On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications.

Development of a wind gust model to estimate gust speeds and their return periods

Spatially dense observations of gust speeds are necessary for various applications, but their availability is limited in space and time. This work presents an approach to help to overcome this problem. The main objective is the generation of synthetic wind gust velocities. With this aim, theoretical wind and gust distributions are estimated from 10 yr of hourly observations collected at 123 synoptic weather stations provided by the German Weather Service. As pre-processing, an exposure correction is applied on measurements of the mean wind velocity to reduce the influence of local urban and topographic effects. The wind gust model is built as a transfer function between distribution parameters of wind and gust velocities. The aim of this procedure is to estimate the parameters of gusts at stations where only wind speed data is available. These parameters can be used to generate synthetic gusts, which can improve the accuracy of return periods at test sites with a lack of observations. The second objective is to determine return periods much longer than the nominal length of the original time series by considering extreme value statistics. Estimates for both local maximum return periods and average return periods for single historical events are provided. The comparison of maximum and average return periods shows that even storms with short average return periods may lead to local wind gusts with return periods of several decades. Despite uncertainties caused by the short length of the observational records, the method leads to consistent results, enabling a wide range of possible applications.

A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

Abstract We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.

The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory: an open meteorological test bed and challenges of the smart city

Existing urban meteorological networks have an important role to play as test beds for inexpensive and more sustainable measurement techniques that are now becoming possible in our increasingly smart cities. The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory (BUCL) is a near-real-time, high-resolution urban meteorological network (UMN) of automatic weather stations and inexpensive, nonstandard air temperature sensors. The network has recently been implemented with an initial focus on monitoring urban heat, infrastructure, and health applications. A number of UMNs exist worldwide; however, BUCL is novel in its density, the low-cost nature of the sensors, and the use of proprietary Wi-Fi networks. This paper provides an overview of the logistical aspects of implementing a UMN test bed at such a density, including selecting appropriate urban sites; testing and calibrating low-cost, nonstandard equipment; implementing strict quality-assurance/quality-control mechanisms (including metadata); and utilizing preexisting Wi-Fi networks to transmit data. Also included are visualizations of data collected by the network, including data from the July 2013 U.K. heatwave as well as highlighting potential applications. The paper is an open invitation to use the facility as a test bed for evaluating models and/or other nonstandard observation techniques such as those generated via crowdsourcing techniques.

The role of evaporating showers in the transfer of sting-jet momentum to the surface

The most damaging winds in a severe extratropical cyclone often occur just ahead of the evaporating ends of cloud filaments emanating from the so-called cloud head. These winds are associated with low-level jets (LLJs), sometimes occurring just above the boundary layer. The question then arises as to how the high momentum is transferred to the surface. An opportunity to address this question arose when the severe ‘St Jude's Day’ windstorm travelled across southern England on 28 October 2013. We have carried out a mesoanalysis of a network of 1 min resolution automatic weather stations and high-resolution Doppler radar scans from the sensitive S-band Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar (CAMRa), along with satellite and radar network imagery and numerical weather prediction products. We show that, although the damaging winds occurred in a relatively dry region of the cyclone, there was evidence within the LLJ of abundant precipitation residues from shallow convective clouds that were evaporating in a localized region of descent. We find that pockets of high momentum were transported towards the surface by the few remaining actively precipitating convective clouds within the LLJ and also by precipitation-free convection in the boundary layer that was able to entrain evaporatively cooled air from the LLJ. The boundary-layer convection was organized in along-wind rolls separated by 500 to about 3000 m, the spacing varying according to the vertical extent of the convection. The spacing was greatest where the strongest winds penetrated to the surface. A run with a medium-resolution version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was able to reproduce the properties of the observed LLJ. It confirmed the LLJ to be a sting jet, which descended over the leading edge of a weaker cold-conveyor-belt jet.

