Computational models for the prediction of severe thunderstorms over east indian region

Thunderstorm is one of the most spectacular weather phenomena in the atmosphere. Many parts over the Indian region experience thunderstorms at higher frequency during pre-monsoon months (March- May), when the atmosphere is highly unstable because of high temperatures prevailing at lower levels. Most dominant feature of the weather during the pre-monsoon season over the eastern Indo-Gangetic plain and northeast India is the outburst of severe local convective storms, commonly known as ‘Nor’wester’ or ‘Kalbaishakhi’. The severe thunderstorms associated with thunder, squall line, lightning and hail cause extensive losses in agriculture, damage to structure and also loss of life. The casualty due to lightning associated with thunderstorms in this region is the highest in the world. The highest numbers of aviation hazards are reported during occurrence of these thunderstorms. In India, 72% of tornadoes are associated with this thunderstorm.

A Comparative Study of Convective Parameterization Schemes in WRF-NMM Model

Severe local storms, including tornadoes, damaging hail and wind gusts, frequently occur over the eastern and northeastern states of India during the pre-monsoon season (March-May). Forecasting thunderstorms is one of the most difficult tasks in weather prediction, due to their rather small spatial and temporal extension and the inherent non-linearity of their dynamics and physics. In this paper, sensitivity experiments are conducted with the WRF-NMM model to test the impact of convective parameterization schemes on simulating severe thunderstorms that occurred over Kolkata on 20 May 2006 and 21 May 2007 and validated the model results with observation. In addition, a simulation without convective parameterization scheme was performed for each case to determine if the model could simulate the convection explicitly. A statistical analysis based on mean absolute error, root mean square error and correlation coefficient is performed for comparisons between the simulated and observed data with different convective schemes. This study shows that the prediction of thunderstorm affected parameters is sensitive to convective schemes. The Grell-Devenyi cloud ensemble convective scheme is well simulated the thunderstorm activities in terms of time, intensity and the region of occurrence of the events as compared to other convective schemes and also explicit scheme

The diagnosis of severe thunderstorms with high-resolution WRF model

Thunderstorm, resulting from vigorous convective activity, is one of the most spectacular weather phenomena in the atmosphere. A common feature of the weather during the pre-monsoon season over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and northeast India is the outburst of severe local convective storms, commonly known as ‘Nor’westers’(as they move from northwest to southeast). The severe thunderstorms associated with thunder, squall lines, lightning and hail cause extensive losses in agricultural, damage to structure and also loss of life. In this paper, sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) to test the impact of three microphysical schemes in capturing the severe thunderstorm event occurred over Kolkata on 15 May 2009. The results show that the WRF-NMM model with Ferrier microphysical scheme appears to reproduce the cloud and precipitation processes more realistically than other schemes. Also, we have made an attempt to diagnose four severe thunderstorms that occurred during pre-monsoon seasons of 2006, 2007 and 2008 through the simulated radar reflectivity fields from NMM model with Ferrier microphysics scheme and validated the model results with Kolkata Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) observations. Composite radar reflectivity simulated by WRF-NMM model clearly shows the severe thunderstorm movement as observed by DWR imageries, but failed to capture the intensity as in observations. The results of these analyses demonstrated the capability of high resolution WRF-NMM model in the simulation of severe thunderstorm events and determined that the 3 km model improve upon current abilities when it comes to simulating severe thunderstorms over east Indian region

Air-earth current density measurements at Lerwick; implications for seasonality in the global electric circuit

Atmospheric electricity measurements were made at Lerwick Observatory in the Shetland Isles (60°09′N, 1°08′W) during most of the 20th century. The Potential Gradient (PG) was measured from 1926 to 84 and the air-earth conduction current (Jc) was measured during the final decade of the PG measurements. Daily Jc values (1978–1984) observed at 15 UT are presented here for the first time, with independently-obtained PG measurements used to select valid data. The 15 UT Jc (1978–1984) spans 0.5–9.5 pA/m2, with median 2.5 pA/m2; the columnar resistance at Lerwick is estimated as 70 PΩm2. Smoke measurements confirm the low pollution properties of the site. Analysis of the monthly variation of Lerwick Jc data shows that winter (DJF) Jc is significantly greater than the summer (JJA) Jc by 20%. The Lerwick atmospheric electricity seasonality differs from the global lightning seasonality, but Jc has a similar seasonal phasing to that observed in Nimbostratus clouds globally, suggesting a role for non-thunderstorm rain clouds in the seasonality of the global circuit.

