Towards the Use of Radar Winds in Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

On gravitational fields of stars in f(R) gravity theories

Einstein's general relativity is a classical theory of gravitation: it is a postulate on the coupling between the four-dimensional, continuos spacetime and the matter fields in the universe, and it yields their dynamical evolution. It is believed that general relativity must be replaced by a quantum theory of gravity at least at extremely high energies of the early universe and at regions of strong curvature of spacetime, cf. black holes. Various attempts to quantize gravity, including conceptually new models such as string theory, have suggested that modification to general relativity might show up even at lower energy scales. On the other hand, also the late time acceleration of the expansion of the universe, known as the dark energy problem, might originate from new gravitational physics. Thus, although there has been no direct experimental evidence contradicting general relativity so far - on the contrary, it has passed a variety of observational tests - it is a question worth asking, why should the effective theory of gravity be of the exact form of general relativity? If general relativity is modified, how do the predictions of the theory change? Furthermore, how far can we go with the changes before we are face with contradictions with the experiments? Along with the changes, could there be new phenomena, which we could measure to find hints of the form of the quantum theory of gravity? This thesis is on a class of modified gravity theories called f(R) models, and in particular on the effects of changing the theory of gravity on stellar solutions. It is discussed how experimental constraints from the measurements in the Solar System restrict the form of f(R) theories. Moreover, it is shown that models, which do not differ from general relativity at the weak field scale of the Solar System, can produce very different predictions for dense stars like neutron stars. Due to the nature of f(R) models, the role of independent connection of the spacetime is emphasized throughout the thesis.

Accretion of Chaplygin gas upon black holes: formation of faster outflowing winds

We study the accretion of modified Chaplygin gas upon different types of black holes. Modified Chaplygin gas is one of the best candidates for a combined model of dark matter and dark energy. In addition, from a field theoretical point of view the modified Chaplygin gas model is equivalent to that of a scalar field having a self-interacting potential. We formulate the equations related to both spherical accretion and disc accretion, and respective winds. The corresponding numerical solutions of the flow, particularly of velocity, are presented and analysed. We show that the accretion-wind system of modified Chaplygin gas dramatically alters the wind solutions, producing faster winds, upon changes in physical parameters, while accretion solutions qualitatively remain unaffected. This implies that modified Chaplygin gas is more prone to produce outflow which is the natural consequence of the dark energy into the system.

Swing amplification of nonaxisymmetric perturbations in stars and gas in a sheared galactic disk

We present a study of the growth of local, nonaxisymmetric perturbations in gravitationally coupled stars and gas in a differentially rotating galactic disk. The stars and gas are treated as two isothermal fluids of different velocity dispersions, with the stellar velocity dispersion being greater than that for the gas. We examine the physical effects of inclusion of a low-velocity dispersion component (gas) on the growth of non-axisymmetric perturbations in both stars and gas, as done for the axisymmetric case by Jog & Solomon. The amplified perturbations in stars and gas constitute trailing, material, spiral features which may be identified with the local spiral features seen in all spiral galaxies. The formulation of the two-fluid equations closely follows the one-fluid treatment by Goldreich & Lynden-Bell. The local, linearized perturbation equations in the sheared frame are solved to obtain the results for a temporary growth via swing amplification. The problem is formulated in terms of five dimensionless parameters-namely, the Q-factors for stars and gas, respectively; the gas mass fraction; the shearing rate in the galactic disk; and the length scale of perturbation. By using the observed values of these parameters, we obtain the amplifications and the pitch angles for features in stars and gas for dynamically distinct cases, as applicable for different regions of spiral galaxies. A real galaxy consisting of stars and gas may display growth of nonaxisymmetric perturbations even when it is stable against axisymmetric perturbations and/or when either fluid by itself is stable against non-axisymmetric perturbations. Due to its lower velocity dispersion, the gas exhibits a higher amplification than do the stars, and the amplified gas features are slightly more tightly wound than the stellar features. When the gas contribution is high, the stellar amplification and the range of pitch angles over which it can occur are both increased, due to the gravitational coupling between the two fluids. Thus, the two-fluid scheme can explain the origin of the broad spiral arms in the underlying old stellar populations of galaxies, as observed by Schweizer and Elmegreen & Elmegreen. The arms are predicted to be broader in gas-rich galaxies, as is indeed seen for example in M33. In the linear regime studied here, the arm contrast is shown to increase with radius in the inner Galaxy, in agreement with observations of external galaxies by Schweizer. These results follow directly due to the inclusion of gas in the problem.

