Dimensions and determinants of upward mobility : a study based on longitudinal data from Delhi slums

This study based on two primary surveys of the same households in two different years (2007/08 and 2012) assesses the extent of inter-temporal change in income of the individual workers and makes an attempt to identify the factors which explain upward mobility in alternate econometric framework, envisaging endogeneity problem. It also encompasses a host of indicators of wellbeing and constructs the transition matrix to capture the extent of change over time at the household level. The findings are indicative of a rise in the income of workers across a sizeable percentage of households though many of them remained below the poverty line notwithstanding this increase. In fact, there is a wide spread deterioration in the wellbeing index constructed at the household level. Among several determinants of income rise two important policy prescriptions can be elicited. Inadequate education reduces the probability of upward mobility while education above a threshold level raises it. Savings are crucial for upward mobility impinging on the importance of asset creation. Views that entail neighbourhood spill-over effects also received validation. Besides, investment in housing and basic amenities turns out to be crucial for improvement in wellbeing levels.

Changes in three dimensional lumbo-pelvic kinematics and trunk muscle activity with speed and mode of locomotion

Background Control of the trunk is critical for locomotor efficiency. However, investigations of trunk muscle activity and three-dimensional lumbo-pelvic kinematics during walking and running remain scarce. Methods. Gait parameters and three-dimensional lumbo-pelvic kinematics were recorded in seven subjects. Electromyography recordings of abdominal and paraspinal muscles were made using fine-wire and surface electrodes as subjects walked on a treadmill at 1 and 2 ms(-1) and ran at 2, 3, 4 and 5 ms(-1). Findings. Kinematic data indicate that the amplitude but not timing of lumbo-pelvic motion changes with locomotor speed. Conversely, a change in locomotor mode is associated with temporal but not spatial adaptation in neuromotor strategy. That is, peak transverse plane lumbo-pelvic rotation occurs at foot strike during walking but prior to foot strike during running. Despite this temporal change, there is a strong correlation between the amplitude of transverse plane lumbo-pelvic rotation and stride length during walking and running. In addition, Jumbo-pelvic motion was asymmetrical during all locomotor tasks. Trunk muscle electromyography occurred biphasically in association with foot strike. Transversus abdominis was tonically active with biphasic modulation. Consistent with the kinematic data, electromyography activity of the abdominal muscles and the superficial fibres of multifidus increased with locomotor speed, and timing of peak activity of superficial multifidus and obliquus externus abdominis was modified in association with the temporal adaptation in lumbo-pelvic motion with changes in locomotor mode. Interpretation. These data provide evidence of the association between lumbo-pelvic motion and trunk muscle activity during locomotion at different speeds and modes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do predators aggregate in response to pest density in agroecosystems? Assessing within-field spatial patterns