Vertical current flow through extensive layer clouds

The global atmospheric electrical circuit sustains a vertical current density between the ionosphere and the Earth's surface, the existence of which is well-established from measurements made in fair-weather conditions. In overcast, but non-thunderstorm, non-precipitating conditions, the current travels through the cloud present, despite cloud layers having low electrical conductivity. For extensive layer clouds, this leads to space charge at the upper and lower cloud boundaries. Using a combination of atmospheric electricity and solar radiation measurements at three UK sites, vertical current measurements have been categorised into clear, broken, and overcast cloud conditions. This approach shows that the vertical “fair weather” current is maintained despite the presence of cloud. In fully overcast conditions with thick cloud, the vertical current is reduced compared to thin cloud overcast conditions, associated with the cloud's resistance contributions. Contribution of cloud to the columnar resistance depends both on cloud thickness, and the cloud's height.

Solar induced climate effects

Solar electromagnetic radiation powers Earth’s climate system and, consequently, it is often naively assumed that changes in this solar output must be responsible for changes in Earth’s climate. However, the Sun is close to a blackbody radiator and so emits according to its surface temperature and the huge thermal time constant of the outer part of the Sun limits the variability in surface temperature and hence output. As a result, on all timescales of interest, changes in total power output are limited to small changes in effective surface temperature (associated with magnetic fields) and potential, although as yet undetected, solar radius variations. Larger variations are seen in the UV part of the spectrum which is emitted from the lower solar atmosphere (the chromosphere) and which influences Earth’s stratosphere. There is interest in“top-down” mechanisms whereby solar UV irradiance modulates stratospheric temperatures and winds which, in turn, may influence the underlying troposphere where Earth’s climate and weather reside. This contrasts with “bottom-up” effects in which the small total solar irradiance (dominated by the visible and near-IR) variations cause surface temperature changes which drive atmospheric circulations. In addition to these electromagnetic outputs, the Sun modulates energetic particle fluxes incident on the Earth. Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) are emitted by solar flares and from the shock fronts ahead of supersonic (and super-Alfvenic) ejections of material from the solar atmosphere. These SEPs enhance the destruction of polar stratospheric ozone which could be an additional form of top-down climate forcing. Even more energetic are Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs). These particles are not generated by the Sun, rather they originate at the shock fronts emanating from violent galactic events such as supernovae explosions; however, the expansion of the solar magnetic field into interplanetary space means that the Sun modulates the number of GCRs reaching Earth. These play a key role in enabling Earth’s global electric (thunderstorm) circuit and it has been proposed that they also modulate the formation of clouds. Both electromagnetic and corpuscular solar effects are known to vary over the solar magnetic cycle which is typically between 10 and 14 yrs in length (with an average close to 11 yrs). The solar magnetic field polarity at any one phase of one of these activity cycles is opposite to that at the same phase of the next cycle and this influences some phenomena, for example GCRs, which therefore show a 22 yr (“Hale”) cycle on average. Other phenomena, such as irradiance modulation, do not depend on the polarity of the magnetic field and so show only the basic 11-yr activity cycle. However, any effects on climate are much more significant for solar drifts over centennial timescales. This chapter discusses and evaluates potential effects on Earth’s climate system of variations in these solar inputs. Because of the great variety of proposed mechanisms, the wide range of timescales studied (from days to millennia) and the many debates (often triggered by the application of inadequate statistical methods), the literature on this subject is vast, complex, divergent and rapidly changing: consequently the number of references cited in this review is very large (yet still only a small fraction of the total).