Simulation of ENSO-Related Surface Winds in the Tropical Pacific by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Forced by Observed Sea Surface Temperatures

The authors present the simulation of the tropical Pacific surface wind variability by a low-resolution (R15 horizontal resolution and 18 vertical levels) version of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Maryland, general circulation model (GCM) when forced by observed global sea surface temperature. The authors have examined the monthly mean surface winds acid precipitation simulated by the model that was integrated from January 1979 to March 1992. Analyses of the climatological annual cycle and interannual variability over the Pacific are presented. The annual means of the simulated zonal and meridional winds agree well with observations. The only appreciable difference is in the region of strong trade winds where the simulated zonal winds are about 15%-20% weaker than observed, The amplitude of the annual harmonics are weaker than observed over the intertropical convergence zone and the South Pacific convergence zone regions. The amplitudes of the interannual variation of the simulated zonal and meridional winds are close to those of the observed variation. The first few dominant empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of the simulated, as well as the observed, monthly mean winds are found to contain a targe amount of high-frequency intraseasonal variations, While the statistical properties of the high-frequency modes, such as their amplitude and geographical locations, agree with observations, their detailed time evolution does not. When the data are subjected to a 5-month running-mean filter, the first two dominant EOFs of the simulated winds representing the low-frequency EI Nino-Southern Oscillation fluctuations compare quite well with observations. However, the location of the center of the westerly anomalies associated with the warm episodes is simulated about 15 degrees west of the observed locations. The model simulates well the progress of the westerly anomalies toward the eastern Pacific during the evolution of a warm event. The simulated equatorial wind anomalies are comparable in magnitude to the observed anomalies. An intercomparison of the simulation of the interannual variability by a few other GCMs with comparable resolution is also presented. The success in simulation of the large-scale low-frequency part of the tropical surface winds by the atmospheric GCM seems to be related to the model's ability to simulate the large-scale low-frequency part of the precipitation. Good correspondence between the simulated precipitation and the highly reflective cloud anomalies is seen in the first two EOFs of the 5-month running means. Moreover, the strong correlation found between the simulated precipitation and the simulated winds in the first two principal components indicates the primary role of model precipitation in driving the surface winds. The surface winds simulated by a linear model forced by the GCM-simulated precipitation show good resemblance to the GCM-simulated winds in the equatorial region. This result supports the recent findings that the large-scale part of the tropical surface winds is primarily linear.

Temperature profiles of accretion discs around rapidly rotating strange stars in general relativity: A comparison with neutron stars

We compute the temperature profiles of accretion discs around rapidly rotating strange stars, using constant gravitational mass equilibrium sequences of these objects, considering the full effect of general relativity. Beyond a certain critical value of stellar angular momentum (J), we observe the radius ( $r_{\rm orb}$) of the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO) to increase with J (a property seen neither in rotating black holes nor in rotating neutron stars). The reason for this is traced to the crucial dependence of ${\rm d}r_{\rm orb}/{\rm d}J$ on the rate of change of the radial gradient of the Keplerian angular velocity at $r_{\rm orb}$ with respect to J. The structure parameters and temperature profiles obtained are compared with those of neutron stars, as an attempt to provide signatures for distinguishing between the two. We show that when the full gamut of strange star equation of state models, with varying degrees of stiffness are considered, there exists a substantial overlap in properties of both neutron stars and strange stars. However, applying accretion disc model constraints to rule out stiff strange star equation of state models, we notice that neutron stars and strange stars exclusively occupy certain parameter spaces. This result implies the possibility of distinguishing these objects from each other by sensitive observations through future X-ray detectors.

Superbubble breakout and galactic winds from disc galaxies

We study the conditions for disc galaxies to produce superbubbles that can break out of the disc and produce a galactic wind. We argue that the threshold surface density of supernovae rate for seeding a wind depends on the ability of superbubble energetics to compensate for radiative cooling. We first adapt Kompaneets formalism for expanding bubbles in a stratified medium to the case of continuous energy injection and include the effects of radiative cooling in the shell. With the help of hydrodynamic simulations, we then study the evolution of superbubbles evolving in stratified discs with typical disc parameters. We identify two crucial energy injection rates that differ in their effects, the corresponding breakout ranging from being gentle to a vigorous one. (a) Superbubbles that break out of the disc with a Mach number of the order of 2-3 correspond to an energy injection rate of the order of 10(-4) erg cm(-2) s(-1), which is relevant for disc galaxies with synchrotron emitting gas in the extra-planar regions. (b) A larger energy injection threshold, of the order of 10(-3) erg cm(-2) s(-1), or equivalently, a star formation surface density of similar to 0.1 M-circle dot yr(-1) kpc(-2), corresponds to superbubbles with a Mach number similar to 5-10. While the milder superbubbles can be produced by large OB associations, the latter kind requires super-starclusters. These derived conditions compare well with observations of disc galaxies with winds and the existence of multiphase halo gas. Furthermore, we find that contrary to the general belief that superbubbles fragment through Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability when they reach a vertical height of the order of the scaleheight, the superbubbles are first affected by thermal instability for typical disc parameters and that RT instability takes over when the shells reach a distance of approximately twice the scaleheight.

