The philosophy of W. Ross Ashby and its relationship to 'The Matrix'

Ashby was a keen observer of the world around him, as per his technological and psychiatrical developments. Over the years, he drew numerous philosophical conclusions on the nature of human intelligence and the operation of the brain, on artificial intelligence and the thinking ability of computers and even on science in general. In this paper, the quite profound philosophy espoused by Ashby is considered as a whole, in particular in terms of its relationship with the world as it stands now and even in terms of scientific predictions of where things might lead. A meaningful comparison is made between Ashby's comments and the science fiction concept of 'The Matrix' and serious consideration is given as to how much Ashby's ideas lay open the possibility of the matrix becoming a real world eventuality.

Bayesian retrieval of complete posterior PDFs of oceanic rain rate from microwave observations

A new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean is presented, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain-rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes’s theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance the understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, sensitivity analyses have been conducted based on two synthetic datasets for which the “true” conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism, but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak owing to saturation effects. It is also suggested that both the choice of the estimators and the prior information are crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of the Bayesian algorithm herein is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Goal sketching: an agile approach to clarifying requirements

This paper describes a technique that can be used as part of a simple and practical agile method for requirements engineering. It is based on disciplined goal-responsibility modelling but eschews formality in favour of a set of practicality objectives. The technique can be used together with Agile Programming to develop software in internet time. We illustrate the technique and introduce lazy refinement, responsibility composition and context sketching. Goal sketching has been used in a number of real-world development.

On the nature and cause of Specific Language Impairment: a view from sentence processing and infant research

This paper addresses the nature and cause of Specific Language Impairment (SLI) by reviewing recent research in sentence processing of children with SLI compared to typically developing (TD) children and research in infant speech perception. These studies have revealed that children with SLI are sensitive to syntactic, semantic, and real-world information, but do not show sensitivity to grammatical morphemes with low phonetic saliency, and they show longer reaction times than age-matched controls. TD children from the age of 4 show trace reactivation, but some children with SLI fail to show this effect, which resembles the pattern of adults and TD children with low working memory. Finally, findings from the German Language Development (GLAD) Project have revealed that a group of children at risk for SLI had a history of an auditory delay and impaired processing of prosodic information in the first months of their life, which is not detectable later in life. Although this is a single project that needs to be replicated with a larger group of children, it provides preliminary support for accounts of SLI which make an explicit link between an early deficit in the processing of phonology and later language deficits, and the Computational Complexity Hypothesis that argues that the language deficit in children with SLI lies in difficulties integrating different types of information at the interfaces.

Identifying problematic classes in text classification

Real-world text classification tasks often suffer from poor class structure with many overlapping classes and blurred boundaries. Training data pooled from multiple sources tend to be inconsistent and contain erroneous labelling, leading to poor performance of standard text classifiers. The classification of health service products to specialized procurement classes is used to examine and quantify the extent of these problems. A novel method is presented to analyze the labelled data by selectively merging classes where there is not enough information for the classifier to distinguish them. Initial results show the method can identify the most problematic classes, which can be used either as a focus to improve the training data or to merge classes to increase confidence in the predicted results of the classifier.

Relating computer tasks to existing knowledge to improve accessibility for older adults

Routine computer tasks are often difficult for older adult computer users to learn and remember. People tend to learn new tasks by relating new concepts to existing knowledge. However, even for 'basic' computer tasks there is little, if any, existing knowledge on which older adults can base their learning. This paper investigates a custom file management interface that was designed to aid discovery and learnability by providing interface objects that are familiar to the user. A study was conducted which examined the differences between older and younger computer users when undertaking routine file management tasks using the standard Windows desktop as compared with the custom interface. Results showed that older adult computer users requested help more than ten times as often as younger users when using a standard windows/mouse configuration, made more mistakes and also required significantly more confirmations than younger users. The custom interface showed improvements over standard Windows/mouse, with fewer confirmations and less help being required. Hence, there is potential for an interface that closely mimics the real world to improve computer accessibility for older adults, aiding self-discovery and learnability.

Flexible rules cum constrained discretion: a new consensus in monetary policy

This paper demonstrates that recent influential contributions to monetary policy imply an emerging consensus whereby neither rigid rules nor complete discretion are found optimal. Instead, middle-ground monetary regimes based on rules (operative under 'normal' circumstances) to anchor inflation expectations over the long run, but designed with enough flexibility to mitigate the short-run effect of shocks (with communicated discretion in 'exceptional' circumstances temporarily overriding these rules), are gaining support in theoretical models and policy formulation and implementation. The opposition of 'rules versus discretion' has, thus, reappeared as the synthesis of 'rules cum discretion', in essence as inflation-forecast targeting. But such synthesis is not without major theoretical problems, as we argue in this contribution. Furthermore, the very recent real-world events have made it obvious that the inflation targeting strategy of monetary policy, which rests upon the new consensus paradigm in modern macroeconomics is at best a 'fair weather' model. In the turbulent economic climate of highly unstable inflation, deep financial crisis and world-wide, abrupt economic slowdown nowadays this approach needs serious rethinking to say the least, if not abandoning it altogether

Multivariable cluster analysis for high-speed industrial machinery

The overall operation and internal complexity of a particular production machinery can be depicted in terms of clusters of multidimensional points which describe the process states, the value in each point dimension representing a measured variable from the machinery. The paper describes a new cluster analysis technique for use with manufacturing processes, to illustrate how machine behaviour can be categorised and how regions of good and poor machine behaviour can be identified. The cluster algorithm presented is the novel mean-tracking algorithm, capable of locating N-dimensional clusters in a large data space in which a considerable amount of noise is present. Implementation of the algorithm on a real-world high-speed machinery application is described, with clusters being formed from machinery data to indicate machinery error regions and error-free regions. This analysis is seen to provide a promising step ahead in the field of multivariable control of manufacturing systems.