1. The spatial heterogeneity of predator populations is an important component of ecological theories pertaining to predator-prey dynamics. Most studies within agricultural fields show spatial correlation (positive or negative) between mean predator numbers and prey abundance across a whole field over time but generally ignore the within-field spatial dimension. We used explicit spatial mapping to determine if generalist predators aggregated within a soybean field, the size of these aggregations and if predator aggregation was associated with pest aggregation, plant damage and predation rate. 2. The study was conducted at Gatton in the Lockyer Valley, 90 km west of Brisbane, Australia. Intensive sampling grids were used to investigate within-field spatial patterns. The first row of each grid was located in a lucerne field (10 m from interface) and the remaining rows were in an adjacent soybean field. At each point on the grid the abundance of foliage-dwelling and ground-dwelling pests and predators was measured, predation rates [using sentinel Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) egg cards] and plant damage were estimated. Eight grids were sampled across two summer cropping seasons (2000/01, 2001/02). 3. Predators exhibited strong spatial patterning with regions of high and low abundance and activity within what are considered to be uniform soybean fields. Ground-dwelling and foliage-dwelling predators were often aggregated in patches approximately 40 m across. 4. Lycosidae (wolf spiders) displayed aggregation and were consistently more abundant within the lucerne, with a decreasing trap catch with distance from the lucrene/soybean interface. This trend was consistent between subsequent grids in a single field and between fields. 5. The large amount of spatial variability in within-field arthropod abundance (pests and predators) and activity (egg predation and plant damage) indicates that whole field averages were misleading. This result has serious implications for sampling of arthropod abundance and pest management decision-making based on scouting data. 6. There was a great deal of temporal change in the significant spatial patterns observed within a field at each sampling time point during a single season. Predator and pest aggregations observed in these fields were generally not stable for the entire season. 7. Predator aggregation did not correlate consistently with pest aggregation, plant damage or predation rate. Spatial patterns in predator abundance were not associated consistently with any single parameter measured. The most consistent positive association was between foliage-dwelling predators and pests (significant in four of seven grids). Inferring associations between predators and prey based on an intensive one-off sampling grid is difficult, due to the temporal variability in the abundance of each group. 8. Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrated that generalist predator populations are rarely distributed randomly and field edges and adjacent crops can have an influence on within-field predator abundance. This must be considered when estimating arthropod (pest and predator) abundance from a set of samples taken at random locations within a field.

When do conservation planning methods deliver? Quantifying the consequences of uncertainty

The rapid global loss of biodiversity has led to a proliferation of systematic conservation planning methods. In spite of their utility and mathematical sophistication, these methods only provide approximate solutions to real-world problems where there is uncertainty and temporal change. The consequences of errors in these solutions are seldom characterized or addressed. We propose a conceptual structure for exploring the consequences of input uncertainty and oversimpli?ed approximations to real-world processes for any conservation planning tool or strategy. We then present a computational framework based on this structure to quantitatively model species representation and persistence outcomes across a range of uncertainties. These include factors such as land costs, landscape structure, species composition and distribution, and temporal changes in habitat. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using several reserve selection methods including simple rules of thumb and more sophisticated tools such as Marxan and Zonation. We present new results showing how outcomes can be strongly affected by variation in problem characteristics that are seldom compared across multiple studies. These characteristics include number of species prioritized, distribution of species richness and rarity, and uncertainties in the amount and quality of habitat patches. We also demonstrate how the framework allows comparisons between conservation planning strategies and their response to error under a range of conditions. Using the approach presented here will improve conservation outcomes and resource allocation by making it easier to predict and quantify the consequences of many different uncertainties and assumptions simultaneously. Our results show that without more rigorously generalizable results, it is very dif?cult to predict the amount of error in any conservation plan. These results imply the need for standard practice to include evaluating the effects of multiple real-world complications on the behavior of any conservation planning method.

Multiple component patient safety intervention in English hospitals:controlled evaluation of second phase

