Managing the complexity of information flow for construction small and medium-sized enterprises (CSMEs) using system dynamics and collaborative technologies

With the increase in e-commerce and the digitisation of design data and information,the construction sector has become reliant upon IT infrastructure and systems. The design and production process is more complex, more interconnected, and reliant upon greater information mobility, with seamless exchange of data and information in real time. Construction small and medium-sized enterprises (CSMEs), in particular,the speciality contractors, can effectively utilise cost-effective collaboration-enabling technologies, such as cloud computing, to help in the effective transfer of information and data to improve productivity. The system dynamics (SD) approach offers a perspective and tools to enable a better understanding of the dynamics of complex systems. This research focuses upon system dynamics methodology as a modelling and analysis tool in order to understand and identify the key drivers in the absorption of cloud computing for CSMEs. The aim of this paper is to determine how the use of system dynamics (SD) can improve the management of information flow through collaborative technologies leading to improved productivity. The data supporting the use of system dynamics was obtained through a pilot study consisting of questionnaires and interviews from five CSMEs in the UK house-building sector.

Using system dynamics for collaborative design : a case study

Background  In order to facilitate the collaborative design, system dynamics (SD) with a group modelling approach was used in the early stages of planning a new stroke unit. During six workshops a SD model was created in a multiprofessional group. Aim To explore to which extent and how the use of system dynamics contributed to the collaborative design process. Method A case study was conducted using several data sources. Results SD supported a collaborative design, by facilitating an explicit description of stroke care process, a dialogue and a joint understanding. The construction of the model obliged the group to conceptualise the stroke care and experimentation with the model gave the opportunity to reflect on care. Conclusion SD facilitated the collaborative design process and should be integrated in the early stages of the design process as a quality improvement tool.

Paradigm shift to enhanced water supply planning through augmented grids, scarcity pricing and adaptive factory water : a system dynamics approach

This paper details a system dynamics model developed to simulate proposed changes to water governance through the integration of supply, demand and asset management processes. To effectively accomplish this, interconnected feedback loops in tariff structures, demand levels and financing capacity are included in the model design, representing the first comprehensive life-cycle modelling of potable water systems. A number of scenarios were applied to Australia's populated South-east Queensland region, demonstrating that introducing temporary drought pricing (i.e. progressive water prices set inverse with availability), in conjunction with supply augmentation through rain-independent sources, is capable of efficiently providing water security in the future. Modelling demonstrated that this alternative tariff structure reduced demand in scarcity periods thereby preserving supply, whilst revenues are maintained to build new water supply infrastructure. In addition to exploring alternative tariffs, the potential benefits of using adaptive pressure-retarded osmosis desalination plants for both potable water and power generation was explored. This operation of these plants for power production, when they would otherwise be idle, shows promise in reducing their net energy and carbon footprints. Stakeholders in industry, government and academia were engaged in model development and validation. The constructed model displays how water resource systems can be reorganised to cope with systemic change and uncertainty.

Water security through scarcity pricing and reverse osmosis: a system dynamics approach

Water supply and demand planning is often conducted independently of social and economic strategies. There are presently no comprehensive life-cycle approaches to modelling urban water balances that incorporate economic feedbacks, such as tariff adjustment, which can in turn create a financing capacity for investment responses to low reservoir levels. This paper addresses this gap, and presents a system dynamics model that augments the usual water utility representation of the physical linkages of water grids, by adding inter-connected feedback loops in tariff structures, demand levels and financing capacity. The model, applied in the south-east Queensland region in Australia, enables simulation of alternatives and analysis of stocks and flows around a grid or portfolio of bulk supplies including an increasing proportion of rain-independent desalination plants. Such rain-independent water production plants complement the rain-dependent sources in the region and can potentially offer indefinite water security at a price. The study also shows how an alternative temporary drought pricing regime not only defers costly bulk supply infrastructure but actually generates greater price stability than traditional pricing approaches. The model has implications for water supply planners seeking to pro-actively plan, justify and finance portfolios of rain-dependent and rain-independent bulk water supply infrastructure. Interestingly, the modelling showed that a temporary drought pricing regime not only lowers the frequency and severity of water insecurity events but also reduces the long-run marginal cost of water supply for the region when compared to traditional reactive planning approaches that focus on restrictions to affect demand in scarcity periods.