Twentieth century secular decrease in the atmospheric potential gradient

Current flowing in the global atmospheric electrical circuit (AEC) substantially decreased during the twentieth century. Fair-weather potential gradient (PG) observations in Scotland and Shetland show a previously unreported annual decline from 1920 to 1980, when the measurements ceased. A 25% reduction in PG occurred in Scotland 1920–50, with the maximum decline during the winter months. This is quantitatively explained by a decrease in cosmic rays (CR) increasing the thunderstorm-electrosphere coupling resistance, reducing the ionospheric potential VI. Independent measurements of VI also suggest a reduction of 27% from 1920–50. The secular decrease will influence fair weather atmospheric electrical parameters, including ion concentrations and aerosol electrification. Between 1920–50, the PG showed a negative correlation with global temperature, despite the positive correlation found recently between surface temperature and VI. The 1980s stabilisation in VI may arise from compensation of the continuing CR-induced decline by increases in global temperature and convective electrification.

The global atmospheric electrical circuit and climate

Evidence is emerging for physical links among clouds, global temperatures, the global atmospheric electrical circuit and cosmic ray ionisation. The global circuit extends throughout the atmosphere from the planetary surface to the lower layers of the ionosphere. Cosmic rays are the principal source of atmospheric ions away from the continental boundary layer: the ions formed permit a vertical conduction current to flow in the fair weather part of the global circuit. Through the (inverse) solar modulation of cosmic rays, the resulting columnar ionisation changes may allow the global circuit to convey a solar influence to meteorological phenomena of the lower atmosphere. Electrical effects on non-thunderstorm clouds have been proposed to occur via the ion-assisted formation of ultra-fine aerosol, which can grow to sizes able to act as cloud condensation nuclei, or through the increased ice nucleation capability of charged aerosols. Even small atmospheric electrical modulations on the aerosol size distribution can affect cloud properties and modify the radiative balance of the atmosphere, through changes communicated globally by the atmospheric electrical circuit. Despite a long history of work in related areas of geophysics, the direct and inverse relationships between the global circuit and global climate remain largely quantitatively unexplored. From reviewing atmospheric electrical measurements made over two centuries and possible paleoclimate proxies, global atmospheric electrical circuit variability should be expected on many timescales

Variability in surface atmospheric electric field measurements

An electrical current of the order one picoamp per metre squared flows vertically in the Earth's atmosphere, between the ionosphere at approximately 50km altitude and the surface. This current is generated by global thunderstorm activity and is modulated by galactic cosmic rays and atmospheric aerosol. In fair weather conditions, this current cause a vertical atmospheric electric field, commonly measured as a potential gradient. For circumstances other than fair weather conditions, the potential gradient varies, from small steady enhancements in fog to large fluctuations in thunderstorms. The atmospheric potential gradient is continuously monitored at the Reading University Atmospheric Observatory. An account of the variability of the potential gradient on a variety of time scales will be presented.

Retrieval of global atmospheric electrical activity at a polluted urban site

The atmospheric electrical Potential Gradient (PG) arises from global thunderstorm activity, but surface measurements of the atmospheric Potential Gradient (PG) are influenced by global thunderstorms and local aerosol concentration changes. The local aerosol change can be monitored independently, and in some cases the concentration changes are closely related to PG changes. For these circumstances, a general theory to remove the local aerosol influence on PG measurements has been developed. Continuous measurements of PG and aerosol mass concentration were made during 24–31 Dec, 2005 within an urban environment at Reading, UK. The average diurnal variation of PG showed a double diurnal cycle, with maxima in the early morning and evening hours. The aerosol concentration has similar double maxima. Removing the aerosol using from the PG and aerosol correlation returns a single diurnal cycle, suggestive of the more global PG diurnal cycle.

