Transdimensional sequential Monte Carlo using variational Bayes — SMCVB

A new transdimensional Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm called SM- CVB is proposed. In an SMC approach, a weighted sample of particles is generated from a sequence of probability distributions which ‘converge’ to the target distribution of interest, in this case a Bayesian posterior distri- bution. The approach is based on the use of variational Bayes to propose new particles at each iteration of the SMCVB algorithm in order to target the posterior more efficiently. The variational-Bayes-generated proposals are not limited to a fixed dimension. This means that the weighted particle sets that arise can have varying dimensions thereby allowing us the option to also estimate an appropriate dimension for the model. This novel algorithm is outlined within the context of finite mixture model estimation. This pro- vides a less computationally demanding alternative to using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo kernels within an SMC approach. We illustrate these ideas in a simulated data analysis and in applications.

Sequential MRI reveals individual level deformities in the growing scoliotic spine that are clinically masked by the Cobb angle

Introduction Clinically, the Cobb angle method measures the overall scoliotic curve in the coronal plane but does not measure individual vertebra and disc wedging. The contributions of the vertebrae and discs in the growing scoliotic spine were measured to investigate coronal plane deformity progression with growth. Methods A 0.49mm isotropic 3D MRI technique was developed to investigate the level-by-level changes that occur in the growing spine of a group of Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients, who received two to four sequential scans (spaced 3-12 months apart). The coronal plane wedge angles of each vertebra and disc in the major curve were measured to capture any changes that occurred during their adolescent growth phase. Results Seventeen patients had at least two scans. Mean patient age was 12.9 years (SD 1.5 years). Sixteen were classified as right-sided major thoracic Lenke Type 1 (one left sided). Mean standing Cobb angle at initial presentation was 31° (SD 12°). Six received two scans, nine three scans and two four scans, with 65% showing a Cobb angle progression of 5° or more between scans. Overall, there was no clear pattern of deformity progression of individual vertebrae and discs, nor between patients who progressed and those who didn’t. There were measurable changes in the wedging of the vertebrae and discs in all patients. In sequential scans, change in direction of wedging was also seen. In several patients there was reverse wedging in the discs that counteracted increased wedging of the vertebrae such that no change in overall Cobb angle was seen. Conclusion Sequential MRI data showed complex patterns of deformity progression. Changes to the wedging of individual vertebrae and discs may occur in patients who have no increase in Cobb angle measure; the Cobb method alone may be insufficient to capture the complex mechanisms of deformity progression.

Sequential MRI of growing scoliotic spines reveals individual level deformities that are clinically masked by the cobb angle

INTRODUCTION. Clinically, the Cobb angle method measures the overall scoliotic curve in the coronal plane but does not measure individual vertebra and disc wedging. The contributions of the vertebrae and discs in the growing scoliotic spine were measured to investigate coronal plane deformity progression with growth. METHODS. A 0.49mm isotropic 3D MRI technique was developed to investigate the level-by-level changes that occur in the growing spine of a group of Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients, who received two to four sequential scans (spaced 3-12 months apart). The coronal plane wedge angles of each vertebra and disc in the major curve were measured to capture any changes that occurred during their adolescent growth phase. RESULTS. Seventeen patients had at least two scans. Mean patient age was 12.9 years (SD 1.5 years). Sixteen were classified as right-sided major thoracic Lenke Type 1 (one left sided). Mean standing Cobb angle at initial presentation was 31° (SD 12°). Six received two scans, nine three scans and two four scans, with 65% showing a Cobb angle progression of 5° or more between scans. Overall, there was no clear pattern of deformity progression of individual vertebrae and discs, nor between patients who progressed and those who didn’t. There were measurable changes in the wedging of the vertebrae and discs in all patients. In sequential scans, change in direction of wedging was also seen. In several patients there was reverse wedging in the discs that counteracted increased wedging of the vertebrae such that no change in overall Cobb angle was seen. CONCLUSION. Sequential MRI data showed complex patterns of deformity progression. Changes to the wedging of individual vertebrae and discs may occur in patients who have no increase in Cobb angle measure; the Cobb method alone may be insufficient to capture the complex mechanisms of deformity progression.

