Will Extratropical Storms Intensify in a Warmer Climate?

Extratropical cyclones and how they may change in a warmer climate have been investigated in detail with a high-resolution version of the ECHAM5 global climate model. A spectral resolution of T213 (63 km) is used for two 32-yr periods at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and integrated for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Extremes of pressure, vorticity, wind, and precipitation associated with the cyclones are investigated and compared with a lower-resolution simulation. Comparison with observations of extreme wind speeds indicates that the model reproduces realistic values. This study also investigates the ability of the model to simulate extratropical cyclones by computing composites of intense storms and contrasting them with the same composites from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Composites of the time evolution of intense cyclones are reproduced with great fidelity; in particular the evolution of central surface pressure is almost exactly replicated, but vorticity, maximum wind speed, and precipitation are higher in the model. Spatial composites also show that the distributions of pressure, winds, and precipitation at different stages of the cyclone life cycle compare well with those from ERA-40, as does the vertical structure. For the twenty-first century, changes in the distribution of storms are very similar to those of previous study. There is a small reduction in the number of cyclones but no significant changes in the extremes of wind and vorticity in both hemispheres. There are larger regional changes in agreement with previous studies. The largest changes are in the total precipitation, where a significant increase is seen. Cumulative precipitation along the tracks of the cyclones increases by some 11% per track, or about twice the increase in global precipitation, while the extreme precipitation is close to the globally averaged increase in column water vapor (some 27%). Regionally, changes in extreme precipitation are even higher because of changes in the storm tracks.

Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: A recently declining center of action

This study investigates variability in the intensity of the wintertime Siberian high (SH) by defining a robust SH index (SHI) and correlating it with selected meteorological fields and teleconnection indices. A dramatic trend of -2.5 hPa decade(-1) has been found in the SHI between 1978 and 2001 with unprecedented (since 1871) low values of the SHI. The weakening of the SH has been confirmed by analyzing different historical gridded analyses and individual station observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and excluding possible effects from the conversion of surface pressure to SLP. SHI correlation maps with various meteorological fields show that SH impacts on circulation and temperature patterns extend far outside the SH source area extending from the Arctic to the tropical Pacific. Advection of warm air from eastern Europe has been identified as the main mechanism causing milder than normal conditions over the Kara and Laptev Seas in association with a strong SH. Despite the strong impacts of the variability in the SH on climatic variability across the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between the SHI and the main teleconnection indices of the Northern Hemisphere are weak. Regression analysis has shown that teleconnection indices are not able to reproduce the interannual variability and trends in the SH. The inclusion of regional surface temperature in the regression model provides closer agreement between the original and reconstructed SHI.

The diurnal cycle of convection and atmospheric tides in an aquaplanet

The diurnal cycle of tropical convection and its relationship to the atmospheric tides is investigated using an aquaplanet GCM. The diurnal and semidiurnal harmonics of precipitation are both found to contribute significantly to the total diurnal variability of precipitation in the model, which is broadly consistent with observations of the diurnal cycle of convection over the open ocean. The semidiurnal tide is found to be the dominant forcing for the semidiurnal harmonic of precipitation. In contrast the diurnal tide plays only a small role in forcing the diurnal harmonic of precipitation, which is dominated by the variations in shortwave and longwave heating. In both the diurnal and semidiurnal harmonics, the feedback onto the convection by the humidity tendencies due to the convection is found to be important in determining the phase of the harmonics. Further experiments show that the diurnal cycle of precipitation is sensitive to the choice of closure in the convection scheme. While the surface pressure signal of the simulated atmospheric tides in the model agree well with both theory and observations in their magnitude and phase, sensitivity experiments suggest that the role of the stratospheric ozone in forcing the semidiurnal tide is much reduced compared to theoretical predictions. Furthermore, the influence of the cloud radiative effects seems small. It is suggested that the radiative heating profile in the troposphere, associated primarily with the water vapor distribution, is more important than previously thought for driving the semidiurnal tide. However, this result may be sensitive to the vertical resolution and extent of the model.

