type auroral forms in relation to convection. Large-scale patterns of equivalent convection in the dayside polar ionosphere are derived from the magnetic observations in Greenland and Svalbard. This information is used to estimate the ionospheric convection pattern in the vicinity of the cusp/cleft aurora. The reported observations, covering the period 0700-1130 UT, on January 11, 1993, are separated into four intervals according to the observed characteristics of the aurora and ionospheric convection. The morphology and intensity of the aurora are very different in quiet and disturbed intervals. A latitudinally narrow zone of intense and dynamical 630.0 nm emission equatorward of 75 degrees MLAT, was observed during periods of enhanced antisunward convection in the cusp region. This (type 1 cusp aurora) is considered to be the signature of plasma entry via magnetopause reconnection at low magnetopause latitudes, i.e. the low-latitude boundary layer (LLB I,). Another zone of weak 630.0 nm emission (type 2 cusp aurora) was observed to extend up to high latitudes (similar to 79 degrees MLAT) during relatively quiet magnetic conditions, when indications of reverse (sunward) convection was observed in the dayside polar cap. This is postulated to be a signature of merging between a northward directed IMF (B-z > 0) and the geomagnetic field poleward of the cusp. The coexistence of type 1 and 2 auroras was observed under intermediate circumstances. The optical observations from Svalbard and Greenland were also used to determine the temporal and spatial evolution of type 1 auroral forms, i.e. poleward-moving auroral events occurring in the vicinity of a rotational convection reversal in the early post-noon sector. Each event appeared as a local brightening at the equatorward boundary of the pre-existing type 1 cusp aurora, followed by poleward and eastward expansions of luminosity. The auroral events were associated with poleward-moving surges of enhanced ionospheric convection and F-layer ion temperature as observed by the EISCAT radar in Tromso. The EISCAT ion flow data in combination with the auroral observations show strong evidence for plasma flow across the open/closed field line boundary.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening

Many theories for the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) focus on diabatic processes, particularly the evolution of vertical heating and moistening. Poor MJO performance in weather and climate models is often blamed on biases in these processes and their interactions with the large-scale circulation. We introduce one of three components of a model-evaluation project, which aims to connect MJO fidelity in models to their representations of several physical processes, focusing on diabatic heating and moistening. This component consists of 20-day hindcasts, initialised daily during two MJO events in winter 2009-10. The 13 models exhibit a range of skill: several have accurate forecasts to 20 days' lead, while others perform similarly to statistical models (8-11 days). Models that maintain the observed MJO amplitude accurately predict propagation, but not vice versa. We find no link between hindcast fidelity and the precipitation-moisture relationship, in contrast to other recent studies. There is also no relationship between models' performance and the evolution of their diabatic-heating profiles with rain rate. A more robust association emerges between models' fidelity and net moistening: the highest-skill models show a clear transition from low-level moistening for light rainfall to mid-level moistening at moderate rainfall and upper-level moistening for heavy rainfall. The mid-level moistening, arising from both dynamics and physics, may be most important. Accurately representing many processes may be necessary, but not sufficient for capturing the MJO, which suggests that models fail to predict the MJO for a broad range of reasons and limits the possibility of finding a panacea.

Social and ecological drivers of success in agri-environment schemes: the roles of farmers and environmental context

1. Agri-environment schemes remain a controversial approach to reversing biodiversity losses, partly because the drivers of variation in outcomes are poorly understood. In particular, there is a lack of studies that consider both social and ecological factors. 2. We analysed variation across 48 farms in the quality and biodiversity outcomes of agri-environmental habitats designed to provide pollen and nectar for bumblebees and butterflies or winter seed for birds. We used interviews and ecological surveys to gather data on farmer experience and understanding of agri-environment schemes, and local and landscape environmental factors. 3. Multimodel inference indicated social factors had a strong impact on outcomes and that farmer experiential learning was a key process. The quality of the created habitat was affected positively by the farmer’s previous experience in environmental management. The farmer’s confidence in their ability to carry out the required management was negatively related to the provision of floral resources. Farmers with more wildlife-friendly motivations tended to produce more floral resources, but fewer seed resources. 4. Bird, bumblebee and butterfly biodiversity responses were strongly affected by the quantity of seed or floral resources. Shelter enhanced biodiversity directly, increased floral resources and decreased seed yield. Seasonal weather patterns had large effects on both measures. Surprisingly, larger species pools and amounts of semi-natural habitat in the surrounding landscape had negative effects on biodiversity, which may indicate use by fauna of alternative foraging resources. 5. Synthesis and application. This is the first study to show a direct role of farmer social variables on the success of agri-environment schemes in supporting farmland biodiversity. It suggests that farmers are not simply implementing agri-environment options, but are learning and improving outcomes by doing so. Better engagement with farmers and working with farmers who have a history of environmental management may therefore enhance success. The importance of a number of environmental factors may explain why agri-environment outcomes are variable, and suggests some – such as the weather – cannot be controlled. Others, such as shelter, could be incorporated into agri-environment prescriptions. The role of landscape factors remains complex and currently eludes simple conclusions about large-scale targeting of schemes.

