A lesson from cyclone Larry: An untold story of the success of good coastal planning

When tropical cyclone Larry crossed the Queensland coast on 20 March 2006, commercial, recreational and naval vessels in the port of Cairns, 60 km north of the eye of the cyclone and others closer to the eye, were protected from the destructive winds by sheltering in deep mangrove creeks in Trinity Inlet and off other coastal rivers. The Trinity Inlet mangroves are protected under the comprehensive multi-use Trinity Inlet Management Plan, agreed by the local and state government agencies (Cairns City Council, the Cairns Port Authority and the Queensland Government). Using this Australian example and one from the town of Palompon in Leyte province, central Philippines, we show how long-term mangrove habitat protection resulting from well-conceived coastal planning can deliver important economic and infrastructure benefits.

Influence of cyclonic winds on the performance of hardwood plantations in tropical north Queensland.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi crossed the far north Queensland coast at Mission Beach on February 3rd, 2011, shattering the regions developing hardwood plantation industry. The cyclone’s path covered the primary areas of hardwood and softwood plantations in this region, causing widespread destruction. The extent of cyclone damage, coupled with the weak international economy has resulted in a severe decline in industry confidence for the future of timber plantations in this region. This report reviews the impacts of Severe TC Yasi on the performance of key hardwood plantation species in north Queensland. It summarises the influence of species, genetics, plantation design, management and age on plantation resilience. The information will contribute to a “Best Practice Guide for Timber Plantations in Cyclonic Areas” to be produced by Timber Queensland. This will assist companies with future plantation investment decisions in the tropical cyclone zone. 2 200 trees were assessed, including 44 species at 32 localities located from Daintree to Townsville. Data are also presented for a post-cyclone assessment of 5 900 African mahogany trees on four sites in the Ingham region. A report prepared for the Timber Queensland project: Best Practice Guide for Timber Plantations in Cyclonic Areas.

On the epochal variation of intensity of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea

During recent years, an increase in the intensity of pre-monsoon tropical cyclones (TCs) is observed over the Arabian Sea. This study suggests that this increase is due to epochal variability in the intensity of TCs and is associated with epochal variability in the storm-ambient vertical wind shear and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP). There is a significant increase (0.53kJcm(-2)year(-1)) of TCHP during recent years. The warmer upper ocean helps TCs to sustain or increase their intensity by an uninterrupted supply of sensible and latent heat fluxes from the ocean surface to the atmosphere.

Environmental Influences on the Frequency and Intensity of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclones genesis, movement and intensification are highly dependent on its environment both oceanic and atmospheric. This thesis has made a detailed study on the environmental factors related to tropical cyclones of North Indian Ocean basin. This ocean basin has produced only 6% of the global tropical cyclones annually but it has caused maximum loss of human life associated with the strong winds, heavy rain and particularly storm surges that accompany severe cyclones as they strike the heavily populated coastal areas. Atmospheric factors studied in the thesis are the moisture content of the atmosphere, instability of the atmosphere that produces thunderstorms which are the main source of energy for the tropical cyclone, vertical wind shear to which cyclones are highly sensitive and the Sub-Tropical westerly Jetsteram and its Asian high speed center. The oceanic parameters studied are sea surface temperature and heat storage in the top layer of the ocean. A major portion of the thesis has dealt with the three temporal variabilities of tropical cyclone frequency namely intra-seasonal (mainly the influence of Madden Julian Oscillation), inter- annual (the relation with El Nino Southern Oscillation) and decadal variabilities. Regarding decadal variability, a prominent four decade oscillation in the frequency of both tropical cyclones and monsoon depressions unique to the Indian Ocean basin has been brought out. The thesis consists of 9 chapters.

Variations of surface boundary layer parameters associated with Cyclone Gonu over the Arabian Sea using QuikSCAT data

This study attempted to quantify the variations of the surface marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) parameters associated with the tropical Cyclone Gonu formed over the Arabian Sea during 30 May–7 June 2007 (just after the monsoon onset). These characteristics were evaluated in terms of surface wind, drag coefficient, wind stress, horizontal divergence, and frictional velocity using 0.5◦ × 0.5◦ resolution Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind products. The variation of these different surface boundary layer parameters was studied for three defined cyclone life stages: prior to the formation, during, and after the cyclone passage. Drastic variations of the MABL parameters during the passage of the cyclone were observed. The wind strength increased from 12 to 22 m s−1 in association with different stages of Gonu. Frictional velocity increased from a value of 0.1–0.6 m s−1 during the formative stage of the system to a high value of 0.3–1.4 m s−1 during the mature stage. Drag coefficient varied from 1.5 × 10−3 to 2.5 × 10−3 during the occurrence of Gonu. Wind stress values varied from 0.4 to 1.1 N m−2. Wind stress curl values varied from 10 × 10−7 to 45 × 10−7 N m−3. Generally, convergent winds prevailed with the numerical value of divergence varying from 0 to –4 × 10−5 s−1. Maximum variations of the wind parameters were found in the wall cloud region of the cyclone. The parameters returned to normally observed values in 1–3 days after the cyclone passage

West African storm tracks and their relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclones

The automatic tracking technique used by Thorncroft and Hodges (2001) has been used to identify coherent vorticity structures at 850hPa over West Africa and the tropical Atlantic in the ECMWF 40-year reanalysis. The presence of two dominant source regions, north and south of 15ºN over West Africa, for storm tracks over the Atlantic was confirmed. Results show that the southern storm track provides most of the storms that reach the main development region where most tropical cyclones develop. There exists marked seasonal variability in location and intensity of the storms leaving the West African coast, which may influence the likelihood of downstream intensification and longevity. There exists considerable year-to-year variability in the number of West African storm tracks, both in numbers over the land and continuing out over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. While the low-frequency variability is well correlated with Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, West African rainfall and SSTs, the interannual variability is found to be uncorrelated with these. In contrast, variance of the 2-6-day-filtered meridional wind, which provides a synoptic-scale measure of African Easterly Wave activity, shows a significant, positive correlation with tropical cyclone activity at interannual timescales.

Analysis of the eyes formed in simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows

The structure and size of the eyes generated in numerically simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows have been studied. A primitive-equation numerical model simulated systems in which the structures of the eyes formed were consistent with available observations. Whilst the tropical cyclone eyes generated were usually rapidly rotating, it appeared impossible for an eye formed in a system with a polar environment to develop this type of structure. The polar low eyes were found to be unable to warm through the subsidence of air with high values of potential temperature, as the environment was approximately statically neutral. Factors affecting the size of the eye were investigated through a series of controlled experiments. In mature tropical cyclone systems the size of the eye was insensitive to small changes in initial conditions, surface friction and latent and sensible heating from the ocean. In contrast, the eye size was strongly dependent on these parameters in the mature polar lows. Consistent with the findings, a mechanism is proposed in which the size of the eye in simulated polar lows is controlled by the strength of subsidence within it.

Tropical Cyclones in a hieararchy of climate models of increasing resolution

Tropical Cyclone (TC) is normally not studied at the individual level with Global Climate Models (GCMs), because the coarse grid spacing is often deemed insufficient for a realistic representation of the basic underlying processes. GCMs are indeed routinely deployed at low resolution, in order to enable sufficiently long integrations, which means that only large-scale TC proxies are diagnosed. A new class of GCMs is emerging, however, which is capable of simulating TC-type vortexes by retaining a horizontal resolution similar to that of operational NWP GCMs; their integration on the latest supercomputers enables the completion of long-term integrations. The UK-Japan Climate Collaboration and the UK-HiGEM projects have developed climate GCMs which can be run routinely for decades (with grid spacing of 60 km) or centuries (with grid spacing of 90 km); when coupled to the ocean GCM, a mesh of 1/3 degrees provides eddy-permitting resolution. The 90 km resolution model has been developed entirely by the UK-HiGEM consortium (together with its 1/3 degree ocean component); the 60 km atmospheric GCM has been developed by UJCC, in collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre.

Response of tropical cyclones to idealized climate change experiments in a global high resolution coupled general circulation model

We present an assessment of how tropical cyclone activity might change due to the influence of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, using the UK’s High Resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) with N144 resolution (~90 km in the atmosphere and ~40 km in the ocean). Tropical cyclones are identified using a feature tracking algorithm applied to model output. Tropical cyclones from idealized 30-year 2×CO2 (2CO2) and 4×CO2 (4CO2) simulations are compared to those identified in a 150-year present-day simulation, which is separated into a 5-member ensemble of 30-year integrations. Tropical cyclones are shown to decrease in frequency globally by 9% in the 2CO2 and 26% in the 4CO2. Tropical cyclones only become more intese in the 4CO2, however uncoupled time slice experiments reveal an increase in intensity in the 2CO2. An investigation into the large-scale environmental conditions, known to influence tropical cyclone activity in the main development regions, is used to determine the response of tropical cyclone activity to increased atmospheric CO2. A weaker Walker circulation and a reduction in zonally averaged regions of updrafts lead to a shift in the location of tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere. A decrease in mean ascent at 500 hPa contributes to the reduction of tropical cyclones in the 2CO2 in most basins. The larger reduction of tropical cyclones in the 4CO2 arises from further reduction of mean ascent at 500 hPa and a large enhancement of vertical wind shear, especially in the southern hemisphere, North Atlantic and North East Pacific.

An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming

Model studies do not agree on future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity on regional scales. We aim to shed further light on the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonality of TCs that society can expect at the end of the twenty-first century in the Southern hemisphere (SH). Therefore, we investigate TC changes simulated by the atmospheric model ECHAM5 with T213 (~60 km) horizontal resolution. We identify TCs in present-day (20C; 1969–1990) and future (21C; 2069–2100) time slice simulations, using a tracking algorithm based on vorticity at 850 hPa. In contrast to the Northern hemisphere (NH), where tropical storm numbers reduce by 6 %, there is a more dramatic 22 % reduction in the SH, mainly in the South Indian Ocean. While an increase of static stability in 21C may partly explain the reduction in tropical storm numbers, stabilization cannot alone explain the larger SH drop. Large-scale circulation changes associated with a weakening of the Tropical Walker Circulation are hypothesized to cause the strong decrease of cyclones in the South Indian Ocean. In contrast the decrease found over the South Pacific appears to be partly related to increased vertical wind shear, which is possibly associated with an enhanced meridional sea surface temperature gradient. We find the main difference between the hemispheres in changes of the tropical cyclones of intermediate strength with an increase in the NH and a decrease in the SH. In both hemispheres the frequency of the strongest storms increases and the frequency of the weakest storms decreases, although the increase in SH intense storms is marginal.