Transient teleconnection event at the onset of a planet-encircling dust storm on Mars

We use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to study a transient teleconnection event at the onset of the 2001 planet-encircling dust storm on Mars, in terms of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). There are several differences between this and previous studies of atmospheric events using EOFs. First, instead of using a single variable such as surface pressure or geopotential height on a given pressure surface, we use a dataset describing the evolution in time of global and fully three-dimensional atmospheric fields such as horizontal velocity and temperature. These fields are produced by assimilating Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft into a Mars general circulation model. We use total atmospheric energy (TE) as a physically meaningful quantity which weights the state variables. Second, instead of adopting the EOFs to define teleconnection patterns as planetary-scale correlations that explain a large portion of long time-scale variability, we use EOFs to understand transient processes due to localised heating perturbations that have implications for the atmospheric circulation over distant regions. The localised perturbation is given by anomalous heating due to the enhanced presence of dust around the northern edge of the Hellas Planitia basin on Mars. We show that the localised disturbance is seemingly restricted to a small number (a few tens) of EOFs. These can be classified as low-order, transitional, or high-order EOFs according to the TE amount they explain throughout the event. Despite the global character of the EOFs, they show the capability of accounting for the localised effects of the perturbation via the presence of specific centres of action. We finally discuss possible applications for the study of terrestrial phenomena with similar characteristics.

Arctic oscillation or North Atlantic oscillation?

The definition and interpretation of the Arctic oscillation (AO) are examined and compared with those of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). It is shown that the NAO reflects the correlations between the surface pressure variability at its centers of action, whereas this is not the case for the AO. The NAO pattern can be identified in a physically consistent way in principal component analysis applied to various fields in the Euro-Atlantic region. A similar identification is found in the Pacific region for the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, but no such identification is found here for the AO. The AO does reflect the tendency for the zonal winds at 35° and 55°N to anticorrelate in both the Atlantic and Pacific regions associated with the NAO and PNA. Because climatological features in the two ocean basins are at different latitudes, the zonally symmetric nature of the AO does not mean that it represents a simple modulation of the circumpolar flow. An increase in the AO or NAO implies strong, separated tropospheric jets in the Atlantic but a weakened Pacific jet. The PNA has strong related variability in the Pacific jet exit, but elsewhere the zonal wind is similar to that related to the NAO. The NAO-related zonal winds link strongly through to the stratosphere in the Atlantic sector. The PNA-related winds do so in the Pacific, but to a lesser extent. The results suggest that the NAO paradigm may be more physically relevant and robust for Northern Hemisphere variability than is the AO paradigm. However, this does not disqualify many of the physical mechanisms associated with annular modes for explaining the existence of the NAO.

The NAO troposphere–stratosphere connection

Using monthly mean data, daily data, and theoretical arguments, relationships between surface pressure variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), tropopause height, and the strength of the stratospheric vortex are established. An increase in the NAO index leads to a stronger stratospheric vortex, about 4 days later, as a result of increased equatorward refraction of upward-propagating Rossby waves. At tropopause level the effects of the enhanced NAO index and stratospheric polar vortex are opposite, resulting in a lower tropopause over Iceland and a higher tropopause over the Arctic. The raising of the Arctic tropopause leads to a stretching and spinup of the tropospheric column and is therefore associated with a lowering of the surface pressure near the North Pole. For monthly mean data it is found that a standard deviation increase in the NAO index is associated with a 10% increase in the strength of the stratospheric vortex, as measured by potential vorticity at 500 K. A simple theoretical model predicts that this is associated with about 300-m elevation of the Arctic tropopause, as is observed, and a 5-hPa lowering of the surface pressure at the North Pole. The effects of the spinup of the tropospheric column may project on the NAO pattern so that the stratosphere acts as an integrator of the NAO index.

