Do motor vehicle crashes arise from single or multiple unique risk processes? An inquiry into crash causes and modelling

Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

Measurement of transit network accessibility based on access stop choice behaviour

This research improved the measurement of public transport accessibility by capturing; travellers' behaviour; diversity of public transport mode; and the subjectivity of travellers' decision in the complex transport networks. The results of this research not only highlighted the importance of considering public transport network characteristics but also, revealed the impact of public transport diversity in the modelling of public transport accessibility. The research developed a hybrid discrete choice model with a nested logit structure to treat the correlation among the public transport mode choices and, a logit correction factor to rectify the correlation among the stop choices.

Data mining for telecommunications network log analysis

Telecommunications network management is based on huge amounts of data that are continuously collected from elements and devices from all around the network. The data is monitored and analysed to provide information for decision making in all operation functions. Knowledge discovery and data mining methods can support fast-pace decision making in network operations. In this thesis, I analyse decision making on different levels of network operations. I identify the requirements decision-making sets for knowledge discovery and data mining tools and methods, and I study resources that are available to them. I then propose two methods for augmenting and applying frequent sets to support everyday decision making. The proposed methods are Comprehensive Log Compression for log data summarisation and Queryable Log Compression for semantic compression of log data. Finally I suggest a model for a continuous knowledge discovery process and outline how it can be implemented and integrated to the existing network operations infrastructure.

On the Convergence of Statistical Techniques for Inferring Network Traffic Demands

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study strategies to improve the convergence of a powerful statistical technique based on an Expectation-Maximization iterative algorithm. First we analyze modeling approaches to generating starting points. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we study the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm and compare it against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

A Two-step Statistical Approach for Inferring Network Traffic Demands (Revises Technical Report BUCS-2003-003)

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study a two-step approach for inferring network traffic demands. First we elaborate and evaluate a modeling approach for generating good starting points to be fed to iterative statistical inference techniques. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we evaluate and compare alternative mechanisms for generating starting points and the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

Using CORBA's advanced services to enhance the integrity of QoS management programmable networks

The development of wideband network services and the new network infrastructures to support them have placed much more requirements on current network management systems. Issues such as scalability, integrity and interoperability have become more important. Existing management systems are not flexible enough to support the provision of Quality of Service (QoS) in these dynamic environments. The concept of Programmable Networks has been proposed to address these requirements. Within this framework, CORBA is regarded as a middleware technology that can enable interoperation among the distributed entities founds in Programmable Networks. By using the basic CORBA environment in a heterogeneous network environment, a network manager is able to control remote Network Elements (NEs) in the same way it controls its local resources. Using this approach both the flexibility and intelligence of the overall network management can be improved. This paper proposes the use of two advanced features of CORBA to enhance the QoS management in a Programmable Network environment. The Transaction Service can be used to manage a set of tasks, whenever the management of elements in a network is correlated; and the Concurrency Service can be used to coordinate multiple accesses on the same network resources. It is also shown in this paper that proper use of CORBA can largely reduce the development and administration of network management applications.

Introducing Automated Management Through Iteratively Increased Automation and Indicators

Introducing automation into a managed environment includes significant initial overhead and abstraction, creating a disconnect between the administrator and the system. In order to facilitate the transition to automated management, this paper proposes an approach whereby automation increases gradually, gathering data from the task deployment process. This stored data is analysed to determine the task outcome status and can then be used for comparison against future deployments of the same task and alerting the administrator to deviations from the expected outcome. Using a machinelearning
approach, the automation tool can learn from the administrator's reaction to task failures and eventually react to faults autonomously.

Adaptive Measurement-Based Policy-Driven QoS Management with Fuzzy-Rule-based Resource Allocation

Fixed and wireless networks are increasingly converging towards common connectivity with IP-based core networks. Providing effective end-to-end resource and QoS management in such complex heterogeneous converged network scenarios requires unified, adaptive and scalable solutions to integrate and co-ordinate diverse QoS mechanisms of different access technologies with IP-based QoS. Policy-Based Network Management (PBNM) is one approach that could be employed to address this challenge. Hence, a policy-based framework for end-to-end QoS management in converged networks, CNQF (Converged Networks QoS Management Framework) has been proposed within our project. In this paper, the CNQF architecture, a Java implementation of its prototype and experimental validation of key elements are discussed. We then present a fuzzy-based CNQF resource management approach and study the performance of our implementation with real traffic flows on an experimental testbed. The results demonstrate the efficacy of our resource-adaptive approach for practical PBNM systems

