Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences

Networks are ubiquitous in natural, technological and social systems. They are of increasing relevance for improved understanding and control of infectious diseases of plants, animals and humans, given the interconnectedness of today's world. Recent modelling work on disease development in complex networks shows: the relative rapidity of pathogen spread in scale-free compared with random networks, unless there is high local clustering; the theoretical absence of an epidemic threshold in scale-free networks of infinite size, which implies that diseases with low infection rates can spread in them, but the emergence of a threshold when realistic features are added to networks (e.g. finite size, household structure or deactivation of links); and the influence on epidemic dynamics of asymmetrical interactions. Models suggest that control of pathogens spreading in scale-free networks should focus on highly connected individuals rather than on mass random immunization. A growing number of empirical applications of network theory in human medicine and animal disease ecology confirm the potential of the approach, and suggest that network thinking could also benefit plant epidemiology and forest pathology, particularly in human-modified pathosystems linked by commercial transport of plant and disease propagules. Potential consequences for the study and management of plant and tree diseases are discussed.

MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF COMPLEX NETWORKS THROUGH THE PATH-STAR TRANSFORMATION AND OPTIMAL MULTIVARIATE METHODS

The topology of real-world complex networks, such as in transportation and communication, is always changing with time. Such changes can arise not only as a natural consequence of their growth, but also due to major modi. cations in their intrinsic organization. For instance, the network of transportation routes between cities and towns ( hence locations) of a given country undergo a major change with the progressive implementation of commercial air transportation. While the locations could be originally interconnected through highways ( paths, giving rise to geographical networks), transportation between those sites progressively shifted or was complemented by air transportation, with scale free characteristics. In the present work we introduce the path-star transformation ( in its uniform and preferential versions) as a means to model such network transformations where paths give rise to stars of connectivity. It is also shown, through optimal multivariate statistical methods (i.e. canonical projections and maximum likelihood classification) that while the US highways network adheres closely to a geographical network model, its path-star transformation yields a network whose topological properties closely resembles those of the respective airport transportation network.

Sensitivity of complex networks measurements

Complex networks obtained from real-world networks are often characterized by incompleteness and noise, consequences of imperfect sampling as well as artifacts in the acquisition process. Because the characterization, analysis and modeling of complex systems underlain by complex networks are critically affected by the quality and completeness of the respective initial structures, it becomes imperative to devise methodologies for identifying and quantifying the effects of the sampling on the network structure. One way to evaluate these effects is through an analysis of the sensitivity of complex network measurements to perturbations in the topology of the network. In this paper, measurement sensibility is quantified in terms of the relative entropy of the respective distributions. Three particularly important kinds of progressive perturbations to the network are considered, namely, edge suppression, addition and rewiring. The measurements allowing the best balance of stability (smaller sensitivity to perturbations) and discriminability (separation between different network topologies) are identified with respect to each type of perturbation. Such an analysis includes eight different measurements applied on six different complex networks models and three real-world networks. This approach allows one to choose the appropriate measurements in order to obtain accurate results for networks where sampling bias cannot be avoided-a very frequent situation in research on complex networks.

Border trees of complex networks

The comprehensive characterization of the structure of complex networks is essential to understand the dynamical processes which guide their evolution. The discovery of the scale-free distribution and the small-world properties of real networks were fundamental to stimulate more realistic models and to understand important dynamical processes related to network growth. However, the properties of the network borders (nodes with degree equal to 1), one of its most fragile parts, remained little investigated and understood. The border nodes may be involved in the evolution of structures such as geographical networks. Here we analyze the border trees of complex networks, which are defined as the subgraphs without cycles connected to the remainder of the network (containing cycles) and terminating into border nodes. In addition to describing an algorithm for identification of such tree subgraphs, we also consider how their topological properties can be quantified in terms of their depth and number of leaves. We investigate the properties of border trees for several theoretical models as well as real-world networks. Among the obtained results, we found that more than half of the nodes of some real-world networks belong to the border trees. A power-law with cut-off was observed for the distribution of the depth and number of leaves of the border trees. An analysis of the local role of the nodes in the border trees was also performed.

