资源流动的环境效应(英文)

21世纪,中国的人口和经济的持续增长面临着资源短缺和生态脆弱的限制。提高资源利用效率和消减资源利用引起的环境影响是学术界和决策者面临的新课题。本文从资源流动的视角研究资源利用过程及其引起的环境影响。我们把资源流动过程分解为开采、加工、转化、消费等几个关键环节,评价其资源利用效率和环境影响,并寻求改善的途径。因其资源消耗量大、生态环境影响严重,我们选取了林木、煤炭及石油研究其资源与产品流动及其环境影响。林木产品的产量、进出口量和消费量数据来自中国森林统计年鉴(1949-2001)。煤炭、石油的开采量、进出口

Spatial and temporal flows of China's forest resources: Development of a framework for evaluating resource efficiency

Science & Technology Basic Work Program of China: Scientific Survey of the Middle-lower Reaches of Lantsang River and the Great Shangri-La Region [2008FY110300]; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program): Ecosystem Services and Ecological Safety of the Major Terrestrial Ecosystems of China [2009CB421106]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [30670374]; EU ; European Commission, DG Research [003874]

Effects of nitrogen fertilization on soil respiration in temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia, China

Nitrogen addition to soil can play a vital role in influencing the losses of soil carbon by respiration in N-deficient terrestrial ecosystems. The aim of this study was to clarify the effects of different levels of nitrogen fertilization (HN, 200 kg N ha(-1) year(-1); MN, 100 kg N ha(-1) year(-1); LN, 50 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)) on soil respiration compared with non-fertilization (CK, 0 kg N ha(-1) year(-1)), from July 2007 to September 2008, in temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia, China. Results showed that N fertilization did not change the seasonal patterns of soil respiration, which were mainly controlled by soil heat-water conditions. However, N fertilization could change the relationships between soil respiration and soil temperature, and water regimes. Soil respiration dependence on soil moisture was increased by N fertilization, and the soil temperature sensitivity was similar in the treatments of HN, LN, and CK treatments (Q (10) varied within 1.70-1.74) but was slightly reduced in MN treatment (Q (10) = 1.63). N fertilization increased soil CO2 emission in the order MN > HN > LN compared with the CK treatment. The positive effects reached a significant level for HN and MN (P < 0.05) and reached a marginally significant level for LN (P = 0.059 < 0.1) based on the cumulative soil respiration during the 2007 growing season after fertilization (July-September 2007). Furthermore, the differences between the three fertilization treatments and CK reached the very significant level of 0.01 on the basis of the data during the first entire year after fertilization (July 2007-June 2008). The annual total soil respiration was 53, 57, and 24% higher than in the CK plots (465 g m(-2) year(-1)). However, the positive effects did not reach the significant level for any treatment in the 2008 growing season after the second year fertilization (July-September 2008, P > 0.05). The pairwise differences between the three N-level treatments were not significant in either year (P > 0.05).

Modeling trophic positions of the alpine meadow ecosystem combining stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of single tissues or whole bodies were analyzed to establish trophic positions of main consumers living at the alpine meadow ecosystem in the Tibetan Plateau. The results demonstrated that delta C-13 and delta N-15 values of vertebrates showed great variations and ranged from -26.83 to -22.51 parts per thousand and from 2.33 to 8.44 parts per thousand, respectively. Plateau pika, root vole, plateau hare, infants of rodents and hatchlings of passerine bird species had the lowest delta C-13 and delta N-15 values. delta C-13 and delta N-15 values of omnivorous and insectivorous birds and amphibians showed intermediate. Carnivorous species, steppe polecat and Upland buzzard, and omnivorous Robin accentor and White wagtail possessed extremely higher VC and delta N-15 values. Omnivorous birds captured in earlier year had significantly less negative delta C-13 and greater delta N-15 values than those captured later. Based on steady angular enrichment between trophic levels, an "alpha and vector model" combing delta C-13 and delta N-15 values was introduced to reveal trophic positions, the results indicated that Tibetan sheep, Tibetan yak, plateau pika, root vole, plateau hare, infants of small rodents showed the lowest trophic positions (TP 1.81-2.38). While omnivorous and insectivorous birds, their hatchlings and amphibians showed intermediate trophic positions (TP 2.06-2.89), carnivorous species steppe polecat and Upland buzzard, migrant birds possessed extremely higher trophic positions (TP 2.89-3.05). The isotopic investigation of organisms and the introduced "alpha and vector model" successfully demonstrated the same trophic positions and diet prediction of consumers as nitrogen enrichment model at the alpine meadow ecosystem. Besides of this information, the "alpha and vector model" can also be incorporated into multiple isotope signatures to infer trophic relationships. This angular enrichment model has the potential to address basic ecological questions, such as trophic structure, trophic dynamics, and energy flow in other terrestrial ecosystems of properly handled. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nitrogen deposition and carbon sequestration in alpine meadows