Objective: To independently evaluate the impact of the second phase of the Health Foundation's Safer Patients Initiative (SPI2) on a range of patient safety measures. Design: A controlled before and after design. Five substudies: survey of staff attitudes; review of case notes from high risk (respiratory) patients in medical wards; review of case notes from surgical patients; indirect evaluation of hand hygiene by measuring hospital use of handwashing materials; measurement of outcomes (adverse events, mortality among high risk patients admitted to medical wards, patients' satisfaction, mortality in intensive care, rates of hospital acquired infection). Setting: NHS hospitals in England. Participants: Nine hospitals participating in SPI2 and nine matched control hospitals. Intervention The SPI2 intervention was similar to the SPI1, with somewhat modified goals, a slightly longer intervention period, and a smaller budget per hospital. Results: One of the scores (organisational climate) showed a significant (P=0.009) difference in rate of change over time, which favoured the control hospitals, though the difference was only 0.07 points on a five point scale. Results of the explicit case note reviews of high risk medical patients showed that certain practices improved over time in both control and SPI2 hospitals (and none deteriorated), but there were no significant differences between control and SPI2 hospitals. Monitoring of vital signs improved across control and SPI2 sites. This temporal effect was significant for monitoring the respiratory rate at both the six hour (adjusted odds ratio 2.1, 99% confidence interval 1.0 to 4.3; P=0.010) and 12 hour (2.4, 1.1 to 5.0; P=0.002) periods after admission. There was no significant effect of SPI for any of the measures of vital signs. Use of a recommended system for scoring the severity of pneumonia improved from 1.9% (1/52) to 21.4% (12/56) of control and from 2.0% (1/50) to 41.7% (25/60) of SPI2 patients. This temporal change was significant (7.3, 1.4 to 37.7; P=0.002), but the difference in difference was not significant (2.1, 0.4 to 11.1; P=0.236). There were no notable or significant changes in the pattern of prescribing errors, either over time or between control and SPI2 hospitals. Two items of medical history taking (exercise tolerance and occupation) showed significant improvement over time, across both control and SPI2 hospitals, but no additional SPI2 effect. The holistic review showed no significant changes in error rates either over time or between control and SPI2 hospitals. The explicit case note review of perioperative care showed that adherence rates for two of the four perioperative standards targeted by SPI2 were already good at baseline, exceeding 94% for antibiotic prophylaxis and 98% for deep vein thrombosis prophylaxis. Intraoperative monitoring of temperature improved over time in both groups, but this was not significant (1.8, 0.4 to 7.6; P=0.279), and there were no additional effects of SPI2. A dramatic rise in consumption of soap and alcohol hand rub was similar in control and SPI2 hospitals (P=0.760 and P=0.889, respectively), as was the corresponding decrease in rates of Clostridium difficile and meticillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection (P=0.652 and P=0.693, respectively). Mortality rates of medical patients included in the case note reviews in control hospitals increased from 17.3% (42/243) to 21.4% (24/112), while in SPI2 hospitals they fell from 10.3% (24/233) to 6.1% (7/114) (P=0.043). Fewer than 8% of deaths were classed as avoidable; changes in proportions could not explain the divergence of overall death rates between control and SPI2 hospitals. There was no significant difference in the rate of change in mortality in intensive care. Patients' satisfaction improved in both control and SPI2 hospitals on all dimensions, but again there were no significant changes between the two groups of hospitals. Conclusions: Many aspects of care are already good or improving across the NHS in England, suggesting considerable improvements in quality across the board. These improvements are probably due to contemporaneous policy activities relating to patient safety, including those with features similar to the SPI, and the emergence of professional consensus on some clinical processes. This phenomenon might have attenuated the incremental effect of the SPI, making it difficult to detect. Alternatively, the full impact of the SPI might be observable only in the longer term. The conclusion of this study could have been different if concurrent controls had not been used.

Population dynamics of the Sycamore Lace Bug (Corythucha Ciliata, Say, Heteroptera: Tingidae) in Hungary

Based on the observation of more than 10 000 leaves of plane trees, four populations of Corythucha ciliata (Say, 1832) (Heteroptera: Tingidae) are investigated. After having introduced some parameters derived from the data, we draw spatial-temporal patterns and describe the seasonal population dynamics of Corythucha ciliata. Amongst others, the temporal change of the density of population, the state plane of larvae–adults, the inclination to accumulate, and the intraspecific competition are examined. Population and biomass dynamics is characterized for populations with and without limited nutrient source in case of different weather circumstances and effects.

Methane and stable isotope record of ice core EDML from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

Precise knowledge of the phase relationship between climate changes in the two hemispheres is a key for understanding the Earth's climate dynamics. For the last glacial period, ice core studies have revealed strong coupling of the largest millennial-scale warm events in Antarctica with the longest Dansgaard-Oeschger events in Greenland through the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. It has been unclear, however, whether the shorter Dansgaard-Oeschger events have counterparts in the shorter and less prominent Antarctic temperature variations, and whether these events are linked by the same mechanism. Here we present a glacial climate record derived from an ice core from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, which represents South Atlantic climate at a resolution comparable with the Greenland ice core records. After methane synchronization with an ice core from North Greenland, the oxygen isotope record from the Dronning Maud Land ice core shows a one-to-one coupling between all Antarctic warm events and Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger events by the bipolar seesaw. The amplitude of the Antarctic warm events is found to be linearly dependent on the duration of the concurrent stadial in the North, suggesting that they all result from a similar reduction in the meridional overturning circulation.