Implementation and Evaluation of Measurement-Based Admission Control Schemes Within a Converged Networks QoS Management Framework

Policy-based network management (PBNM) paradigms provide an effective tool for end-to-end resource
management in converged next generation networks by enabling unified, adaptive and scalable solutions
that integrate and co-ordinate diverse resource management mechanisms associated with heterogeneous
access technologies. In our project, a PBNM framework for end-to-end QoS management in converged
networks is being developed. The framework consists of distributed functional entities managed within a
policy-based infrastructure to provide QoS and resource management in converged networks. Within any
QoS control framework, an effective admission control scheme is essential for maintaining the QoS of
flows present in the network. Measurement based admission control (MBAC) and parameter basedadmission control (PBAC) are two commonly used approaches. This paper presents the implementationand analysis of various measurement-based admission control schemes developed within a Java-based
prototype of our policy-based framework. The evaluation is made with real traffic flows on a Linux-based experimental testbed where the current prototype is deployed. Our results show that unlike with classic MBAC or PBAC only schemes, a hybrid approach that combines both methods can simultaneously result in improved admission control and network utilization efficiency

Gestão de qualidade de serviço baseada em políticas

A evolução observada nas redes de comunicações durante a última década traduziu-se na diversificação de serviços que utilizam a rede, no aumento das taxas de transferência e na massificação da utilização de serviços de acesso à Internet e de comunicações celulares. Durante esta década, várias organizações, das quais se destacam os operadores de telecomunicações, têm dedicado consideráveis esforços no sentido de definir e normalizar arquitecturas de redes de próxima geração. A principal característica deste tipo de rede reside no facto de possuir uma arquitectura modular capaz de fornecer serviços multimédia a clientes de uma rede de acesso com características tecnológicas heterogéneas. Os trabalhos de normalização das arquitecturas de rede NGN têm-se limitado, até ao momento, a especificar detalhes relativos ao funcionamento da rede não tendo ainda sido definida a arquitectura de gestão. Em termos de tecnologias de gestão de redes, foram propostos nas últimas duas décadas novos paradigmas de gestão, novos modelos de dados, novos protocolos de transporte e várias linguagens de definição de informação de gestão. Os modelos de dados têm vindo a ser enriquecidos, os protocolos são mais flexíveis e poderosos, as soluções de gestão oferecem interoperabilidade acrescida e as linguagens permitem definir formatos de configuração mais ricos. Simultaneamente tem crescido a complexidade das soluções de gestão, aumentado a sobrecarga causada pelo aumento de complexidade nos equipamentos bem como nas plataformas computacionais que suportam os sistemas de gestão. O presente trabalho propõe uma solução de gestão para redes NGN capaz de gerir os recursos de rede garantindo Qualidade de Serviço. A solução de gestão proposta inclui uma plataforma de execução de políticas que utiliza os eventos ocorridos na rede para empreender acções de configuração, autonomizando o processo de gestão. Inclui uma avaliação da complexidade de várias tecnologias de gestão estudando a sobrecarga causada pela tecnologia tanto no processo de gestão como na operação da rede. É ainda estudada a escalabilidade das várias tecnologias e analisado o seu comportamento num cenário da rede de um operador de telecomunicações. O trabalho propõe ainda uma metodologia de configuração integrada dos elementos de gestão, através de uma interface de configuração amigável para o administrador do sistema.

