A comparison of plotless density estimators using Monte Carlo simulation on totally enumerated field data sets

Background: Plotless density estimators are those that are based on distance measures rather than counts per unit area (quadrats or plots) to estimate the density of some usually stationary event, e.g. burrow openings, damage to plant stems, etc. These estimators typically use distance measures between events and from random points to events to derive an estimate of density. The error and bias of these estimators for the various spatial patterns found in nature have been examined using simulated populations only. In this study we investigated eight plotless density estimators to determine which were robust across a wide range of data sets from fully mapped field sites. They covered a wide range of situations including animal damage to rice and corn, nest locations, active rodent burrows and distribution of plants. Monte Carlo simulations were applied to sample the data sets, and in all cases the error of the estimate (measured as relative root mean square error) was reduced with increasing sample size. The method of calculation and ease of use in the field were also used to judge the usefulness of the estimator. Estimators were evaluated in their original published forms, although the variable area transect (VAT) and ordered distance methods have been the subjects of optimization studies. Results: An estimator that was a compound of three basic distance estimators was found to be robust across all spatial patterns for sample sizes of 25 or greater. The same field methodology can be used either with the basic distance formula or the formula used with the Kendall-Moran estimator in which case a reduction in error may be gained for sample sizes less than 25, however, there is no improvement for larger sample sizes. The variable area transect (VAT) method performed moderately well, is easy to use in the field, and its calculations easy to undertake. Conclusion: Plotless density estimators can provide an estimate of density in situations where it would not be practical to layout a plot or quadrat and can in many cases reduce the workload in the field.

The influence of animal mobility on the assumption of uniform distances in aerial line-transect surveys

Line-transect distance sampling is a widely used method for estimating animal density from aerial surveys. Analysis of line-transect distance data usually relies on a requirement that the statistical distribution of distances of animal groups from the transect line is uniform. We show that this requirement is satisfied by the survey design if all other assumptions of distance sampling hold, but it can be violated by consistent survey problems such as responsive movement of the animals towards or away from the observer. We hypothesise that problems with the uniform requirement are unlikely to be encountered for immobile taxa, but might become substantial for species of high mobility. We test evidence for non-uniformity using double-observer distance data from two aerial surveys of five species with a spectrum of mobility capabilities and tendencies. No clear evidence against uniformity was found for crabeater seals or emperor penguins on the pack-ice in East Antarctica, while minor non-uniformity consistent with responsive movement up to 30 m was found for Adelie penguins. Strong evidence of either non-uniformity or a failure of the capture-recapture validating method was found for eastern grey kangaroos and red kangaroos in Queensland.

Sequence variants in three loci influence monocyte counts and erythrocyte volume

Blood cells participate in vital physiological processes, and their numbers are tightly regulated so that homeostasis is maintained. Disruption of key regulatory mechanisms underlies many blood-related Mendelian diseases but also contributes to more common disorders, including atherosclerosis. We searched for quantitative trait loci (QTL) for hematology traits through a whole-genome association study, because these could provide new insights into both hemopoeitic and disease mechanisms. We tested 1.8 million variants for association with 13 hematology traits measured in 6015 individuals from the Australian and Dutch populations. These traits included hemoglobin composition, platelet counts, and red blood cell and white blood cell indices. We identified three regions of strong association that, to our knowledge, have not been previously reported in the literature. The first was located in an intergenic region of chromosome 9q31 near LPAR1, explaining 1.5% of the variation in monocyte counts (best SNP rs7023923, p=8.9x10(-14)). The second locus was located on chromosome 6p21 and associated with mean cell erythrocyte volume (rs12661667, p=1.2x10(-9), 0.7% variance explained) in a region that spanned five genes, including CCND3, a member of the D-cyclin gene family that is involved in hematopoietic stem cell expansion. The third region was also associated with erythrocyte volume and was located in an intergenic region on chromosome 6q24 (rs592423, p=5.3x10(-9), 0.6% variance explained). All three loci replicated in an independent panel of 1543 individuals (p values=0.001, 9.9x10(-5), and 7x10(-5), respectively). The identification of these QTL provides new opportunities for furthering our understanding of the mechanisms regulating hemopoietic cell fate.

Comparison of the reproductive ecology of two sympatric blacktip sharks (Carcharhinus limbatus and Carcharhinus tilstoni) off north-eastern Australia with species identification inferred from vertebral counts

Precaudal vertebral counts were used to distinguish between 237 morphologically similar Carcharhinus limbatus and Carcharhinus tilstoni and were congruent with differences in reproductive ecology between the species. In addition to differing lengths at maturity and adult body size, the two species had asynchronous parturition, were born at different sizes and the relative frequencies of neonates differed in two coastal nursery areas. Despite evidence that hybridization can occur, these differences suggest the species are largely reproductively isolated.

Measurements of partial discharges-corrections to erroneous counts occurring in a cumulative pulse-counting system

The discharge pulse rates at different magnitude levels are often used as criteria for monitoring the partial-discharge aging of insulation systems. Use of suggested corrections for errors in cumulative probability counting leads to better use of available counters.

