Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

Performing inclusion and exclusion in the peer group. Children's social organization and peer socializing practices in the classroom

This PhD thesis investigates children’s peer practices in two primary schools in Italy, focusing on the ordinary and the Italian L2 classroom. The study is informed by the paradigm of language socialization and considers peer interactions as a ‘double opportunity space’, allowing both children’s co-construction of their social organization and children’s sociolinguistic development. These two foci of attention are explored on the basis of children’s social interaction and of the verbal, embodied, and material resources that children agentively deploy during their mundane activities in the peer group. The study is based on a video ethnography that lasted nine months. Approximately 30 hours of classroom interactions were video-recorded, transcribed, and analyzed with an approach that combines the micro-analytic instruments of Conversation Analysis and the use of ethnographic information. Three main social phenomena were selected for analysis: (a) children’s enactment of the role of the teacher, (b) children’s reproduction of must-formatted rules, and (c) children’s argumentative strategies during peer conflict. The analysis highlights the centrality of the institutional frame for children’s peer interactions in the classroom. Moreover, the study illustrates that children socialize their classmates to the linguistic, social, and moral expectations of the context in and through various practices. Notably, these practices are also germane to the local negotiation of children’s social organization and hierarchy. Therefore, the thesis underlines that children’s peer interactions are both a resource for children’s sociolinguistic development and a potentially problematic locus where social exclusion is constructed and brought to bear. These insights are relevant for teachers’ professional practice. Children’s peer interactions are a resource that can be integrated in everyday didactics. Nevertheless, the role of the teacher in supervising and steering children’s peer practices appears crucial: an acritical view of children’s autonomous work, often implied in teaching methods such as peer tutoring, needs to be problematized.

Periodontal outcomes and social, racial and gender inequalities in Brazil: a systematic review of the literature between 1999 and 2008

The objective of this study was to review the Brazilian epidemiologic literature on periodontal outcomes and socio-demographic factors, assessing bibliographic and methodological characteristics of this scientific production, as well as the consistency and statistical significance of the examined associations. A systematic review was carried out in six bibliographic sources. The review was limited to the period between 1999 and 2008, without any other type of restriction. Among the 410 papers identified, 29 were included in the review. An increasing number of articles, specifically in the last four years of study, was observed. However, there is a concentration of studies in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil, and many of them are not closely connected to theoretical formulations in the field. In spite of these shortcomings, the review findings corroborate the idea that poor socioeconomic conditions are associated with periodontal outcomes, as demonstrated primarily by income and schooling indicators.

Remembering sport history: Narrative, social memory and the origins of the rugby league in Australia

This study examines the historiography of the origins of rugby league in Australia. By accepting the inclusive nature of representation of the past as found in social memory theory, a wide range of sources ranging from histories written by academics to annuals, yearbooks and newspaper books are consulted. These sources reveal that there are several competing and conflicting accounts of the emergence of rugby league in Australia. These divergent accounts are used to facilitate a discussion of the role of narrative in sport history This article argues that narrative is an integral, not optional, feature of the production of history and that the historography of the origins of rugby league highlight the problematic nature of objectivity in history and the unavoidable, impositionalist role of the historian.

The People's Stage in Imperial Germany: Social Democracy and Culture 1890-1914

The clash between German Social Democracy--the party, intellectuals and workers--and the German Imperial State was played out in the Freie Volksbahne (Free People's Theatre) founded by intellectuals to energise working class political awareness of drama with a political and social cutting edge. It fell foul of state censorship, lost its bite, yet prospered.

Perceptions of a media campaign: The role of social identity and the changing intergroup context

This study examined the effects of political identity and the changing intergroup context on communication perceptions during an election campaign. Perceptions of media bias and of campaign impact on self and others were assessed before and after the election. The responses of politically aligned voters reflected their membership in a dominant or subordinate group preelection and in a losing or winning group postelection. Dominant group members were initially less biased in their views of the campaign and its impact but sought to blame their party's loss on media bias and on the gullibility of political out-group members and voters in general. Subordinate group members initially showed strong in-group-serving biases but were less critical of the media and the electorate after their party had won. Results highlight the dynamic, intergroup, nature of media perceptions.