Sequential MRI reveals individual level deformities in the growing scoliotic spine that are not seen clinically by the cobb angle

Clinically, the Cobb angle method measures the overall scoliotic curve in the coronal plane but does not measure individual vertebra and disc wedging. The contributions of the vertebrae and discs in the growing scoliotic spine were measured to investigate coronal plane deformity progression with growth. Sequential MRI data in this project showed complex patterns of deformity progression. Changes to the wedging of individual vertebrae and discs may occur in patients who have no increase in Cobb angle measure; the Cobb method alone may be insufficient to capture the complex mechanisms of deformity progression.

Haemodialysis work environment contributors to job satisfaction and stress: A sequential mixed methods study

Background: Haemodialysis nurses form long term relationships with patients in a technologically complex work environment. Previous studies have highlighted that haemodialysis nurses face stressors related to the nature of their work and also their work environments leading to reported high levels of burnout. Using Kanters (1997) Structural Empowerment Theory as a guiding framework, the aim of this study was to explore the factors contributing to satisfaction with the work environment, job satisfaction, job stress and burnout in haemodialysis nurses. Methods: Using a sequential mixed-methods design, the first phase involved an on-line survey comprising demographic and work characteristics, Brisbane Practice Environment Measure (B-PEM), Index of Work Satisfaction(IWS), Nursing Stress Scale (NSS) and the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI). The second phase involved conducting eight semi-structured interviews with data thematically analyzed. Results: From the 417 nurses surveyed the majority were female (90.9 %), aged over 41 years of age (74.3 %), and 47.4 % had worked in haemodialysis for more than 10 years. Overall the work environment was perceived positively and there was a moderate level of job satisfaction. However levels of stress and emotional exhaustion (burnout) were high. Two themes, ability to care and feeling successful as a nurse, provided clarity to the level of job satisfaction found in phase 1. While two further themes, patients as quasi-family and intense working teams, explained why working as a haemodialysis nurse was both satisfying and stressful. Conclusions: Nurse managers can use these results to identify issues being experienced by haemodialysis nurses working in the unit they are supervising.

Early stopping by using stochastic curtailment in a three-arm sequential trial

Summary. Interim analysis is important in a large clinical trial for ethical and cost considerations. Sometimes, an interim analysis needs to be performed at an earlier than planned time point. In that case, methods using stochastic curtailment are useful in examining the data for early stopping while controlling the inflation of type I and type II errors. We consider a three-arm randomized study of treatments to reduce perioperative blood loss following major surgery. Owing to slow accrual, an unplanned interim analysis was required by the study team to determine whether the study should be continued. We distinguish two different cases: when all treatments are under direct comparison and when one of the treatments is a control. We used simulations to study the operating characteristics of five different stochastic curtailment methods. We also considered the influence of timing of the interim analyses on the type I error and power of the test. We found that the type I error and power between the different methods can be quite different. The analysis for the perioperative blood loss trial was carried out at approximately a quarter of the planned sample size. We found that there is little evidence that the active treatments are better than a placebo and recommended closure of the trial.

Sequential allocation in clinical trials

Suppose two treatments with binary responses are available for patients with some disease and that each patient will receive one of the two treatments. In this paper we consider the interests of patients both within and outside a trial using a Bayesian bandit approach and conclude that equal allocation is not appropriate for either group of patients. It is suggested that Gittins indices should be used (using an approach called dynamic discounting by choosing the discount rate based on the number of future patients in the trial) if the disease is rare, and the least failures rule if the disease is common. Some analytical and simulation results are provided.

A Fuzzy Approximation Scheme for Sequential Learning in Pattern Recognition

An adaptive learning scheme, based on a fuzzy approximation to the gradient descent method for training a pattern classifier using unlabeled samples, is described. The objective function defined for the fuzzy ISODATA clustering procedure is used as the loss function for computing the gradient. Learning is based on simultaneous fuzzy decisionmaking and estimation. It uses conditional fuzzy measures on unlabeled samples. An exponential membership function is assumed for each class, and the parameters constituting these membership functions are estimated, using the gradient, in a recursive fashion. The induced possibility of occurrence of each class is useful for estimation and is computed using 1) the membership of the new sample in that class and 2) the previously computed average possibility of occurrence of the same class. An inductive entropy measure is defined in terms of induced possibility distribution to measure the extent of learning. The method is illustrated with relevant examples.