Nitrogen deposition experiments were carried out in alpine meadow ecosystems in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in China, in order to explore the contribution of nitrogen deposition to carbon sequestration in alpine meadows. Two methods were used in this respect. First, we used the allocation of N-15 tracer to soil and plant pools. Second, we used increased root biomass observed in the nitrogen-amended plots. Calculating enhanced carbon storage, we considered the net soil CO2 emissions exposed to nitrogen deposition in alpine meadows. Our results show that nitrogen deposition can enhance the net soil CO2 emissions, and thus offset part of carbon uptake by vegetation and soils. It means that we have to be cautious to draw a conclusion when we estimate the contribution of nitrogen deposition to carbon sequestration based on the partitioning of N-15 tracer in terrestrial ecosystems, in particular in N-limited ecosystems. Even if we assess the contribution of nitrogen deposition to carbon sequestration based on increased biomass exposed to nitrogen deposition in terrestrial ecosystems, likewise, we have to consider the effects of nitrogen deposition on the soil CO2 emissions.

黄土中主要温室气体组分特征

Scientists have paid much attention to the greenhouse effects and the greenhouse gases for the fact of global warming. There are many uncertainties in the prediction of future climatic change. One of the important reasons causing the uncertainties is insufficient researches of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, especially, there is a missing sink in the global carbon cycle. The recent researches proposal that there may be an important carbon sink in the middle-latitude terrestrial ecosystems (vegetation and soil) in the North Hemisphere, despite that there is much disputation about its position and amplitude. Chinese loess is located in the middle latitude area in the North Hemisphere, what kind of role does it play in and how does it influence on the balance of the global greenhouse gases budget? For this reason, many samples were taken and analyzed from wide range and multi-stratum of Chinese loess to understand characteristics of major greenhouse gases in loess and loess possible effect on global greenhouse gas budget. Using self-made spiral corer, we totally took 81 gas samples and 65 soil samples from 7 loess profiles in China such as Zhaitang loess section of Beijing, Pianguan, Xingxian, Lishi, Puxian, Jishan loess section of Shanxi Province, and Luochuan loess section of Shaanxi Province. The gas concentrations for CO_2, CH_4 and N_2O, the contents of N_2, O_2 and carbonate, and the carbon isotopic compositions of CO_2 and carbonate in loess strata sequences are observed and measured. In addition, 19 gas samples data of the Weinan loess section, Shaanxi Province are combination with this research to study characteristics of greenhouse gases in loess. This research indicates that (1) the free gases in loess are neither paleo-atmospheric gases nor modern atmospheric gases; (2) the concentrations of CO_2, CH_4 and N_2O in loess are higher than atmospheric level; (3) the δ~(13)C of loess CO_2 shows that the CO_2 in loess mainly comes from the oxygenolysis of organic matters, but because of isotopic exchange with carbonate in loess, the carbon isotopic exchange with carbonate in loess, the carbon isotopic compositions of loess CO_2 are much more heavier than organic original CO_2; (4) the concentration of CH_4 in Malan loess is lower because it is not favorable for the decomposition of anaerobic bacteria in the Malan Loess; (5) estimation of the total amount of the carbonate in loess reveals that loess is a huge carbon reservoir (about 850PgC). In addition, the impact of the deuterogenic carbonatization during the loess accumulation on the global carbon cycle was discussed, and the preliminary conclusion is that the research work is still not enough to evaluate the effect of loess on the sources and sinks of the anthropogenic CO_2.