Nucleosynthesis in the outflows associated with accretion disks of type II collapsars

We investigate nucleosynthesis inside the outflows from gamma-ray burst (GRB) accretion disks formed by the Type II collapsars. In these collapsars, massive stars undergo core collapse to form a proto-neutron star initially, and a mild supernova (SN) explosion is driven. The SN ejecta lack momentum, and subsequently this newly formed neutron star gets transformed to a stellar mass black hole via massive fallback. The hydrodynamics and the nucleosynthesis in these accretion disks have been studied extensively in the past. Several heavy elements are synthesized in the disk, and much of these heavy elements are ejected from the disk via winds and outflows. We study nucleosynthesis in the outflows launched from these disks by using an adiabatic, spherically expanding outflow model, to understand which of these elements thus synthesized in the disk survive in the outflow. While studying this, we find that many new elements like isotopes of titanium, copper, zinc, etc., are present in the outflows. Ni-56 is abundantly synthesized in most of the cases in the outflow, which implies that the outflows from these disks in a majority of cases will lead to an observable SN explosion. It is mainly present when outflow is considered from the He-rich, Ni-56/Fe-54-rich zones of the disks. However, outflow from the Si-rich zone of the disk remains rich in silicon. Although emission lines of many of these heavy elements have been observed in the X-ray afterglows of several GRBs by Chandra, BeppoSAX, XMM-Newton, etc., Swift seems to have not yet detected these lines.

A DYNAMO MODEL OF MAGNETIC ACTIVITY IN SOLAR-LIKE STARS WITH DIFFERENT ROTATIONAL VELOCITIES

We attempt to provide a quantitative theoretical explanation for the observations that Ca II H/K emission and X-ray emission from solar-like stars increase with decreasing Rossby number (i.e., with faster rotation). Assuming that these emissions are caused by magnetic cycles similar to the sunspot cycle, we construct flux transport dynamo models of 1M(circle dot) stars rotating with different rotation periods. We first compute the differential rotation and the meridional circulation inside these stars from a mean-field hydrodynamics model. Then these are substituted in our dynamo code to produce periodic solutions. We find that the dimensionless amplitude f(m) of the toroidal flux through the star increases with decreasing rotation period. The observational data can be matched if we assume the emissions to go as the power 3-4 of f(m). Assuming that the Babcock-Leighton mechanism saturates with increasing rotation, we can provide an explanation for the observed saturation of emission at low Rossby numbers. The main failure of our model is that it predicts an increase of the magnetic cycle period with increasing rotation rate, which is the opposite of what is found observationally. Much of our calculations are based on the assumption that the magnetic buoyancy makes the magnetic flux tubes rise radially from the bottom of the convection zone. Taking into account the fact that the Coriolis force diverts the magnetic flux tubes to rise parallel to the rotation axis in rapidly rotating stars, the results do not change qualitatively.

The influence of momentum addition on the acceleration of the solar and stellar winds

The influence of the momentum addition, which may be associated with the average or fluctuation transverse component of the magnetic field or others, on the acceleration the solar wind or stellar wind is studied in a local streamtube. The results show that the larger the momentum addition the stronger the acceleration of the wind. For example, if the typical transverse magnetic field is about 0.1 of the longitudinal field, the velocity of the solar wind at 1 AU may be increased by 40%. The coronal hole may be considered as a streamtube, the presence of a high stream from the coronal hole may be explained by the existence of an average or fluctuation transverse magnetic field in the streamtube. A similar conclusion may be applied to the polar region, where the velocity of the solar wind will be larger than elsewhere as if there is a transverse component of magnetic field, as well as to the stellar wind. The influence of other parameters on the acceleration of the solar wind is also discussed. From the viewpoint of the solar wind mechanism, the present paper shows that the momentum addition in the subsonic flow region can increase the velocity of the solar wind at 1 AU.