Social democracy and market reform in Australia and New Zealand

Social democratic governments in Australia and New Zealand adopted policies of radical free-market reform, including financial deregulation, privatization, and public-sector reform in the 1980s. Because of the absence of institutional obstacles to government action, reform was faster and more comprehensive in New Zealand than in Australia. The New Zealand reforms were associated with increasing inequality and generally poor economic outcomes. There is nothing in the New Zealand experience to support the view that radical free-market economic policies are consistent with social democratic welfare policies or with social democratic values of concern for the disadvantaged, The Australian reforms were less radical, and were accompanied by some refurbishment of the welfare state. Economic performance did nor improve, as anticipated by advocates of reform, but was considerably better than that of New Zealand.

Social identity and perceptions of media persuasion: Are we always less influenced than others?

People typically perceive negative media content (e.g., violence) to have more impact on others than on themselves (a third-person effect). To examine the perceived effects of positive content (e.g., public-service advertisements) and the moderating role of social identities, we examined students' perceptions of the impact of AIDS advertisements on self, students (in- group), nonstudents (out-group), and people in general. Perceived self-other differences varied with the salience of student identity. Low identifiers displayed the typical third-person effect, whereas high identifiers were more willing to acknowledge impact on themselves and the student in-group. Further, when influence was normatively accept able within the in-group, high identifiers perceived self and students (us) as more influenced than nonstudents (them). The theoretical and practical implications of this reversal in third-person perceptions are discussed.

Social identity and self-categorization processes in organizational contexts

Although aspects of social identity theory are familiar to organizational psychologists, its elaboration, through self-categorization theory, of how social categorization and prototype-based depersonalization actually produce social identity effects is less well known. We describe these processes, relate self-categorization theory to social identity theory, describe new theoretical developments in detail, and show how these developments can address a: range of organizational phenomena. We discuss cohesion and deviance, leadership, subgroup and sociodemographic structure, and mergers and acquisitions.

Social-cognitive and perceived environment influences associated with physical activity in older Australians

Background, Regular physical activity in older adults can facilitate healthy aging, improve functional capacity, and prevent disease. However, factors associated with physical inactivity in older populations are poorly understood. This study attempts to identify social-cognitive and perceived environmental influences associated with physical activity participation in older populations. Methods. In a randomly selected sample of 449 Australian adults age 60 and older, we assessed self-reported physical activity and a range of social-cognitive and perceived environmental factors. Respondents were classified as sufficiently active and inactive based on energy expenditure estimates (kcal/week) derived from self-reported physical activity. Two logistic regression models, with and without self-efficacy included, were conducted to identify modifiable independent predictors of physical activity. Results. Significantly more males than females were physically active. Physical activity participation was related to age with a greater proportion of those age 65-69 being active than those age 60-64 or 70 or older. High self-efficacy, regular participation of friends and family, finding footpaths safe for walking, and access to local facilities were significantly associated with being active. Conclusion. Identifying predictors of physical activity in older populations, particularly social support, facility access, and neighbourhood safety, can inform the development of policy and intervention strategies to promote the health of older people. (C) 2000 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.

Prey capture and accommodation in the sandlance, Limnichthyes fasciatus (Creediidae; Teleostei)

The eyes of the sandlance, Limnichthyes fasciatus (Creediidae. Teleostei) move independently and possess a refractive cornea, a convexiclivate fovea and a non-spherical lens giving rise to a wide separation of the nodal point from the axis of rotation of the eye much like that of a chameleon. To investigate this apparent convergence of the visual optics in these phylogenetically disparate species, we examine feeding behaviour and accommodation in the sandlance with special reference to the possibility that sandlances use accommodation as a depth cue to judge strike length. Frame-by-frame analysis of over 2000 strikes show a 100% success rate. Explosive strikes are completed in 50 ms over prey distances of four body lengths. Close-up video confirms that successful strikes can be initiated monocularly (both normally and after monocular occlusion) showing that binocular cues are not necessary to judge the length of a strike. Additional means of judging prey distance may also be derived from parallax information generated by rotation of the eye as suggested for chameleons. Using photorefraction on anaesthetised sandlances, accommodative changes were induced with acetylcholine and found to range between 120 D and 180 D at a speed of 600-720 D s(-1). The large range of accommodation (25% of the total power) is also thought to be mediated by corneal accommodation where the contraction of a unique cornealis muscle acts to change the corneal curvatures.