Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options

Price movements in many commodity markets exhibit significant seasonal patterns. However, given an observed futures price, a deterministic seasonal component at the price level is not relevant for the pricing of commodity options. In contrast, this is not true for the seasonal pattern observed in the volatility of the commodity price. Analyzing an extensive sample of soybean, corn, heating oil and natural gas options, we find that seasonality in volatility is an important aspect to consider when valuing these contracts. The inclusion of an appropriate seasonality adjustment significantly reduces pricing errors in these markets and yields more improvement in valuation accuracy than increasing the number of stochastic factors.

Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal

Precipitation indices are commonly used as climate change indicators. Considering four Climate Variability and Predictability-recommended indices, this study assesses possible changes in their spatial patterns over Portugal under future climatic conditions. Precipitation data from the regional climate model Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling–Climate version of the Local Model (CCLM) ensemble simulations with ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 boundary conditions are used for this purpose. For recent–past, medians and probability density functions of the CCLM-based indices are validated against station-based and gridded observational dataset from ENSEMBLES-based (gridded daily precipitation data provided by the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project) indices. It is demonstrated that the model is able to realistically reproduce not only precipitation but also the corresponding extreme indices. Climate change projections for 2071–2100 (A1B and B1 SRES scenarios) reveal significant decreases in total precipitation, particularly in autumn over northwestern and southern Portugal, though changes exhibit distinct local and seasonal patterns and are typically stronger for A1B than for B1. The increase in winter precipitation over northeastern Portugal in A1B is the most important exception to the overall drying trend. Contributions of extreme precipitation events to total precipitation are also expected to increase, mainly in winter and spring over northeastern Portugal. Strong projected increases in the dry spell lengths in autumn and spring are also noteworthy, giving evidence for an extension of the dry season from summer to spring and autumn. Although no coupling analysis is undertaken, these changes are qualitatively related to modifications in the large-scale circulation over the Euro-Atlantic area, more specifically to shifts in the position of the Azores High and associated changes in the large-scale pressure gradient over the area.

Toward vicarious calibration of microwave remote-sensing satellites in arid environments

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite marks the commencement of dedicated global surface soil moisture missions, and the first mission to make passive microwave observations at L-band. On-orbit calibration is an essential part of the instrument calibration strategy, but on-board beam-filling targets are not practical for such large apertures. Therefore, areas to serve as vicarious calibration targets need to be identified. Such sites can only be identified through field experiments including both in situ and airborne measurements. For this purpose, two field experiments were performed in central Australia. Three areas are studied as follows: 1) Lake Eyre, a typically dry salt lake; 2) Wirrangula Hill, with sparse vegetation and a dense cover of surface rock; and 3) Simpson Desert, characterized by dry sand dunes. Of those sites, only Wirrangula Hill and the Simpson Desert are found to be potentially suitable targets, as they have a spatial variation in brightness temperatures of <4 K under normal conditions. However, some limitations are observed for the Simpson Desert, where a bias of 15 K in vertical and 20 K in horizontal polarization exists between model predictions and observations, suggesting a lack of understanding of the underlying physics in this environment. Subsequent comparison with model predictions indicates a SMOS bias of 5 K in vertical and 11 K in horizontal polarization, and an unbiased root mean square difference of 10 K in both polarizations for Wirrangula Hill. Most importantly, the SMOS observations show that the brightness temperature evolution is dominated by regular seasonal patterns and that precipitation events have only little impact.

The climate of Europe 6000 years ago

Palaeoclimates across Europe for 6000 y BP were estimated from pollen data using the modern pollen analogue technique constrained with lake-level data. The constraint consists of restricting the set of modern pollen samples considered as analogues of the fossil samples to those locations where the implied change in annual precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P–E) is consistent with the regional change in moisture balance as indicated by lakes. An artificial neural network was used for the spatial interpolation of lake-level changes to the pollen sites, and for mapping palaeoclimate anomalies. The climate variables reconstructed were mean temperature of the coldest month (T c ), growing degree days above 5  °C (GDD), moisture availability expressed as the ratio of actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration (α), and P–E. The constraint improved the spatial coherency of the reconstructed palaeoclimate anomalies, especially for P–E. The reconstructions indicate clear spatial and seasonal patterns of Holocene climate change, which can provide a quantitative benchmark for the evaluation of palaeoclimate model simulations. Winter temperatures (T c ) were 1–3 K greater than present in the far N and NE of Europe, but 2–4 K less than present in the Mediterranean region. Summer warmth (GDD) was greater than present in NW Europe (by 400–800 K day at the highest elevations) and in the Alps, but >400 K day less than present at lower elevations in S Europe. P–E was 50–250 mm less than present in NW Europe and the Alps, but α was 10–15% greater than present in S Europe and P–E was 50–200 mm greater than present in S and E Europe.