Intersections of Jane Jacobs’ conditions for diversity and low-carbon urban systems: a look at four global cities

Countless cities are rapidly developing across the globe, pressing the need for clear urban planning and design recommendations geared towards sustainability. This article examines the intersections of Jane Jacobs’ four conditions for diversity with low-carbon and low-energy use urban systems in four cities around the world: Lyon (France), Chicago (United-States), Kolkata (India), and Singapore (Singapore). After reviewing Jacobs’ four conditions for diversity, we introduce the four cities and describe their historical development context. We then present a framework to study the cities along three dimensions: population and density, infrastructure development/use, and climate and landscape. These cities differ in many respects and their analysis is instructive for many other cities around the globe. Jacobs’ conditions are present in all of them, manifested in different ways and to varying degrees. Overall we find that the adoption of Jacobs' conditions seems to align well with concepts of low-carbon urban systems, with their focus on walkability, transit-oriented design, and more efficient land use (i.e., smaller unit sizes). Transportation sector emissions seems to demonstrate a stronger influence from the presence of Jacobs' conditions, while the link was less pronounced in the building sector. Kolkata, a low-income, developing world city, seems to possess many of Jacobs' conditions, while exhibiting low per capita emissions - maintaining both of these during its economic expansion will take careful consideration. Greenhouse gas mitigation, however, is inherently an in situ problem and the first task must therefore be to gain local knowledge of an area before developing strategies to lower its carbon footprint.

Global and diffuse solar irradiances in urban and rural areas in southeast Brazil

The seasonal evolution of daily and hourly values of global and diffuse solar radiation at the surface are compared for the cities of Sao Paulo and Botucatu, both located in Southeast Brazil and representative of urban and rural areas, respectively. The comparisons are based on measurements of global and diffuse solar irradiance carried out at the surface during a six year simultaneous period in these two cities. Despite the similar latitude and altitude, the seasonal evolution of daily values indicate that Sao Paulo receives, during clear sky days, 7.8% less global irradiance in August and 5.1% less in June than Botucatu. On the other hand, Sao Paulo receives, during clear sky days, 3.6% more diffuse irradiance in August and 15.6% more in June than Botucatu. The seasonal variation of the diurnal cycle confirms these differences and indicates that they are more pronounced during the afternoon. The regional differences are related to the distance from the Atlantic Ocean, systematic penetration of the sea breeze and daytime evolution of the particulate matter in Sao Paulo. An important mechanism controlling the spatial distribution of solar radiation, on a regional scale, is the sea breeze penetration in Sao Paulo, bringing moisture and maritime aerosol that in turn further increases the solar radiation scattering due to pollution and further reduces the intensity of the direct component of solar radiation at the surface. Surprisingly, under clear sky conditions the atmospheric attenuation of solar radiation in Botucatu during winter - the biomass burning period due to the sugar cane harvest - is equivalent to that at Sao Paulo City, indicating that the contamination during sugar cane harvest in Southeast Brazil has a large impact in the solar radiation field at the surface.

Tidal friction in close-in satellites and exoplanets: The Darwin theory re-visited

This report is a review of Darwin`s classical theory of bodily tides in which we present the analytical expressions for the orbital and rotational evolution of the bodies and for the energy dissipation rates due to their tidal interaction. General formulas are given which do not depend on any assumption linking the tidal lags to the frequencies of the corresponding tidal waves (except that equal frequency harmonics are assumed to span equal lags). Emphasis is given to the cases of companions having reached one of the two possible final states: (1) the super-synchronous stationary rotation resulting from the vanishing of the average tidal torque; (2) capture into the 1:1 spin-orbit resonance (true synchronization). In these cases, the energy dissipation is controlled by the tidal harmonic with period equal to the orbital period (instead of the semi-diurnal tide) and the singularity due to the vanishing of the geometric phase lag does not exist. It is also shown that the true synchronization with non-zero eccentricity is only possible if an extra torque exists opposite to the tidal torque. The theory is developed assuming that this additional torque is produced by an equatorial permanent asymmetry in the companion. The results are model-dependent and the theory is developed only to the second degree in eccentricity and inclination (obliquity). It can easily be extended to higher orders, but formal accuracy will not be a real improvement as long as the physics of the processes leading to tidal lags is not better known.