Every method counts

In this study we explore the concurrent, combined use of three research methods, statistical corpus analysis and two psycholinguistic experiments (a forced-choice and an acceptability rating task), using verbal synonymy in Finnish as a case in point. In addition to supporting conclusions from earlier studies concerning the relationships between corpus-based and ex- perimental data (e. g., Featherston 2005), we show that each method adds to our understanding of the studied phenomenon, in a way which could not be achieved through any single method by itself. Most importantly, whereas relative rareness in a corpus is associated with dispreference in selection, such infrequency does not categorically always entail substantially lower acceptability. Furthermore, we show that forced-choice and acceptability rating tasks pertain to distinct linguistic processes, with category-wise in- commensurable scales of measurement, and should therefore be merged with caution, if at all.

Comparing type counts

This work is a case study of applying nonparametric statistical methods to corpus data. We show how to use ideas from permutation testing to answer linguistic questions related to morphological productivity and type richness. In particular, we study the use of the suffixes -ity and -ness in the 17th-century part of the Corpus of Early English Correspondence within the framework of historical sociolinguistics. Our hypothesis is that the productivity of -ity, as measured by type counts, is significantly low in letters written by women. To test such hypotheses, and to facilitate exploratory data analysis, we take the approach of computing accumulation curves for types and hapax legomena. We have developed an open source computer program which uses Monte Carlo sampling to compute the upper and lower bounds of these curves for one or more levels of statistical significance. By comparing the type accumulation from women’s letters with the bounds, we are able to confirm our hypothesis.

HIGH-RESOLUTION IMAGING OF THE ATLBS REGIONS: THE RADIO SOURCE COUNTS

The Australia Telescope Low-brightness Survey (ATLBS) regions have been mosaic imaged at a radio frequency of 1.4 GHz with 6 `' angular resolution and 72 mu Jy beam(-1) rms noise. The images (centered at R. A. 00(h)35(m)00(s), decl. -67 degrees 00'00 `' and R. A. 00(h)59(m)17(s), decl. -67.00'00 `', J2000 epoch) cover 8.42 deg(2) sky area and have no artifacts or imaging errors above the image thermal noise. Multi-resolution radio and optical r-band images (made using the 4 m CTIO Blanco telescope) were used to recognize multi-component sources and prepare a source list; the detection threshold was 0.38 mJy in a low-resolution radio image made with beam FWHM of 50 `'. Radio source counts in the flux density range 0.4-8.7 mJy are estimated, with corrections applied for noise bias, effective area correction, and resolution bias. The resolution bias is mitigated using low-resolution radio images, while effects of source confusion are removed by using high-resolution images for identifying blended sources. Below 1 mJy the ATLBS counts are systematically lower than the previous estimates. Showing no evidence for an upturn down to 0.4 mJy, they do not require any changes in the radio source population down to the limit of the survey. The work suggests that automated image analysis for counts may be dependent on the ability of the imaging to reproduce connecting emission with low surface brightness and on the ability of the algorithm to recognize sources, which may require that source finding algorithms effectively work with multi-resolution and multi-wavelength data. The work underscores the importance of using source lists-as opposed to component lists-and correcting for the noise bias in order to precisely estimate counts close to the image noise and determine the upturn at sub-mJy flux density.

Use of aerial survey and aerophotogrammetry methods in monitoring manatee populations

We evaluated the use of strip-transect survey methods for manatees through a series of replicate aerial surveys in the Banana River, Brevard County, Florida, during summer 1993 and summer 1994. Transect methods sample a representative portion of the total study area, thus allowing for statistical extrapolation to the total area. Other advantages of transect methods are less flight time and less cost than total coverage, ease of navigation, and reduced likelihood of double-counting. Our objectives were: (1) to identify visibility biases associated with the transect survey method and to adjust the counts accordingly; (2) to derive a population estimate with known variance for the Banana River during summer; and (3) to evaluate the potential value of this survey method for monitoring trends in manatee population size over time. (51 page document)

Abundance and Distribution of Ichthyoplankton along an Inshore-Offshore Transect in Onslow Bay, North Carolina

The distribution and abundance of ichthyoplankton was investigated from November 1979 to March 1980 along a transect from coastal to continental slope waters in Onslow Bay, North Carolina. Representatives of 66 families were collected; 24 of which were tropical families, a category that also includes families of typically oceanic and deep-sea fishes. Larvae of tropical species were collected in coastal and shelf waters, demonstrating the intrusion of Gulf Stream waters onto the continental shelf. From December through March, frontal waters that separated cold open-shelf surface waters from warm Gulf Stream surface waters were observed. Higher abundances of fish larvae were sometimes, but not consistently, associated with frontal waters. A great diversity of taxa was collected in offshore waters, and densities of larvae were low in coastal waters; low densities were attributed to gear selectivity rather than low larval abundance. Larvae of commercially and recreationally important estuarine-dependent species, especially Leiostomus xanthus and Micropogonias undulatus, were dominant components of the ichthyoplankton. Representatives of the families Bothidae, Clupeidae, Gadidae, Gonostomatidae, Myctophidae, Ophidiidae, and Sparidae were also important components of the ichthyoplankton. Larvae of species representing two strikingly different life history types-mesopelagic and estuarine-dependent frequently cooccurred.(PDF file contains 32 pages.)

