Prevalence and risk factors for therapy escalation in ulcerative colitis in the Swiss IBD Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Physicians traditionally treat ulcerative colitis (UC) using a step-up approach. Given the paucity of data, we aimed to assess the cumulative probability of UC-related need for step-up therapy and to identify escalation-associated risk factors. METHODS: Patients with UC enrolled into the Swiss IBD Cohort Study were analyzed. The following steps from the bottom to the top of the therapeutic pyramid were examined: (1) 5-aminosalicylic acid and/or rectal corticosteroids, (2) systemic corticosteroids, (3) immunomodulators (IM) (azathioprine, 6-mercaptopurine, methotrexate), (4) TNF antagonists, (5) calcineurin inhibitors, and (6) colectomy. RESULTS: Data on 996 patients with UC with a median disease duration of 9 years were examined. The point estimates of cumulative use of different treatments at years 1, 5, 10, and 20 after UC diagnosis were 91%, 96%, 96%, and 97%, respectively, for 5-ASA and/or rectal corticosteroids, 63%, 69%, 72%, and 79%, respectively, for systemic corticosteroids, 43%, 57%, 59%, and 64%, respectively, for IM, 15%, 28%, and 35% (up to year 10 only), respectively, for TNF antagonists, 5%, 9%, 11%, and 12%, respectively, for calcineurin inhibitors, 1%, 5%, 9%, and 18%, respectively, for colectomy. The presence of extraintestinal manifestations and extended disease location (at least left-sided colitis) were identified as risk factors for step-up in therapy with systemic corticosteroids, IM, TNF antagonists, calcineurin inhibitors, and surgery. Cigarette smoking at diagnosis was protective against surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of extraintestinal manifestations, left-sided colitis, and extensive colitis/pancolitis at the time of diagnosis were associated with use of systemic corticosteroids, IM, TNF antagonists, calcineurin inhibitors, and colectomy during the disease course.

Using time and stochastic models for software reliability forecasting and analysis

Tämä työ luo katsauksen ajallisiin ja stokastisiin ohjelmien luotettavuus malleihin sekä tutkii muutamia malleja käytännössä. Työn teoriaosuus sisältää ohjelmien luotettavuuden kuvauksessa ja arvioinnissa käytetyt keskeiset määritelmät ja metriikan sekä varsinaiset mallien kuvaukset. Työssä esitellään kaksi ohjelmien luotettavuusryhmää. Ensimmäinen ryhmä ovat riskiin perustuvat mallit. Toinen ryhmä käsittää virheiden ”kylvöön” ja merkitsevyyteen perustuvat mallit. Työn empiirinen osa sisältää kokeiden kuvaukset ja tulokset. Kokeet suoritettiin käyttämällä kolmea ensimmäiseen ryhmään kuuluvaa mallia: Jelinski-Moranda mallia, ensimmäistä geometrista mallia sekä yksinkertaista eksponenttimallia. Kokeiden tarkoituksena oli tutkia, kuinka syötetyn datan distribuutio vaikuttaa mallien toimivuuteen sekä kuinka herkkiä mallit ovat syötetyn datan määrän muutoksille. Jelinski-Moranda malli osoittautui herkimmäksi distribuutiolle konvergaatio-ongelmien vuoksi, ensimmäinen geometrinen malli herkimmäksi datan määrän muutoksille.

Recommendations for malaria prevention in moderate to low risk areas: travellers' choice and risk perception.

