Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Constructing leadership in child care : epistemological beliefs and transformational leadership

Early childhood education and care (ECEC) in Australia are currently a focus of social and economic policy. However, early childhood leadership in Australia is yet to develop a clear identity that will enable the field to develop to its full potential. In this paper we investigate a unique theoretical framework for constructing leadership identity, based on transformational leadership and epistemological beliefs. Using semistructured interviews, 15 childcare directors from a large metropolitan area in Australia were asked to describe their beliefs about knowing in the context of their leadership practices. The findings showed that leaders (n = 5) who espoused predominantly evaluativist beliefs about knowing were more likely to describe transformational leadership behaviours in the context of childcare leadership. A number of leaders held mixed beliefs (n = 9) about knowing and described their leadership practice in ways that reflected both transactional and transformational leadership styles. Finally, one leader described predominantly objectivist epistemological beliefs and transactional beliefs about leadership. These preliminary findings show that there seems to be a relationship between core epistemological beliefs and beliefs about leadership practices and offers a new way to characterise leadership in ECEC in Australia.

Thermal analysis of hydrotalcite synthesised from aluminate solutions

The aluminate hydrotalcites are proposed to have either of the following formulas: Mg4Al2(OH)12(CO3 2-)·xH2O or Mg4Al2(OH)12(CO3 2-, SO4 2-)·xH2O. A pure hydrotalcite phase forms when magnesium chloride and aluminate solns. are mixed at a 1:1 volumetric ratio at pH 14. The synthesis of the aluminate hydrotalcites using seawater results in the formation of an impurity phase bayerite. Two decompn. steps have been identified for the aluminate hydrotalcites: (1) removal of interlayer water (230 °C) and (2) simultaneous dehydroxylation and decarbonation (330 °C).

A hybrid radiation detector for simultaneous spatial and temporal dosimetry

In this feasibility study an organic plastic scintillator is calibrated against ionisation chamber measurements and then embedded in a polymer gel dosimeter to obtain a quasi-4D experimental measurement of a radiation field. This hybrid dosimeter was irradiated with a linear accelerator, with temporal measurements of the dose rate being acquired by the scintillator and spatial measurements acquired with the gel dosimeter. The detectors employed in this work are radiologically equivalent; and we show that neither detector perturbs the intensity of the radiation field of the other. By employing these detectors in concert, spatial and temporal variations in the radiation intensity can now be detected and gel dosimeters can be calibrated for absolute dose from a single irradiation.

Lateral distortional buckling tests of a new hollow flange channel beam

The LiteSteel beam (LSB) is a new hollow flange channel section developed by OneSteel Australian Tube Mills using their patented dual electric resistance welding and automated continuous roll-forming process. It has a unique geometry consisting of torsionally rigid rectangular hollow flanges and a relatively slender web. The LSBs are commonly used as flexural members in buildings. However, the LSB flexural members are subjected to lateral distortional buckling, which reduces their member moment capacities. Unlike the commonly observed lateral torsional buckling of steel beams, the lateral distortional buckling of LSBs is characterised by simultaneous lateral deflection, twist, and cross sectional change due to web distortion. An experimental study including more than 50 lateral buckling tests was therefore conducted to investigate the behaviour and strength of LSB flexural members. It included the available 13 LSB sections with spans ranging from 1200 to 4000 mm. Lateral buckling tests based on a quarter point loading were conducted using a special test rig designed to simulate the required simply supported and loading conditions accurately. Experimental moment capacities were compared with the predictions from the design rules in the Australian cold-formed steel structures standard. The new design rules in the standard were able to predict the moment capacities more accurately than previous design rules. This paper presents the details of lateral distortional buckling tests, in particular the features of the lateral buckling test rig, the results and the comparisons. It also includes the results of detailed studies into the mechanical properties and residual stresses of LSBs.