Cloud-resolving simulations of deep convection over a heated mountain

Cloud-resolving numerical simulations of airflow over a diurnally heated mountain ridge are conducted to explore the mechanisms and sensitivities of convective initiation under high pressure conditions. The simulations are based on a well-observed convection event from the Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study (COPS) during summer 2007, where an isolated afternoon thunderstorm developed over the Black Forest mountains of central Europe, but they are idealized to facilitate understanding and reduce computational expense. In the conditionally unstable but strongly inhibited flow under consideration, sharp horizontal convergence over the mountain acts to locally weaken the inhibition and moisten the dry midtroposphere through shallow cumulus detrainment. The onset of deep convection occurs not through the deep ascent of a single updraft but rather through a rapid succession of thermals that are vented through the mountain convergence zone into the deepening cloud mass. Emerging thermals rise through the saturated wakes of their predecessors, which diminishes the suppressive effects of entrainment and allows for rapid glaciation above the freezing level as supercooled cloud drops rime onto preexisting ice particles. These effects strongly enhance the midlevel cloud buoyancy and enable rapid ascent to the tropopause. The existence and vigor of the convection is highly sensitive to small changes in background wind speed U0, which controls the strength of the mountain convergence and the ability of midlevel moisture to accumulate above the mountain. Whereas vigorous deep convection develops for U0 = 0 m s−1, deep convection is completely eliminated for U0 = 3 m s−1. Although deep convection is able to develop under intermediate winds (U0 = 1.5 m s−1), its formation is highly sensitive to small-amplitude perturbations in the initial flow.

Inferring convective responses to El Niño with atmospheric electricity measurements at Shetland

Pacific ocean temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulate atmospheric convection and hence thunderstorm electrification. The generated current flows globally via the atmospheric electric circuit, which can be monitored anywhere on Earth. Atmospheric electricity measurements made at Shetland (in Scotland) display a mean global circuit response to ENSO that is characterized by strengthening during 'El Niño' conditions, and weakening during 'La Niña' conditions. Examining the hourly varying response indicates that a potential gradient (PG) increase around noon UT is likely to be associated with a change in atmospheric convection and resultant lightning activity over equatorial Africa and Eastern Asia. A secondary increase in PG just after midnight UT can be attributed to more shower clouds in the central Pacific ocean during an 'El Niño'.

Measurements of atmospheric electricity aloft

Measurements of the electrical characteristics of the atmosphere above the surface have been made for over 200 years, from a variety of different platforms, including kites, balloons, rockets and aircraft. From these measurements, a great deal of information about the electrical characteristics of the atmosphere has been gained, assisting our understanding of the global atmospheric electric circuit, thunderstorm electrification and lightning generation mechanisms, discovery of transient luminous events above thunderstorms, and many other electrical phenomena. This paper surveys the history of atmospheric electrical measurements aloft, from the earliest manned balloon ascents to current day observations with free balloons and aircraft. Measurements of atmospheric electrical parameters in a range of meteorological conditions are described, including clear air conditions, polluted conditions, non-thunderstorm clouds, and thunderstorm clouds, spanning a range of atmospheric conditions, from fair weather, to the most electrically active.

A self-calibrating electrometer for atmospheric charge measurements from a balloon platform

Charged aerosol particles and water droplets are abundant throughout the lower atmosphere, and may influence interactions between small cloud droplets. This note describes a small, disposable sensor for the measurement of charge in non-thunderstorm cloud, which is an improvement of an earlier sensor [K. A. Nicoll and R. G. Harrison, Rev. Sci. Instrum. 80, 014501 (2009)]. The sensor utilizes a self-calibrating current measurement method. It is designed for use on a free balloon platform alongside a standard meteorological radiosonde, measuring currents from 2 fA to 15 pA and is stable to within 5 fA over a temperature range of 5 °C to −60 °C. During a balloon flight with the charge sensor through a stratocumulus cloud, charge layers up to 40 pC m−3 were detected on the cloud edges.

Modulation of UK lightning by heliospheric magnetic field polarity

Observational studies have reported solar magnetic modulation of terrestrial lightning on a range of time scales, from days to decades. The proposed mechanism is two-step: lightning rates vary with galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux incident on Earth, either via changes in atmospheric conductivity and/or direct triggering of lightning. GCR flux is, in turn, primarily controlled by the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) intensity. Consequently, global changes in lightning rates are expected. This study instead considers HMF polarity, which doesnʼt greatly affect total GCR flux. Opposing HMF polarities are, however, associated with a 40–60% difference in observed UK lightning and thunder rates. As HMF polarity skews the terrestrial magnetosphere from its nominal position, this perturbs local ionospheric potential at high latitudes and local exposure to energetic charged particles from the magnetosphere. We speculate as to the mechanism(s) by which this may, in turn, redistribute the global location and/or intensity of thunderstorm activity.