Iowa Power Fund Board Project Report Update, July 29, 2009

Climate refers to the long-term course or condition of weather, usually over a time scale of decades and longer. It has been documented that our global climate is changing (IPCC 2007, Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009), and Iowa is no exception. In Iowa, statistically significant changes in our precipitation, streamflow, nighttime minimum temperatures, winter average temperatures, and dewpoint humidity readings have occurred during the past few decades. Iowans are already living with warmer winters, longer growing seasons, warmer nights, higher dew-point temperatures, increased humidity, greater annual streamflows, and more frequent severe precipitation events (Fig. 1-1) than were prevalent during the past 50 years. Some of the impacts of these changes could be construed as positive, and some are negative, particularly the tendency for greater precipitation events and flooding. In the near-term, we may expect these trends to continue as long as climate change is prolonged and exacerbated by increasing greenhouse gas emissions globally from the use of fossil fuels and fertilizers, the clearing of land, and agricultural and industrial emissions. This report documents the impacts of changing climate on Iowa during the past 50 years. It seeks to answer the question, “What are the impacts of climate change in Iowa that have been observed already?” And, “What are the effects on public health, our flora and fauna, agriculture, and the general economy of Iowa?”

Using spatially distributed parameters and multi-response objective functions to solve parameterization of complex applications of semi-distributed hydrological models

Application of semi-distributed hydrological models to large, heterogeneous watersheds deals with several problems. On one hand, the spatial and temporal variability in catchment features should be adequately represented in the model parameterization, while maintaining the model complexity in an acceptable level to take advantage of state-of-the-art calibration techniques. On the other hand, model complexity enhances uncertainty in adjusted model parameter values, therefore increasing uncertainty in the water routing across the watershed. This is critical for water quality applications, where not only streamflow, but also a reliable estimation of the surface versus subsurface contributions to the runoff is needed. In this study, we show how a regularized inversion procedure combined with a multiobjective function calibration strategy successfully solves the parameterization of a complex application of a water quality-oriented hydrological model. The final value of several optimized parameters showed significant and consistentdifferences across geological and landscape features. Although the number of optimized parameters was significantly increased by the spatial and temporal discretization of adjustable parameters, the uncertainty in water routing results remained at reasonable values. In addition, a stepwise numerical analysis showed that the effects on calibration performance due to inclusion of different data types in the objective function could be inextricably linked. Thus caution should be taken when adding or removing data from an aggregated objective function.

A comparison of rapid bioassessment protocols used in 2 regions with Mediterranean climates, the Iberian Peninsula and South Africa

Abstract. The ability of 2 Rapid Bioassessment Protocols (RBPs) to assess stream water quality was compared in 2 Mediterranean-climate regions. The most commonly used RBPs in South Africa (SAprotocol) and the Iberian Peninsula (IB-protocol) are both multihabitat, field-based methods that use macroinvertebrates. Both methods use preassigned sensitivity weightings to calculate metrics and biotic indices. The SA- and IB-protocols differ with respect to sampling equipment (mesh size: 1000 lm vs 250 300 lm, respectively), segregation of habitats (substrate vs flow-type), and sampling and sorting procedures (variable time and intensity). Sampling was undertaken at 6 sites in South Africa and 5 sites in the Iberian Peninsula. Forty-four and 51 macroinvertebrate families were recorded in South Africa and the Iberian Peninsula, respectively; 77.3% of South African families and 74.5% of Iberian Peninsula families were found using both protocols. Estimates of community similarity compared between the 2 protocols were .60% similar among sites in South Africa and .54% similar among sites in the Iberian Peninsula (BrayCurtis similarity), and no significant differences were found between protocols (Multiresponse Permutation Procedure). Ordination based on Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling grouped macroinvertebrate samples on the basis of site rather than protocol. Biotic indices generated with the 2 protocols at each site did not differ. Thus, both RBPs produced equivalent results, and both were able to distinguish between biotic communities (mountain streams vs foothills) and detect water-quality impairment, regardless of differences in sampling equipment, segregation of habitats, and sampling and sorting procedures. Our results indicate that sampling a single habitat may be sufficient for assessing water quality, but a multihabitat approach to sampling is recommended where intrinsic variability of macroinvertebrate assemblages is high (e.g., in undisturbed sites in regions with Mediterranean climates). The RBP of choice should depend on whether the objective is routine biomonitoring of water quality or autecological or faunistic studies.