Estimating complex cortical networks via surface recordings-A critical note

We discuss potential caveats when estimating topologies of 3D brain networks from surface recordings. It is virtually impossible to record activity from all single neurons in the brain and one has to rely on techniques that measure average activity at sparsely located (non-invasive) recording sites Effects of this spatial sampling in relation to structural network measures like centrality and assortativity were analyzed using multivariate classifiers A simplified model of 3D brain connectivity incorporating both short- and long-range connections served for testing. To mimic M/EEG recordings we sampled this model via non-overlapping regions and weighted nodes and connections according to their proximity to the recording sites We used various complex network models for reference and tried to classify sampled versions of the ""brain-like"" network as one of these archetypes It was found that sampled networks may substantially deviate in topology from the respective original networks for small sample sizes For experimental studies this may imply that surface recordings can yield network structures that might not agree with its generating 3D network. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved

Integration of a regional GPS network within ITRF using precise point positioning

GPS precise point positioning (PPP) can provide high precision 3-D coordinates. Combined pseudorange and carrier phase observables, precise ephemeris and satellite clock corrections, together with data from dual frequency receivers, are the key factors for providing such levels of precision (few centimeters). In general, results obtained from PPP are referenced to an arbitrary reference frame, realized from a previous free network adjustment, in which satellite state vectors, station coordinates and other biases are estimated together. In order to obtain consistent results, the coordinates have to be transformed to the relevant reference frame and the appropriate daily transformation parameters must be available. Furthermore, the coordinates have to be mapped to a chosen reference epoch. If a velocity field is not available, an appropriated model, such as NNR-NUVEL-IA, has to be used. The quality of the results provided by this approach was evaluated using data from the Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring of the Global Positioning System (RBMC), which was processed using GIPSY-OASIS 11 software. The results obtained were compared to SIRGAS 1995.4 and ITRF2000, and reached precision better than 2cm. A description of the fundamentals of the PPP approach and its application in the integration of regional GPS networks with ITRF is the main purpose of this paper.

Dinâmica e estrutura de redes complexas no modelo de afinidade

In this work we elaborate and discuss a Complex Network model which presents connectivity scale free probability distribution (power-law degree distribution). In order to do that, we modify the rule of the preferential attachment of the Bianconi-Barabasi model, including a factor which represents the similarity of the sites. The term that corresponds to this similarity is called the affinity, and is obtained by the modulus of the difference between the fitness (or quality) of the sites. This variation in the preferential attachment generates very interesting results, by instance the time evolution of the connectivity, which follows a power-law distribution ki / ( t t0 )fi, where fi indicates the rate to the site gain connections. Certainly this depends on the affinity with other sites. Besides, we will show by numerical simulations results for the average path length and for the clustering coefficient

Física estatística aplicada a sistemas sociais através do estudo de redes complexas

In this work a study of social networks based on analysis of family names is presented. A basic approach to the mathematical formalism of graphs is developed and then main theoretical models for complex networks are presented aiming to support the analysis of surnames networks models. These, in turn, are worked so as to be drawn leading quantities, such as aggregation coefficient, minimum average path length and connectivity distribution. Based on these quantities, it can be stated that surnames networks are an example of complex network, showing important features such as preferential attachment and small-world character

Aplicação de modelos de agentes e redes complexas na caracterização e estudo da interação entre insetos sociais, com enfoque em formigas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Discriminating Different Classes of Biological Networks by Analyzing the Graphs Spectra Distribution

The brain's structural and functional systems, protein-protein interaction, and gene networks are examples of biological systems that share some features of complex networks, such as highly connected nodes, modularity, and small-world topology. Recent studies indicate that some pathologies present topological network alterations relative to norms seen in the general population. Therefore, methods to discriminate the processes that generate the different classes of networks (e. g., normal and disease) might be crucial for the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of the disease. It is known that several topological properties of a network (graph) can be described by the distribution of the spectrum of its adjacency matrix. Moreover, large networks generated by the same random process have the same spectrum distribution, allowing us to use it as a "fingerprint". Based on this relationship, we introduce and propose the entropy of a graph spectrum to measure the "uncertainty" of a random graph and the Kullback-Leibler and Jensen-Shannon divergences between graph spectra to compare networks. We also introduce general methods for model selection and network model parameter estimation, as well as a statistical procedure to test the nullity of divergence between two classes of complex networks. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed methods by applying them to (1) protein-protein interaction networks of different species and (2) on networks derived from children diagnosed with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and typically developing children. We conclude that scale-free networks best describe all the protein-protein interactions. Also, we show that our proposed measures succeeded in the identification of topological changes in the network while other commonly used measures (number of edges, clustering coefficient, average path length) failed.

