A gestão do risco de liquidez e a concessão de crédito durante os períodos de crise

Dissertação de Mestrado Apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação do Doutor Mário Joel Matos Veiga de Oliveira Queirós.

Mota-Engil new prospects of growth: Overcoming the financial crisis

The 2008 global financial crisis caused the collapse of business key sectors, declines in consumer wealth and a fall in economic activity resulting in a global recession. In some European countries, the 2008 crisis contributed to a sovereign-debt crisis which had a strong impact in Southern European countries. The construction sector was particularly affected, with budget cuts disturbing public investment and no financing available for private constructors. This report intends to explain how Mota-Engil, faced this situation of low growth, and which strategies were adopted by the management to overcome the difficult economic conjecture, mainly in its domestic market: Portugal. The report is organized as a case-study. The first part, the case narrative, is subdivided into 6 parts, and the second part is the teaching note. The teaching note is constituted by the four questions and their respective responses.

Banks and sovereigns: An econometric analysis of an entangled relationship

In this discussion OLS regressions are used to study the factors that influence sovereign yield spreads and domestic bank indeces for a set of euro area countries. The results show that common factors explain changes in bank indeces better than in the yields. Moreover, although there is some country differentiation, a common pattern among all is visible. A contemporary spillover effect between banks and sovereigns emerged after bank bailouts and became stronger with the burst of the sovereign debt crisis. The vicious cycle between the two has contributed to the escalation of spreads and to painful austerity measures.

Banco BPI and the reimbursement of contingent convertible subordinated bonds (CoCos)

This case study focuses on the BPI’s recapitalization plan, its causes and the reasons for the early reimbursement of CoCos in June 2014. The need for a capital intervention and the subsequent subscription agreement with the Portuguese Government of €1 500 million Core Tier 1 instruments were the result of a temporary capital buffer for sovereign debt exposures imposed by the European Banking Authority. The capital increase, the positive earnings in 2012 and 2013, the improvements in the sovereign debt crisis, the implementation of Basel III, in addition to the public exchange offer and the conversion of deferred tax assets into tax credits are the main factors for concluding the entire recapitalization operation three years before the deadline.

CTT, the mail going public

The main purpose of this case-study is to analyse CTT’s privatisation process, a previously Government-owned firm, which went public in 2013, under the terms of the adjustment program agreed between Portugal, the European institutions (ECB and European Commission) and the IMF. The emphasis will be placed on the IPO process, but also on the company itself (its history, current situation and prospects for its new phase, as a publicly listed company). This piece of work aims to evaluate the different alternatives for the privatisation of the company along with the respective implications, as well as the outcome of the actual decision taken by the Portuguese Government. One key aspect of the case is also to understand the importance that the privatisation of the Royal Mail, which can be seen as a peer of the Portuguese company, in the unfolding of the process and in the choice of the privatisation model. The case intends to show how the British process influenced the subsequent option of the Portuguese entities to sell CTT through an IPO, instead of a trade sale. All in all, the overall objective of this case-study is to analyse CTT’s successful sale process, which created the first Portuguese company with 100% free-float. 3 On the last days of November 2013, Steven Bernstein was staring at the window of his office overlooking downtown Manhattan, not even noticing the intense rain that was pouring down. As senior manager at ABC Fund, a pension fund responsible for managing more than 800 million dollars, his thoughts were focused on a very important decision that ABC Fund would have to make in just a matter of days. The American pension fund was considering whether or not to invest in the upcoming Initial Public Offering of CTT- Correios de Portugal, the Government-owned Portuguese mail company. Is this investment opportunity in accordance with the risk profile of a pension fund? Is it a wise decision to acquire shares in a Portuguese company when the country is at the centre of the European Sovereign debt crisis, going through a very demanding economic adjustment program imposed by its bail-out creditors? Would the creation of Portugal's Postal Bank make CTT a sure bet today when its price does not fully reflect the future benefits from entering financial services? Those were some of the questions that were constantly in Mr. Bernstein’s mind over the last couple of days and he was struggling to find the answers…

Análisis de la crisis financiera de estados unidos (2007-2008) y la crisis de deuda (2011): su relación e impacto sobre uno de los fundamentales de la economía colombiana, la tasa de cambio

