Local power of some tests in exponential family nonlinear models

In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions up to order n(-1/2) for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in exponential family nonlinear models (Cordeiro and Paula, 1989), under a sequence of Pitman alternatives. The asymptotic distributions of all four statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the dispersion parameter, thus generalising the results given in Cordeiro et al. (1994) and Ferrari et al. (1997). We also present Monte Carlo simulations in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Um estudo da ansiedade em alunos de graduação em psicologia

Cientistas do comportamento humano se preocupam cada vez mais com a relação entre as variáveis ansiedade e rendimento pessoal, nas diversas etapas de trabalho do homem moderno. Alguns acham que há uma relação inversa entre as referidas variáveis. Nesta pesquisa procura-se verificar se a variável ansiedade pode apresentar implicações na escolha da profissão de psicólogo ou se a escolha inadequada da profissão pode aumentar o nível de ansiedade de uma pessoa. São focalizadas algumas teorias da ansiedade e suas abordagens clássicas - com definições e modelos, na visão de renomados autores, entre os quais se destacam Kierjeggard, Freud, Rollo May, Clark Hull, Spielberger e outros -, incluindo-se também várias teorias na área de influência do rendimento escolar. Um estudo de campo foi realizado em diversas Universidades do Rio de Janeiro e Faculdades Isoladas de Psicologia, sendo o Inventário de Ansiedade de Spielberger, na sua tradução para o Português, efetuada por Ângela Biaggio, com a finalidade de responder às seguintes questões: o alto índice da ansiedade levaria os alunos a procurarem os cursos de Psicologia ou, ainda, os cursos tornariam os alunos mais ansiosos. Os instrumentos utilizados para medir a variável independente foram os questionários de Charles D. Spielberger , o IDATE (Inventário de Ansiedade Traço e Estudo) e os procedimentos estatísticos, usados, através do t-teste e da análise de variância. O estudo baseia-se, entre outros pontos, nas diferenças de escores apresentados entre alunos do primeiro semestre do curso de Psicologia, semestres intermediários, o último semestre do mesmo curso, e, ainda, uma comparação entre os escores de alunos do primeiro semestre do curso de Psicologia e do curso de Administração de Empresas. Os resultados obtidos não apresentaram diferenças significativas nos estados de ansiedade dos grupos submetidos ao experimento. O estudo mostrou que o aluno de Psicologia não é mais ansioso que o de Administração e o nível de ansiedade não aumenta durante o curso, concluindo-se que a procura pelo curso não implica em situações ansiosas.

Sobrevida e morbidade em prematuros com menos de 32 semanas de gestação na região central do Brasil

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a sobrevida e complicações associadas à prematuridade em recém-nascidos com menos de 32 semanas. MÉTODOS: Estudo prospectivo do tipo coorte. Foram incluídos os nascidos vivos, com idade gestacional entre 25 semanas e 31 semanas e 6 dias, sem anomalias congênitas admitidos em UTI Neonatal, entre 1º de agosto de 2009 e 31 de outubro de 2010. Os recém-nascidos foram estratificados em três grupos: G25, 25 a 27 semanas e 6 dias; G28, 28 a 29 semanas e 6 dias; G30, 30 a 31 semanas e 6 dias, e acompanhados até 28 dias. Foram avaliadas a sobrevida aos 28 dias e a morbidade associadas à prematuridade. Para análise dos resultados, utilizou-se o teste do c², análise de variância, teste de Kruskal-Wallis, razão de risco com intervalo de confiança (IC) e regressão logística múltipla, com significância em 5%. RESULTADOS: A coorte compreendeu 198 prematuros, sendo G25=59, G28=43 e G30=96. O risco de óbito foi significativamente maior em G25 e G28, em relação ao G30 (RR=4,1; IC95% 2,2-7,6 e RR=2,8; IC95% 1,4-5,7). A sobrevida encontrada foi, respectivamente, 52,5, 67,4 e 88,5%. A partir da 26ª semana e peso >700 g, a sobrevida foi superior a 50%. A morbidade foi inversamente proporcional à idade gestacional, exceto para enterocolite necrosante e leucomalácia, que não diferiram entre os grupos. A análise de regressão logística mostrou que a hemorragia pulmonar (OR=3,3; IC95% 1,4-7,9) e a síndrome do desconforto respiratório (OR=2,5; IC95% 1,1-6,1) foram fatores independentes de risco para óbito. Houve predomínio das lesões cerebrais hemorrágicas graves em G25. CONCLUSÕES: Sobrevivência superior a 50% ocorreu a partir da 26ª semana de gravidez e peso >700 g. A hemorragia pulmonar e a síndrome do desconforto respiratório foram preditores independentes de óbito. Há necessidade de identificar e instituir práticas para melhorar a sobrevida de prematuros extremos.