Jämförelse av två system för att bedöma vinter väglag : Ett nytt system i utvecklingen för att säkra Sveriges vägar

Trafikverket, är den statliga verksamhet som har hand om alla Sveriges vägar och järnvägar har den så kallade nollvisionen som ett huvudmål. Tanken bakom nollvisionen är att de som använder vägarna skall vara säkra och inte komma till skada. En del av uppfyllandet av detta mål är att Trafikverket ger ut korttidsprognoser för väglag och körförhållande. I nuläget så används ett mycket manuellt systemet som heter NTIS, men man håller på att utveckla det nya automatiska systemet RCC som skall kunna ta fram korttidsprognoser baserat på olika former av data, t.ex. data från väderstationer. Syftet med denna studie är att utvärdera hur väl de två olika systemen utför en korttidsprognos och jämföra de mot varandra, samt verkligheten. Denna studie gjordes i form av en förklarande fallstudie. Som datainsamling används dokument i olika former och analysen var kvantitativ då resultatet av utvärdering ger olika procenttal av hur rätt respektive system har. Under undersökningen gång så kom vi fram till att båda systemen hade sina fördelar och nackdelar. T.ex. så det gamla NTIS systemet fortfarande bäst på isigt och moddigt väglag. Medans det nya RCC systemet hade sina egna fördelar, t.ex. snöigt väglag och vått väglag. Samt så hade RCC en klar fördel med sin rapporteringstid, vilket var ett problem man såg med NTIS. Resultat var som sagt ett procenttal av hur rätt de två olika systemen hade, men även förslag till förbättringar. T.ex. hur man skulle kunna ändra RCC regler för bättre resultat.

Meteomap: Generation Of Meteorological Variables For Distributed Physically-Based Hydrological Modeling

Distributed energy and water balance models require time-series surfaces of the meteorological variables involved in hydrological processes. Most of the hydrological GIS-based models apply simple interpolation techniques to extrapolate the point scale values registered at weather stations at a watershed scale. In mountainous areas, where the monitoring network ineffectively covers the complex terrain heterogeneity, simple geostatistical methods for spatial interpolation are not always representative enough, and algorithms that explicitly or implicitly account for the features creating strong local gradients in the meteorological variables must be applied. Originally developed as a meteorological pre-processing tool for a complete hydrological model (WiMMed), MeteoMap has become an independent software. The individual interpolation algorithms used to approximate the spatial distribution of each meteorological variable were carefully selected taking into account both, the specific variable being mapped, and the common lack of input data from Mediterranean mountainous areas. They include corrections with height for both rainfall and temperature (Herrero et al., 2007), and topographic corrections for solar radiation (Aguilar et al., 2010). MeteoMap is a GIS-based freeware upon registration. Input data include weather station records and topographic data and the output consists of tables and maps of the meteorological variables at hourly, daily, predefined rainfall event duration or annual scales. It offers its own pre and post-processing tools, including video outlook, map printing and the possibility of exporting the maps to images or ASCII ArcGIS formats. This study presents the friendly user interface of the software and shows some case studies with applications to hydrological modeling.

Spatial Assessment of Indices for Characterizing the Erosive Force of Rainfall in El Salvador Republic

Soil erosion data in El Salvador Republic are scarce and there is no rainfall erosivity map for this region. Considering that rainfall erosivity is an important guide for planning soil erosion control practices, a spatial assessment of indices for characterizing the erosive force of rainfall in El Salvador Republic was carried out. Using pluviometric records from 25 weather stations, we applied two methods: erosivity index equation and the Fournier index. In all study area, the rainiest period is from May to November. Annual values of erosivity index ranged from 7,196 to 17,856 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) year(-1) and the Fournier index ranged from 52.9 to 110.0 mm. The erosivity map showed that the study area can be broadly divided into three major erosion risk zones, and the Fournier index map was divided into four zones. Both methods revealed that the erosive force is severe in all study area and presented significant spatial correlation with each other. The erosive force in the country is concentrated mainly from May to November.

Dowscaling estocástico para extremos climáticos via interpolação espacial

Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particulary extreme weather conditions. However, for lead times of about a small number of days, they provide reliable forecast of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the subscale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on prior physical reasoning establishes posterior statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. Here we present the development and application of such a statistical model calibration on the besis of extreme value theory, in order to derive probabilistic forecast for extreme local temperature. The dowscaling applies to NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, in order to derive estimates of daily temperature at Brazilian northeastern region weather stations

Zoneamento agroclimático de nogueira-macadâmia para o Brasil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Intercontinental Differences in the Abundance of Solenopsis Fire Ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): Escape from Natural Enemies?