Este documento presenta una perspectiva de como una economía pequeña y abierta (en temas comerciales y de inversión) como la colombiana, se ve afectada por choques que sufren economías grandes como la estadounidense. Durante el periodo de estudio la economía de Estados Unidos sufrió dos choques: primero la crisis de las hipotecas subprime en los años 2007-2008; luego la crisis de deuda soberana de Estados Unidos en 2011. Estos dos choques afectaron la economía colombiana. En ambos casos, se puede establecer un hecho clave que detonó las crisis. En el primero, la entrada en el capítulo 11 de protección a bancarrotas por parte de Lehman Brothers, el 15 de septiembre de 2008. En el segundo, el detonante fue la baja de la calificación de la deuda soberana de Estados Unidos por parte de Standard and Poor´s el 5 de agosto de 2011. Estos días claves en las crisis, afectaron los principales índices de la bolsa de Estados Unidos, especialmente los relacionados con la actividad financiera, luego es de suponer que posiblemente también afectaron fundamentales de la economía colombiana como lo es la tasa de cambio peso-dólar (USD/COP). Este documento tiene como objeto principal, establecer el impacto de las crisis Norteamericana de 2007-2008 y de 2011, sobre la economía colombiana, específicamente sobre la tasa de cambio USD/COP. El documento también, analiza las causas que generaron dichas crisis en Estados Unidos, haciendo énfasis en la falta de regulación y control por parte de las instituciones del gobierno en la crisis de las hipotecas subprime. De igual forma se analiza el papel de las firmas calificadoras de riesgo, en la crisis de deuda estadounidense.

El papel de las organizaciones Internacionales en la imagen de los Estados en el escenario internacional: La crisis Financiera de Argentina y la actuación del Fondo Monetario Internacional 2000- 2010

El presente trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo identificar el papel que tuvo el Fondo Monetario Internacional [FMI] en el cambio de la imagen del Estado argentino después de la crisis financiera que estalló en el 2001. Como consecuencia de la declaración de default por parte del gobierno argentino se da un cambio en la imagen financiera del país, influenciada por el FMI, que convierte a Argentina en un paria internacional en temas financieros y comerciales alejándolo de los mercados internacionales. Este estudio de caso tendrá un acercamiento cualitativo dado que se analizarán las características, actuaciones y las bases crean el lazo entre las variables de la crisis financiera y el rol del FMI en Argentina y así poder entender su relación.

Estructura a Plazo Colombia: Modelo Afín de tres factores

La estimación e interpretación de la estructura a plazo de la tasas de interés es de gran relevancia porque permite realizar pronósticos, es fundamental para la toma de decisiones de política monetaria y fiscal, es esencial en la administración de riesgos y es insumo para la valoración de diferentes activos financieros. Por estas razones, es necesario entender que puede provocar un movimiento en la estructura a plazo. En este trabajo se estiman un modelo afín exponencial de tres factores aplicado a los rendimientos de los títulos en pesos de deuda pública colombianos. Los factores estimados son la tasa corta, la media de largo plazo de la tasa corta y la volatilidad de la tasa corta. La estimación se realiza para el periodo enero 2010 a mayo de 2015 y se realiza un análisis de correlaciones entre los tres factores. Posterior a esto, con los factores estimados se realiza una regresión para identificar la importancia que tiene cada uno de estos en el comportamiento de las tasas de los títulos de deuda pública colombiana para diferentes plazos al vencimiento. Finalmente, se estima la estructura a plazo de las tasas de interés para Colombia y se identifica la relación de los factores estimados con los encontrados por Litterman y Scheinkman [1991] correspondientes al nivel, pendiente y curvatura.

Unholy compromise in the eurozone and how to right it. CEPS Policy Brief No. 277, 16 July 2012

This paper reviews the causes of the ongoing crisis in the eurozone and the policies needed to restore stability in financial markets and reassure a bewildered public. Its main message is that the EU will not overcome the crisis until it has a comprehensive and convincing set of policies in place; able to address simultaneously budgetary discipline and the sovereign debt crisis, the banking crisis, adequate liquidity provision by the ECB and dismal growth. The text updates and expands on his Policy Brief contributed in the run-up to the emergency European Council meeting at the end of June.