Estimating Design-Flood Discharges for Streams in Iowa Using Drainage-Basin and Channel-Geometry Characteristics, HR-322, 1993

Drainage-basin and channel-geometry multiple-regression equations are presented for estimating design-flood discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years at stream sites on rural, unregulated streams in Iowa. Design-flood discharge estimates determined by Pearson Type-III analyses using data collected through the 1990 water year are reported for the 188 streamflow-gaging stations used in either the drainage-basin or channel-geometry regression analyses. Ordinary least-squares multiple-regression techniques were used to identify selected drainage-basin and channel-geometry regions. Weighted least-squares multiple-regression techniques, which account for differences in the variance of flows at different gaging stations and for variable lengths in station records, were used to estimate the regression parameters. Statewide drainage-basin equations were developed from analyses of 164 streamflow-gaging stations. Drainage-basin characteristics were quantified using a geographic-information-system (GIS) procedure to process topographic maps and digital cartographic data. The significant characteristics identified for the drainage-basin equations included contributing drainage area, relative relief, drainage frequency, and 2-year, 24-hour precipitation intensity. The average standard errors of prediction for the drainage-basin equations ranged from 38.6% to 50.2%. The GIS procedure expanded the capability to quantitatively relate drainage-basin characteristics to the magnitude and frequency of floods for stream sites in Iowa and provides a flood-estimation method that is independent of hydrologic regionalization. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations were developed from analyses of 157 streamflow-gaging stations. Channel-geometry characteristics were measured on site and on topographic maps. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations that are dependent on whether a stream has been channelized were developed on the basis of bankfull and active-channel characteristics. The significant channel-geometry characteristics identified for the statewide and regional regression equations included bankfull width and bankfull depth for natural channels unaffected by channelization, and active-channel width for stabilized channels affected by channelization. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from 41.0% to 68.4% for the statewide channel-geometry equations and from 30.3% to 70.0% for the regional channel-geometry equations. Procedures provided for applying the drainage-basin and channel-geometry regression equations depend on whether the design-flood discharge estimate is for a site on an ungaged stream, an ungaged site on a gaged stream, or a gaged site. When both a drainage-basin and a channel-geometry regression-equation estimate are available for a stream site, a procedure is presented for determining a weighted average of the two flood estimates.

Survey of Users of the USGS Stream-Gaging Network in Iowa, 1996, HR-383, 1996

A survey was sent to over 200 Federal, State, and local agencies that might use streamflow data collected by the U. S. Geological Survey in Iowa. A total of 181 forms were returned and 112 agencies indicated that they use streamflow data. The responses show that streamflow data from the Iowa USGS stream-gaging network, which in 1996 is composed of 117 stations, are used by many agencies for many purposes and that many stations provide streamflow data that fulfill a variety of joint purposes. The median number of respondents per station that use data from the station was 6 and the median number of data-use categories indicated per station was 9. The survey results can be used by agencies that fund the Iowa USGS stream-gaging network to help them decide which stations to continue to support if it becomes necessary to reduce the size of the stream-gaging network.

Potential-Scour Assessments and Estimates of Maximum Scour at Selected Bridges in Iowa, HR-344, 1995

This report presents the results of potential-scour assessments at 130 bridges and estimates of maximum scour at 10 bridges, in Iowa. All of the bridges evaluated in the study are constructed bridges (not culverts) that are sites of active or discontinued streamflow-gaging stations and peak-stage measurement sites. The period of the study was from October 1991 to September 1994. The potential-scour assessments were made using a potential-scour index developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for a study in Tennessee. Higher values of the index suggest a greater likelihood of scour-related problems occurring at a bridge. The estimates of maximum scour were made using scour equations recommended by the Federal Highway Administration. In this study, the long term aggradation or degradation that occurred during the period of streamflow data collection at each site was evaluated. Although the abutment-scour equation predicted deep scour holes at many of the sites, the only significant abutment scour that was measured was erosion of the embankment at the left abutment at one bridge after a flood.

Flood of May 19, 1990, Along Perry Creek in Plymouth and Woodbury Counties, Iowa, HR-140, 1996

A water-surface-elevation profile and peak discharges for the flood of May 19, 1990, along Perry Creek in Plymouth and Woodbury Counties, Iowa, are presented in this report. The peak discharge for the May 19, 1990, flood on Perry Creek at 38th Street, Sioux City (06600000) is the second largest flood-peak discharge recorded at the streamflow-gaging station for the period 1939-95. The peak discharge for May 19, 1990, of 8,670 cubic feet per second, is approximately equal to the 35-year recurrence-interval discharge. The report provides information on flood stages and discharges and floodflow frequencies for streamflow- gaging stations in the Perry Creek Basin using flood information collected during 1939-95. Information on temporary bench marks and reference points established in the Perry Creek Basin during 1990-93 is also included in the report. A flood history describes rainfall conditions for the three largest floods that occurred during 1939-95 (July 1944, September 1949, and May 1990).