BACKGROUND: The considerable malaria decline in several countries challenges the strategy of chemoprophylaxis for travellers visiting moderate- to low-risk areas. An international consensus on the best strategy is lacking. It is essential to include travellers' opinions in the decision process. The preference of travellers regarding malaria prevention for moderate- to low-risk areas, related to their risk perception, as well as the reasons for their choices were investigated. METHODS: Prior to pre-travel consultation in the Travel Clinic, a self-administered questionnaire was given to travellers visiting moderate- to low-risk malaria areas. Four preventive options were proposed to the traveller, i.e., bite prevention only, chemoprophylaxis, stand-by emergency treatment alone, and stand-by emergency treatment with rapid diagnostic test. The information was accompanied by a risk scale for incidence of malaria, anti-malarial adverse drug reactions and other travel-related risks, inspired by Paling palettes from the Risk Communication Institute. RESULTS: A total of 391 travellers were included from December 2012 to December 2013. Fifty-nine (15%) opted for chemoprophylaxis, 116 (30%) for stand-by emergency treatment, 112 (29%) for stand-by emergency treatment with rapid diagnostic test, 100 (26%) for bite prevention only, and four (1%) for other choices. Travellers choosing chemoprophylaxis justified their choice for security reasons (42%), better preventive action (29%), higher efficacy (15%) and easiness (15%). The reasons for choosing stand-by treatment or bite prevention only were less medication consumed (29%), less adverse drug reactions (23%) and lower price (9%). Those who chose chemoprophylaxis were more likely to have used it in the past (OR = 3.0 (CI 1.7-5.44)), but were not different in terms of demographic, travel characteristics or risk behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: When travelling to moderate- to low-risk malaria areas, 85% of interviewees chose not to take chemoprophylaxis as malaria prevention, although most guidelines recommend it. They had coherent reasons for their choice. New recommendations should include shared decision-making to take into account travellers' preferences.

Reframing video gaming and internet use addiction : empirical cross-national comparison of heavy use over time and addiction scales among young users

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Evidence-based and reliable measures of addictive disorders are needed in general population-based assessments. One study suggested that heavy use over time (UOT) should be used instead of self-reported addiction scales (AS). This study compared UOT and AS regarding video gaming and internet use empirically, using associations with comorbid factors. DESIGN: Cross-sectional data from the 2011 French Survey on Health and Consumption on Call-up and Preparation for Defence-Day (ESCAPAD), cross-sectional data from the 2012 Swiss ado@internet.ch study and two waves of longitudinal data (2010-13) of the Swiss Longitudinal Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF). SETTING: Three representative samples from the general population of French and Swiss adolescents and young Swiss men, aged approximately 17, 14 and 20 years, respectively. PARTICIPANTS: ESCAPAD: n =22 945 (47.4% men); ado@internet.ch: n =3049 (50% men); C-SURF: n =4813 (baseline + follow-up, 100% men). MEASUREMENTS: We assessed video gaming/internet UOT ESCAPAD and ado@internet.ch: number of hours spent online per week, C-SURF: latent score of time spent gaming/using internet] and AS (ESCAPAD: Problematic Internet Use Questionnaire, ado@internet.ch: Internet Addiction Test, C-SURF: Gaming AS). Comorbidities were assessed with health outcomes (ESCAPAD: physical health evaluation with a single item, suicidal thoughts, and appointment with a psychiatrist; ado@internet.ch: WHO-5 and somatic health problems; C-SURF: Short Form 12 (SF-12 Health Survey) and Major Depression Inventory (MDI). FINDINGS: UOT and AS were correlated moderately (ESCAPAD: r = 0.40, ado@internet.ch: r = 0.53 and C-SURF: r = 0.51). Associations of AS with comorbidity factors were higher than those of UOT in cross-sectional (AS: .005 ≤ |b| ≤ 2.500, UOT: 0.001 ≤ |b| ≤ 1.000) and longitudinal analyses (AS: 0.093 ≤ |b| ≤ 1.079, UOT: 0.020 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.329). The results were similar across gender in ESCAPAD and ado@internet.ch (men: AS: 0.006 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.211, UOT: 0.001 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.061; women: AS: 0.004 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.155, UOT: 0.001 ≤ |b| ≤ 0.094). CONCLUSIONS: The measurement of heavy use over time captures part of addictive video gaming/internet use without overlapping to a large extent with the results of measuring by self-reported addiction scales (AS). Measuring addictive video gaming/internet use via self-reported addiction scales relates more strongly to comorbidity factors than heavy use over time.

Seroprevalence and risk factors associated with Chlamydophila abortus infection in dairy goats in the Northeast of Brazil

Few data are available on the prevalence and risk factors of Chlamydophila abortus infection in goats in Brazil. A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the flock-level prevalence of C. abortus infection in goats from the semiarid region of the Paraíba State, Northeast region of Brazil, as well as to identify risk factors associated with the infection. Flocks were randomly selected and a pre-established number of female goats > 12 mo old were sampled in each of these flocks. A total of 975 serum samples from 110 flocks were collected, and structured questionnaire focusing on risk factors for C. abortus infection was given to each farmer at the time of blood collection. For the serological diagnosis the complement fixation test (CFT) using C. abortus S26/3 strain as antigen was performed. The flock-level factors for C. abortus prevalence were tested using multivariate logistic regression model. Fifty-five flocks out of 110 presented at least one seropositive animal with an overall prevalence of 50.0% (95%; CI: 40.3%, 59.7%). Ninety-one out of 975 dairy goats examined were seropositive with titers >32, resulting in a frequency of 9.3%. Lend buck for breeding (odds ratio = 2.35; 95% CI: 1.04-5.33) and history of abortions (odds ratio = 3.06; 95% CI: 1.37-6.80) were associated with increased flock prevalence.