What distinguishes the euro crisis from a ‘normal’ financial crisis? CEPS Commentary, 6 November 2012

This Commentary attempts to discern the distinguishing features between the present euro crisis and the financial crisis brought on in the US by the subprime lending disaster and the ensuing collapse of banks and other financial institutions in 2007-08. It finds that whereas the US was able to bring its crisis to an end by socialising the dubious debt and stabilising its valuation so that it could migrate to other investors capable of bearing the risk, this pattern can be only partly repeated in the eurozone, where both debt socialisation and a return to normal risk assessment are more problematic.. It concludes, nevertheless, that the crisis should now abate somewhat given that most risk-averse institutions have by now sold their holdings of peripheral countries’ sovereign debt and especially in light of the ECB’s assurances that it will not allow the euro to disintegrate.

The Prize is more Peace: The EU should consolidate its enlargement process. CEPS Commentary, 8 November 2012

The sovereign debt crisis and the threat of financial collapse of some EU member states have triggered fierce debate about the economic, social and political finalité of the Union and curbed the appetite for further enlargement. The European Commission needs to find new ways to consolidate the enlargement agenda, gain full support of the member states for its implementation and assure a consistent application of the pre-accession requirements. Arguably, more time, more money and greater expertise are needed to pursue the vocation recognised by the Nobel Committee.

When the rising dragon sees fading stars: China's view of the European Union. CEPS Special Report No. 73, 29 November 2012

This CEPS Special Report gives an overview of China’s perceptions of the EU and the protection of Chinese investments in Europe since the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis, especially since the more concrete talks in late 2011 on possible financial support from China. Although the top leadership of the communist party of China (CPC) changed in its recent handover, the perceptions described in this paper are likely to remain the same, just as the main tenets of China’s foreign policy are unlikely to change in the near future. The report argues that while the EU’s image has suffered greatly from the sovereign debt crisis and the way it has been handled, there is room to improve China’s view of Europe and for the EU to maintain a relatively strong negotiation position towards China.

The credit relationship between Henry III and merchants of Douai and Ypres, 1247-70

This article looks at an important but neglected aspect of medieval sovereign debt, namely ‘accounts payable’ owed by the Crown to merchants and employees. It focuses on the unusually well-documented relationship between Henry III, King of England between 1216 and 1272, and Flemish merchants from the towns of Douai and Ypres, who provided cloth on credit to the royal wardrobe. From the surviving royal documents, we reconstruct the credit advanced to the royal wardrobe by the merchants of Ypres and Douai for each year between 1247 and 1270, together with the king's repayment history. The interactions between the king and the merchants are then analysed. The insights from this analysis are applied to the historical data to explain the trading decisions made by the merchants during this period, as well as why the strategies of the Yprois sometimes differed from those of the Douaissiens.

Price discovery of credit spreads in tranquil and crisis periods

In this paper we investigate the price discovery process in single-name credit spreads obtained from bond, credit default swap (CDS), equity and equity option prices. We analyse short term price discovery by modelling daily changes in credit spreads in the four markets with a vector autoregressive model (VAR). We also look at price discovery in the long run with a vector error correction model (VECM). We find that in the short term the option market clearly leads the other markets in the sub-prime crisis (2007-2009). During the less severe sovereign debt crisis (2009-2012) and the pre-crisis period, options are still important but CDSs become more prominent. In the long run, deviations from the equilibrium relationship with the option market still lead to adjustments in the credit spreads observed or implied from other markets. However, options no longer dominate price discovery in any of the periods considered. Our findings have implications for traders, credit risk managers and financial regulators.

Haircut undone? The Greek drama and prospects for investment arbitration

As a result of the sovereign debt crisis that engulfed Europe in 2010, investors are much more likely to pursue dispute resolution options when faced with losses. This paper seeks to examine the position of investors who suffered losses in the Greek haircut of 2012 in the context of investment treaty arbitration. The paper evaluates arguments that investments in Greek sovereign bonds have been expropriated by the introduction of retrofit CACs and that compensation is payable as a result of the protections offered by BITs. The paper investigates whether sovereign bonds come within the definition of protected investment in BITs, assesses the degree to which CACs act as a jurisdictional bar to investor-state claims and attempts an evaluation of whether claims could be successful. The analysis uses as an illustration recent cases brought against Greece at ICSID. The paper concludes by considering whether the Greek haircut was expropriatory and reflects on the possible outcome of current arbitrations.