Floods of July 19-25, 1999, in the Wapsipinicon and Cedar River Basins, Northeast Iowa, HR-140

Severe flooding occurred during July 19-25, 1999, in the Wapsipinicon and Cedar River Basins following two thunderstorms over northeast Iowa. During July 18-19, as much as 6 inches ofrainfall was centered over Cerro Gordo, Floyd, Mitchell, and Worth Counties. During July 20-21, a second storm occurred in which an additional rainfall of as much as 8 inches was centered over Chickasaw and Floyd Counties. The cumulative effect of the storms produced floods with new maximum peak discharges at the following streamflow-gaging stations: Wapsipinicon River near Tripoli, 19,400 cubic feet per second; Cedar River at Charles City, 31,200 cubic feet per second (recurrence interval about 90 years); Cedar River at Janesville, 42,200 cubic feet per second (recurrence interval about 80 years); and Flood Creek near Powersville, 19,000 cubic feet per second. Profiles of flood elevations for the July 1999 flood are presented in this report for selected reaches along the Wapsipinicon, Cedar, and Shell Rock Rivers and along Flood Creek. Information about the river basins, rain storms, and flooding are presented along with information on temporary bench marks and reference points in the Wapsipinicon and Cedar River Basins.

Estimacions hidrològiques i de moviment de sediment a la riuada del 7 d'Agost de 1996 a la conca del Barranco de Arás (Pirineu aragonès)

L'avinguda al Barranco de Arás a la vall de Biescas és un esdeveniment hidrològic de caràcter extrem de tipus catastròfic, amb un període de recurrència superior als 1000 anys. Es va produir com a conseqüència d'una tempesta plujosa associada al pas d'un front fred pel Pirineu central el 7 d'agost de 1996. La tempesta va descarregar 200 mm h-1 al fons de la vall de Biescas i 500 mm h-1 a Betés, el nucli de la tempesta, quantitats que corresponen a períodes de recurrència aproximats de 100 i 500 anys respectivament.

Floods of September 15-16, 1992, in the Thompson, Weldon, and Chariton River Basins, South-Central Iowa, HR-140, 1997

Water-surface-elevation profiles and peak discharges for the floods of September 15-16, 1992, in the Thompson, Weldon, and Chariton River Basins, south-central Iowa, are presented in this report. The profiles illustrate the 1992 floods along the Thompson, Weldon, Chariton, and South Fork Chariton Rivers and along Elk Creek in the south-central Iowa counties of Adair, Clarke, Decatur, Lucas, Madison, Ringgold, Union, and Wayne. Water-surface-elevation profiles for the floods of July 4, 1981, along the Chariton River in Lucas County and along the South Fork Chariton River in Wayne County also are included in the report for comparative purposes. The September 15-16, 1992, floods are the largest known peak discharges at gaging stations Thompson River at Davis City (station number 06898000) 57,000 cubic feet per second, Weldon River near Leon (station number 06898400) 76,200 cubic feet per second, Chariton River near Chariton (station number 06903400) 37,700 cubic feet per second, and South Fork Chariton River near Promise City (station number 06903700) 70,600 cubic feet per second. The peak discharges were, respectively, 1.7, 2.6, 1.4, and 2.1 times larger than calculated 100-year recurrence-interval discharges. The report provides information on flood stages and discharges and floodflow frequencies for streamflow-gaging stations in the Thompson, Weldon, and Chariton River Basins using flood information collected through 1995. Information on temporary bench marks and reference points established in the Thompson and Weldon River Basins during 1994-95, and in the Chariton River Basin during 1983-84 and 1994-95, also is included in the report. A flood history summarizes rainfall conditions and damages for floods that occurred during 1947, 1959, 1981, 1992, and 1993.

Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot, HEPN-707, 2015

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for approximately 4,100 bridges and structures that are a part of the state’s primary highway system, which includes the Interstate, US, and Iowa highway routes. A pilot study was conducted for six bridges in two Iowa river basins—the Cedar River Basin and the South Skunk River Basin—to develop a methodology to evaluate their vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather. The six bridges had been either closed or severely stressed by record streamflow within the past seven years. An innovative methodology was developed to generate streamflow scenarios given climate change projections. The methodology selected appropriate rainfall projection data to feed into a streamflow model that generated continuous peak annual streamflow series for 1960 through 2100, which were used as input to PeakFQ to estimate return intervals for floods. The methodology evaluated the plausibility of rainfall projections and credibility of streamflow simulation while remaining consistent with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) protocol for estimating the return interval for floods. The results were conveyed in an innovative graph that combined historical and scenario-based design metrics for use in bridge vulnerability analysis and engineering design. The pilot results determined the annual peak streamflow response to climate change likely will be basin-size dependent, four of the six pilot study bridges would be exposed to increased frequency of extreme streamflow and would have higher frequency of overtopping, the proposed design for replacing the Interstate 35 bridges over the South Skunk River south of Ames, Iowa is resilient to climate change, and some Iowa DOT bridge design policies could be reviewed to consider incorporating climate change information.

