Robust evaluation of fixed-event forecast rationality

In this paper we introduce a new testing procedure for evaluating the rationality of fixed-event forecasts based on a pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. The procedure is designed to be robust to departures in the normality assumption. A model is introduced to show that such departures are likely when forecasters experience a credibility loss when they make large changes to their forecasts. The test is illustrated using monthly fixed-event forecasts produced by four UK institutions. Use of the robust test leads to the conclusion that certain forecasts are rational while use of the Gaussian-based test implies that certain forecasts are irrational. The difference in the results is due to the nature of the underlying data. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The role of location in knowledge creation and diffusion: evidence of centripetal and centrifugal forces in the City of London financial services agglomeration

In this paper we report on a major empirical study of centripetal and centrifugal forces in the City of London financial services agglomeration. The study sheds light on (1) the manner and magnitude of firm interaction in the agglomeration; (2) the characteristics of the agglomeration that aid the competitiveness of incumbent firms; and (3) the problems associated with agglomeration. In addressing these issues, we use the data to (1) test emerging theory that explains the high productivity and innovation of agglomerations in terms of their ability to generate and diffuse knowledge; and (2) evaluate the ‘end of geography’ thesis.

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea surface temperatures. This work quantifies a systematic bias in model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. Applying the methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975–2014.

The impact of location and type on the performance of Low-Voltage network connected Battery Energy Storage Systems

This paper assesses the impact of the location and configuration of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) on Low-Voltage (LV) feeders. BESS are now being deployed on LV networks by Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) as an alternative to conventional reinforcement (e.g. upgrading cables and transformers) in response to increased electricity demand from new technologies such as electric vehicles. By storing energy during periods of low demand and then releasing that energy at times of high demand, the peak demand of a given LV substation on the grid can be reduced therefore mitigating or at least delaying the need for replacement and upgrade. However, existing research into this application of BESS tends to evaluate the aggregated impact of such systems at the substation level and does not systematically consider the impact of the location and configuration of BESS on the voltage profiles, losses and utilisation within a given feeder. In this paper, four configurations of BESS are considered: single-phase, unlinked three-phase, linked three-phase without storage for phase-balancing only, and linked three-phase with storage. These four configurations are then assessed based on models of two real LV networks. In each case, the impact of the BESS is systematically evaluated at every node in the LV network using Matlab linked with OpenDSS. The location and configuration of a BESS is shown to be critical when seeking the best overall network impact or when considering specific impacts on voltage, losses, or utilisation separately. Furthermore, the paper also demonstrates that phase-balancing without energy storage can provide much of the gains on unbalanced networks compared to systems with energy storage.

Gene optimization leads to robust expression of human respiratory syncytial virus nucleoprotein and phosphoprotein in human cells and induction of humoral immunity in mice

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is the major pathogen leading to respiratory disease in infants and neonates worldwide. An effective vaccine has not yet been developed against this virus, despite considerable efforts in basic and clinical research. HRSV replication is independent of the nuclear RNA processing constraints, since the virus genes are adapted to the cytoplasmic transcription, a process performed by the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. This study shows that meaningful nuclear RNA polymerase II dependent expression of the HRSV nucleoprotein (N) and phosphoprotein (F) proteins can only be achieved with the optimization of their genes, and that the intracellular localization of N and P proteins changes when they are expressed out of the virus replication context. Immunization tests performed in mice resulted in the induction of humoral immunity using the optimized genes. This result was not observed for the non-optimized genes. In conclusion, optimization is a valuable tool for improving expression of HRSV genes in DNA vaccines. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the influence of location of osseointegrated implants associated with mandibular removable partial dentures

Purpose: The aim of this research was to assess, by means of, the bi-dimensional finite element method, the best implant location in the alveolar edge, through stress distribution and support structure displacement of a distal extension removable partial denture associated with an osseointegrated implant of 10.0 x .75 mm, acting as abutment for the denture base.Methods and Materials: Five models in sagittal cut were used to represent: model A-hemi arch containing natural tooth 33 and the distal alveolar edge; model B-similar to model A, but with a conventional removable partial denture to replace the absent teeth; model C (MC)-similar to the previous one, with an implant in the distal region of the edge under the denture base; model D-similar to MC, with the implant in the central region of the edge; model E-similar to MC, with an implant in the mesial region of the edge. With the aid of the finite element program ANSYS 8.0, the models were loaded with strictly vertical forces of 50 N on each cusp tip. Displacement and von Mises Maps were plotted for visualization of results.Results: The introduction of implant diminished the tendency of intrusion of the removable partial denture in all situations. The maximum stress was observed on implant in all situations. Approximating implant in direction of support teeth was benefit for stress distribution.Conclusion: Model D presented the lowest value for maximum tendency to displacement when compared with those found in the other models; model E demonstrated better relief with regard to demand from the abutment tooth; locating the implant near of the abutment tooth influenced positively the distribution of stresses on the analyzed structures.

Double Higgs production at the LHC as a robust test of little Higgs models

We analyze double Higgs boson production at the LHC in the context of Little Higgs models. In double Higgs production, the diagrams involved are directly related to those that cause the cancellation of the quadratic divergence of the Higgs self-energy, so this mode provides a robust prediction for this class of models. We find that in extensions of this model with the inclusion of a so-called T-parity, there is a significant enhancement in the cross sections as compared to the Standard Model. © 2006 American Institute of Physics.

Analysis of mandibular position using different methods of location.