Sequential Sampling Plan for Tenuipalpus heveae Baker (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) on Rubber Tree

The objective of the present study was to develop a sequential sampling plan for the decision-making process to control Tenuipalpus heveae Baker (Acari: Tenuipalpidae), an important pest of the rubber tree crop. The experimental area was represented by 1,000 plants of the RRIM 600 clone divided in 100 plots with 10 plants each. Leaves were collected and the number of mites determined under laboratory conditions. The sequential sampling plan was developed in accordance with the Sequential Test Likelihood Ratio. The value 0.10 was pre-established for α and β representing type I and type II errors, respectively. The level of control adopted was six mites per 12 cm2. The operating characteristic curve and the curve of maximum expected sample were determined. Two lines were generated: the upper one, when the condition for chemical control is recommended (S1 = 23.3080 + 2.1972); and the lower, when chemical control is not recommended (S0 = -23.3080 + 2.1972). Sample size for the decision-making process to control T. heveae requires 6 to 18 plants. © 2013 Sociedade Entomológica do Brasil.

Avaliação dos efeitos do aparelho Herbst Splint metálico, no tratamento da má oclusão classe II divisão 1, após o surto de crescimento pubertário

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Perfil de sobrevida e alterações no ultrassom transfontanelar em prematuros menores que 32 semanas

Pós-graduação em Ginecologia, Obstetrícia e Mastologia - FMB

Effects of therapeutic approach on the neonatal evolution of very low birth weight infants with patent ductus arteriosus

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A note on the local power of the LR, Wald, score and gradient tests

This paper examines the local power of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient tests under the presence of a scalar parameter, phi say, that is orthogonal to the remaining parameters. We show that some of the coefficients that define the local powers remain unchanged regardless of whether phi is known or needs to be estimated, where as the others can be written as the sum of two terms, the first of which being the corresponding term obtained as if phi were known, and the second, an additional term yielded by the fact that phi is unknown. The contribution of each set of parameters on the local powers of the tests can then be examined. Various implications of our main result are stated and discussed. Several examples are presented for illustrative purposes

Local power properties of some asymptotic tests in symmetric linear regression models

In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions, up to order n(-1/2) and under a sequence of Pitman alternatives, for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the class of symmetric linear regression models. This is a wide class of models which encompasses the t model and several other symmetric distributions with longer-than normal tails. The asymptotic distributions of all four statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters. Furthermore, in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests in this class of models, Monte Carlo simulations are presented. An empirical application to a real data set is considered for illustrative purposes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Local power and size properties of the LR, Wald, score and gradient tests in dispersion models

We derive asymptotic expansions for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the class of dispersion models, under a sequence of Pitman alternatives. The asymptotic distributions of these statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the precision parameter. Based on these nonnull asymptotic expansions, the power of all four tests, which are equivalent to first order, are compared. Furthermore, in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests in this class of models, Monte Carlo simulations are presented. An empirical application to a real data set is considered for illustrative purposes. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Beiträge zur Modellierung von Parallelrechnern

