Estimation of a probability in inverse binomial sampling under normalized linear-linear and inverse-linear loss

Sequential estimation of the success probability $p$ in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator $\hatvap$, its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters $a$ and $b$ for $\hatvap < p$ and $\hatvap > p$ respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as $p \rightarrow 0$, and which guarantee that, for any $p \in (0,1)$, the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, $\nnum$, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown $p$. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when $a/b$ does not deviate too much from $1$, and asymptotically minimax as $\nnum \rightarrow \infty$ when $a=b$.

Sequential choice from several populations.

We consider the problem of sampling sequentially from two or more populations in such a way as to maximize the expected sum of outcomes in the long run.

Bayesian Emulation for Sequential Modeling, Inference and Decision Analysis

The advances in three related areas of state-space modeling, sequential Bayesian learning, and decision analysis are addressed, with the statistical challenges of scalability and associated dynamic sparsity. The key theme that ties the three areas is Bayesian model emulation: solving challenging analysis/computational problems using creative model emulators. This idea defines theoretical and applied advances in non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space modeling, dynamic sparsity, decision analysis and statistical computation, across linked contexts of multivariate time series and dynamic networks studies. Examples and applications in financial time series and portfolio analysis, macroeconomics and internet studies from computational advertising demonstrate the utility of the core methodological innovations.

Chapter 1 summarizes the three areas/problems and the key idea of emulating in those areas. Chapter 2 discusses the sequential analysis of latent threshold models with use of emulating models that allows for analytical filtering to enhance the efficiency of posterior sampling. Chapter 3 examines the emulator model in decision analysis, or the synthetic model, that is equivalent to the loss function in the original minimization problem, and shows its performance in the context of sequential portfolio optimization. Chapter 4 describes the method for modeling the steaming data of counts observed on a large network that relies on emulating the whole, dependent network model by independent, conjugate sub-models customized to each set of flow. Chapter 5 reviews those advances and makes the concluding remarks.

Temporal variation of the phytoplankton community at short sampling intervals in the Mundaú reservoir, Northeastern Brazil

The aim of this study was to determine how abiotic factors drive the phytoplankton community in a water supply reservoir within short sampling intervals. Samples were collected at the subsurface (0.1 m) and bottom of limnetic (8 m) and littoral (2 m) zones in both the dry and rainy seasons. The following abiotic variables were analyzed: water temperature, dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, turbidity, pH, total nitrogen, nitrite, nitrate, total phosphorus, total dissolved phosphorus and orthophosphate. Phytoplankton biomass was determined from biovolume values. The role abiotic variables play in the dynamics of phytoplankton species was determined by means of Canonical Correspondence Analysis. Algae biomass ranged from 1.17×10(4) to 9.21×10(4) µg.L-1; cyanobacteria had biomass values ranging from 1.07×10(4) to 8.21×10(4) µg.L-1. High availability of phosphorous, nitrogen limitation, alkaline pH and thermal stability all favored cyanobacteria blooms, particularly during the dry season. Temperature, pH, total phosphorous and turbidity were key factors in characterizing the phytoplankton community between sampling times and stations. Of the species studied, Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii populations were dominant in the phytoplankton in both the dry and rainy seasons. We conclude that the phytoplankton was strongly influenced by abiotic variables, particularly in relation to seasonal distribution patterns.

Analyzing the n→π* Electronic Transition of Formaldehyde in Water. A Sequential Monte Carlo/Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory

The n→π* absorption transition of formaldehyde in water is analyzed using combined and sequential classical Monte Carlo (MC) simulations and quantum mechanics (QM) calculations. MC simulations generate the liquid solute-solvent structures for subsequent QM calculations. Using time-dependent density functional theory in a localized set of gaussian basis functions (TD-DFT/6-311++G(d,p)) calculations are made on statistically relevant configurations to obtain the average solvatochromic shift. All results presented here use the electrostatic embedding of the solvent. The statistically converged average result obtained of 2300 cm-1 is compared to previous theoretical results available. Analysis is made of the effective dipole moment of the hydrogen-bonded shell and how it could be held responsible for the polarization of the solvent molecules in the outer solvation shells.