Simulation of the global ENSO–Tropical cyclone teleconnection by a high-resolution coupled general circulation model

This study assesses the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global tropical cyclone activity using a 150-yr-long integration with a high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model [High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM); with N144 resolution: ~90 km in the atmosphere and ~40 km in the ocean]. Tropical cyclone activity is compared to an atmosphere-only simulation using the atmospheric component of HiGEM (HiGAM). Observations of tropical cyclones in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and tropical cyclones identified in the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) are used to validate the models. Composite anomalies of tropical cyclone activity in El Niño and La Niña years are used. HiGEM is able to capture the shift in tropical cyclone locations to ENSO in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. However, HiGEM does not capture the expected ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection in the North Atlantic. HiGAM shows more skill in simulating the global ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection; however, variability in the Pacific is overpronounced. HiGAM is able to capture the ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection in the North Atlantic more accurately than HiGEM. An investigation into the large-scale environmental conditions, known to influence tropical cyclone activity, is used to further understand the response of tropical cyclone activity to ENSO in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific. The vertical wind shear response over the Caribbean is not captured in HiGEM compared to HiGAM and ERA-Interim. Biases in the mean ascent at 500 hPa in HiGEM remain in HiGAM over the western North Pacific; however, a more realistic low-level vorticity in HiGAM results in a more accurate ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection.

Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high resolution global climate models

The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) project, using PRACE (Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model GA3 configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km) and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and North West Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African Easterly Waves and the African Easterly Jet. However, the intensity of the modelled tropical cyclones as measured by 10 m wind speed remain weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50% in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, while in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic, and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the Central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more stronger storms

Mechanisms Governing the Eyewall Replacement Cycle in Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclones

Eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is frequently observed during the evolution of intensifying Tropical Cyclones (TCs). Although intensely studied in recent years, the underlying mechanisms of ERC are still poorly understood, and the forecast of ERC remains a great challenge. To advance our understanding of ERC and provide insights in improvement of numerical forecast of ERC, a series of numerical simulations is performed to investigate ERCs in TC-like vortices on a f-plane. The simulated ERCs possess key features similar to those observed in real TCs including the formation of a secondary tangential wind maximum associated with the outer eyewall. The Sawyer-Eliassen equation and tangential momentum budget analyses are performed to diagnose the mechanisms underlying the secondary eyewall formation (SEF) and ERC. Our diagnoses reveal crucial roles of outer rainband heating in governing the formation and development of the secondary tangential wind maximum and demonstrate that the outer rainband convection must reach a critical strength relative to the eyewall before SEF and the subsequent ERC can occur. A positive feedback among low-level convection, acceleration of tangential winds in the boundary layer, and surface evaporation that leads to the development of ERC and a mechanism for the demise of inner eyewall that involves interaction between the transverse circulations induced by eyewall and outer rainband convection are proposed. The tangential momentum budget indicates that the net tendency of tangential wind is a small residual resultant from a large cancellation between tendencies induced by the resolved and sub-grid scale (SGS) processes. The large SGS contribution to the tangential wind budget explains different characteristics of ERC shown in previous numerical studies and poses a great challenge for a timely correct forecast of ERC. The sensitivity experiments show that ERCs are strongly subjected to model physics, vortex radial structure and background wind. The impact of model physics on ERC can be well understood with the interaction among eyewall/outer rainband heating, radilal inflow in the boundary layer, surface layer turbulent processes, and shallow convection in the moat. However, further investigations are needed to fully understand the exhibited sensitivities of ERC to vortex radial structure and background wind.

Bouncing back : the role of design in facilitating students to understand and deal with adversity

After state-wide flooding and a category-5 tropical cyclone, three-quarters of the state of Queensland was declared a disaster zone in early 2011. This deluge of adversity had a significant impact on university students, a few weeks prior to the start of the academic semester. The purpose of this paper is to examine the role that design plays in facilitating students to understand and respond to, adversity. The participants of this study were second and fourth year architectural design students at a large Australian University, in Queensland. As a part of their core architectural design studies, students were required to provide architectural responses to the recent catastrophic events in Queensland. Qualitative data was obtained through student surveys, work design work submitted by students and a survey of guests who attending an exhibition of the student work. The results of this research showed that the students produced more than just the required set of architectural drawings, process journals and models, but also recognition of the important role that the affective dimension of the flooding event and the design process played in helping them to both understand and respond to, adversity. They held the ‘real world’ experience and practical aspect of the assessment in higher regard than their typical focus on aesthetics and the making of iconic design. Perhaps most importantly, the students recognised that this process allowed them to have a voice, and a means to respond to adversity through the powerful language of design.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.