The missing link of crime analysis: A systematic approach to testing competing hypotheses

Crime analysts have traditionally received little guidance from academic researchers in key tasks in the analysis process, specifically the testing of multiple hypotheses and evaluating evidence in a scientific fashion. This article attempts to fill this gap by outlining a method (the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses) of systematically analysing multiple explanations for crime problems. The method is systematic, avoids many cognitive errors common in analysis, and is explicit. It is argued that the implementation of this approach makes analytic products audit-able, the reasoning underpinning them transparent, and provides intelligence managers a rational professional development tool for individual analysts.

Dental identification and aspects of medico-legal investigations of the Finnish victims of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on 26 December 2004

Tsunami waves of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on 26 December 2004 claimed approximately 230 000 lives and started the biggest identification operation in Interpol's history. The aim of this study was to resolve methods of the identification and results received. The viewpoint is mainly that of forensic odontology, but also includes other means of identification and results of the medico-legal examination performed in Finland. Of the 5395 victims in Thailand, approximately 2 400 were foreigners from 36 nations including 177 Finnish nationals. Additionally, a Finnish woman perished in Sri Lanka and a severely injured man after the evacuation in a hospital. The final numbers of missing persons and dead bodies registered in the Information Management Centre in Phuket,Thailand, were 3 574 ante-mortem (AM) and 3 681 post-mortem (PM) files. The number of identifications by December 2006 was 3 271 or 89% of the victims registered. Of Finnish victims, 172 have been identified in Thailand and 163 repatriated to Finland. One adult and four children are still missing. For AM data, a list of Finnish missing persons including 178 names was published on 30 December 2004. By February 2005 all useful dental AM data were available. Five persons on the list living in Finland lacked records. Based on the AM database, for the children under age 18 years (n=60) dental identification could be established for 12 (20%). The estimated number for adults (n=112) was 96 (86%). The final identification rate, based on PM examinations in Finland, was 14 (25%) for children (n= 56) and 98 (90%) for adults (n= 109). The number of Finnish victims identified by dental methods, 112 (68%), was high compared to all examined in Thailand (43%). DNA was applied for 26 Finnish children and for 6 adults, fingerprints for 24 and 7, respectively. In 12 cases two methods were applied. Every victim (n=165) underwent in Finland a medico-legal investigation including an autopsy with sampling specimens for DNA, the toxicological and histological investigation. Digital radiographs and computed tomography were taken of the whole body to verify autopsy findings and bring out changes caused by trauma, autolysis, and sampling for DNA in Thailand. Data for identification purposes were also noted. Submersion was the cause of death for 101 of 109 adults (92.7%), and trauma for 8 (7.3%). Injuries were 33 times contributing factors for submersion and 3 times for trauma-based death. Submersion was the cause of death for 51 (92.7%) children and trauma for 4 (7.3%). Injuries were in 3 cases contributing factors in submersion and once in trauma-based death. The success of the dental identification of Finnish victims is mainly based on careful registration of dental records, and on an education program from 1999 in forensic odontology.

Victims of the White War or Rebellions of the Green Revolution? Bolivian Indigenous Women Prisoners' Position in the "War on Drugs" Explored through a Criminological Gaze

Tässä tutkielmassa tarkastellaan Bolivialaisten naisvankien (alkuperäisväestön) ja globaalin huumesodan ("War on Drugs") välistä yhteyttä. Keskustelu sijoitetaan laajemmin kokan viljelyn politiikkaan ja alkuperäisväestön kulttuuriin. Kokaa viljeleviä köyhiä maalaisia, joista huomattava osa on naisia, on vangittu Boliviassa kiihtyvää tahtia viime vuosikymmeninä. Moni naisista on kokan tuotannossa ja kaupassa mukana, sillä se on monesti ainoa keino taloudelliseen selviämiseen. Yleisesti ottaen naisvangit ja naisrikolliset ovat marginaalinen ilmiö. Kansainvälisesti tarkasteltuna naisvankien suhteellinen osuus koko vankilaväestöstä on noin 5,2 % (keskiarvo). Boliviassa osuus on vaihdellut 6,1 %:n ja 17,1 %:n välillä vuosina 2000-2008. Naisvankien määrä yleisesti ottaen on ollut rajussa kasvussa, suurin syy naisten vangitsemiseen on huumausaineisiin liittyvät rikokset. Näyttää myös siltä että vähemmistöt ja etnisen taustan omaavat henkilöt ovat yliedustettuina vankilaväestössä. Bolivia seuraa tätä kansainvälistä trendiä. Tämä tutkielma on rajattu kysymyksiin Bolivian intiaaniperäisten naisten osuudesta maan huumerikollisuudessa, sekä heidän suhteellisen korkeaa vangitsemisastetta selittäviin yhteiskunnallisiin tekijöihin. Kysymykset sukupuolesta, etnisyydestä ja kokan viljelyn politiikasta ovat keskiössä. Yleisiä kriminologisia teorioita peilataan kriittisesti suhteessa aineistoon ja Bolivian kontekstiin. Huumesodan ja Bolivian ankaran huumelainsäädännön seurauksista keskustellaan kriittisesti, sekä pohditaan köyhän alkuperäisväestön massavangitsemisen tarpeellisuutta. Tutkimuskysymykseni ovat: mitkä tekijät selittävät kohtuullisen korkean intiaaniperäisten naisvankien määrän Boliviassa, ja mikä on heidän asemansa globaalissa huumesodassa? Tutkielmassa on analysoitu kvantitatiivista ja kvalitatiivista aineistoa. Päälähteenä on ollut Bolivian tilastokeskuksen tuottamat rikostilastot. Tutkielman tärkeimpänä löydöksenä voidaan pitää havaintoa, että vastoin tiettyjä olettamuksia, intiaaniperäiset naiset ovat hyvinkin aktiivisia perinteisesti miehisiksi käsitetyillä aloilla kuten rikollisuudessa ja politiikassa. Tutkielmassa osoitetaan myös, että pidätysten määrät ovat moninkertaistuneet muutamassa vuosikymmenessä. Koska kokan viljelyssä on kyse pääasiallisesti taloudellisesta toimeentulosta, tämä tutkielma kysyy, onko hengissä pysyminen rikos?