末次盛冰期以来中国陆地生态系统碳储量变化研究

Carbon is an essential element for life, food and energy. It is also a key element in the greenhouse gases and therefore plays a vital role in climatic changes. The rapid increase in atmospheric concentration of CO_2 over the past 150 years, reaching current concentrations of about 370 ppmv, corresponds with combustion of fossii fuels since the beginning of the industrial age. Conversion of forested land to agricultural use has also redistributed carbon from plants and soils to the atmosphere. These human activities have significantly altered the global carbon cycle. Understanding the consequences of these activities in the coming decades is critical for formulating economic, energy, technology, trade, and security policies that will affect civilization for generations. Under the auspices of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), several large international scientific efforts are focused on elucidating the various aspects of the global carbon cycle of the past decade. It is only possible to balance the global carbon cycle for the 1990s if there is net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems of around 2 Pg C/a. There are now some independent, direct evidences for the existence of such a sink. Policymarkers involved in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN-FCCC) are striving to reach consensuses on a 'safe path' for future emissions, the credible predictions on where and how long the terrestrial sink will either persist at its current level, or grow/decline in the future, are important to advice the policy process. The changes of terrestrial carbon storage depend not only on human activities, but also on biogeochemical and climatological processes and their interaction with the carbon cycles. In this thesis, the climate-induced changes and human-induced changes of carbon storage in China since the past 20,000 years are examined. Based on the data of the soil profiles investigated during China's Second National Soil Survey (1979-1989), the forest biomass measured during China's Fourth National Forest Resource Inventory (1989-1993), the grass biomass investigated during the First National Grassland Resource Survey (1980-1991), and the data collected from a collection of published literatures, the current terrestrial carbon storage in China is estimated to -144.1 Pg C, including -136.8 Pg C in soil and -7.3 Pg C in vegetation. The soil organic (SOC) and inorganic carbon (SIC) storage are -78.2 Pg C and -58.6 Pg C, respectively. In the vegetation reservoir, the forest carbon storage is -5.3 Pg C, and the other of-1.4 Pg C is in the grassland. Under the natural conditions, the SOC, SIC, forest and grassland carbon storage are -85.3 Pg C, -62.6 Pg C, -24.5 Pg C and -5.3 Pg C, respectively. Thus, -29.6 Pg C organic carbon has been lost due to land use with a decrease of -20.6%. At the same time, the SIC storage also has been decreased by -4.0 Pg C (-6.4%). These suggest that human activity has caused significant carbon loss in terrestrial carbon storage of China, especially in the forest ecosystem (-76% loss). Using the Paleocarbon Model (PCM) developed by Wu et al. in this paper, total terrestrial organic carbon storage in China in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was -114.8 Pg C, including -23.1 Pg C in vegetation and -86.7 Pg C in soil. At the Middle Holocene (MH), the vegetation, soil and total carbon were -37.3 Pg C, -93.9 Pg C and -136.0 Pg C, respectively. This implies a gain of-21.2 Pg C in the terrestrial carbon storage from LGM to HM mainly due to the temperature increase. However, a loss of-14.4 Pg C of terrestrial organic carbon occurred in China under the current condition (before 1850) compared with the MH time, mainly due to the precipitation decrease associated with the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon. These results also suggest that the terrestrial ecosystem in China has a substantial potential in the restoration of carbon storage. This might be expected to provide an efficient way to mitigate the greenhouse warming through land management practices. Assuming that half of the carbon loss in the degraded terrestrial ecosystem in current forest and grass areas are restored during the next 50 years or so, the terrestrial ecosystem in China may sequestrate -12.0 Pg of organic carbon from the atmosphere, which represents a considerable offset to the industry's CO2 emission. If the ' Anthropocene' Era will be another climate optimum like MH due to the greenhouse effect, the sequestration would be increased again by -4.3 - 9.0 Pg C in China.