Diese Arbeit versteht sich als Beitrag zur Modellierung von Parallelrechnern. Ein solcher Parallelrechner kann als makroskopisches physikalisches dynamisches System mit einer sehr großen Anzahl von Freiheitsgraden, diskretem Zustandsraum und diskreter Zeit aufgefasst werden. Derartige Systeme werden von der Nichtlinearen Dynamik behandelt. Jede modellmäßige Behandlung eines Systems mit derart differenzierten Wechselwirkungen muss sich auf bestimmte, dem Ziel und Zweck der Untersuchung angepasste Aspekte beschränken. Dabei müssen sowohl allgemeine Vorstellungen als auch konkretes Wissen in ein mathematisch behandelbares Modell umgesetzt werden. Die in dieser Arbeit vorgestellten Beiträge zur Modellierung von Parallelrechnern dienen mehreren Zielen. Zum einen wird ein Modell kritisch untersucht und weiterentwickelt, das dazu dienen soll, die Ausführungszeit eines konkreten parallelen Programmes auf einem konkreten Parallelrechner brauchbar vorherzusagen. Zum anderen soll die Untersuchung eines konkreten Problems aus dem Bereich von Computerwissenschaft und -technik dazu genutzt werden, ein tieferes Verständnis für das zu modellierende System zu entwickeln und daraus neue Aspekte für die Modellierung dynamischer Systeme im Allgemeinen zu gewinnen. In dieser Arbeit wird gezeigt, dass es bei der Modellierung von Parallelrechnern notwendig ist, viele technische Konstruktionseigenschaften in das Modell zu integrieren. Diese aber folgen der sehr raschen Entwicklung der Technik auf diesem Gebiet. Damit Formulierung, Test und Validierung des Modells mit der Entwicklung des Objektbereiches Schritt halten können, müssen in Zukunft neue Modellierungsverfahren entwickelt und angewendet werden, die bei Änderungen im Objektbereich eine rasche Anpassung ermöglichen. Diese Untersuchung entspricht einem interdisziplinären Ansatz, in dem einerseits Inhalte der Computerwissenschaften und andererseits Grundmethoden der experimentellen Physik verwendet werden. Dazu wurden die Vorhersagen der abstrakten Modelle mit den experimentell gewonnen Messergebnissen von realen Systemen verglichen. Auf dieser Basis wird gezeigt, dass der hierarchische Aufbau des Speichers Einflüsse von mehreren Größenordnungen auf die Ausführungsgeschwindigkeit einer Anwendung ausüben kann. Das im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit entwickelte Modell der einzelnen Rechenknoten eines Parallelrechners gibt diese Effekte innerhalb eines relativen Vorhersagefehlers von nur wenigen Prozent korrekt wieder.

Cardiac troponin testing and the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. The SWIss Venous ThromboEmbolism Registry (SWIVTER)

A low simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI), defined as age ≤80 years and absence of systemic hypotension, tachycardia, hypoxia, cancer, heart failure, and lung disease, identifies low-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). It is unknown whether cardiac troponin testing improves the prediction of clinical outcomes if the sPESI is not low. In the prospective Swiss Venous Thromboembolism Registry, 369 patients with acute PE and a troponin test (conventional troponin T or I, highly sensitive troponin T) were enrolled from 18 hospitals. A positive test result was defined as a troponin level above the manufacturers assay threshold. Among the 106 (29%) patients with low sPESI, the rate of mortality or PE recurrence at 30 days was 1.0%. Among the 263 (71%) patients with high sPESI, 177 (67%) were troponin-negative and 86 (33%) troponin-positive; the rate of mortality or PE recurrence at 30 days was 4.6% vs. 12.8% (p=0.015), respectively. Overall, risk assessment with a troponin test (hazard ratio [HR] 3.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38-8.37; p=0.008) maintained its prognostic value for mortality or PE recurrence when adjusted for sPESI (HR 5.80, 95%CI 0.76-44.10; p=0.09). The combination of sPESI with a troponin test resulted in a greater area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.63-0.81) than sPESI alone (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.57-0.68) (p=0.023). In conclusion, although cardiac troponin testing may not be required in patients with a low sPESI, it adds prognostic value for early death and recurrence for patients with a high sPESI.

Tomographic measurements of O. umbonatus and N. truempyi during the PETM and ETM-2 at ODP Sites 208-1262 and 208-1263

Predicting the impact of ongoing anthropogenic CO2 emissions on calcifying marine organisms is complex, owing to the synergy between direct changes (acidification) and indirect changes through climate change (e.g., warming, changes in ocean circulation, and deoxygenation). Laboratory experiments, particularly on longer-lived organisms, tend to be too short to reveal the potential of organisms to acclimatize, adapt, or evolve and usually do not incorporate multiple stressors. We studied two examples of rapid carbon release in the geological record, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (~53.2 Ma) and the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55.5 Ma), the best analogs over the last 65 Ma for future ocean acidification related to high atmospheric CO2 levels. We use benthic foraminifers, which suffered severe extinction during the PETM, as a model group. Using synchrotron radiation X-ray tomographic microscopy, we reconstruct the calcification response of survivor species and find, contrary to expectations, that calcification significantly increased during the PETM. In contrast, there was no significant response to the smaller Eocene Thermal Maximum 2, which was associated with a minor change in diversity only. These observations suggest that there is a response threshold for extinction and calcification response, while highlighting the utility of the geological record in helping constrain the sensitivity of biotic response to environmental change.