Analisi di grafi su architetture a memoria distribuita

Questo lavoro di tesi tratta il tema delle reti complesse, mostrando i principali modelli di rete complessa quali: il modello Random, il modello Small-World ed il modello Scale-free; si introdurranno alcune metriche usate per descrivere le reti complesse quali la Degree centrality, la Closeness centrality e la Betweenness centrality; si descriveranno i problemi da tenere in considerazione durante la definizione e l’implementazione di algoritmi su grafi; i modelli di calcolo su cui progettare gli algoritmi per risolvere i problemi su grafi; un’analisi prestazionale degli algoritmi proposti per calcolare i valori di Beweenness centrality su grafi di medio-grandi dimensioni. Parte di questo lavoro di tesi è consistito nello sviluppo di LANA, LArge-scale Network Analyzer, un software che permette il calcolo e l’analisi di varie metriche di centralità su grafo.

Reti di partecipazione fra società di capitale in Italia: presenza di topologie caratterizzate da distribuzioni power law

Quando la probabilità di misurare un particolare valore di una certa quantità varia inversamente come potenza di tale valore, il quantitativo è detto come seguente una power-law, conosciuta anche come legge di Zipf o distribuzione di Pareto. Obiettivo di questa tesi sarà principalmente quello di verificare se il campione esteso di imprese segue la power-law (e se sì, in che limiti). A tale fine si configureranno i dati in un formato di rete monomodale, della quale si studieranno alcune macro-proprietà di struttura a livllo complessivo e con riferimento alle componenti (i singoli subnet distinti) di maggior dimensione. Successivamente si compiranno alcuni approfondimenti sulla struttura fine di alcuni subnet, essenzialmente rivolti ad evidenziare la potenza di unapproccio network-based, anche al fine di rivelare rilevanti proprietà nascoste del sistema economico soggiacente, sempre, ovviamente, nei limiti della modellizzazione adottata. In sintesi, ciò che questo lavoro intende ottenere è lo sviluppo di un approccio alternativo al trattamento dei big data a componente relazionale intrinseca (in questo caso le partecipazioni di capitale), verso la loro conversione in "big knowledge": da un insieme di dati cognitivamente inaccessibili, attraverso la strutturazione dell'informazione in modalità di rete, giungere ad una conoscenza sufficientemente chiara e giustificata.

Editorial

In fact, much of the attraction of network theory initially stemmed from the fact that many networks seem to exhibit some sort of universality, as most of them belong to one of three classes: random, scale-free and small-world networks. Structural properties have been shown to translate into different important properties of a given system, including efficiency, speed of information processing, vulnerability to various forms of stress, and robustness. For example, scale-free and random topologies were shown to be...

Análisis y modelización de la dinámica emergente durante el proceso de difusión de información en las redes sociales de internet