Victims' rights in Ireland: influences, illusions and impacts

Following international trends victims of crime in Ireland have increasingly become a source of political, policy and to a lesser extent academic concern. Although it is assumed that the Irish victims’ rights movement is having a profound impact on the criminal justice system there are very few studies addressing this assumption or the genesis of the Irish movement. At the time a victims’ rights movement was established in Ireland there were movements already established in the U.S. and Britain. To determine which model Ireland followed, if any, in establishing its movement a comparative analysis of the emergence of the victims’ rights movements in these three common law jurisdictions was undertaken. This research examines possible victim policy transfer to test the transfer route perception that the victims’ movement began in the U.S., was transferred into Britain and then onto Ireland. At the same time that the victims’ rights movements were emerging in the U.S., Britain and Ireland, and asserting pressure on their national governments for beneficial changes for victims of crime, international organisations such as the U.N. and Council of Europe were being pressured by victims’ rights groups into introducing victim centered instruments of guidance and best practice for member states. Eventually the E.U. became involved and enacted a binding instrument in 2001. These victim centered instruments provide legal and service provision rights to Irish victims of crime, but they do not generate much academic interest. This research, in addition to providing a detailed account of the victim centered instruments, analyses the jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights, and identifies and analyses the primary victim centered statutory modifications and case law in Ireland over the past three decades. Lastly, the current law and practices in Ireland are evaluated against Ireland’s obligations under international and E.U. law.

Victims of infanticide and conspecific bite wounding in a female-dominant primate: a long-term study.

The aggression animals receive from conspecifics varies between individuals across their lifetime. As poignantly evidenced by infanticide, for example, aggression can have dramatic fitness consequences. Nevertheless, we understand little about the sources of variation in received aggression, particularly in females. Using a female-dominant species renowned for aggressivity in both sexes, we tested for potential social, demographic, and genetic patterns in the frequency with which animals were wounded by conspecifics. Our study included 243 captive, ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta), followed from infancy to adulthood over a 35-year time span. We extracted injury, social, and life-history information from colony records and calculated neutral heterozygosity for a subset of animals, as an estimate of genetic diversity. Focusing on victims rather than aggressors, we used General Linear Models to explain bite-wound patterns at different life stages. In infancy, maternal age best predicted wounds received, as infants born to young mothers were the most frequent infanticide victims. In adulthood, sex best predicted wounds received, as males were three times more likely than females to be seriously injured. No relation emerged between wounds received and the other variables studied. Beyond the generally expected costs of adult male intrasexual aggression, we suggest possible additive costs associated with female-dominant societies - those suffered by young mothers engaged in aggressive disputes and those suffered by adult males aggressively targeted by both sexes. We propose that infanticide in lemurs may be a costly by-product of aggressively mediated, female social dominance. Accordingly, the benefits of female behavioral 'masculinization' accrued to females through priority of access to resources, may be partially offset by early costs in reproductive success. Understanding the factors that influence lifetime patterns of conspecific wounding is critical to evaluating the fitness costs associated with social living; however, these costs may vary substantially between societies.

'Travails of Truth: Achieving Justice for Victims of Impunity in Nigeria”'

Following its transition to democracy from an authoritarian military rule marked by gross violations of human rights, Nigeria established the Human Rights Violations Investigations Commission (HRVIC) in 1999. This paper critically examines the contributions of the HRVIC, popularly known as the ‘Oputa Panel,’ to the field of transitional justice and the rule of law. It sets out the process of establishing the Commission, its mandate and how this mandate was interpreted during the course of the Commission’s work. The challenges faced by the Oputa Panel, particularly those that relate to its legal status and relationship with the judiciary, are analyzed in an attempt to draw useful guidelines from these challenges for other truth commissions. Recourse by powerful individuals to the judicial process in a bid to shield themselves from the HRVIC merits particular review as it raises questions regarding the transformation of the judiciary and the rule of law in the wake of an authoritarian regime.

How could Human Rights Law be used by the Courts to assist Victims of Domestic Violence? A Comparative Study

It has been increasingly recognised in recent years that domestic violence constitutes a human rights issue. This article seeks to shed light on the question of how human rights law may be used in the area of domestic violence through the medium of a litigation strategy. The method used is a comparative assessment of the approaches taken towards gender issues by the Constitutional Courts in three states that have famously dynamic judiciaries- India, South Africa and Canada. A number of the obstacles to the effectiveness of human rights law are also examined.