Dialysis, time and death: comparisons of two consecutive decades among patients treated at the same Brazilian dialysis center

The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced not only by well-known risk factors like age and comorbidity, but also by changes in dialysis technology and practices accumulated along time. We compared the survival curves, dialysis routines and some risk factors of two groups of patients admitted to a Brazilian maintenance hemodialysis program during two consecutive decades: March 1977 to December 1986 (group 1, N = 162) and January 1987 to June 1997 (group 2, N = 237). The median treatment time was 22 months (range 1-198). Survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank method. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to investigate the more important variables associated with outcome. The most important changes in dialysis routine and in patient care during the total period of observation were the progressive increase in the dose of dialysis delivered, the prohibition of potassium-free dialysate, the use of bicarbonate as a buffer and the upgrading of the dialysis equipment. There were no significant differences between the survival curves of the two groups. Survival rates at 1, 5 and 10 years were 84, 53 and 29%, respectively, for group 1 and 77, 42 and 21% for group 2. Patients in group 1 were younger (45.5 ± 15.2 vs 55.2 ± 15.9 years, P<0.001) and had a lower prevalence of diabetes (11.1 vs 27.4%, P<0.001) and of cardiovascular disease (9.3 vs 20.7%, P<0.001). According to the Cox multivariate model, only age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.05, P<0.001) and diabetes (HR 2.55, CI 1.82-3.58, P<0.001) were independent predictors of mortality for the whole group. Patients of group 2 had a lower prevalence of sudden death (19.1 vs 9.7%, P<0.001). After adjusting for age, diabetes and other mortality risk factors, the risk of death was 17% lower in group 2, although this difference was not statistically significant. We conclude that the negative effects of advanced age and of higher frequency of comorbidity on the survival of group 2 patients were probably offset by improvements in patient care and in the quality and dose of dialysis delivered, so that the survival curves did not undergo significant changes along time.

Steroid-resistant idiopathic nephrotic syndrome in children: long-term follow-up and risk factors for end-stage renal disease

INTRODUTION: Steroid resistant idiopathic nephrotic syndrome (SRINS) in children is one of the leading causes of progression to chronic kidney disease stage V (CKD V)/end stage renal disease (ESRD). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this retrospective study is to evaluate the efficacy of immunosuppressive drugs (IS) and to identify risk factors for progression to ESRD in this population. METHODS: Clinical and biochemical variables at presentation, early or late steroid resistance, histological pattern and response to cyclosporine A (CsA) and cyclophosfamide (CP) were reviewed in 136 children with SRINS. The analyzed outcome was the progression to ESRD. Univariate as well as multivariate Cox-regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: Median age at onset was 5.54 years (0.67-17.22) and median follow up time was 6.1 years (0.25-30.83). Early steroid-resistance was observed in 114 patients and late resistance in 22. Resistance to CP and CsA was 62.9% and 35% respectively. At last follow-up 57 patients reached ESRD. The renal survival rate was 71.5%, 58.4%, 55.3%, 35.6% and 28.5% at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years respectively. Univariate analysis demonstrated that older age at onset, early steroid-resistance, hematuria, hypertension, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), and resistance to IS were risk factors for ESRD. The Cox proportional-hazards regression identified CsAresistance and FSGS as the only predictors for ESRD. CONCLUSION: Our findings showed that CsA-resistance and FSGS were risk factors for ESRD.