Integrating climate change impacts to improve understanding of coastal climate change: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas in coastal Hawaii, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

Coastal storms, and the strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas that accompany them pose a serious threat to the lives and livelihoods of the peoples of the Pacific basin, from the tropics to the high latitudes. To reduce their vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena (and correspondingly enhance their resiliency), decision-makers in coastal communities require timely access to accurate information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. This includes information about the potential for coastal flooding, inundation and erosion at time scales ranging from hours to years, as well as the longterm climatological context of this information. The Pacific Storms Climatology Project (PSCP) was formed in 2006 with the intent of improving scientific understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity - “storminess”- and related impacts of these extreme events. The project is currently developing a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors, including: water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism. The PSCP is exploring how the climate-related processes that govern extreme storm events are expressed within and between three primary thematic areas: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas. To address these thematic areas, PSCP has focused on developing analyses of historical climate records collected throughout the Pacific region, and the integration of these climatological analyses with near-real time observations to put recent weather and climate events into a longer-term perspective.(PDF contains 4 pages)

Black holes in the early universe, in compact binaries, and as energy sources inside solar-type stars

This thesis consists of three separate studies of roles that black holes might play in our universe.

In the first part we formulate a statistical method for inferring the cosmological parameters of our universe from LIGO/VIRGO measurements of the gravitational waves produced by coalescing black-hole/neutron-star binaries. This method is based on the cosmological distance-redshift relation, with "luminosity distances" determined directly, and redshifts indirectly, from the gravitational waveforms. Using the current estimates of binary coalescence rates and projected "advanced" LIGO noise spectra, we conclude that by our method the Hubble constant should be measurable to within an error of a few percent. The errors for the mean density of the universe and the cosmological constant will depend strongly on the size of the universe, varying from about 10% for a "small" universe up to and beyond 100% for a "large" universe. We further study the effects of random gravitational lensing and find that it may strongly impair the determination of the cosmological constant.

In the second part of this thesis we disprove a conjecture that black holes cannot form in an early, inflationary era of our universe, because of a quantum-field-theory induced instability of the black-hole horizon. This instability was supposed to arise from the difference in temperatures of any black-hole horizon and the inflationary cosmological horizon; it was thought that this temperature difference would make every quantum state that is regular at the cosmological horizon be singular at the black-hole horizon. We disprove this conjecture by explicitly constructing a quantum vacuum state that is everywhere regular for a massless scalar field. We further show that this quantum state has all the nice thermal properties that one has come to expect of "good" vacuum states, both at the black-hole horizon and at the cosmological horizon.

In the third part of the thesis we study the evolution and implications of a hypothetical primordial black hole that might have found its way into the center of the Sun or any other solar-type star. As a foundation for our analysis, we generalize the mixing-length theory of convection to an optically thick, spherically symmetric accretion flow (and find in passing that the radial stretching of the inflowing fluid elements leads to a modification of the standard Schwarzschild criterion for convection). When the accretion is that of solar matter onto the primordial hole, the rotation of the Sun causes centrifugal hangup of the inflow near the hole, resulting in an "accretion torus" which produces an enhanced outflow of heat. We find, however, that the turbulent viscosity, which accompanies the convective transport of this heat, extracts angular momentum from the inflowing gas, thereby buffering the torus into a lower luminosity than one might have expected. As a result, the solar surface will not be influenced noticeably by the torus's luminosity until at most three days before the Sun is finally devoured by the black hole. As a simple consequence, accretion onto a black hole inside the Sun cannot be an answer to the solar neutrino puzzle.

Dynamical stability of nascent neutron stars

This thesis presents a study of the dynamical stability of nascent neutron stars resulting from the accretion induced collapse of rapidly rotating white dwarfs.

Chapter 2 and part of Chapter 3 study the equilibrium models for these neutron stars. They are constructed by assuming that the neutron stars have the same masses, angular momenta, and specific angular momentum distributions as the pre-collapse white dwarfs. If the pre-collapse white dwarf is rapidly rotating, the collapsed object will contain a high density central core of size about 20 km, surrounded by a massive accretion torus extending to hundreds of kilometers from the rotation axis. The ratio of the rotational kinetic energy to gravitational binding energy, β, of these neutron stars is all found to be less than 0.27.

Chapter 3 studies the dynamical stability of these neutron stars by numerically evolving the linearized hydrodynamical equations. A dynamical bar-mode instability is observed when the β of the star is greater than the critical value β_d ≈ 0.25. It is expected that the unstable mode will persist until a substantial amount of angular momentum is carried away by gravitational radiation. The detectability of these sources is studied and it is estimated that LIGO II is unlikely to detect them unless the event rate is greater than 10^-6/year/galaxy.