The absence of natural enemies often allows exotic pests to reach densities that are much higher than normally occur in their native habitats. When Solenopsis fire ants were introduced into the United States, their numerous natural enemies were left behind in South America. To compare intercontinental fire ant densities, we selected 13 areas in South America and another 12 areas in North America. Sample areas were paired with weather stations and distributed across a broad range of climatic conditions. In each area, we measured fire ant densities at 5 preselected roadside sites that were at least 5 km apart. At each site, we also measured foraging activity, checked for polygyne colonies, and recorded various kinds of environmental data. In most areas, we also measured fire ant densities in lawns and grazing land. Fire ant populations along roadsides in North America were 4-7 times higher than fire ant populations in South America. Similar intercontinental differences were found in lawns and on grazing lands. These intercontinental differences in fire ant abundance were not associated with sampling conditions, seasonal variability, habitat differences, or the frequency of polygyny. Although several correlations were found with long-term weather conditions, careful inspection of the data suggests that these correlations were probably more coincidental than causal. Cultural differences in roadside maintenance may explain some of the intercontinental differences in fire ant abundance, but they did not account for equivalent intercontinental differences in grazing land and mowed lawns. Bait tests showed that competition with other ants was much more important in South America; however, we were not able to determine whether this was a major cause of intercontinental differences or largely a consequence of other factors such as the numerous pathogens and parasites that are found in South America. Because this study was correlational, we were unable to determine the cause(s) of the large intercontinental difference in fire ant abundance that we observed. However, we were able to largely exclude a number of possible explanations for the differences, including sampling, season, polygyny, climate, and aspects of habitat. By a process of elimination, escape from natural enemies remains among the most likely explanations for the unusually high densities of fire ants found in North America.

Avaliação de duas estações meteorológicas automatizadas, para estimativa diária da evapotranspiração de referência obtida pelo método de penman-monteith

The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare measurements and estimates from Davis and Campbell Scientific Instruments in two automatic weather stations. Integrity of meteorological data for estimates of evapotranspiration of reference crop (ETo) from both stations was also evaluated. The following meteorological data were evaluated: air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, precipitation, net radiation and global solar radiation. The Penman-Monteith reference method to estimate ETo was evaluated daily. The weather stations were set up in an experimental area of the Rural Engineering Department-FACV/ UNESP, in Jaboticabal, State of Sao Paulo. Data were collected daily and statistical analysis was performed using linear regression analysis. The integrity of meteorological data to estimate ETo was evaluated. The results of the study in the stations using linear regression analysis showed that daily estimates for ETo had acceptable differences. The technique which evaluates the integrity of meteorological data revealed that data of relative humidity from both stations and of precipitation using Campbell Instruments were not good.

Avaliação dos dados decendiais de precipitação e temperatura máxima e mínima do ar simulados pelo modelo ECMWF para o estado de São Paulo

The weather and climate has a direct influence in agriculture, it affects all stages of farming, since soil preparation to harvest. Meteorological data derived from automatic or conventional weather stations are used to monitor these effects. These meteorological data has problems like difficulty of data access and low density of meteorological stations in Brazil. Meteorological data from atmospheric models, such as ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) can be an alternative. Thus, the aim of this study was to compare 10-day period precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature data from the ECMWF model with interpolated maps from 33 weather stations in Sao Paulo state between 2005 and 2010 and generate statistical maps pixel by pixel. Statistical index showed spatially satisfactory (most of the results with R 2 > 0.60, d > 0.7, RMSE < 5°C and < 50 mm; Es < 5°C and < 24 mm) in period and ECMWF model can be recommended for use in the Sao Paulo state.

Ferrugem do eucalipto: Planejamento evasivo, estimativa de dano e análise da viabilidade do controle químico

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Proteção de Plantas) - FCA

Utilização de barra auxiliar de pulverização de água para reduzir a deriva de defensivos agrícolas

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Agricultura) - FCA