Parental separation and child adjustment : longitudinal perspective and risk factors

Malgré de nombreuses études qui soutiennent l'idée que les enfants ayant vécu la rupture de leurs parents rencontrent un plus haut niveau de difficultés affectives et comportementales que les enfants de familles intactes, certaines questions restent à éclaircir. Notamment, les données empiriques existantes ne conduisent pas à des conclusions précises quant au moment exact de l’apparition de ces difficultés. De plus, ce n'est pas clair si ces difficultés sont associées à la séparation en soi, ou à bien d'autres facteurs liés à la séparation. Cette thèse est constituée de deux articles empiriques. Le premier examine l’adaptation de l’enfant avant et après la séparation en fonction du sexe et de l'âge au moment de la séparation. Le second article présente une étude qui a pour objectif de départager l’importance des facteurs parentaux et contextuels et celle de la séparation parentale pour expliquer l’adaptation de l’enfant. Les participants proviennent de l'Étude Longitudinale du Développement des Enfants du Québec (ÉLDEQ, 1998-2006). À chaque enquête de l'ÉLDEQ, une entrevue structurée réalisée auprès de la mère a permis d'évaluer les niveaux d’hyperactivité/impulsivité, d’anxiété et d’agressivité physique de l’enfant. Pendant cette entrevue, les mères ont également répondu à des questions sur la qualité de leurs pratiques parentales et sur le revenu du ménage. Finalement, un questionnaire auto-administré à la mère a permis d'évaluer ses propres symptômes de dépression et d'anxiété. La première étude inclus 143 enfants de familles séparées et 1705 enfants de familles intactes. Deux sous-groupes ont été créés selon que l’enfant ait vécu la séparation entre 2 et 4 ans, ou entre 4 et 6 ans. L’adaptation de l'enfant a été évaluée à un temps de mesure avant la séparation et à deux temps de mesure après la séparation. Les résultats de cette première étude démontrent qu’avant la séparation, les enfants de familles intactes et séparées ne se distinguent pas significativement quant à leurs niveaux d’hyperactivité/impulsivité et d’anxiété. Par contre, ces difficultés deviennent significativement plus élevées chez les enfants de familles séparées après la rupture des parents. D’autres parts, le niveau d’agressivité physique est plus élevé chez les enfants de la séparation indépendamment du temps de mesure. Finalement, les différences entre les deux groupes d’enfants ne dépendent pas du sexe ou de l’âge au moment de la séparation. La deuxième étude inclus 358 enfants de 8 ans qui ont vécu la séparation de leurs parents, et 1065 enfants du même âge provenant de familles intactes. Après avoir contrôlé pour le sexe de l’enfant, les résultats ont démontré que lorsqu’on tient compte de la contribution des symptômes maternels de dépression et d'anxiété, de la qualité des pratiques parentales et du revenu du ménage dans l’adaptation de l’enfant, la séparation parentale ne demeurent plus liée aux niveaux d’anxiété et d'agressivité physique de l’enfant. Par contre, la relation entre la séparation parentale et l’hyperactivité/impulsivité de l’enfant demeure significative. Les résultats présentés dans les articles sont discutés ainsi que leurs implications.

Ownership structure and risk at Colombian banks

The separation between ownership and the control of capital in banks generates differences in the preferences for risk among shareholders and the manager. These differences could imply a corporate governance problem in banks with a dispersed ownership, since owners fail to exert control in the allocation of capital. In this paper we examine the relationship between the ownership structure and risk for Colombian banks. Our results suggest that a high ownership concentration leads to higher levels of risk.

Real estate portfolio size and risk reduction

The reduction of portfolio risk is important to all investors but is particularly important to real estate investors as most property portfolios are generally small. As a consequence, portfolios are vulnerable to a significant risk of under-performing the market, or a target rate of return and so investors may be exposing themselves to greater risk than necessary. Given the potentially higher risk of underperformance from owning only a few properties, we follow the approach of Vassal (2001) and examine the benefits of holding more properties in a real estate portfolio. Using Monte Carlo simulation and the returns from 1,728 properties in the IPD database, held over the 10-year period from 1995 to 2004, the results show that increases in portfolio size offers the possibility of a more stable and less volatile return pattern over time, i.e. down-side risk is diminished with increasing portfolio size. Nonetheless, increasing portfolio size has the disadvantage of restricting the probability of out-performing the benchmark index by a significant amount. In other words, although increasing portfolio size reduces the down-side risk in a portfolio, it also decreases its up-side potential. Be that as it may, the results provide further evidence that portfolios with large numbers of properties are always preferable to portfolios of a smaller size.