There has been much discussion regarding the ideal position of the condyle in the mandibular fossa. Although the centric relation position (CR) is used as a reference, some authors do not believe that it is physiologic. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate in a group of asymptomatic individuals the position of the condyle in the mandibular fossa at maximum intercuspation (MI), with a occlusal splint and with a Lucia jig between the teeth. It was analyzed by means of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), transcranial radiography imaging and analysis of horizontal axis of rotation from casts mounted on an articulator. The results showed that even if patients had mandibular displacement in positions of CR, habitual maximum intercuspation and with the occlusal splint, confirmed by means of the analysis of the horizontal axis of rotation, the images showed no statistically significant differences among condylar positions. It can therefore be concluded that the positions analyzed were similar and that transcranial radiography seems to be a reliable method for analyzing condylar position.

Urban Air Pollutants are Significant Risk Factors for Asthma and Pneumonia in Children: The Influence of Location on the Measurement of Pollutants

Background: Air pollution is associated with a substantial burden on human health; however, the most important pollutants may vary with location. Proper monitoring is necessary to determine the effect of these pollutants on respiratory health. Objectives: This study was designed to evaluate the role of outdoor, indoor and personal exposure to combustion-related pollutants NO2 and O-3 on respiratory health of children in a non-affluent urban area of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Levels of NO2 and O-3 were continuously measured in outdoor and indoor air, as well as personal exposure, for 30 days using passive measurement monitors. Respiratory health was assessed with a Brazilian version of the ISAAC questionnaire. Results: Complete data were available from 64 children, aged 6-10 years. Respiratory morbidity was high, with 43 (67.2%) reporting having had wheezing at any time, 27 (42.2%) wheezing in the last month, 17 (26.6%) asthma at any time and 21(32.8%) pneumonia at any time. Correlations between levels of NO2 and O-3 measured in the three locations evaluated were poor. Levels of NO2 in indoor air and personal exposure to O-3 were independently associated with asthma (both cases P=.02), pneumonia (O-3, P=.02) and wheezing at any time (both cases P<.01). No associations were seen between outdoor NO2 and O-3 and respiratory health. Conclusions: Exposure to higher levels of NO2 and O-3 was associated with increased risk for asthma and pneumonia in children. Nonetheless, the place where the pollutants are measured influences the results. The measurements taken in indoor and personal exposure were the most accurate. (C) 2012 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L. All rights reserved.

Methodological improvement of 3D fluoroscopic analysis for the robust quantification of 3D kinematics of human joints

3D video-fluoroscopy is an accurate but cumbersome technique to estimate natural or prosthetic human joint kinematics. This dissertation proposes innovative methodologies to improve the 3D fluoroscopic analysis reliability and usability. Being based on direct radiographic imaging of the joint, and avoiding soft tissue artefact that limits the accuracy of skin marker based techniques, the fluoroscopic analysis has a potential accuracy of the order of mm/deg or better. It can provide fundamental informations for clinical and methodological applications, but, notwithstanding the number of methodological protocols proposed in the literature, time consuming user interaction is exploited to obtain consistent results. The user-dependency prevented a reliable quantification of the actual accuracy and precision of the methods, and, consequently, slowed down the translation to the clinical practice. The objective of the present work was to speed up this process introducing methodological improvements in the analysis. In the thesis, the fluoroscopic analysis was characterized in depth, in order to evaluate its pros and cons, and to provide reliable solutions to overcome its limitations. To this aim, an analytical approach was followed. The major sources of error were isolated with in-silico preliminary studies as: (a) geometric distortion and calibration errors, (b) 2D images and 3D models resolutions, (c) incorrect contour extraction, (d) bone model symmetries, (e) optimization algorithm limitations, (f) user errors. The effect of each criticality was quantified, and verified with an in-vivo preliminary study on the elbow joint. The dominant source of error was identified in the limited extent of the convergence domain for the local optimization algorithms, which forced the user to manually specify the starting pose for the estimating process. To solve this problem, two different approaches were followed: to increase the optimal pose convergence basin, the local approach used sequential alignments of the 6 degrees of freedom in order of sensitivity, or a geometrical feature-based estimation of the initial conditions for the optimization; the global approach used an unsupervised memetic algorithm to optimally explore the search domain. The performances of the technique were evaluated with a series of in-silico studies and validated in-vitro with a phantom based comparison with a radiostereometric gold-standard. The accuracy of the method is joint-dependent, and for the intact knee joint, the new unsupervised algorithm guaranteed a maximum error lower than 0.5 mm for in-plane translations, 10 mm for out-of-plane translation, and of 3 deg for rotations in a mono-planar setup; and lower than 0.5 mm for translations and 1 deg for rotations in a bi-planar setups. The bi-planar setup is best suited when accurate results are needed, such as for methodological research studies. The mono-planar analysis may be enough for clinical application when the analysis time and cost may be an issue. A further reduction of the user interaction was obtained for prosthetic joints kinematics. A mixed region-growing and level-set segmentation method was proposed and halved the analysis time, delegating the computational burden to the machine. In-silico and in-vivo studies demonstrated that the reliability of the new semiautomatic method was comparable to a user defined manual gold-standard. The improved fluoroscopic analysis was finally applied to a first in-vivo methodological study on the foot kinematics. Preliminary evaluations showed that the presented methodology represents a feasible gold-standard for the validation of skin marker based foot kinematics protocols.

Evaluation of location and dimensions of lingual foramina using limited cone-beam computed tomography

To assess retrospectively the frequency and location of mandibular lingual foramina and their bony canals with limited cone-beam computed tomography.

Robust expression of CCR3 as a single basophil selection marker in flow cytometry

Basophil activation tests (BAT) rely on different combinations of basophil selection and activation markers. Whereas activation markers, especially CD63, are widely validated, the most suitable and robust marker for basophil selection is still a matter of debate.