Cybernetics – the modern science of systems

This article has been written in memory of Norbert Wiener and is dedicated to him. Takes a look at how cybernetics provides an extremely useful framework for the control and operation of real-world systems. With the true advent of computers and simple communications, many more processes can and will be viewed from a systems standpoint. Examples are given of how cybernetics can be applied to industrial processes and how it is seen as an important, integral part of future systems science.

Learning enhanced 3D models for vehicle tracking

This paper presents an enhanced hypothesis verification strategy for 3D object recognition. A new learning methodology is presented which integrates the traditional dichotomic object-centred and appearance-based representations in computer vision giving improved hypothesis verification under iconic matching. The "appearance" of a 3D object is learnt using an eigenspace representation obtained as it is tracked through a scene. The feature representation implicitly models the background and the objects observed enabling the segmentation of the objects from the background. The method is shown to enhance model-based tracking, particularly in the presence of clutter and occlusion, and to provide a basis for identification. The unified approach is discussed in the context of the traffic surveillance domain. The approach is demonstrated on real-world image sequences and compared to previous (edge-based) iconic evaluation techniques.

Communicability across evolving networks

Many natural and technological applications generate time ordered sequences of networks, defined over a fixed set of nodes; for example time-stamped information about ‘who phoned who’ or ‘who came into contact with who’ arise naturally in studies of communication and the spread of disease. Concepts and algorithms for static networks do not immediately carry through to this dynamic setting. For example, suppose A and B interact in the morning, and then B and C interact in the afternoon. Information, or disease, may then pass from A to C, but not vice versa. This subtlety is lost if we simply summarize using the daily aggregate network given by the chain A-B-C. However, using a natural definition of a walk on an evolving network, we show that classic centrality measures from the static setting can be extended in a computationally convenient manner. In particular, communicability indices can be computed to summarize the ability of each node to broadcast and receive information. The computations involve basic operations in linear algebra, and the asymmetry caused by time’s arrow is captured naturally through the non-mutativity of matrix-matrix multiplication. Illustrative examples are given for both synthetic and real-world communication data sets. We also discuss the use of the new centrality measures for real-time monitoring and prediction.

The plastic self organising map

A novel extension to Kohonen's self-organising map, called the plastic self organising map (PSOM), is presented. PSOM is unlike any other network because it only has one phase of operation. The PSOM does not go through a training cycle before testing, like the SOM does and its variants. Each pattern is thus treated identically for all time. The algorithm uses a graph structure to represent data and can add or remove neurons to learn dynamic nonstationary pattern sets. The network is tested on a real world radar application and an artificial nonstationary problem.

Application of a hybrid tracking algorithm to motion analysis

An algorithm for tracking multiple feature positions in a dynamic image sequence is presented. This is achieved using a combination of two trajectory-based methods, with the resulting hybrid algorithm exhibiting the advantages of both. An optimizing exchange algorithm is described which enables short feature paths to be tracked without prior knowledge of the motion being studied. The resulting partial trajectories are then used to initialize a fast predictor algorithm which is capable of rapidly tracking multiple feature paths. As this predictor algorithm becomes tuned to the feature positions being tracked, it is shown how the location of occluded or poorly detected features can be predicted. The results of applying this tracking algorithm to data obtained from real-world scenes are then presented.

Investigating familiar interfaces to help older adults learn computer applications more easily

Many older adults wish to gain competence in using a computer, but many application interfaces are perceived as complex and difficult to use, deterring potential users from investing the time to learn them. Hence, this study looks at the potential of ‘familiar’ interface design which builds upon users’ knowledge of real world interactions, and applies existing skills to a new domain. Tools are provided in the form of familiar visual objects, and manipulated like real-world counterparts, rather than with buttons, icons and menus found in classic WIMP interfaces. This paper describes the formative evaluation of computer interactions that are based upon familiar real world tasks, which supports multitouch interaction, involves few buttons and icons, no menus, no right-clicks or double-clicks and no dialogs. Using an example of an email client to test the principles of using “familiarity”, the initial feedback was very encouraging, with 3 of the 4 participants being able to undertake some of the basic email tasks with no prior training and little or no help. The feedback has informed a number of refinements of the design principles, such as providing clearer affordance for visual objects. A full study is currently underway.

Experiments into biology-technology interaction

In this paper a look is taken at how the use of implant and electrode technology can be employed to create biological brains for robots, to enable human enhancement and to diminish the effects of certain neural illnesses. In all cases the end result is to increase the range of abilities of the recipients. An indication is given of a number of areas in which such technology has already had a profound effect, a key element being the need for a clear interface linking a biological brain directly with computer technology. The emphasis is placed on practical scientific studies that have been and are being undertaken and reported on. The area of focus is the use of electrode technology, where either a connection is made directly with the cerebral cortex and/or nervous system or where implants into the human body are involved. The paper also considers robots that have biological brains in which human neurons can be employed as the sole thinking machine for a real world robot body.