On the question of proportionality of the count of observed Scrapie cases and the size of holding

Background: The present paper investigates the question of a suitable basic model for the number of scrapie cases in a holding and applications of this knowledge to the estimation of scrapie-ffected holding population sizes and adequacy of control measures within holding. Is the number of scrapie cases proportional to the size of the holding in which case it should be incorporated into the parameter of the error distribution for the scrapie counts? Or, is there a different - potentially more complex - relationship between case count and holding size in which case the information about the size of the holding should be better incorporated as a covariate in the modeling? Methods: We show that this question can be appropriately addressed via a simple zero-truncated Poisson model in which the hypothesis of proportionality enters as a special offset-model. Model comparisons can be achieved by means of likelihood ratio testing. The procedure is illustrated by means of surveillance data on classical scrapie in Great Britain. Furthermore, the model with the best fit is used to estimate the size of the scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain by means of two capture-recapture estimators: the Poisson estimator and the generalized Zelterman estimator. Results: No evidence could be found for the hypothesis of proportionality. In fact, there is some evidence that this relationship follows a curved line which increases for small holdings up to a maximum after which it declines again. Furthermore, it is pointed out how crucial the correct model choice is when applied to capture-recapture estimation on the basis of zero-truncated Poisson models as well as on the basis of the generalized Zelterman estimator. Estimators based on the proportionality model return very different and unreasonable estimates for the population sizes. Conclusion: Our results stress the importance of an adequate modelling approach to the association between holding size and the number of cases of classical scrapie within holding. Reporting artefacts and speculative biological effects are hypothesized as the underlying causes of the observed curved relationship. The lack of adjustment for these artefacts might well render ineffective the current strategies for the control of the disease.

A bagging-based correction for the mixture model estimator of population size

Estimation of a population size by means of capture-recapture techniques is an important problem occurring in many areas of life and social sciences. We consider the frequencies of frequencies situation, where a count variable is used to summarize how often a unit has been identified in the target population of interest. The distribution of this count variable is zero-truncated since zero identifications do not occur in the sample. As an application we consider the surveillance of scrapie in Great Britain. In this case study holdings with scrapie that are not identified (zero counts) do not enter the surveillance database. The count variable of interest is the number of scrapie cases per holding. For count distributions a common model is the Poisson distribution and, to adjust for potential heterogeneity, a discrete mixture of Poisson distributions is used. Mixtures of Poissons usually provide an excellent fit as will be demonstrated in the application of interest. However, as it has been recently demonstrated, mixtures also suffer under the so-called boundary problem, resulting in overestimation of population size. It is suggested here to select the mixture model on the basis of the Bayesian Information Criterion. This strategy is further refined by employing a bagging procedure leading to a series of estimates of population size. Using the median of this series, highly influential size estimates are avoided. In limited simulation studies it is shown that the procedure leads to estimates with remarkable small bias.

Writing in French in secondary schools in England and Germany: are the British really 'bad language learners’?

It is widely assumed that the British are poorer modern foreign language (MFL) learners than their fellow Europeans. Motivation has often been seen as the main cause of this perceived disparity in language learning success. However, there have also been suggestions that curricular and pedagogical factors may play a part. This article reports a research project investigating how German and English 14- to 16-year-old learners of French as a first foreign language compare to one another in their vocabulary knowledge and in the lexical diversity, accuracy and syntactic complexity of their writing. Students from comparable schools in Germany and England were set two writing tasks which were marked by three French native speakers using standardised criteria aligned to the Common European Framework of Reference (CEF). Receptive vocabulary size and lexical diversity were established by the X_lex test and a verb types measure respectively. Syntactic complexity and formal accuracy were respectively assessed using the mean length of T-units (MLTU) and words/error metrics. Students' and teachers' questionnaires and semi-structured interviews were used to provide information and participants' views on classroom practices, while typical textbooks and feedback samples were analysed to establish differences in materials-related input and feedback in the two countries. The German groups were found to be superior in vocabulary size, and in the accuracy, lexical diversity and overall quality – but not the syntactic complexity – of their writing. The differences in performance outcomes are analysed and discussed with regard to variables related to the educational contexts (e.g. curriculum design and methodology).

Optical changes and writing on hydrotalcite supported gold nanoparticles

Gold nanoparticles (AuNP) incorporated into hydrotalcite (HT), provide an interesting type of pigment in which temperature can modulate the plasmon resonance and the aggregation phenomenon. As inferred from microscopy techniques, the preferential binding sites are located at the border of the HT external basal surface, leading to aggregates of gold nanoparticles displaying characteristic plasmon resonance and interference bands around 520 and 700 nm, respectively. The thermally induced color changes in the HT-supported gold material arise from the competition between of nanoparticles aggregation and fusion processes, as characterized by TEM and STM. A laser beam can also induce such changes, allowing the writing of optical information on this type of material.