Concentrations of brominated and chlorinated contaminants in adipose tissue of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) between 1991-2007

Adipose tissue was sampled from the western Hudson Bay (WHB) subpopulation of polar bears at intervals from 1991 to 2007 to examine temporal trends of PCB and OCP levels both on an individual and sum-contaminant basis. We also determined levels and temporal trends of emerging polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) and other current-use brominated flame retardants. Over the 17-year period, sum DDT (and p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDD, p,p'-DDT) decreased (-8.4%/year); alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (alpha-HCH) decreased (-11%/year); beta-HCH increased ( + 8.3%/year); and sum PCB and sum chlordane (CHL), both contaminants at highest concentrations in all years (>1 ppm), showed no distinct trends even when compared to previous data for this subpopulation dating back to 1968. Some of the less persistent PCB congeners decreased significantly (-1.6%/year to -6.3%/year), whereas CB153 levels tended to increase (+ 3.3%/year). Parent CHLs (c-nonachlor, t-nonachlor) declined, whereas non-monotonic trends were detected for metabolites (heptachlor epoxide, oxychlordane). sum chlorobenzene, octachlorostyrene, sum mirex, sum MeSO2-PCB and dieldrin did not significantly change. Increasing sum PBDE levels (+13%/year) matched increases in the four consistently detected congeners, BDE47, BDE99, BDE100 and BDE153. Although no trend was observed, total-(alpha)-HBCD was only detected post-2000. Levels of the highest concentration brominated contaminant, BB153, showed no temporal change. As long-term ecosystem changes affecting contaminant levels may also affect contaminant patterns, we examined the influence of year (i.e., aging or "weathering" of the contaminant pattern), dietary tracers (carbon stable isotope ratios, fatty acid patterns) and biological (age/sex) group on congener/metabolite profiles. Patterns of PCBs, CHLs and PBDEs were correlated with dietary tracers and biological group, but only PCB and CHL patterns were correlated with year. DDT patterns were not associated with any explanatory variables, possibly related to local DDT sources. Contaminant pattern trends may be useful in distinguishing the possible role of ecological/diet changes on contaminant burdens from expected dynamics due to atmospheric sources and weathering.

Résultats de la mise en oeuvre des réseaux REPHY et SRN – Zones côtières de la Manche orientale et de la baie sud de la Mer du Nord – Bilan de l’année 2015

The coastal zone of the Nord – Pas de Calais / Picardie showed dysfonctioning patterns of the ecosystem considered to be link to human activities along shores. These results in regular massive development of species, such as the phytoplanktonic seaweed, Phaeocystis sp. which life cycle was partly linked to nutrients availability and consequently to anthropogenic inputs. As part of the evaluation of the influence of continental inputs on the marine environment (nitrates, phosphates,…) and on potential eutrophication processes, of the estimation of the efficiency of the sewage treatments plants in the possible elimination of dumpings and in order to establish a long-term survey to follow up the change in coastal waters quality, the regional nutrients monitoring network was implemented by Ifremer in collaboration with the Agence de l'Eau Artois-Picardie in 1992 in order to complete the REPHY (Phytoplankton and Phycotoxins) monitoring programme. This study reports the main results for the year 2015 in terms of temporal change of the main physico-chemical and biological parameters characteristic of water masses sampled along three transects offshore Dunkerque, Boulogne-sur-Mer and the Bay of Somme.