Puroindoline-b mutations control the lipid binding interactions in mixed puroindoline-a: puroindoline-b systems

The interactions have been investigated of puroindoline-a (Pin-a) and mixed protein systems of Pin-a and wild-type puroindoline-b (Pin-b+) or puroindoline-b mutants (G46S mutation (Pin bH) or W44R mutation (Pin-bS)) with condensed phase monolayers of an anionic phospholipid (L-α-dipalmitoylphosphatidyl-dl-glycerol (DPPG)) at the air/water interface. The interactions of the mixed systems were studied at three different concentration ratios of Pin-a:Pin-b, namely 3:1, 1:1 and 1:3 in order to establish any synergism in relation to lipid binding properties. Surface pressure measurements revealed that Pin-a interaction with DPPG monolayers led to an equilibrium surface pressure increase of 8.7 ± 0.6 mN m-1. This was less than was measured for Pin-a:Pin-b+ (9.6 to 13.4 mN m-1), but was significantly more than was measured for Pin-a:Pin-bH (4.0 to 6.2 mN m-1) or Pin-a:Pin-bS (3.8 to 6.3 mN m-1) over the complete range of concentration ratio. Consequently, surface pressure increases were shown to correlate to endosperm hardness phenotype, with puroindolines present in hard-textured wheat varieties yielding lower equilibrium surface pressure changes. Integrated amide I peak areas from corresponding external reflectance Fourier-transform infrared (ER-FTIR) spectra, used to indicate levels of protein adsorption to the lipid monolayers, showed that differences in adsorbed amount were less significant. The data therefore suggest that Pin-b mutants having single residue substitutions within their tryptophan-rich loop that are expressed in some hard-textured wheat varieties influence the degree of penetration of Pin-a and Pin-b into anionic phospholipid films. These findings highlight the key role of the tryptophan-rich loop in puroindoline-lipid interactions.

Single amino acid substitutions in puroindoline-b mutants influence lipid binding properties

External reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ER-FTIR) spectroscopy and surface pressure measurements have been used to characterize the interaction of wild-type puroindoline-b (Pin-b) and two mutant forms featuring single residue substitutions-namely, Gly-46 to Ser-46 (Pin-bH) and Trp-44 to Arg-44 (Pin-bS)-with condensed-phase monolayers of zwitterionic (L-alpha-dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine, DPPC) and anionic (L-alpha-dipalmitoylphosphatidyl-dl-glycerol, DPPG) phospholipids. The interaction with anionic DPPG monolayers, monitored by surface pressure isotherms, was influenced significantly by mutations in Pin-b (p < 0.05); wild-type Pin-b showed the highest surface pressure change of 10.6 +/- 1.0 mN m(-1), followed by Pin-bH (7.9 +/- 1.6 mN m(-1)) and Pin-bS (6.3 +/- 1.0 mN m(-1)), and the surface pressure isotherm kinetics were also different in each case. Integrated Amide I peak areas from corresponding ER-FTIR spectra confirmed the differences in adsorption kinetics, but also showed that differences in adsorbed amount were less significant, suggesting that mutations influence the degree of penetration into DPPG films. All Pin-b types showed evidence of interaction with DPPC films, detected as changes in surface pressure (5.6 +/- 1.1 mN m(-1)); however, no protein peaks were detected in the ER-FTIR spectra, which indicated that the interaction was via penetration with limited adsorption at the lipid/water interface. The expression of Pin-b mutants is linked to wheat endosperm hardness; therefore, the data presented here suggest that the lipid binding properties may be pivotal within the mechanism for this quality trait. In addition, the data suggest antimicrobial activities of Pin-b mutants would be lower than those of the wild-type Pin-b, because of decreased selectivity toward anionic phospholipids.

Structural analysis of PEO-PBO copolymer monolayers at the air-water interface

X-ray reflectivity (XR) and grazing incidence X-ray diffraction (GIXD) have been used to examine an oxyethylene-b-oxybutylene (E23B8) copolymer film at the air-water interface. The XR data were fitted using both a one- and a two-layer model that outputted the film thickness, roughness, and electron density. The best fit to the experimental data was obtained using a two-layer model (representing the oxyethylene and oxybutylene blocks, respectively), which showed a rapid thickening of the copolymer film at pressures above 7 mN/m. The large roughness values found indicate a significant degree of intermixing between the blocks and back up the GIXD data, which showed no long range lateral ordering within the layer. It was found from the electron density model results that there is a large film densification at 7 mN/m, possibly suggesting conformational changes within the film, even though no such change occurs on the pressure-area isotherm at the same surface pressure.