A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes

1. The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. 2. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). 3. The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial. 4. Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.

Avaliação da genotoxicidade induzida por emissões de veículos automotores - Ctenomys minutus como organismo bioindicador

Existe um número crescente de componentes químicos lançados ao meio ambiente, muitos dos quais são capazes de induzir efeitos danosos adversos à saúde de animais e humanos, representando uma causa importante de preocupação por seus possíveis efeitos a longo prazo. O impacto ecológico e os riscos a saúde dos organismos associados com a exposição a poluentes ambientais são extremamente difíceis de se avaliar devido a muitos desses componentes serem parte de misturas complexas. Os gases produzidos pelos motores dos veículos à combustão contém diversos poluentes sabidamente genotóxicos, como óxidos de nitrogênio (NOX), monóxido de carbono (CO), óxidos de enxofre (SOx), hidrocarbonetos (HC) e seus derivados, bem como particulados, e metais (cádmio, cromo, cobre, níquel, vanádio, zinco e chumbo). Todos esses compostos isolados ou associados a outros elementos são tóxicos ou de efeito danoso aos organismos, de forma não totalmente esclarecida. Este estudo teve como objetivo verificar o possível efeito genotóxico das emissões dos automóveis em roedor nativo Ctenomys minutus cronicamente exposto, através do Ensaio Cometa (EC), comparando os resultados com o Teste de Micronúcleos (MN), ambos em sangue periférico. Levando em consideração alguns fatores que pudessem influenciar os resultados dos testes de genotoxicidade, este trabalho ainda teve como objetivos: identificar a presença de alguns agentes envolvidos na poluição gerada pelos veículos; verificar possíveis diferenças sazonais, como temperatura e ventos; e se existe influência da idade e sexo dos roedores. Os C. minutus (Octodontidae-Rodentia), foram capturados em dois campos diferentes, ambos ao lado da estrada RS/030, na cidade de Osório, Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (RS): (a) Amaral, e (b) Weber. Animais para controle externo foram capturados no Campo Maribo à cerca de 3 km de distância de outra estrada (RS/389-Osório/RS), conseqüentemente afastada das emissões dos veículos. No final do período desse estudo, foram capturados 123 animais (73 fêmeas e 50 machos).

Preços de etanol no Brasil : uma análise espacial

A introdução da tecnologia flex-fuel resultou em um expressivo aumento do consumo de etanol no Brasil, tornando-o principal concorrente da gasolina nos postos de combustíveis. Apesar disso, diferentemente da gasolina, a oferta de etanol sofre com a sazonalidade da safra de cana de açúcar, mostrando-se insuficiente para atender a demanda, incorrendo em altos preços nos períodos de entressafra. Além destes fatores, a expansão do uso de etanol como combustível enfrenta a ausência de políticas públicas claras que incentivem o mercado, assim como uma estrutura logística que permita o escoamento do produto a baixos custos. O presente trabalho buscou demonstrar como se comportam espacialmente os preços de etanol e gasolina no Brasil. Observou-se que os preços de etanol combustível ao consumidor foram menores quanto mais próximos das regiões produtoras e maiores conforme se distanciam, até se tornarem desvantajosos para o consumidor de alguns estados na medida em que a paridade de preços frente à gasolina supera o limite técnico de 70%. Observou-se também que a sazonalidade distinta das duas regiões produtoras do país define padrões sazonais de áreas que predominantemente consomem etanol ou gasolina, conforme a paridade de 70%. Este resultado indica que a necessidade de estoques e fluxos de produtos depende não apenas das condições logísticas, mas também da combinação da sazonalidade das regiões produtoras. Por fim, intencionou-se entender como e em que proporção os preços ao produtor do estado de São Paulo relacionam-se com os preços ao consumidor de outras regiões do país. Este estudo demonstrou que a velocidade de transmissão dos preços não está relacionada com a distância e que fatores logísticos e características específicas de cada mercado são os principais determinantes do comportamento dos preços ao consumidor em relação às alterações nos preços ao produtor do estado de São Paulo.