A sequential analysis of "nú" and "núna" in Icelandic conversation

This thesis is an empirical study of how two words in Icelandic, "nú" and "núna", are used in contemporary Icelandic conversation. My aims in this study are, first, to explain the differences between the temporal functions of "nú" and "núna", and, second, to describe the non-temporal functions of "nú". In the analysis, a focus is placed on comparing the sequential placement of the two words, on their syntactical distribution, and on their prosodic realization. The empirical data comprise 14 hours and 11 minutes of naturally occurring conversation recorded between 1996 and 2003. The selected conversations represent a wide range of interactional contexts including informal dinner parties, institutional and non-institutional telephone conversations, radio programs for teenagers, phone-in programs, and, finally, a political debate on television. The theoretical and methodological framework is interactional linguistics, which can be described as linguistically oriented conversation analysis (CA). A comparison of "nú" and "núna" shows that the two words have different syntactic distributions. "Nú" has a clear tendency to occur in the front field, before the finite verb, while "núna" typically occurs in the end field, after the object. It is argued that this syntactic difference reflects a functional difference between "nú" and "núna". A sequential analysis of "núna" shows that the word refers to an unspecified period of time which includes the utterance time as well as some time in the past and in the future. This temporal relation is referred to as reference time. "Nú", by contrast, is mainly used in three different environments: a) in temporal comparisons, 2) in transitions, and 3) when the speaker is taking an affective stance. The non-temporal functions of "nú" are divided into three categories: a) "nú" as a tone particle, 2) "nú" as an utterance particle, and 3) "nú" as a dialogue particle. "Nú" as a tone particle is syntactically integrated and can occur in two syntactic positions: pre-verbally and post-verbally. I argue that these instances are employed in utterances in which a speaker is foregrounding information or marking it as particularly important. The study shows that, although these instances are typically prosodically non-prominent and unstressed, they are in some cases delivered with stress and with a higher pitch than the surrounding talk. "Nú" as an utterance particle occurs turn-initially and is syntactically non-integrated. By using "nú", speakers show continuity between turns and link new turns to prior ones. These instances initiate either continuations by the same speaker or new turns after speaker shifts. "Nú" as a dialogue particle occurs as a turn of its own. The study shows that these instances register informings in prior turns as unexpected or as a departure from the normal state of affairs. "Nú" as a dialogue particle is often delivered with a prolonged vowel and a recognizable intonation contour. A comparative sequential and prosodic analysis shows that in these cases there is a correlation between the function of "nú" and the intonation contour by which it is delivered. Finally, I argue that despite the many functions of "nú", all the instances can be said to have a common denominator, which is to display attention towards the present moment and the utterances which are produced prior or after the production of "nú". Instead of anchoring the utterances in external time or reference time, these instances position the utterance in discourse internal time, or discourse time.

Estimating winter crop area across seasons and regions using time-sequential MODIS imagery.

The wheat grain industry is Australia's second largest agricultural export commodity. There is an increasing demand for accurate, objective and near real-time crop production information by industry. The advent of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite platform has augmented the capability of satellite-based applications to capture reflectance over large areas at acceptable pixel scale, cost and accuracy. The use of multi-temporal MODIS-enhanced vegetation index (EVI) imagery to determine crop area was investigated in this article. Here the rigour of the harmonic analysis of time-series (HANTS) and early-season metric approaches was assessed when extrapolating over the entire Queensland (QLD) cropping region for the 2005 and 2006 seasons. Early-season crop area estimates, at least 4 months before harvest, produced high accuracy at pixel and regional scales with percent errors of -8.6% and -26% for the 2005 and 2006 seasons, respectively. In discriminating among crops at pixel and regional scale, the HANTS approach showed high accuracy. The errors for specific area estimates for wheat, barley and chickpea were 9.9%, -5.2% and 10.9% (for 2005) and -2.8%, -78% and 64% (for 2006), respectively. Area estimates of total winter crop, wheat, barley and chickpea resulted in coefficient of determination (R(2)) values of 0.92, 0.89, 0.82 and 0.52, when contrasted against the actual shire-scale data. A significantly high coefficient of determination (0.87) was achieved for total winter crop area estimates in August across all shires for the 2006 season. Furthermore, the HANTS approach showed high accuracy in discriminating cropping area from non-cropping area and highlighted the need for accurate and up-to-date land use maps. The extrapolability of these approaches to determine total and specific winter crop area estimates, well before flowering, showed good utility across larger areas and seasons. Hence, it is envisaged that this technology might be transferable to different regions across Australia.