Oxidation of oleic acid at the air-water interface and its potential effects on cloud critical supersaturations

The oxidation of organic films on cloud condensation nuclei has the potential to affect climate and precipitation events. In this work we present a study of the oxidation of a monolayer of deuterated oleic acid (cis-9-octadecenoic acid) at the air-water interface by ozone to determine if oxidation removes the organic film or replaces it with a product film. A range of different aqueous sub-phases were studied. The surface excess of deuterated material was followed by neutron reflection whilst the surface pressure was followed using a Wilhelmy plate. The neutron reflection data reveal that approximately half the organic material remains at the air-water interface following the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone, thus cleavage of the double bond by ozone creates one surface active species and one species that partitions to the bulk (or gas) phase. The most probable products, produced with a yield of similar to(87 +/- 14)%, are nonanoic acid, which remains at the interface, and azelaic acid (nonanedioic acid), which dissolves into the bulk solution. We also report a surface bimolecular rate constant for the reaction between ozone and oleic acid of (7.3 +/- 0.9) x 10(-11) cm(2) molecule s(-1). The rate constant and product yield are not affected by the solution sub-phase. An uptake coefficient of ozone on the oleic acid monolayer of similar to 4 x 10(-6) is estimated from our results. A simple Kohler analysis demonstrates that the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone on an atmospheric aerosol will lower the critical supersaturation needed for cloud droplet formation. We calculate an atmospheric chemical lifetime of oleic acid of 1.3 hours, significantly longer than laboratory studies on pure oleic acid particles suggest, but more consistent with field studies reporting oleic acid present in aged atmospheric aerosol.

The adsorbed conformation of globular proteins at the air/water interface

External reflection FTIR spectroscopy and surface pressure measurements were used to compare conformational changes in the adsorbed structures of three globular proteins at the air/water interface. Of the three proteins studied, lysozyme, bovine serum albumin and P-lactoglobulin, lysozyme was unique in its behaviour. Lysozyme adsorption was slow, taking approximately 2.5 h to reach a surface pressure plateau (from a 0.07 mM solution), and led to significant structural change. The FTIR spectra revealed that lysozyme formed a highly networked adsorbed layer of unfolded protein with high antiparallel beta-sheet content and that these changes occurred rapidly (within 10 min). This non-native secondary structure is analogous to that of a 3D heat-set protein gel, suggesting that the adsorbed protein formed a highly networked interfacial layer. Albumin and P-lactoglobulin adsorbed rapidly (reaching a plateau within 10 min) and with little chance to their native secondary structure.

Protein-lipid interactions at the air/water interface

Surface pressure measurements and external reflection FTIR spectroscopy have been used to probe protein-lipid interactions at the air/water interface. Spread monomolecular layers of stearic acid and phosphocholine were prepared and held at different compressed phase states prior to the introduction of protein to the buffered subphase. Contrasting interfacial behaviour of the proteins, albumin and lysozyme, was observed and revealed the role of both electrostatic and hydrophobic interactions in protein adsorption. The rate of adsorption of lysozyme to the air/water interface increased dramatically in the presence of stearic acid, due to strong electrostatic interactions between the negatively charged stearic acid head group and lysozyme, whose net charge at pH 7 is positive. Introduction of albumin to the subphase resulted in solubilisation of the stearic acid via the formation of an albumin-stearic acid complex and subsequent adsorption of albumin. This observation held for both human and bovine serum albumin. Protein adsorption to a PC layer held at low surface pressure revealed adsorption rates similar to adsorption to the bare air/water interface and suggested very little interaction between the protein and the lipid. For PC layers in their compressed phase state some adsorption of protein occurred after long adsorption times. Structural changes of both lysozyme and albumin were observed during adsorption, but these were dramatically reduced in the presence of a lipid layer compared to that of adsorption to the pure air/water interface.