Durante la actividad diaria, la sociedad actual interactúa constantemente por medio de dispositivos electrónicos y servicios de telecomunicaciones, tales como el teléfono, correo electrónico, transacciones bancarias o redes sociales de Internet. Sin saberlo, masivamente dejamos rastros de nuestra actividad en las bases de datos de empresas proveedoras de servicios. Estas nuevas fuentes de datos tienen las dimensiones necesarias para que se puedan observar patrones de comportamiento humano a grandes escalas. Como resultado, ha surgido una reciente explosión sin precedentes de estudios de sistemas sociales, dirigidos por el análisis de datos y procesos computacionales. En esta tesis desarrollamos métodos computacionales y matemáticos para analizar sistemas sociales por medio del estudio combinado de datos derivados de la actividad humana y la teoría de redes complejas. Nuestro objetivo es caracterizar y entender los sistemas emergentes de interacciones sociales en los nuevos espacios tecnológicos, tales como la red social Twitter y la telefonía móvil. Analizamos los sistemas por medio de la construcción de redes complejas y series temporales, estudiando su estructura, funcionamiento y evolución en el tiempo. También, investigamos la naturaleza de los patrones observados por medio de los mecanismos que rigen las interacciones entre individuos, así como medimos el impacto de eventos críticos en el comportamiento del sistema. Para ello, hemos propuesto modelos que explican las estructuras globales y la dinámica emergente con que fluye la información en el sistema. Para los estudios de la red social Twitter, hemos basado nuestros análisis en conversaciones puntuales, tales como protestas políticas, grandes acontecimientos o procesos electorales. A partir de los mensajes de las conversaciones, identificamos a los usuarios que participan y construimos redes de interacciones entre los mismos. Específicamente, construimos una red para representar quién recibe los mensajes de quién y otra red para representar quién propaga los mensajes de quién. En general, hemos encontrado que estas estructuras tienen propiedades complejas, tales como crecimiento explosivo y distribuciones de grado libres de escala. En base a la topología de estas redes, hemos indentificado tres tipos de usuarios que determinan el flujo de información según su actividad e influencia. Para medir la influencia de los usuarios en las conversaciones, hemos introducido una nueva medida llamada eficiencia de usuario. La eficiencia se define como el número de retransmisiones obtenidas por mensaje enviado, y mide los efectos que tienen los esfuerzos individuales sobre la reacción colectiva. Hemos observado que la distribución de esta propiedad es ubicua en varias conversaciones de Twitter, sin importar sus dimensiones ni contextos. Con lo cual, sugerimos que existe universalidad en la relación entre esfuerzos individuales y reacciones colectivas en Twitter. Para explicar los factores que determinan la emergencia de la distribución de eficiencia, hemos desarrollado un modelo computacional que simula la propagación de mensajes en la red social de Twitter, basado en el mecanismo de cascadas independientes. Este modelo nos permite medir el efecto que tienen sobre la distribución de eficiencia, tanto la topología de la red social subyacente, como la forma en que los usuarios envían mensajes. Los resultados indican que la emergencia de un grupo selecto de usuarios altamente eficientes depende de la heterogeneidad de la red subyacente y no del comportamiento individual. Por otro lado, hemos desarrollado técnicas para inferir el grado de polarización política en redes sociales. Proponemos una metodología para estimar opiniones en redes sociales y medir el grado de polarización en las opiniones obtenidas. Hemos diseñado un modelo donde estudiamos el efecto que tiene la opinión de un pequeño grupo de usuarios influyentes, llamado élite, sobre las opiniones de la mayoría de usuarios. El modelo da como resultado una distribución de opiniones sobre la cual medimos el grado de polarización. Aplicamos nuestra metodología para medir la polarización en redes de difusión de mensajes, durante una conversación en Twitter de una sociedad políticamente polarizada. Los resultados obtenidos presentan una alta correspondencia con los datos offline. Con este estudio, hemos demostrado que la metodología propuesta es capaz de determinar diferentes grados de polarización dependiendo de la estructura de la red. Finalmente, hemos estudiado el comportamiento humano a partir de datos de telefonía móvil. Por una parte, hemos caracterizado el impacto que tienen desastres naturales, como innundaciones, sobre el comportamiento colectivo. Encontramos que los patrones de comunicación se alteran de forma abrupta en las áreas afectadas por la catástofre. Con lo cual, demostramos que se podría medir el impacto en la región casi en tiempo real y sin necesidad de desplegar esfuerzos en el terreno. Por otra parte, hemos estudiado los patrones de actividad y movilidad humana para caracterizar las interacciones entre regiones de un país en desarrollo. Encontramos que las redes de llamadas y trayectorias humanas tienen estructuras de comunidades asociadas a regiones y centros urbanos. En resumen, hemos mostrado que es posible entender procesos sociales complejos por medio del análisis de datos de actividad humana y la teoría de redes complejas. A lo largo de la tesis, hemos comprobado que fenómenos sociales como la influencia, polarización política o reacción a eventos críticos quedan reflejados en los patrones estructurales y dinámicos que presentan la redes construidas a partir de datos de conversaciones en redes sociales de Internet o telefonía móvil. ABSTRACT During daily routines, we are constantly interacting with electronic devices and telecommunication services. Unconsciously, we are massively leaving traces of our activity in the service providers’ databases. These new data sources have the dimensions required to enable the observation of human behavioral patterns at large scales. As a result, there has