碳、氧稳定同位素分析在古环境研究中的应用

A number of proxy records of paleoenvironment using stable isotopes could show the history of past environmental changes. These archives include peat and lake sediments, loess-paleosot sequence, fossil mammals and stalagmite, and so on. The stable isotopic composition of carbonate and organic matter and frequency magnetic susceptibility from Tianshuigou and Yuanlei loess-palesol sequence can be used to give estimates of the paleoenvironmental history of Dali, and even of the whole Chinese Loess Plateau during the last 250ka. Features of the High Temperature and Large Precipitation Event in the Tibet Plateau and its adjacent area during 40~30kaBP had been studied by Professor Shi Y. In this dissertation, its impact on Chinese Loess Plateau has been discussed again. Carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios, magnetic susceptibility and frequency magnetic susceptibility in Tianshuigou and Yuanlei profiles show that the Event in this area is not so stronger as the Tibet Plateau. The carbon isotopic composition of organic matter in Tianshuigou, Yuanlei, dingcun and Jingcun loess-palesol sequences are indicative of major changes in the paleovagetation between terrace and plain of the Chinese Loess Plateau. Water is one of the most important factors adjusting the relative biomass of C4 plant in terrestrial ecosystems. Stable carbon isotope ratio of vertebrate tooth enamel is used increasingly to reconstruct environmental and ecological information modern and ancient ecosystems. The SI3C value of tooth enamel bioapatites can distinguish between browsers and grazers. Data from typical grassland of Inter Mongolia, the Alpine meadow of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Yaluzangbu Great Canyon indicate that diets of mammals could record the relative biomass of C4 plant only in the C4 dominated ecosystem. In a C3 dominated ecosystem, diet of mammals would include more C3 plants than vegetation. According to Professor Cerling, proxy records from North and South America, Africa and Pakistan show that at the end of the Miocene (between 8Ma to 6 Ma) there was a global expansion of CA biomass, probably when atmospheric CO2 levels declined. Thus, "C4 world" and "CO2 starvation" are put forward. In this dissertation, carbon isotopes of fossil tooth such as Equus sanmeniensis and Hipparion chiai from Linxia, China reveal that there is a C3 dominated ecosystem in the late Miocene. Diets of ancient mammals in Linxia are not evidence of global expansion of C4 biomass.

内蒙古草地植被群落生物量的梯度特征研究

Relationship between biology and environment is always the theme of ecology. Transect is becoming one of the important methods in studies on relationship between global change and terrestrial ecosystems, especially for analysis of its driving factors. Inner Mongolia Grassland is the most important in China Grassland Transect brought forward by Yu GR. In this study, changes in grassland community biomass along gradients of weather conditions in Inner Mongolia was researched by the method of transect. Methods of regression about biomass were also compared. The transect was set from Eerguna county to Alashan county (38° 07' 35" ~50° 12' 20" N, 101° 55' 25" -120° 20' 46" E) in Inner Mongolia, China. The sample sites were mainly chosen along the gradient of grassland type, meadow steppe-* typical steppe-*desert steppe-*steppification desert-^desert. The study was carried out when grassland community biomass got the peak in August or September, 2003 and 2004. And data of 49 sample sites was gotten, which included biomass, mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, accumulated temperature above zero, annual hours of sunshine and other statistical and descriptive data. The aboveground biomass was harvested, and the belowground biomass was obtained by coring (30 cm deep). Then all the biomass samples were dried within (80 + 5) °C in oven and weighted. The conclusion is as follows: 1) From the northeast to the southwest in Inner Mongolia, along the gradient of grassland type, meadow steppe-*typical steppe-*desert steppe-*steppification desert-* desert, the cover degree of vegetation community reduces. 2) By unitary regression analysis, biomass is negatively correlated with mean annual temperature, s^CTC accumulated temperature, ^10°C accumulated temperature and annual hours of sunshine, among which mean annual temperature is crucial, and positively with mean annual precipitation and mean annual relative humidity, and the correlation coefficient between biomass and mean annual relative humidity is higher. Altitude doesn't act on it evidently. Result of multiple regression analysis indicates that as the primary restrictive factor, precipitation affects biomass through complicated way on large scale, and its impaction is certainly important. Along the gradient of grassland type, total biomass reduces. The proportion of aboveground biomass to total biomass reduces and then increases after desert steppe. The trend of below ground biomass's proportion to total biomass is adverse to that of aboveground biomass. 3) Precipitation is not always the only driving factor along the transect for below-/aboveground biomass ratio of different vegetation type composed by different species, and distribution of temperature and precipitation is more important, which is much different among climatic regions, so that the trend of below-/aboveground biomass ratio along the grassland transect may change much through the circumscription of semiarid region and arid region. 4) Among reproductive allocation of aboveground biomass, only the proportion of stem in total biomass notably correlates to the given parameters. Stem/leaf biomass ratio decreases when longitude and latitude increase, caloric variables decrease, and variables about water increase from desert to meadow steppe. The change trends are good modeled by logarithm or binomial equations. 5) 0'-10 cm belowground biomass highly correlates to environmental parameters, whose proportion to total biomass changes most distinctly and increases along the gradient from the west to the east. The deeper belowground biomass responses to the environmental change on the adverse trend but not so sensitively as the surface layer. Because the change value of 0~10 cm belowground biomass is always more than that of below 10 cm along the gradient, the deference between them is balanced by aboveground biomass's change by the resource allocation equilibrium hypothesis.