Nitrone [2]rotaxanes: Simultaneous chemical protection and electrochemical activation of a functional group

We report on the use of the hydrogen bond accepting properties of neutral nitrone moieties to prepare benzylic-amide-macrocycle-containing [2]rotaxanes in yields as high as 70 %. X-Ray crystallography shows the presence of up to four intercomponent hydrogen bonds between the amide groups of the macrocycle and the two nitrone groups of the thread. Dynamic 1H NMR studies of the rates of macrocycle pirouetting in nonpolar solutions indicate that amide-nitrone hydrogen bonds are particularly strong, ~1.3 and ~0.2 kcal mol-1 stronger than similar amide-ester and amide-amide interactions, respectively. In addition to polarizing the N-O bond through hydrogen bonding, the rotaxane structure affects the chemistry of the nitrone groups in two significant ways: The intercomponent hydrogen bonding activates the nitrone groups to electrochemical reduction, a one electron reduction of the rotaxane being stablized by a remarkable 400 mV (8.1 kcal mol-1) with respect to the same process in the thread; encapsulation, however, protects the same functional groups from chemical reduction with an external reagent (and slows down electron transfer to and from the electroactive groups in cyclicvoltammetry experiments). Mechanical interlocking with a hydrogen bonding molecular sheath thus provides a route to an encapsulated polarized functional group and radical anions of significant kinetic and thermodynamic stability.

Investigation of the effect of organics on the water uptake of marine aerosols

Water uptake refers to the ability of atmospheric particles to take up water vapour from the surrounding atmosphere. This is an important property that affects particle size and phase and therefore influences many characteristics of aerosols relevant to air quality and climate. However, the water uptake properties of many important atmospheric aerosol systems, including those related to the oceans, are still not fully understood. Therefore, the primary aim of this PhD research program was to investigate the water uptake properties of marine aerosols. In particular, the effect of organics on marine aerosol water uptake was investigated. Field campaigns were conducted at remote coastal sites on the east coast of Australia (Agnes Water; March-April 2007) and west coast of Ireland (Mace Head; June 2007), and laboratory measurements were performed on bubble-generated sea spray aerosols. A combined Volatility-Hygroscopicity-Tandem Differential Mobility Analyser (VH-TDMA) was employed in all experiments. This system probes the changes in the hygroscopic properties of nanoparticles as volatile organic components are progressively evaporated. It also allows particle composition to be inferred from combined volatility-hygroscopicity measurements. Frequent new particle formation and growth events were observed during the Agnes Water campaign. The VH-TDMA was used to investigate freshly nucleated particles (17-22.5 nm) and it was found that the condensation of sulphate and/or organic vapours was responsible for driving particle growth during the events. Aitken mode particles (~40 nm) were also measured with the VH-TDMA. In 3 out of 18 VH-TDMA scans evaporation of a volatile, organic component caused a very large increase in hygroscopicity that could only be explained by an increase in the absolute water uptake of the particle residuals, and not merely an increase in their relative hygroscopicity. This indicated the presence of organic components that were suppressing the hygroscopic growth of mixed particles on the timescale of humidification in the VH-TDMA (6.5 secs). It was suggested that the suppression of water uptake was caused by either a reduced rate of hygroscopic growth due to the presence of organic films, or organic-inorganic interactions in solution droplets that had a negative effect on hygroscopicity. Mixed organic-inorganic particles were rarely observed by the VH-TDMA during the summer campaign conducted at Mace Head. The majority of particles below 100 nm in clean, marine air appeared to be sulphates neutralised to varying degrees by ammonia. On one unique day, 26 June 2007, particularly large concentrations of sulphate aerosol were observed and identified as volcanic emissions from Iceland. The degree of neutralisation of the sulphate aerosol by ammonia was calculated by the VH-TDMA and found to compare well with the same quantity measured by an aerosol mass spectrometer. This was an important verification of the VH-TMDA‘s ability to identify ammoniated sulphate aerosols based on the simultaneous measurement of aerosol volatility and hygroscopicity. A series of measurements were also conducted on sea spray aerosols generated from Moreton Bay seawater samples in a laboratory-based bubble chamber. Accumulation mode sea spray particles (38-173 nm) were found to contain only a minor organic fraction (< 10%) that had little effect on particle hygroscopicity. These results are important because previous studies have observed that accumulation mode sea spray particles are predominantly organic (~80% organic mass fraction). The work presented here suggests that this is not always the case, and that there may be currently unknown factors that are controlling the transfer of organics to the aerosol phase during the bubble bursting process. Taken together, the results of this research program have significantly improved our understanding of organic-containing marine aerosols and the way they interact with water vapour in the atmosphere.