An evaluation of geographic and annual variation in morphometric characters and gill-raker counts of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, from the Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Samples of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, collected from five areas of the Pacific Ocean (Mexico, Ecuador, Australia, Japan, and Hawaii) between January and May of 1988 and 1990 were examined for spatiotemporal variation in morphometric characters and gill-raker counts. 'Iwo-factor analysis of variance, with area and year treated as grouping factors, indicated a significant difference in the means of the total gill-raker counts among fish from different areas, but no significant difference between fish caught in different years. The morphometric data were adjusted by allometric formulae to remove size effects. The correct classification rates for the five groups, using discriminant function analysis, based on adjusted morphometric characters, were 77.60/0 for the samples from 1988 and 74.40/0 for those from 1990. These are 72.00/0 and 68.00/0 (Cohen's kappa statistic) better than would have occurred chance. The pattern of geographic variability, however, is unstable for these two years, thus requiring separate discriminant functions for each year. Although there is annual variability in the morphometric characters, these results demonstrate that the stocks examined are morphometrically distinguishable and that their phenetic relationships reflect their geographic origin. SPANISH: Se examinaron muestras de atún aleta amarilla, Thunnus albacares, tomadas de cinco áreas del Océano Pacífico (México, Ecuador, Australia, Japón, y Hawaii) entre enero y mayo de 1988 y 1990, para descubrir variaciones espaciotemporales en las características morfométricas y los conteos de branquiespinas. Un análisis de varianza de dos factores, con área y año como factores de agrupación, indicó una diferencia significativa en los promedios de los conteos de branquiespinas totales entre peces de distintas áreas, pero ninguna entre peces capturados en distintos años. Se ajustaron los datos morfométricos con fórmulas alométricas para eliminar los efectos de la talla del pez. En un análisis de función discriminante, las tasas de clasificación correcta de los cinco grupos, basadas en características morfométricas ajustadas, fueron 77.60/0 para las muestras de 1988 y 74.40/0 para aquellas de 1990. Estas cifras son 72.00/0 y 68.00/0 (estadístico de kappa de Cohen) mejores de lo que se hubiera obtenido al azar. Sin embargo, la variabilidad geográfica es inestable en estos dos años, requiriendo por lo tanto funciones discriminantes separadas para cada año. Aunque existe variabilidad anual en las características morfométricas, estos resultados demuestran que los stocks examinados son morfamétricamente distinguibles, y que su relación fenética refleja su origen geográfico. (PDF contains 31 pages.)

Herpetofaunal Inventories of the National Parks of South Florida and the Caribbean: Volume II. Virgin Islands National Park

Amphibian declines and extinctions have been documented around the world, often in protected natural areas. Concern for this alarming trend has focused attention on the need to document all species of amphibians that occur within U.S. National Parks and to search for any signs that amphibians may be declining. This study, an inventory of amphibian species in Virgin Islands National Park, was conducted from 2001 to 2003. The goals of the project were to create a georeferenced inventory of amphibian species, use new analytical techniques to estimate proportion of sites occupied by each species, look for any signs of amphibian decline (missing species, disease, die-offs, etc.), and to establish a protocol that could be used for future monitoring efforts. Several sampling methods were used to accomplish these goals. Visual encounter surveys and anuran vocalization surveys were conducted in all habitats throughout the park to estimate the proportion of sites or proportion of area occupied (PAO) by amphibian species in each habitat. Line transect methods were used to estimate density of some amphibian species and double observer analysis was used to refine counts based on detection probabilities. Opportunistic collections were used to augment the visual encounter methods for rare species. Data were collected during four sampling periods and every major trail system throughout the park was surveyed. All of the amphibian species believed to occur on St. John were detected during these surveys. One species not previously reported, the Cuban treefrog (Osteopilus septentrionalis), was also added to the species list. That species and two others (Eleutherodactylus coqui and Eleutherodactylus lentus) bring the total number of introduced amphibians on St. John to three. We detected most of the reptile species thought to occur on St. John, but our methods were less suitable for reptiles compared to amphibians. No amphibian species appear to be in decline at this time. We found no evidence of disease or of malformations. Our surveys provide a snapshot picture of the status of the amphibian species, so continued monitoring would be necessary to determine long-term trends, but several potential threats to amphibians were identified. Invasive species, especially the Cuban treefrog, have the potential to decrease populations of native amphibians. Introduced mammalian predators are also a potential threat, especially to the reptiles of St. John, and mammalian grazers might have indirect effects on amphibians and reptiles through habitat modification. Finally, loss of habitat to development outside the park boundary could harm some important populations of amphibians and reptiles on the island.