Demonstrando os fundamentos, potencialidades e limitações da análise por injeção seqüencial

The sensitivity and accuracy of sequential injection methods are dependent on efficient overlapping of reagent and sample zones as they are propelled toward the detector cell. The formation of the reduced phosphomolybdic acid is used to demonstrate that the overlapping efficiency in a fixed reaction coil relies on a suitable choice of reagent to sample volume ratio. Additionally, under poor mixing conditions or highly concentrated samples, the reaction extension is strongly dependent on the reagent concentration. The zone-sampling concept is exploited to determine phosphate in cola-based soft drinks after in-line dilution in an auxiliary coil.

Development of a flow through photo-reactor to study degradation of organic compounds by Sequential Injection Analysis (SIA)

This work describes a photo-reactor to perform in line degradation of organic compounds by photo-Fenton reaction using Sequential Injection Analysis (SIA) system. A copper phthalocyanine-3,4',4²,4²¢-tetrasulfonic acid tetrasodium salt dye solution was used as a model compound for the phthalocyanine family, whose pigments have a large use in automotive coatings industry. Based on preliminary tests, 97% of color removal was obtained from a solution containing 20 µmol L-1 of this dye.

Precision of distances and ordering of microsatellite markers in consensus linkage maps of chromosomes 1, 3 and 4 from two reciprocal chicken populations using bootstrap sampling

Some factors complicate comparisons between linkage maps from different studies. This problem can be resolved if measures of precision, such as confidence intervals and frequency distributions, are associated with markers. We examined the precision of distances and ordering of microsatellite markers in the consensus linkage maps of chromosomes 1, 3 and 4 from two F 2 reciprocal Brazilian chicken populations, using bootstrap sampling. Single and consensus maps were constructed. The consensus map was compared with the International Consensus Linkage Map and with the whole genome sequence. Some loci showed segregation distortion and missing data, but this did not affect the analyses negatively. Several inversions and position shifts were detected, based on 95% confidence intervals and frequency distributions of loci. Some discrepancies in distances between loci and in ordering were due to chance, whereas others could be attributed to other effects, including reciprocal crosses, sampling error of the founder animals from the two populations, F(2) population structure, number of and distance between microsatellite markers, number of informative meioses, loci segregation patterns, and sex. In the Brazilian consensus GGA1, locus LEI1038 was in a position closer to the true genome sequence than in the International Consensus Map, whereas for GGA3 and GGA4, no such differences were found. Extending these analyses to the remaining chromosomes should facilitate comparisons and the integration of several available genetic maps, allowing meta-analyses for map construction and quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping. The precision of the estimates of QTL positions and their effects would be increased with such information.

Phylogenetic relationships within the speciose family Characidae (Teleostei: Ostariophysi: Characiformes) based on multilocus analysis and extensive ingroup sampling

Background: With nearly 1,100 species, the fish family Characidae represents more than half of the species of Characiformes, and is a key component of Neotropical freshwater ecosystems. The composition, phylogeny, and classification of Characidae is currently uncertain, despite significant efforts based on analysis of morphological and molecular data. No consensus about the monophyly of this group or its position within the order Characiformes has been reached, challenged by the fact that many key studies to date have non-overlapping taxonomic representation and focus only on subsets of this diversity. Results: In the present study we propose a new definition of the family Characidae and a hypothesis of relationships for the Characiformes based on phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences of two mitochondrial and three nuclear genes (4,680 base pairs). The sequences were obtained from 211 samples representing 166 genera distributed among all 18 recognized families in the order Characiformes, all 14 recognized subfamilies in the Characidae, plus 56 of the genera so far considered incertae sedis in the Characidae. The phylogeny obtained is robust, with most lineages significantly supported by posterior probabilities in Bayesian analysis, and high bootstrap values from maximum likelihood and parsimony analyses. Conclusion: A monophyletic assemblage strongly supported in all our phylogenetic analysis is herein defined as the Characidae and includes the characiform species lacking a supraorbital bone and with a derived position of the emergence of the hyoid artery from the anterior ceratohyal. To recognize this and several other monophyletic groups within characiforms we propose changes in the limits of several families to facilitate future studies in the Characiformes and particularly the Characidae. This work presents a new phylogenetic framework for a speciose and morphologically diverse group of freshwater fishes of significant ecological and evolutionary importance across the Neotropics and portions of Africa.