Communication between nodes for autonomic and distributed management

Over the last decade, the most widespread approaches for traditional management were based on the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP) or Common Management Information Protocol (CMIP). However, they both have several problems in terms of scalability, due to their centralization characteristics. Although the distributed management approaches exhibit better performance in terms of scalability, they still underperform regarding communication costs, autonomy, extensibility, exibility, robustness, and cooperation between network nodes. The cooperation between network nodes normally requires excessive overheads for synchronization and dissemination of management information in the network. For emerging dynamic and large-scale networking environments, as envisioned in Next Generation Networks (NGNs), exponential growth in the number of network devices and mobile communications and application demands is expected. Thus, a high degree of management automation is an important requirement, along with new mechanisms that promote it optimally and e ciently, taking into account the need for high cooperation between the nodes. Current approaches for self and autonomic management allow the network administrator to manage large areas, performing fast reaction and e ciently facing unexpected problems. The management functionalities should be delegated to a self-organized plane operating within the network, that decrease the network complexity and the control information ow, as opposed to centralized or external servers. This Thesis aims to propose and develop a communication framework for distributed network management which integrates a set of mechanisms for initial communication, exchange of management information, network (re) organization and data dissemination, attempting to meet the autonomic and distributed management requirements posed by NGNs. The mechanisms are lightweight and portable, and they can operate in di erent hardware architectures and include all the requirements to maintain the basis for an e cient communication between nodes in order to ensure autonomic network management. Moreover, those mechanisms were explored in diverse network conditions and events, such as device and link errors, di erent tra c/network loads and requirements. The results obtained through simulation and real experimentation show that the proposed mechanisms provide a lower convergence time, smaller overhead impact in the network, faster dissemination of management information, increase stability and quality of the nodes associations, and enable the support for e cient data information delivery in comparison to the base mechanisms analyzed. Finally, all mechanisms for communication between nodes proposed in this Thesis, that support and distribute the management information and network control functionalities, were devised and developed to operate in completely decentralized scenarios.

Seamless integration of heterogeneous networks in multicast environments

Nowadays, communication environments are already characterized by a myriad of competing and complementary technologies that aim to provide an ubiquitous connectivity service. Next Generation Networks need to hide this heterogeneity by providing a new abstraction level, while simultaneously be aware of the underlying technologies to deliver richer service experiences to the end-user. Moreover, the increasing interest for group-based multimedia services followed by their ever growing resource demands and network dynamics, has been boosting the research towards more scalable and exible network control approaches. The work developed in this Thesis enables such abstraction and exploits the prevailing heterogeneity in favor of a context-aware network management and adaptation. In this scope, we introduce a novel hierarchical control framework with self-management capabilities that enables the concept of Abstract Multiparty Trees (AMTs) to ease the control of multiparty content distribution throughout heterogeneous networks. A thorough evaluation of the proposed multiparty transport control framework was performed in the scope of this Thesis, assessing its bene ts in terms of network selection, delivery tree recon guration and resource savings. Moreover, we developed an analytical study to highlight the scalability of the AMT concept as well as its exibility in large scale networks and group sizes. To prove the feasibility and easy deployment characteristic of the proposed control framework, we implemented a proof-of-concept demonstrator that comprehends the main control procedures conceptually introduced. Its outcomes highlight a good performance of the multiparty content distribution tree control, including its local and global recon guration. In order to endow the AMT concept with the ability to guarantee the best service experience by the end-user, we integrate in the control framework two additional QoE enhancement approaches. The rst employs the concept of Network Coding to improve the robustness of the multiparty content delivery, aiming at mitigating the impact of possible packet losses in the end-user service perception. The second approach relies on a machine learning scheme to autonomously determine at each node the expected QoE towards a certain destination. This knowledge is then used by di erent QoE-aware network management schemes that, jointly, maximize the overall users' QoE. The performance and scalability of the control procedures developed, aided by the context and QoE-aware mechanisms, show the advantages of the AMT concept and the proposed hierarchical control strategy for the multiparty content distribution with enhanced service experience. Moreover we also prove the feasibility of the solution in a practical environment, and provide future research directions that bene t the evolved control framework and make it commercially feasible.

Análise do transporte ferroviário de mercadorias associado à problemática da diferença de bitola entre linhas da rede ferroviária: estudo do caso prático: ligação do porto de Aveiro ao corredor internacional de mercadorias E-80

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil

CAC controlled services sharing a link with connectionless data services in an ATM network: a performance evaluation study

In the B-ISDN there is a provision for four classes of services, all of them supported by a single transport network (the ATM network). Three of these services, the connected oriented (CO) ones, permit connection access control (CAC) but the fourth, the connectionless oriented (CLO) one, does not. Therefore, when CLO service and CO services have to share the same ATM link, a conflict may arise. This is because a bandwidth allocation to obtain maximum statistical gain can damage the contracted ATM quality of service (QOS); and vice versa, in order to guarantee the contracted QOS, the statistical gain have to be sacrificed. The paper presents a performance evaluation study of the influence of the CLO service on a CO service (a circuit emulation service or a variable bit-rate service) when sharing the same link