Landscape properties mediate the homogenization of bird assemblages during climatic extremes

Extreme weather events, such as drought, have marked impacts on biotic communities. In many regions, a predicted increase in occurrence of such events will be imposed on landscapes already heavily modified by human land use. There is an urgency, therefore, to understand the way in which the effects of such events may be exacerbated, or moderated, by different patterns of landscape change. We used empirical data on woodlanddependent birds in southeast Australia, collected during and after a severe drought, to document temporal change in the composition of bird assemblages in 24 landscapes (each 100 km2) representing a gradient in the cover of native wooded vegetation (from 60% to <2%). We examined (a) whether drought caused region-wide homogenization of the composition of landscape bird assemblages, and (b) whether landscape properties influenced the way assemblages changed in response to drought. To quantify change, we used pairwise indices of assemblage dissimilarity, partitioned into components that represented change in the richness of assemblages and change in the identity of constituent species (turnover). There was widespread loss of woodland birds in response to drought, with only partial recovery following drought-breaking rains. Region-wide, the composition of landscape assemblages became more different over time, primarily caused by turnover-related differentiation. The response of bird assemblages to drought varied between landscapes and was strongly associated with landscape properties. The extent of wooded vegetation had the greatest influence on assemblage change: landscapes with more native vegetation had more stable bird assemblages over time. However, for the component processes of richness- and turnoverrelated compositional change, measures of landscape productivity had a stronger effect. For example, landscapes with more riparian vegetation maintained more stable assemblages in terms of richness. These results emphasize the importance of the total extent of native vegetation, both overall cover and that occurring in productive parts of the landscape, for maintaining bird communities whose composition is resistant to severe drought. While extreme climatic events cannot be prevented, their effects can be ameliorated by managing the pattern of native vegetation in anthropogenic landscapes, with associated benefits for maintaining ecological processes and human well-being.

Spatial and temporal variability in midge (Nematocera) assemblages in shallow Finnish lakes (60−70 °N) : community-based modelling of past environmental change

Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.

Change detection and controlling forest information using multi-temporal Landsat TM imagery.

A method was developed for relative radiometric calibration of single multitemporal Landsat TM image, several multitemporal images covering each others, and several multitemporal images covering different geographic locations. The radiometricly calibrated difference images were used for detecting rapid changes on forest stands. The nonparametric Kernel method was applied for change detection. The accuracy of the change detection was estimated by inspecting the image analysis results in field. The change classification was applied for controlling the quality of the continuously updated forest stand information. The aim was to ensure that all the manmade changes and any forest damages were correctly updated including the attribute and stand delineation information. The image analysis results were compared with the registered treatments and the stand information base. The stands with discrepancies between these two information sources were recommended to be field inspected.

Temporal variability of forest communities: empirical estimates of population change in 4000 tree species

Long-term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6-28years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross-site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species-rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role.

Tracking Change in Northern Ireland Policing: Temporal Phases and Key Themes

Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to explore and explain the change process in Northern Ireland policing through an analysis of temporally bracketed change phases and key change delivery themes ranging from 1996 to 2012.

Design/methodology/approach
– The research approach adopted is process based, longitudinal and multi-method, utilising “temporal bracketing” to determine phases of change and conjunctural reasoning to unravel the systematic factors interacting over time, within the case.

Findings
– The paper identifies and temporally brackets four phases of change: “Tipping point”; “Implementation, Symbolic Modification and Resistance”; “Power Assisted Steering”; and “A Return to Turbulence”, identifies four themes that emerge from RUC-PSNI experience: the role of adaptive leadership; pace and sequencing of change implementation; sufficient resourcing; and the impact of external agents acting as boundary spanners, and comments on the prominence of these themes through the phases. The paper goes on to reflect upon how these phases and themes inform our understanding of organisational change within policing organisations generally and within politically pressurised transition processes.

Originality/value
– The contribution of the paper lies in the documentation of an almost unique organisational case in an environmentally forced change process. In this it contains lessons for other organisations facing similar, if less extreme challenges and presents an example of intense change analysed longitudinally.