Effects of laser-weld joint opening size on fatigue strength of Ti-6Al-4V structures with several diameters

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Patch-size and isolation effects in the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation

We examine the classical problem of the existence of a threshold size for a patch to allow for survival of a given population in the case where the patch is not completely isolated. The surrounding habitat matrix is characterized by a non-zero carrying capacity. We show that a critical patch size cannot be strictly defined in this case. We also obtain the saturation density in such a patch as a function of the size of the patch and the relative carrying capacity of the outer region. We argue that this relative carrying capacity is a measure of the isolation of the patch. Our results are then compared with conclusions drawn from observations of the population dynamics of understorey birds in fragments of the Amazonian forest and shown to qualitatively agree with them, offering an explanation for the importance of dispersal and isolation in these observations. Finally, we show that a generalized critical patch size can be introduced resorting to threshold densities for the observation of a given species.

Shape, transverse size, and charged-hadron multiplicity of jets in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Multifractal characterization of saprolite particle-size distributions after topsoil removal

Multifractal analysis is now increasingly used to characterize soil properties as it may provide more information than a single fractal model. During the building of a large reservoir on the Parana River (Brazil), a highly weathered soil profile was excavated to a depth between 5 and 8 m. Excavation resulted in an abandoned area with saprolite materials and, in this area, an experimental field was established to assess the effectiveness of different soil rehabilitation treatments. The experimental design consisted of randomized blocks. The aim of this work was to characterize particle-size distributions of the saprolite material and use the information obtained to assess between-block variability. Particle-size distributions of the experimental plots were characterized by multifractal techniques. Ninety-six soil samples were analyzed routinely for particle-size distribution by laser diffractometry in a range of scales, varying from 0.390 to 2000 mu m. Six different textural classes (USDA) were identified with a clay content ranging from 16.9% to 58.4%. Multifractal models described reasonably well the scaling properties of particle-size distributions of the saprolite material. This material exhibits a high entropy dimension, D-1. Parameters derived from the left side (q > 0) of the f(alpha) spectra, D-1, the correlation dimension (D-2) and the range (alpha(0)-alpha(q+)), as well as the total width of the spectra (alpha(max) - alpha(min)) all showed dependence on the clay content. Sand, silt and clay contents were significantly different among treatments as a consequence of soil intrinsic variability. The D, and the Holder exponent of order zero, alpha(0), were not significantly different between treatments; in contrast, D-2 and several fractal attributes describing the width of the f(alpha) spectra were significantly different between treatments. The only parameter showing significant differences between sampling depths was (alpha(0) - alpha(q+)). Scale independent fractal attributes may be useful for characterizing intrinsic particle-size distribution variability. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determinação do ponto de carga zero da bauxita da região nordeste do Pará

No nordeste do Pará o transporte da polpa de bauxita é através de mineroduto, sendo a viscosidade um parâmetro de controle fundamental para o bombeamento do minério. Este estudo ilustra a influência do pH na reologia da polpa por meio da determinação do ponto de carga zero (pHpcz) da bauxita. Foram efetuadas análise granulométrica, microscopia eletrônica de varredura, ensaios potenciométricos testando o cloreto de amônia como eletrólito indiferente e ensaios reológicos em diferentes valores de pH. Os resultados revelaram que o cloreto de amônia pode ser utilizado como eletrólito indiferente para esse tipo de análise e que ocorre a redução da viscosidade em valores de pH distantes do ponto de carga zero.

Uso de nanopartículas de ferro zero na remediação ambiental de águas contaminadas por compostos organoclorados

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size

1. Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2. We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3. Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4. A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modeling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark–recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5. All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6. Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modeling analysis engine for spatial and habitat-modeling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7. Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of- the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practicing ecologists.

Influence of particle size, density and concentration on bend erosive wear in pneumatic conveyors

Particle concentration is a principal factor that affects erosion rate of solid surfaces under particle impact, such as pipe bends in pneumatic conveyors; it is well known that a reduction in the specific erosion rate occurs under high particle concentrations, a phenomenon referred to as the “shielding effect”. The cause of shielding is believed to be increased likelihood of inter-particulate collisions, the high collision probability between incoming and rebounding particles reducing the frequency and the severity of particle impacts on the target surface. In this study, the effects of particle concentration on erosion of a mild steel bend surface have been investigated in detail using three different particulate materials on an industrial scale pneumatic conveying test rig. The materials were studied so that two had the same particle density but very different particle size, whereas two had very similar particle size but very different particle density. Experimental results confirm the shielding effect due to high particle concentration and show that the particle density has a far more significant influence than the particle size, on the magnitude of the shielding effect. A new method of correcting for change in erosivity of the particles in repeated handling, to take this factor out of the data, has been established, and appears to be successful. Moreover, a novel empirical model of the shielding effects has been used, in term of erosion resistance which appears to decrease linearly when the particle concentration decreases. With the model it is possible to find the specific erosion rate when the particle concentration tends to zero, and conversely predict how the specific erosion rate changes at finite values of particle concentration; this is critical to enable component life to be predicted from erosion tester results, as the variation of the shielding effect with concentration is different in these two scenarios. In addition a previously unreported phenomenon has been recorded, of a particulate material whose erosivity has steadily increased during repeated impacts.