CISR-ODE, A C plus plus framework with ODE solver for code based system dynamics simulation

Ordinary differential equations are used for modelling a wide range of dynamic systems. Even though there are many graphical software applications for this purpose, a fully customised solution for all problems is code-level programming of the model and solver. In this project, a free and open source C++ framework is designed to facilitate modelling in native code environment and fulfill the common simulation needs of control and many other engineering and science applications. The solvers of this project are obtained from ODEINT and specialised for Armadillo matrix library to provide an easy syntax and a fast execution. The solver code is minimised and its modification for users have become easier. There are several features added to the solvers such as controlling maximum step size, informing the solver about sudden input change and forcing custom times into the results and calling a custom method at these points. The comfort of the model designer, code readability, extendibility and model isolation have been considered in the structure of this framework. The application manages the output results, exporting and plotting them. Modifying the model has become more practical and a portion of corresponding codes are updated automatically. A set of libraries is provided for generation of output figures, matrix hashing, control system functions, profiling, etc. In this paper, an example of using this framework for a classical washout filter model is explained.

Tayloring Brazil: a system dynamics model for monetary policy feedback

The thesis introduces a system dynamics Taylor rule model of new Keynesian nature for monetary policy feedback in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes con-siders gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and inflation. The model closely tracks the 2004 to 2011 business cycle and outlines the endogenous feedback between the real interest rate, GDP growth and inflation. The model identifies a high degree of endogenous feedback for monetary policy and inflation, while GDP growth remains highly exposed to exogenous eco-nomic conditions. The results also show that the majority of the monetary policy moves during the sample period was related to GDP growth, despite higher coefficients of inflation parameters in the Taylor rule. This observation challenges the intuition that inflation target-ing leads to a dominance of monetary policy moves with respect to inflation. Furthermore, the results suggest that backward looking price-setting with respect to GDP growth has been the dominant driver of inflation. Moreover, simulation exercises highlight the effects of the new BCB strategy initiated in August 2011 and also consider recession and inflation avoid-ance versions of the Taylor rule. In methodological terms, the Taylor rule model highlights the advantages of system dynamics with respect to nonlinear policies and to the stock-and-flow approach. In total, the strong historical fit and some counterintuitive observations of the Taylor rule model call for an application of the model to other economies.

Nebular gas drag and co-orbital system dynamics

Aims. We study trajectories of planetesimals whose orbits decay due to gas drag in a primordial solar nebula and are perturbed by the gravity of the secondary body on an eccentric orbit whose mass ratio takes values from mu(2) = 10(-7) to mu(2) = 10(-3) increasing ten times at each step. Each planetesimal ultimately suffers one of the three possible fates: (1) trapping in a mean motion resonance with the secondary body; (2) collision with the secondary body and consequent increase of its mass; or (3) diffusion after crossing the orbit of the secondary body.Methods. We take the Burlirsh-Stoer numerical algorithm in order to integrate the Newtonian equations of the planar, elliptical restricted three-body problem with the secondary body and the planetesimal orbiting the primary. It is assumed that there is no interaction among planetesimals, and also that the gas does not affect the orbit of the secondary body.Results. The results show that the optimal value of the gas drag constant k for the 1: 1 resonance is between 0.9 and 1.25, representing a meter size planetesimal for each AU of orbital radius. In this study, the conditions of the gas drag are such that in theory, L4 no longer exists in the circular case for a critical value of k that defines a limit size of the planetesimal, but for a secondary body with an eccentricity larger than 0.05 when mu(2) = 10(-6), it reappears. The decrease of the cutoff collision radius increase the difusions but does not affect the distribution of trapping. The contribution to the mass accretion of the secondary body is over 40% with a collision radius 0.05R(Hill) and less than 15% with 0.005R(Hill) for mu(2) = 10(-7). The trappings no longer occur when the drag constant k reachs 30. That means that the size limit of planetesimal trapping is 0.2 m per AU of orbital radius. In most cases, this accretion occurs for a weak gas drag and small secondary eccentricity. The diffusions represent most of the simulations showing that gas drag is an efficient process in scattering planetesimals and that the trapping of planetesimals in the 1: 1 resonance is a less probable fate. These results depend on the specific drag force chosen.