Ecological effects of the North Atlantic oscillation

Climatic oscillations as reflected in atmospheric modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may be seen as a proxy for regulating forces in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Our review highlights the variety of climate processes related to the NAO and the diversity in the type of ecological responses that different biological groups can display. Available evidence suggests that the NAO influences ecological dynamics in both marine and terrestrial systems, and its effects may be seen in variation at the individual, population and community levels. The ecological responses to the NAO encompass changes in timing of reproduction, population dynamics, abundance, spatial distribution and interspecific relationships such as competition and predator-prey relationships. This indicates that local responses to large-scale changes may be more subtle than previously suggested. We propose that the NAO effects may be classified as three types: direct, indirect and integrated. Such a classification will help the design and interpretation of analyses attempting to relate ecological changes to the NAO and, possibly, to climate in general.

A global ocean observing system framework for sustainable development

Sustainable development depends on maintaining ecosystem services which are concentrated in coastal marine and estuarine ecosystems. Analyses of the science needed to manage human uses of ecosystem services have concentrated on terrestrial ecosystems. Our focus is on the provision of multidisciplinary data needed to inform adaptive, ecosystem-based approaches (EBAs) for maintaining coastal ecosystem services based on comparative ecosystem analyses. Key indicators of pressures on coastal ecosystems, ecosystem states and the impacts of changes in states on services are identified for monitoring and analysis at a global coastal network of sentinel sites nested in the ocean-climate observing system. Biodiversity is targeted as the “master” indicator because of its importance to a broad spectrum of services. Ultimately, successful implementation of EBAs will depend on establishing integrated, holistic approaches to ocean governance that oversee the development of integrated, operational ocean observing systems based on the data and information requirements specified by a broad spectrum of stakeholders for sustainable development. Sustained engagement of such a spectrum of stakeholders on a global scale is not feasible. The global coastal network will need to be customized locally and regionally based on priorities established by stakeholders in their respective regions. The E.U. Marine Strategy Framework Directive and the U.S. Recommendations of the Interagency Ocean Policy Task Force are important examples of emerging regional scale approaches. The effectiveness of these policies will depend on the co-evolution of ocean policy and the observing system under the auspices of integrated ocean governance.

North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls

A recent increase in sea temperature has established a new ecosystem dynamic regime in the North Sea. Climate-induced changes in decapods have played an important role. Here, we reveal a coincident increase in the abundance of swimming crabs and lesser black-backed gull colonies in the North Sea, both in time and in space. Swimming crabs are an important food source for lesser black-backed gulls during the breeding season. Inhabiting the land, but feeding mainly at sea, lesser black-backed gulls provide a link between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, since the bottom-up influence of allochthonous nutrient input from seabirds to coastal soils can structure the terrestrial food web. We, therefore, suggest that climate-driven changes in trophic interactions in the marine food web may also have ensuing ramifications for the coastal ecology of the North Sea.