Sequential hygienic behavior in Carniolan honey bees (Apis mellifera carnica)

We examined the sequence, order or steps of hygienic behavior (HB) from pin-killed pupae until the removal of them by the bees. We conducted our study with four colonies of Apis mellifera carnica in Germany and made four repetitions. The pin-killing method was used for evaluation of the HB of bees. The data were collected every 2 h after perforation, totaling 13 observations. Additionally, for one hygienic colony and another non-hygienic colony, individual analyses of each dead pupa were made at every observation, including all details, steps or sequences of HB. The bees recognize the cells containing dead pupae within 2 h after perforation, initially making a hole in the capping, which is the beginning of HB. Uncapping of the dead brood cell reached maximum values from 4 to 6 h after perforation; after 24 h, practically all cells were already uncapped. Another variable, called brood partially removed, was analyzed 4 h after perforation, after the cells had been perforated, which involved uncapping, followed by partial or total removal of the brood. Maximum values of brood partially removed were found 10 h after perforation, though such cells could be found up to 48 h after perforation. The most frequent sequence of events in both colonies was: capped cell -> punctured cell. brood partially removed -> empty cell. A new model of three pairs of recessive genes (uncapping u1, u2 and remover r) was proposed in order to explain the genetic control of the HB in Apis mellifera. We recommend evaluating HB 24 h after perforation and using a correction factor to compensate for control removal levels. We found a series of details of HB, which allow a study of how various factors may affect the sequence of the activities involved in HB and investigation of the genetics that controls this process.

Sequential analysis of global gene expression profiles in immature and in vitro matured bovine oocytes: potential molecular markers of oocyte maturation

Background: Without intensive selection, the majority of bovine oocytes submitted to in vitro embryo production (IVP) fail to develop to the blastocyst stage. This is attributed partly to their maturation status and competences. Using the Affymetrix GeneChip Bovine Genome Array, global mRNA expression analysis of immature (GV) and in vitro matured (IVM) bovine oocytes was carried out to characterize the transcriptome of bovine oocytes and then use a variety of approaches to determine whether the observed transcriptional changes during IVM was real or an artifact of the techniques used during analysis. Results: 8489 transcripts were detected across the two oocyte groups, of which similar to 25.0% (2117 transcripts) were differentially expressed (p < 0.001); corresponding to 589 over-expressed and 1528 under-expressed transcripts in the IVM oocytes compared to their immature counterparts. Over expression of transcripts by IVM oocytes is particularly interesting, therefore, a variety of approaches were employed to determine whether the observed transcriptional changes during IVM were real or an artifact of the techniques used during analysis, including the analysis of transcript abundance in oocytes in vitro matured in the presence of a-amanitin. Subsets of the differentially expressed genes were also validated by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) and the gene expression data was classified according to gene ontology and pathway enrichment. Numerous cell cycle linked (CDC2, CDK5, CDK8, HSPA2, MAPK14, TXNL4B), molecular transport (STX5, STX17, SEC22A, SEC22B), and differentiation (NACA) related genes were found to be among the several over-expressed transcripts in GV oocytes compared to the matured counterparts, while ANXA1, PLAU, STC1and LUM were among the over-expressed genes after oocyte maturation. Conclusion: Using sequential experiments, we have shown and confirmed transcriptional changes during oocyte maturation. This dataset provides a unique reference resource for studies concerned with the molecular mechanisms controlling oocyte meiotic maturation in cattle, addresses the existing conflicting issue of transcription during meiotic maturation and contributes to the global goal of improving assisted reproductive technology.