All the calculations on the structure and stability of the neutron stars in Chapters 2 and 3 are carried out using Newtonian hydrodynamics and gravity. Chapter 4 studies the relativistic effects on the structure of these neutron stars. New techniques are developed and used to construct neutron star models to the first post-Newtonian (1PN) order. The structures of the 1PN models are qualitatively similar to the corresponding Newtonian models, but the values of β are somewhat smaller. The maximum β for these 1PN neutron stars is found to be 0.24, which is 8% smaller than the Newtonian result (0.26). However, relativistic effects will also change the critical value β_d. A detailed post-Newtonian stability analysis has yet to be carried out to study the relativistic effects on the dynamical stability of these neutron stars.

I. Foehn winds of southern California. II. Foehn wind cyclo-genesis. III. Weather conditions associated with the Akron disaster. IV. The Los Angeles storm of December 30, 1933 to January 1, 1934

I. Foehn winds of southern California.
An investigation of the hot, dry and dust laden winds occurring in the late fall and early winter in the Los Angeles Basin and attributed in the past to the influences of the desert regions to the north revealed that these currents were of a foehn nature. Their properties were found to be entirely due to dynamical heating produced in the descent from the high level areas in the interior to the lower Los Angeles Basin. Any dust associated with the phenomenon was found to be acquired from the Los Angeles area rather than transported from the desert. It was found that the frequency of occurrence of a mild type foehn of this nature during this season was sufficient to warrant its classification as a winter monsoon. This results from the topography of the Los Angeles region which allows an easy entrance to the air from the interior by virtue of the low level mountain passes north of the area. This monsoon provides the mild winter climate of southern California since temperatures associated with the foehn currents are far higher than those experienced when maritime air from the adjacent Pacific Ocean occupies the region.

II. Foehn wind cyclo-genesis.
Intense anticyclones frequently build up over the high level regions of the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau which lie between the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Mountains to the west and the Rocky Mountains to the east. The outflow from these anticyclones produce extensive foehns east of the Rockies in the comparatively low level areas of the middle west and the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Normally at this season of the year very cold polar continental air masses are present over this territory and with the occurrence of these foehns marked discontinuity surfaces arise between the warm foehn current, which is obliged to slide over a colder mass, and the Pc air to the east. Cyclones are easily produced from this phenomenon and take the form of unstable waves which propagate along the discontinuity surface between the two dissimilar masses. A continual series of such cyclones was found to occur as long as the Great Basin anticyclone is maintained with undiminished intensity.

III. Weather conditions associated with the Akron disaster.
This situation illustrates the speedy development and propagation of young disturbances in the eastern United States during the spring of the year under the influence of the conditionally unstable tropical maritime air masses which characterise the region. It also furnishes an excellent example of the superiority of air mass and frontal methods of weather prediction for aircraft operation over the older methods based upon pressure distribution.

IV. The Los Angeles storm of December 30, 1933 to January 1, 1934.
This discussion points out some of the fundamental interactions occurring between air masses of the North Pacific Ocean in connection with Pacific Coast storms and the value of topographic and aerological considerations in predicting them. Estimates of rainfall intensity and duration from analyses of this type may be made and would prove very valuable in the Los Angeles area in connection with flood control problems.

New Insights from Aperiodic Variability of Young Stars

Nearly all young stars are variable, with the variability traditionally divided into two classes: periodic variables and aperiodic or "irregular" variables. Periodic variables have been studied extensively, typically using periodograms, while aperiodic variables have received much less attention due to a lack of standard statistical tools. However, aperiodic variability can serve as a powerful probe of young star accretion physics and inner circumstellar disk structure. For my dissertation, I analyzed data from a large-scale, long-term survey of the nearby North America Nebula complex, using Palomar Transient Factory photometric time series collected on a nightly or every few night cadence over several years. This survey is the most thorough exploration of variability in a sample of thousands of young stars over time baselines of days to years, revealing a rich array of lightcurve shapes, amplitudes, and timescales.

I have constrained the timescale distribution of all young variables, periodic and aperiodic, on timescales from less than a day to ~100 days. I have shown that the distribution of timescales for aperiodic variables peaks at a few days, with relatively few (~15%) sources dominated by variability on tens of days or longer. My constraints on aperiodic timescale distributions are based on two new tools, magnitude- vs. time-difference (Δm-Δt) plots and peak-finding plots, for describing aperiodic lightcurves; this thesis provides simulations of their performance and presents recommendations on how to apply them to aperiodic signals in other time series data sets. In addition, I have measured the error introduced into colors or SEDs from combining photometry of variable sources taken at different epochs. These are the first quantitative results to be presented on the distributions in amplitude and time scale for young aperiodic variables, particularly those varying on timescales of weeks to months.