Techniques for Estimating Flood-Frequency Discharges for Streams in Iowa, HR-395A, 2001

A statewide study was conducted to develop regression equations for estimating flood-frequency discharges for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. Thirty-eight selected basin characteristics were quantified and flood-frequency analyses were computed for 291 streamflow-gaging stations in Iowa and adjacent States. A generalized-skew-coefficient analysis was conducted to determine whether generalized skew coefficients could be improved for Iowa. Station skew coefficients were computed for 239 gaging stations in Iowa and adjacent States, and an isoline map of generalized-skew-coefficient values was developed for Iowa using variogram modeling and kriging methods. The skew map provided the lowest mean square error for the generalized-skew- coefficient analysis and was used to revise generalized skew coefficients for flood-frequency analyses for gaging stations in Iowa. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression and data from 241 gaging stations, was used to develop equations for three hydrologic regions defined for the State. The regression equations can be used to estimate flood discharges that have recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. One-variable equations were developed for each of the three regions and multi-variable equations were developed for two of the regions. Two sets of equations are presented for two of the regions because one-variable equations are considered easy for users to apply and the predictive accuracies of multi-variable equations are greater. Standard error of prediction for the one-variable equations ranges from about 34 to 45 percent and for the multi-variable equations range from about 31 to 42 percent. A region-of-influence regression method was also investigated for estimating flood-frequency discharges for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. A comparison of regional and region-of-influence regression methods, based on ease of application and root mean square errors, determined the regional regression method to be the better estimation method for Iowa. Techniques for estimating flood-frequency discharges for streams in Iowa are presented for determining ( 1) regional regression estimates for ungaged sites on ungaged streams; (2) weighted estimates for gaged sites; and (3) weighted estimates for ungaged sites on gaged streams. The technique for determining regional regression estimates for ungaged sites on ungaged streams requires determining which of four possible examples applies to the location of the stream site and its basin. Illustrations for determining which example applies to an ungaged stream site and for applying both the one-variable and multi-variable regression equations are provided for the estimation techniques.

Floods of June 17, 1990 and July 9, 1993, Along Squaw Creek and the South Skunk River in Ames, Iowa, and Vicinity, HR-140, 1996

Water-surface-elevation profiles and peak discharges for the floods of June 17, 1990, and July 9, 1993, along Squaw Creek and the South Skunk River, in Ames, Iowa, are presented in this report. The maximum flood-peak discharge of 24,300 cubic feet per second for the streamflow-gaging station on Squaw Creek at Ames, Iowa (station number 05470500) occurred on July 9, 1993. This discharge was 80 percent larger than the 100-year recurrence-interval discharge and exceeded the previous record flood-peak discharge of June 17, 1990, by 94 percent. The July 9, 1993, flood-peak discharge of 26,500 cubic feet per second on the South Skunk River below Squaw Creek (station number 05471000) was also a peak of record, exceeding the previous record flood-peak discharge of June 27,1975, by 80 percent, and the 100-year recurrence-interval discharge by 60 percent. A flood history describes rainfall conditions for floods that occurred during 1990 and 1993.

Floods of July 12, 1972, March 19, 1979, and June 15, 1991, in the Turkey River, Northeast Iowa, HR-140, 1996

Water-surface-elevation profiles and peak discharges for the floods of July 12, 1972, March 19, 1979, and June 15, 1991, in the Turkey River Basin, northeast Iowa, are presented in this report. The profiles illustrate the 1979 and 1991 floods along the Turkey River in Fayette and Clayton Counties and along the Volga River in Clayton County; the 1991 flood along Roberts Creek in Clayton County and along Otter Creek in Fayette County; and the 1972 flood along the Turkey River in Winneshiek and Fayette Counties. Watersurface elevations for the flood of March 19, 1979, were collected by the Iowa Natural Resources Council. The June 15, 1991, flood on the Turkey River at Garber (station number 05412500) is the largest known flood-peak discharge at the streamflow-gaging station for the period 1902-95. The peak discharge for June 15, 1991, of 49,900 cubic feet per second was 1.4 times larger than the 100-year recurrence-interval discharge. The report provides information on flood stages and discharges and floodflow frequencies for streamflow-gaging stations in the Turkey River Basin using flood information collected during 1902-95. Information on temporary bench marks and reference points established in the Turkey River Basin during 1981, 1992, and 1996 also is included in the report. A flood history describes rainfall conditions for floods that occurred during 1922, 1947, 1972, 1979, and 1991.