The potential inefficiency of using marketing margins in applied commodity price analysis, forecasting and risk management

This paper examines the implications of using marketing margins in applied commodity price analysis. The marketing-margin concept has a long and distinguished history, but it has caused considerable controversy. This is particularly the case in the context of analyzing the distribution of research gains in multi-stage production systems. We derive optimal tax schemes for raising revenues to finance research and promotion in a downstream market, derive the rules for efficient allocation of the funds, and compare the rules with an without the marketing-margin assumption. Applying the methodology to quarterly time series on the Australian beef-cattle sector and, with several caveats, we conclude that, during the period 1978:2 - 1988:4, the Australian Meat and Livestock Corporation optimally allocated research resources.

Asymmetric auctions and risk aversion within independent private valoues

We study tournaments with many ex-ante asymmetric (heterogeneous) contestants as an independent-private-values all-pay auction. The asymmetry is either with respect to the distribution of valuations for the prize or the risk preferences. By characterizing equilibria in tnonotone strategies we show that tournaments \:vith man~y heterogenous contestants are qualitatively distinct. First, with two (or many ex-ante identical) participants, a contestant always exerts some effort with positive probability. In contrast, with many asymmetric participants, one 1night not exert any effort at all, even if there is a positive probability that he has the highest valuation among ali. Second, in tournan1ents with t'wo (o r n1any ex-ante h01nogenous) contestants, equilibrium effort densities are decreasing. This prediction is at odds with experimental evidence that shows the empírica! density might be increasing at high effort levels. V\.lith rnany heterogeneous contestants, however. the increasing bid density is consistent with an equilibrium behavior.

Venous ulcer: clinical characteristics and risk factors

BackgroundLower limb venous ulceration ranks among the 10 most common medical problems in Western countries and has significant socioeconomic impact. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors for unhealed, recurrent, and large ulcers and to characterize patients with active or recently healed venous ulcers.MethodsWe identified 97 patients and assessed 103 ulcerated limbs in 90 patients. All patients underwent clinical examination, arterial and venous system evaluation, ankle-brachial index determination, and ultrasound of the affected limb. Clinical characteristics included age, gender, race, ulcer duration, time since first episode, history of recurrence, localization of ulcer, ulcer area, eczema, ochre dermatitis, lipodermatosclerosis, pain, body mass index, and medical history data. Risk factors were identified by univariate analysis and estimated odds ratios.ResultsWe assessed 90 patients (103 limbs) with active or healed venous leg ulcers, of whom 84.4% were Caucasian and 68.9% were female. Mean age was 56.0 +/- 13.3 years. Ulcers had remained unhealed for < 1 year in 40.7%. Lipodermatosclerosis, lower limb hyperpigmentation, edema, and eczema were seen in 96.7%, 95.6%, 94.4%, and 51.1% of patients, respectively. Pain was a frequent symptom in 74.4%. Body mass index was assessed in 85 patients: 30.6% were slightly, 36.5% moderately, and 7% severely obese. Patient age > 60 years (odds ratio [OR] 4.0), extensive lipodermatosclerosis (OR 8.7), and previous history of ulceration (OR 19.9) were risk factors for unhealed ulcers. Time since first ulcer episode >= 2 years (OR 29.2) and incompetence of venous systems (OR 1.6) were risk factors for recurrence.ConclusionsLongstanding and large ulcers and recurrences are the main problems encountered by venous ulcer patients. Severe lipodermatosclerosis, previous ulcer history, and time since first ulcer episode >= 2 years are significant risk factors.

Antioxidant effect of saponin: potential action of a soybean flavonoid on glucose tolerance and risk factors for atherosclerosis

At the present time, much attention is being paid to antioxidant substances because many pathological conditions are associated with oxidative stress. The purpose of the present study was to discover the potency of saponin (2-phenyl-benzopyrane), a soybean flavonoid, with respect to its hypoglycaemic and hypolipidaemic action, and the association of these effects with oxidative stress. Male Wistar rats were divided into two groups (n = 6): control group and saponin-treated group (60 mg/kg) during 30 days. Saponin had no effects on glucose tolerance. Although no changes had been observed in low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, saponin-treated animals had increased low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol/triacylglycerol ratio and decreased triacylglycerol, very low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and total/high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio than the control group. Saponin-treated rats showed lower lipid hydroperoxide than control rats, indicating decreased potential to atherosclerosis. No alterations were observed in antioxidant enzymes, superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase, while lipid hydroperoxide were decreased in saponin-treated rats. In conclusion, the beneficial effects of saponin on serum lipids were related to a direct saponin antioxidant activity.