Comparative analysis of two sampling techniques for pollen gathered by Nannotrigona testaceicornis Lepeletier (Apidae, Meliponini)

Pollen counts from samples taken from storage pots throughout one year (from October to September) were adjusted by Tasei's volumetric correction coefficient for the determination of pollen sources exploited by two colonies of Nannotrigona testaceicornis in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The results obtained by this sampling technique for seven months (December to June) were compared with those from corbicula load samples taken within the same period. This species visited a large variety of plant species, but few of them were frequently used. As a rule, pollen sources that appeared at frequencies greater than 1% were found with both sampling methods and significant positive correlations (Spearman correlation coefficient) were found between their values. The pollen load sample data showed that N. testaceicornis gathered pollen throughout the external activity period.

Dynamic polarizability, Cauchy moments, and the optical absorption spectrum of liquid water: A sequential molecular dynamics/quantum mechanical approach

The dynamic polarizability and optical absorption spectrum of liquid water in the 6-15 eV energy range are investigated by a sequential molecular dynamics (MD)/quantum mechanical approach. The MD simulations are based on a polarizable model for liquid water. Calculation of electronic properties relies on time-dependent density functional and equation-of-motion coupled-cluster theories. Results for the dynamic polarizability, Cauchy moments, S(-2), S(-4), S(-6), and dielectric properties of liquid water are reported. The theoretical predictions for the optical absorption spectrum of liquid water are in good agreement with experimental information.

The isotropic nuclear magnetic shielding constants of acetone in supercritical water: A sequential Monte Carlo/quantum mechanics study including solute polarization

The nuclear isotropic shielding constants sigma((17)O) and sigma((13)C) of the carbonyl bond of acetone in water at supercritical (P=340.2 atm and T=673 K) and normal water conditions have been studied theoretically using Monte Carlo simulation and quantum mechanics calculations based on the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) method. Statistically uncorrelated configurations have been obtained from Monte Carlo simulations with unpolarized and in-solution polarized solute. The results show that solvent effects on the shielding constants have a significant contribution of the electrostatic interactions and that quantitative estimates for solvent shifts of shielding constants can be obtained modeling the water molecules by point charges (electrostatic embedding). In supercritical water, there is a decrease in the magnitude of sigma((13)C) but a sizable increase in the magnitude of sigma((17)O) when compared with the results obtained in normal water. It is found that the influence of the solute polarization is mild in the supercritical regime but it is particularly important for sigma((17)O) in normal water and its shielding effect reflects the increase in the average number of hydrogen bonds between acetone and water. Changing the solvent environment from normal to supercritical water condition, the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) calculations on the statistically uncorrelated configurations sampled from the Monte Carlo simulation give a (13)C chemical shift of 11.7 +/- 0.6 ppm for polarized acetone in good agreement with the experimentally inferred result of 9-11 ppm. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Electronic properties of liquid ammonia: A sequential molecular dynamics/quantum mechanics approach

The electronic properties of liquid ammonia are investigated by a sequential molecular dynamics/quantum mechanics approach. Quantum mechanics calculations for the liquid phase are based on a reparametrized hybrid exchange-correlation functional that reproduces the electronic properties of ammonia clusters [(NH(3))(n); n=1-5]. For these small clusters, electron binding energies based on Green's function or electron propagator theory, coupled cluster with single, double, and perturbative triple excitations, and density functional theory (DFT) are compared. Reparametrized DFT results for the dipole moment, electron binding energies, and electronic density of states of liquid ammonia are reported. The calculated average dipole moment of liquid ammonia (2.05 +/- 0.09 D) corresponds to an increase of 27% compared to the gas phase value and it is 0.23 D above a prediction based on a polarizable model of liquid ammonia [Deng , J. Chem. Phys. 100, 7590 (1994)]. Our estimate for the ionization potential of liquid ammonia is 9.74 +/- 0.73 eV, which is approximately 1.0 eV below the gas phase value for the isolated molecule. The theoretical vertical electron affinity of liquid ammonia is predicted as 0.16 +/- 0.22 eV, in good agreement with the experimental result for the location of the bottom of the conduction band (-V(0)=0.2 eV). Vertical ionization potentials and electron affinities correlate with the total dipole moment of ammonia aggregates. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.