Antimicrobial peptide-lipid binding interactions and binding selectivity

Surface pressure measurements, external reflection- Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and neutron re. flectivity have been used to investigate the lipid-binding behavior of three antimicrobial peptides: melittin, magainin II, and cecropin P1. As expected, all three cationic peptides were shown to interact more strongly with the anionic lipid, 1,2 dihexadecanoyl-sn-glycerol3-( phosphor-rac-( 1- glycerol)) ( DPPG), compared to the zwitterionic lipid, 1,2 dihexadecanoyl-sn-glycerol-3-phosphocholine ( DPPC). All three peptides have been shown to penetrate DPPC lipid layers by surface pressure, and this was confirmed for the melittin-DPPC interaction by neutron reflectivity measurements. Adsorption of peptide was, however, minimal, with a maximum of 0.4 mg m(-2) seen for melittin adsorption compared to 2.1 mg m(-2) for adsorption to DPPG ( from 0.7 mu M solution). The mode of binding to DPPG was shown to depend on the distribution of basic residues within the peptide alpha-helix, although in all cases adsorption below the lipid layer was shown to dominate over insertion within the layer. Melittin adsorption to DPPG altered the lipid layer structure observed through changes in the external reflection-Fourier transform infrared lipid spectra and neutron reflectivity. This lipid disruption was not observed for magainin or cecropin. In addition, melittin binding to both lipids was shown to be 50% greater than for either magainin or cecropin. Adsorption to the bare air-water interface was also investigated and surface activity followed the trend melittin. magainin. cecropin. External re. ection- Fourier transform infrared amide spectra revealed that melittin adopted a helical structure only in the presence of lipid, whereas magainin and cecropin adopted helical structure also at an airwater interface. This behavior has been related to the different charge distributions on the peptide amino acid sequences.

The effects of the RAW filter on the climatology and forecast skill of the SPEEDY model

In a recent study, Williams introduced a simple modification to the widely used Robert–Asselin (RA) filter for numerical integration. The main purpose of the Robert–Asselin–Williams (RAW) filter is to avoid the undesired numerical damping of the RA filter and to increase the accuracy. In the present paper, the effects of the modification are comprehensively evaluated in the Simplified Parameterizations, Primitive Equation Dynamics (SPEEDY) atmospheric general circulation model. First, the authors search for significant changes in the monthly climatology due to the introduction of the new filter. After testing both at the local level and at the field level, no significant changes are found, which is advantageous in the sense that the new scheme does not require a retuning of the parameterized model physics. Second, the authors examine whether the new filter improves the skill of short- and medium-term forecasts. January 1982 data from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis are used to evaluate the forecast skill. Improvements are found in all the model variables (except the relative humidity, which is hardly changed). The improvements increase with lead time and are especially evident in medium-range forecasts (96–144 h). For example, in tropical surface pressure predictions, 5-day forecasts made using the RAW filter have approximately the same skill as 4-day forecasts made using the RA filter. The results of this work are encouraging for the implementation of the RAW filter in other models currently using the RA filter.

Exploring the land–ocean contrast in convective vigor using islands

Moist convection is well known to be generally more intense over continental than maritime regions, with larger updraft velocities, graupel, and lightning production. This study explores the transition from maritime to continental convection by comparing the trends in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) radar and microwave (37 and 85 GHz) observations over islands of increasing size to those simulated by a cloud-resolving model. The observed storms were essentially maritime over islands of <100 km2 and continental over islands >10 000 km2, with a gradual transition in between. Equivalent radar and microwave quantities were simulated from cloud-resolving runs of the Weather Research and Forecasting model via offline radiation codes. The model configuration was idealized, with islands represented by regions of uniform surface heat flux without orography, using a range of initial sounding conditions without strong horizontal winds or aerosols. Simulated storm strength varied with initial sounding, as expected, but also increased sharply with island size in a manner similar to observations. Stronger simulated storms were associated with higher concentrations of large hydrometeors. Although biases varied with different ice microphysical schemes, the trend was similar for all three schemes tested and was also seen in 2D and 3D model configurations. The successful reproduction of the trend with such idealized forcing supports previous suggestions that mesoscale variation in surface heating—rather than any difference in humidity, aerosol, or other aspects of the atmospheric state—is the main reason that convection is more intense over continents and large islands than over oceans. Some dynamical storm aspects, notably the peak rainfall and minimum surface pressure low, were more sensitive to surface forcing than to the atmospheric sounding or ice scheme. Large hydrometeor concentrations and simulated microwave and radar signatures, however, were at least as sensitive to initial humidity levels as to surface forcing and were more sensitive to the ice scheme. Issues with running the TRMM simulator on 2D simulations are discussed, but they appear to be less serious than sensitivities to model microphysics, which were similar in 2D and 3D. This supports the further use of 2D simulations to economically explore modeling uncertainties.