In hot water: zooplankton and climate change

An overview is provided of the observed and potential future responses of zooplankton communities to global warming. I begin by describing the importance of zooplankton in ocean ecosystems and the attributes that make them sensitive beacons of climate change. Global warming may have even greater repercussions for marine ecosystems than for terrestrial ecosystems, because temperature influences water column stability, nutrient enrichment, and the degree of new production, and thus the abundance, size composition, diversity, and trophic efficiency of zooplankton. Pertinent descriptions of physical changes in the ocean in response to climate change are given as a prelude to a detailed discussion of observed impacts of global warming on zooplankton. These manifest as changes in the distribution of individual species and assemblages, in the timing of important life-cycle events, and in abundance and community structure. The most illustrative case studies, where climate has had an obvious, tangible impact on zooplankton and substantial ecosystem consequences, are presented. Changes in the distribution and phenology of zooplankton are faster and greater than those observed for terrestrial groups. Relevant projected changes in ocean conditions are then presented, followed by an exploration of potential future changes in zooplankton communities from the perspective of different modelling approaches. Researchers have used a range of modelling approaches on individual species and functional groups forced by output from climate models under future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. I conclude by suggesting some potential future directions in climate change research for zooplankton, viz. the use of richer zooplankton functional groups in ecosystem models; greater research effort in tropical systems; investigating climate change in conjunction with other human impacts; and a global zooplankton observing system.

Placing biodiversity in ecosystem models without getting lost in translation

A key challenge to progressing our understanding of biodiversity’s role in the sustenance of ecosystem function is the extrapolation of the results of two decades of dedicated empirical research to regional, global and future landscapes. Ecosystem models provide a platform for this progression, potentially offering a holistic view of ecosystems where, guided by the mechanistic understanding of processes and their connection to the environment and biota, large-scale questions can be investigated. While the benefits of depicting biodiversity in such models are widely recognized, its application is limited by difficulties in the transfer of knowledge from small process oriented ecology into macro-scale modelling. Here, we build on previous work, breaking down key challenges of that knowledge transfer into a tangible framework, highlighting successful strategies that both modelling and ecology communities have developed to better interact with one another. We use a benthic and a pelagic case-study to illustrate how aspects of the links between biodiversity and ecosystem process have been depicted in marine ecosystem models (ERSEM and MIRO), from data, to conceptualisation and model development. We hope that this framework may help future interactions between biodiversity researchers and model developers by highlighting concrete solutions to common problems, and in this way contribute to the advance of the mechanistic understanding of the role of biodiversity in marine (and terrestrial) ecosystems.

Disentangling the impacts of heat wave magnitude, duration and timing on the structure and diversity of sessile marine assemblages

Extreme climatic events, including heat waves (HWs) and severe storms, influence the structure of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Despite growing consensus that anthropogenic climate change will increase the frequency, duration and magnitude of extreme events, current understanding of their impact on communities and ecosystems is limited. Here, we used sessile invertebrates on settlement panels as model assemblages to examine the influence of HW magnitude, duration and timing on marine biodiversity patterns. Settlement panels were deployed in a marina in southwest UK for ≥5 weeks, to allow sufficient time for colonisation and development of sessile fauna, before being subjected to simulated HWs in a mesocosm facility. Replicate panel assemblages were held at ambient sea temperature (∼17 °C), or +3 °C or +5 °C for a period of 1 or 2 weeks, before being returned to the marina for a recovery phase of 2–3 weeks. The 10-week experiment was repeated 3 times, staggered throughout summer, to examine the influence of HW timing on community impacts. Contrary to our expectations, the warming events had no clear, consistent impacts on the abundance of species or the structure of sessile assemblages. With the exception of 1 high-magnitude long-duration HW event, warming did not alter not assemblage structure, favour non-native species, nor lead to changes in richness, abundance or biomass of sessile faunal assemblages. The observed lack of effect may have been caused by a combination of (1) the use of relatively low magnitude, realistic heat wave treatments compared to previous studies (2), the greater resilience of mature adult sessile fauna compared to recruits and juveniles, and (3) the high thermal tolerance of the model organisms (i.e., temperate fouling species, principally bryozoans and ascidians). Our study demonstrates the importance of using realistic treatments when manipulating climate change variables, and also suggests that biogeographical context may influence community-level responses to short-term warming events, which are predicted to increase in severity in the future.