Wheat biomass and yield increased when populations of the root-lesion nematode (Pratylenchus thornei) were reduced through sequential rotation of partially resistant winter and summer crops

The root-lesion nematode, Pratylenchus thornei, can reduce wheat yields by >50%. Although this nematode has a broad host range, crop rotation can be an effective tool for its management if the host status of crops and cultivars is known. The summer crops grown in the northern grain region of Australia are poorly characterised for their resistance to P. thornei and their role in crop sequencing to improve wheat yields. In a 4-year field experiment, we prepared plots with high or low populations of P. thornei by growing susceptible wheat or partially resistant canaryseed (Phalaris canariensis); after an 11-month, weed-free fallow, several cultivars of eight summer crops were grown. Following another 15-month, weed-free fallow, P. thornei-intolerant wheat cv. Strzelecki was grown. Populations of P. thornei were determined to 150 cm soil depth throughout the experiment. When two partially resistant crops were grown in succession, e.g. canaryseed followed by panicum (Setaria italica), P. thornei populations were <739/kg soil and subsequent wheat yields were 3245 kg/ha. In contrast, after two susceptible crops, e.g. wheat followed by soybean, P. thornei populations were 10 850/kg soil and subsequent wheat yields were just 1383 kg/ha. Regression analysis showed a linear, negative response of wheat biomass and grain yield with increasing P. thornei populations and a predicted loss of 77% for biomass and 62% for grain yield. The best predictor of wheat yield loss was P. thornei populations at 0-90 cm soil depth. Crop rotation can be used to reduce P. thornei populations and increase wheat yield, with greatest gains being made following two partially resistant crops grown sequentially.

Statistical significance of sequential firing patterns in multi-neuronal spike trains

Sequential firings with fixed time delays are frequently observed in simultaneous recordings from multiple neurons. Such temporal patterns are potentially indicative of underlying microcircuits and it is important to know when a repeatedly occurring pattern is statistically significant. These sequences are typically identified through correlation counts. In this paper we present a method for assessing the significance of such correlations. We specify the null hypothesis in terms of a bound on the conditional probabilities that characterize the influence of one neuron on another. This method of testing significance is more general than the currently available methods since under our null hypothesis we do not assume that the spiking processes of different neurons are independent. The structure of our null hypothesis also allows us to rank order the detected patterns. We demonstrate our method on simulated spike trains.

Mining Sequential Data – in Search of Segmental Structures

Segmentation is a data mining technique yielding simplified representations of sequences of ordered points. A sequence is divided into some number of homogeneous blocks, and all points within a segment are described by a single value. The focus in this thesis is on piecewise-constant segments, where the most likely description for each segment and the most likely segmentation into some number of blocks can be computed efficiently. Representing sequences as segmentations is useful in, e.g., storage and indexing tasks in sequence databases, and segmentation can be used as a tool in learning about the structure of a given sequence. The discussion in this thesis begins with basic questions related to segmentation analysis, such as choosing the number of segments, and evaluating the obtained segmentations. Standard model selection techniques are shown to perform well for the sequence segmentation task. Segmentation evaluation is proposed with respect to a known segmentation structure. Applying segmentation on certain features of a sequence is shown to yield segmentations that are significantly close to the known underlying structure. Two extensions to the basic segmentation framework are introduced: unimodal segmentation and basis segmentation. The former is concerned with segmentations where the segment descriptions first increase and then decrease, and the latter with the interplay between different dimensions and segments in the sequence. These problems are formally defined and algorithms for solving them are provided and analyzed. Practical applications for segmentation techniques include time series and data stream analysis, text analysis, and biological sequence analysis. In this thesis segmentation applications are demonstrated in analyzing genomic sequences.