Skull Modularity in Neotropical Marsupials and Monkeys: Size Variation and Evolutionary Constraint and Flexibility

An organism is built through a series of contingent factors, yet it is determined by historical, physical, and developmental constraints. A constraint should not be understood as an absolute obstacle to evolution, as it may also generate new possibilities for evolutionary change. Modularity is, in this context, an important way of organizing biological information and has been recognized as a central concept in evolutionary biology bridging on developmental, genetics, morphological, biochemical, and physiological studies. In this article, we explore how modularity affects the evolution of a complex system in two mammalian lineages by analyzing correlation, variance/covariance, and residual matrices (without size variation). We use the multivariate response to selection equation to simulate the behavior of Eutheria and Metharia skulls in terms of their evolutionary flexibility and constraints. We relate these results to classical approaches based on morphological integration tests based on functional/developmental hypotheses. Eutherians (Neotropical primates) showed smaller magnitudes of integration compared with Metatheria (didelphids) and also skull modules more clearly delimited. Didelphids showed higher magnitudes of integration and their modularity is strongly influenced by within-groups size variation to a degree that evolutionary responses are basically aligned with size variation. Primates still have a good portion of the total variation based on size; however, their enhanced modularization allows a broader spectrum of responses, more similar to the selection gradients applied (enhanced flexibility). Without size variation, both groups become much more similar in terms of modularity patterns and magnitudes and, consequently, in their evolutionary flexibility. J. Exp. Zool. (Mol. Dev. Evol.) 314B:663-683, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Embryonic Development of Ampheres leucopheus and lporangaia pustulosa (Arachnida: Opiliones: Gonyleptidae)

The first studies concerning the embryonic development of harvestmen started in the late 19th century, and focused mostly on holarctic species, and only three species of the suborder Laniatores (the largest, among the four suborders considered presently) were studied. Moreover, the last studies on embryology of harvestmen were made during the late 1970s. This study focused on the embryonic development of Ampheres leucopheus (Gonyleptidae, Caelopyginae) and Iporangaia pustulosa (Gonyleptidae, Progonyleptoidellinae). The embryonic development was followed in the field, by taking daily photographs of different eggs during about 2 months. When laid, eggs of A. leucopheus and I pustulosa have approximately 1.13 and 1.30 mm in diameter, respectively, and the second is embedded in a large amount of mucus. The eggs grow, mainly due to water absorption at the beginning of the process, and they reach a diameter of about 1.35 and 1.59 mm, respectively, close to hatching. It took, respectively, 29-56 days and 35-66 days from egg laying to hatching. For the description of the embryonic development, we use photographs from the field, SEM micrographs, and histological analysis. This allowed us, for instance, to document the progression of structures and pigmentation directly from live embryos in the field, and to record microstructures, such as the presence of perforations in the cuticle of the embryo in the place where eyes are developing. Yet, contrary to what was expected in the literature, we record an egg tooth in one of the studied laniatoreans. J. Exp. Zool. (Mol. Dev. Evol) 314B:489-502, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Evolutionary patterns in neotropical Helieae (Gentianaceae): evidence from morphology, chloroplast and nuclear DNA sequences

Parsimony-based phylogenetic analyses of the neotropical tribe Helieae (Gentianaceae) are presented, including 22 of the 23 genera and 60 species. This study is based on data from morphology, palynology, and seed micromorphology (127 structural characters), and DNA sequences (matK, trnL intron, ITS). Phylogenetic reconstructions based on ITS and morphology provided the greatest resolution, morphological data further helping to tentatively place several taxa for which DNA was not available (Celiantha, Lagenanthus, Rogersonanthus, Roraimaea, Senaea, Sipapoantha, Zonanthus). Celiantha, Prepusa and Senaea together appear as the sister clade to the rest of Helieae. The remainder of Helieae is largely divided into two large subclades, the Macrocarpaea subclade and the Symbolanthus subclade. The first subclade includes Macrocarpaea, sister to Chorisepalum, Tochia, and Zonanthus. Irlbachia and Neblinantha are placed as sisters to the Symbolanthus subclade, which includes Aripuana, Calolisianthus, Chelonanthus, Helia, Lagenanthus, Lehmanniella, Purdieanthus, Rogersonanthus, Roraimaea, Sipapoantha, and symbolanthus. Generic-level polyphyly is detected in Chelonanthus and Irlbachia. Evolution of morphological characters is discussed, and new pollen and seed characters are evaluated for the first time in a combined morphological-molecular phylogenetic analysis.