Comparison of energy expenditure, eating pattern and physical activity of grazing and zero-grazing dairy cows at different time points during lactation

An experiment was conducted to determine the effect of grazing versus zero-grazing on energy expenditure (EE), feeding behaviour and physical activity in dairy cows at different stages of lactation. Fourteen Holstein cows were subjected to two treatments in a repeated crossover design with three experimental series (S1, S2, and S3) reflecting increased days in milk (DIM). At the beginning of each series, cows were on average at 38, 94 and 171 (standard deviation (SD) 10.8) DIM, respectively. Each series consisted of two periods containing a 7-d adaptation and a 7-d collection period each. Cows either grazed on pasture for 16–18.5 h per day or were kept in a freestall barn and had ad libitum access to herbage harvested from the same paddock. Herbage intake was estimated using the double alkane technique. On each day of the collection period, EE of one cow in the barn and of one cow on pasture was determined for 6 h by using the 13C bicarbonate dilution technique, with blood sample collection done either manually in the barn or using an automatic sampling system on pasture. Furthermore, during each collection period physical activity and feeding behaviour of cows were recorded over 3 d using pedometers and behaviour recorders. Milk yield decreased with increasing DIM (P<0.001) but was similar with both treatments. Herbage intake was lower (P<0.01) for grazing cows (16.8 kg dry matter (DM)/d) compared to zero-grazing cows (18.9 kg DM/d). The lowest (P<0.001) intake was observed in S1 and similar intakes were observed in S2 and S3. Within the 6-h measurement period, grazing cows expended 19% more (P<0.001) energy (319 versus 269 kJ/kg metabolic body size (BW0.75)) than zero-grazing cows and differences in EE did not change with increasing DIM. Grazing cows spent proportionally more (P<0.001) time walking and less time standing (P<0.001) and lying (P<0.05) than zero-grazing cows. The proportion of time spent eating was greater (P<0.001) and that of time spent ruminating was lower (P<0.05) for grazing cows compared to zero-grazing cows. In conclusion, lower feed intake along with the unchanged milk production indicates that grazing cows mobilized body reserves to cover additional energy requirements which were at least partly caused by more physical activity. However, changes in cows׳ behaviour between the considered time points during lactation were too small so that differences in EE remained similar between treatments with increasing DIM.

The impact of increased writing time allotment on the developmental writing skills of intermediate elementary school students

The purpose of this study is to determine which of several treatment groups and/or grades have shown growth when increased writing time allotment has occurred. Third, fourth and fifth grade students identified as Gifted, Learning Disabled, and Limited English Proficient enrolled in ESOL classes were the 69 subjects.^ All students were allotted at least one hour of writing time, four days a week for the school year of 1994-1995. Writing activities conducted during the school year involved the full writing process, including prewriting, drafting, revising, and editing. Pretests and posttests were administered across the grade levels at a designated period of time using the same administration procedures as the Florida Writing Assessment Program. Three teachers rated each sample on a scale of zero to three.^ The results of the oneway ANOVA indicated that the three raters did not score the pretests and posttests significantly different from each other. A single group pretest-posttest experimental design was used on the three groups. The results of the Gifted group revealed that the Gifted C subgroup (Gifted Behavioral) appeared to have averaged a higher gain score than both the Gifted A and Gifted B subgroups. For the four subgroups of the LD group, no distinct pattern was evident. The Group C subgroup (ADD) appeared to have scored lower than the other three subgroup although their mean IQ score was higher than the others LD subgroups. Comparisons were difficult to make among the four ESOL subgroups due to low subjects and/or scores. Qualitative analyses were also conducted using semi-structured interviews with the Gifted, Learning Disabled, and ESOL teachers. All believed the additional instructional time spent on writing made the difference in the increased writing scores.^ The study indicated that time alone is not a significant factor in developing accomplished writers. Direct instruction perhaps in a specific strategy or skill may lead to significant results. ^

Efficient numerical methods for the random-field Ising model: Finite-size scaling, reweighting extrapolation, and computation of response functions

It was recently shown [Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 227201 (2013)] that the critical behavior of the random-field Ising model in three dimensions is ruled by a single universality class. This conclusion was reached only after a proper taming of the large scaling corrections of the model by applying a combined approach of various techniques, coming from the zero-and positive-temperature toolboxes of statistical physics. In the present contribution we provide a detailed description of this combined scheme, explaining in detail the zero-temperature numerical scheme and developing the generalized fluctuation-dissipation formula that allowed us to compute connected and disconnected correlation functions of the model. We discuss the error evolution of our method and we illustrate the infinite limit-size extrapolation of several observables within phenomenological renormalization. We present an extension of the quotients method that allows us to obtain estimates of the critical exponent a of the specific heat of the model via the scaling of the bond energy and we discuss the self-averaging properties of the system and the algorithmic aspects of the maximum-flow algorithm used.