been an unprecedented explosion of data-driven social research. In this thesis, we develop computational and mathematical methods to analyze social systems by means of the combined study of human activity data and the theory of complex networks. Our goal is to characterize and understand the emergent systems from human interactions on the new technological spaces, such as the online social network Twitter and mobile phones. We analyze systems by means of the construction of complex networks and temporal series, studying their structure, functioning and temporal evolution. We also investigate on the nature of the observed patterns, by means of the mechanisms that rule the interactions among individuals, as well as on the impact of critical events on the system’s behavior. For this purpose, we have proposed models that explain the global structures and the emergent dynamics of information flow in the system. In the studies of the online social network Twitter, we have based our analysis on specific conversations, such as political protests, important announcements and electoral processes. From the messages related to the conversations, we identify the participant users and build networks of interactions with them. We specifically build one network to represent whoreceives- whose-messages and another to represent who-propagates-whose-messages. In general, we have found that these structures have complex properties, such as explosive growth and scale-free degree distributions. Based on the topological properties of these networks, we have identified three types of user behavior that determine the information flow dynamics due to their influence. In order to measure the users’ influence on the conversations, we have introduced a new measure called user efficiency. It is defined as the number of retransmissions obtained by message posted, and it measures the effects of the individual activity on the collective reacixtions. We have observed that the probability distribution of this property is ubiquitous across several Twitter conversation, regardlessly of their dimension or social context. Therefore, we suggest that there is a universal behavior in the relationship between individual efforts and collective reactions on Twitter. In order to explain the different factors that determine the user efficiency distribution, we have developed a computational model to simulate the diffusion of messages on Twitter, based on the mechanism of independent cascades. This model, allows us to measure the impact on the emergent efficiency distribution of the underlying network topology, as well as the way that users post messages. The results indicate that the emergence of an exclusive group of highly efficient users depends upon the heterogeneity of the underlying network instead of the individual behavior. Moreover, we have also developed techniques to infer the degree of polarization in social networks. We propose a methodology to estimate opinions in social networks and to measure the degree of polarization in the obtained opinions. We have designed a model to study the effects of the opinions of a small group of influential users, called elite, on the opinions of the majority of users. The model results in an opinions distribution to which we measure the degree of polarization. We apply our methodology to measure the polarization on graphs from the messages diffusion process, during a conversation on Twitter from a polarized society. The results are in very good agreement with offline and contextual data. With this study, we have shown that our methodology is capable of detecting several degrees of polarization depending on the structure of the networks. Finally, we have also inferred the human behavior from mobile phones’ data. On the one hand, we have characterized the impact of natural disasters, like flooding, on the collective behavior. We found that the communication patterns are abruptly altered in the areas affected by the catastrophe. Therefore, we demonstrate that we could measure the impact of the disaster on the region, almost in real-time and without needing to deploy further efforts. On the other hand, we have studied human activity and mobility patterns in order to characterize regional interactions on a developing country. We found that the calls and trajectories networks present community structure associated to regional and urban areas. In summary, we have shown that it is possible to understand complex social processes by means of analyzing human activity data and the theory of complex networks. Along the thesis, we have demonstrated that social phenomena, like influence, polarization and reaction to critical events, are reflected in the structural and dynamical patterns of the networks constructed from data regarding conversations on online social networks and mobile phones.

Accelerating, hyperaccelerating, and decelerating networks

Many growing networks possess accelerating statistics where the number of links added with each new node is an increasing function of network size so the total number of links increases faster than linearly with network size. In particular, biological networks can display a quadratic growth in regulator number with genome size even while remaining sparsely connected. These features are mutually incompatible in standard treatments of network theory which typically require that every new network node possesses at least one connection. To model sparsely connected networks, we generalize existing approaches and add each new node with a probabilistic number of links to generate either accelerating, hyperaccelerating, or even decelerating network statistics in different regimes. Under preferential attachment for example, slowly accelerating networks display stationary scale-free statistics relatively independent of network size while more rapidly accelerating networks display a transition from scale-free to exponential statistics with network growth. Such transitions explain, for instance, the evolutionary record of single-celled organisms which display strict size and complexity limits.