Ecologia alimentar de aves insetívoras de um fragmento de mata decídua do extremo norte da Mata Atlântica

The diet study of birds has contributed historically as a model for use to understanding ecological patterns and strategies used by several other groups of vertebrates, which are observed in season patterns and temporal availability of resources, and other. This study has as objective generate information concerning the diet of insectivorous birds during rainy season and dry season, as well as analyze Index food importance, niche overlap, niche breadth, electivity, and seasonal availability of prey. The study was conducted in a fragment of about 270 ha (center coordinates and 5 º 53'S 35 ° 23'W). The sampling of birds occurred between March 2008 and December 2009 in three pre-established trails. Catches of birds were performed using 10 mist nets placed in line, where each trails was sampled once a month. Samples of pellets were obtained by means of tartar emetic. Sampling of availability of prey occurred between February 2009 to December 2009. We used two methods of sampling (pitfall traps and Shake cloths). We captured 269 individuals of 21 species of insectivorous birds. We collected 4116 invertebrates of which 3259 in the rainy season and 857 in the dry season. We obtained 174 samples stomach, where 10 species were exclusively insectivorous diet, nine fed on insect/plant material, an insect/plant material/vertebrate and one for insect/vertebrate. During the rainy season was observing difference between the consumption of items with higher food importance. The Coleoptera was item with higher food importance (73%), followed by Formicidae (7%) and Araneae (6%). During the dry season, no difference was found difference between the consumption of items with higher food importance. The Coleoptera was item with higher food importance (34%), followed by seeds (29%) and Formicidae (18%). The highest levels of niche overlap occurred during the rainy season, while the dry season was characterized by high levels of niche 11 segregation. This indicates that the local insectivorous birds community was structured differently between periods. No was found correlation between the values of niche breadth to the mean weight of the body size. We observed seasonal patterns in prey availability, with the peak availability of invertebrates observed seasonal patterns in rainy season. The insectivorous birds selected the same species richness during both periods, showing a specialized diet. Thamnophilus pelzelni was the only species that had their diet influenced by seasonality. Regarding the overall diet of insectivorous birds, observed a high consumption of prey, whose food availability caused the birds could invest and increase their food resources

Abundance and distribution of juvenile pink shrimps Farfantepenaeus spp. in a mangrove estuary and adjacent bay on the northern shore of São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Variações interanuais na fenologia de uma comunidade arbórea de floresta semidecídua no sudeste do Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The fish zonation of the Itanha,m river basin in the Atlantic Forest of southeast Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fenologia de espécies arbóreas em floresta de planície litorânea do sudeste do Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Species diversity and seasonality of free-living ticks (Acari : Ixodidae) in the natural habitat of wild Marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) in Southeastern Brazil

This study evaluated the presence and seasonal activity of free-living ticks in remaining marsh areas by the Parana river, in Brazil. Eight field trips (once per season) for collection of ticks were performed during 2 years. Using CO2 traps, dragging, and visual inspection of vegetation, five free-living tick species were collected, in the following order of abundance: Amblyomma cajennense, Amblyom\ma dubitatum, Amblyomma triste, Amblyomma coelebs, and Amblyomma nodosum. The seasonal pattern of A. cajennense was characterized by the highest peaks for adult ticks in the summer/spring months, for nymphs in the winter and for larvae in the autumn and winter. A. dubitatum and A. triste presented similar seasonal patterns characterized by peaks of adult ticks in the autumn. Nymphs of A. dubitatum peaked in the winter of the first year and in the winter/spring of the second year. A. triste was the only species to be collected in significantly higher numbers in the marsh than in surrounding drier areas such as forest patches. Among domestic animals living close the marsh areas, horses were infested by Anocentor nitens, A. cajennense, and Boophilus microplus, bovines were infested solely by B. microplus, and dogs were infested by Rhipicephalus sanguineus. Adults of A. triste showed to be well adapted to the marsh environment. This result, at least partially, explains local previous observations on the association of A. triste with marsh deer, as this vertebrate host inhabits mainly the marsh area. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.